Category: Elections

Oh…Yeah…Wyoming Holds a Republican Caucus

No Comments

The Wyoming Caucus is this Saturday.

It’s been ignored, but since Huckabee has won Iowa, then Romney will go full court press there, and the press and the Republican establishment, which sees Huckabee as a hick from Hope, Arkansas, will make it significant.

If you are not aware of the irony, you’re Terry Schiavo.

Then again, maybe Freddie Thompson will try to run there.

There are 2 days, maybe someone will give a speech there.

Iowa Update 9:51 pm

No Comments

Called for Obama by MSNBC, CNN and NY Times.

The only real race now is the race for 2nd in the Dem caucuses, with Edwards having a slight lead.

So, Once again, my predictions were wrong.

I did say that I thought that Edwards was done when he accepted public financing.

Still…I’ve got a right to be surprised by Freddie Thompson coming in third.

Paul’s surprising showing, he nearly broke two digits, is not a surprise. He has a small number of intensely devoted supporters, which caucuses reward.

Lawsuit in Mississippi Over Special Election for Senate

No Comments

Lott resigned on December 18, so as to avoid the new ethics rules in his new lobbying job.

Mississippi law, Mississippi Code 23-15-855, requires that a special election occur within 90 days of a vacancy.

There is an exception, but only if a vacancy occurs in a year there shall be a general state or congressional election. (emphasis mine).

Since Lott could not wait an additional 11 days, he needed to collect his fat fees, the law is clear: a special election has to occur within 90 days.

Of course Haley Barbour, like any good Republican has decided that the law does not apply to him when it is inconvenient, so state Attorney General Jim Hood had taken him to court.

Here is the section of code:

SEC. 23-15-855. Elections to fill vacancies in office of U.S. Senator; interim appointments by Governor.

(1) If a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from Mississippi by death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor shall, within ten (10) days after receiving official notice of such vacancy, issue his proclamation for an election to be held in the state to elect a Senator to fill such unexpired term as may remain, provided the unexpired term is more than twelve (12) months and the election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor’s proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator, and the vacancy shall be filled by appointment as hereinafter provided.

(2) In case of a vacancy in the office of United States Senator, the Governor may appoint a Senator to fill such vacancy temporarily, and if the United States Senate be in session at the time the vacancy occurs the Governor shall appoint a Senator within ten (10) days after receiving official notice thereof, and the Senator so appointed shall serve until his successor is elected and commissioned as provided for in subsection (1) of this section, provided that such unexpired term as he may be appointed to fill shall be for a longer time than one (1) year, but if for a shorter time than one (1) year he shall serve for the full time of the unexpired term and no special election shall be called by the Governor but his successor shall be elected at the regular election.

SOURCES: Derived from 1972 Code Sec. 23-5-229 [Codes, Hemingway’s 1917, Sec. 6835; 1930, Sec. 6279; 1942, Sec. 3308; Laws, 1914, ch. 148] and Sec. 23-5-231 [Codes, Hemingway’s 1917, Sec. 6836; 1930, Sec. 6280; 1942, Sec. 3309; Laws, 1914, ch. 148], both Repealed by Laws, 1986, ch. 495, Sec. 335; En, Laws, 1986, ch. 495, Sec. 260, eff from and after January 1, 1987.

Hood’s suit is here. (pdf)

Tom Lantos Retiring

No Comments

The reason given is esophageal cancer, but doubtless the challenge of Jackie Speier in the primary, where she was leading by 30% in the polls, had a lot to do with that too.

It comes down to the fact that he was a very strong hawk on Iraq, and any Iraq Hawk deserves to lose their seat.

FWIW, part of his statement is very disingenuous.

It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a Member of Congress. I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country.

Of course, Leon Blum (France), Bruno Kreisky (Austria), both of whom were holocaust survivors and not in America, and, of course, Menachem Begin in Israel were all PMs and Holocaust survivors. (H/t The Reality Based Community)

This kind of ahistorical American exceptionalism is de regeur in US politics, and dangerous, because it leads to things like invading Iraq.

Election Update

No Comments

Let’s start with simple not insane (Blago is another post, thank you very much).

It appears that Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet has been chosen the replacement for Ken Salazar in Colorado and we have reports that Governor Paterson is leaning toward Caroline Kennedy.

No opinion on the first bit, but I still think that everyone is going to discover that Kennedy will be the 2nd coming of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend for the 2010 elections, and the Republicans will take that seat.

There is also a difference between winning an election because of your lineage, and getting an appointment because of your lineage, and while I find both distasteful, my Congressman is Paul Sarbanes, I find the latter much more profoundly disturbing.

In Minnesota, which is not crazy central, because that is Springfield, Illinois, we have had some interesting developments:

First is that the ‘Phants are threatening a filibuster against a provisional seating of Franken, despite the fact that they did this very same thing for Landrieu in the late 1990s, and they are using the Rod Blagojevich precedent “set” by Harry Reid as justification. (Thanks, Harry).

Also, the Coleman camp has pretty much ceded defeat in the current round, TheHill.com – Coleman team virtually guarantees lawsuit

Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-Minn.) attorneys said Friday that there will be a legal challenge to the recount in the senator’s reelection race, and conceded that they are almost certainly the ones that will bring it.

“I think that an election challenge here is inevitable,” said Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, adding that there is “no doubt” in his mind.

Knaak then acknowledged that the actions of the state canvassing board will likely leave Democrat Al Franken ahead. Franken currently leads by 49 votes out of nearly 3 million cast.

That’s a concession that Franken got more votes, and they are going to try for a Bush 2008 move, because unlike Florida, Minnesota is doing this in an honest way.

In the mean time, Coleman is filing, or threatening to file, lawsuits at the drop of a hat, calling the process “Invalid And Unreliable,” unless they include about 650 additional ballots from Coleman strongholds. See also here and here.

The Minnesota Supreme Court has declined to take action on at least one of Coleman’s claims, though they have made it clear that this is because it’s premature, and not on the merits of the case, so that can hear it later.

The assessment at TPM Election Central, that this would likely prevent a resolution for weeks or months, is accurate, but that is a feature, not a bug, for the ‘Phants.

My Predictions On Iowa

No Comments

Republicans:

  1. Huckabee
  2. Romney
  3. Everyone else

I think that Huckabee and Romney are the only two who will break the double digits, and Huckabee’s supporters are more than enthusiastic. What the heck are the Romney supporters going for anyway, that hair?

Democrats

  1. Edwards
  2. Clinton
  3. Obama
  4. Dodd
  5. Everyone else.

I’m much less sure of these, but here goes:

Edwards and Clinton will be very close, with the fact that Edwards is the 2nd choice of almost all the minor candidates giving him more than a boost than Hillary’s supporters being more politically tied in.

The fact that Edwards has spent the past 3 years building a network will help too.

Obama will come in firmly in 3rd. He’s gots “lots of young new voters”, all of whom will get completly owned in the complex Iowa Democratic Caucus Structure.

Dodd, with his filibuster in the senate floor, will, I think, end up a firm 4th place, though there is a possibility of him taking 3rd.

Given my record, I think trhat I’m something like 0 for 23 on everything, not just politics, I’d love to hear your predictions.

Add more details.

Cuyahoga County, Ohio County to Switch to Optical-Scan

No Comments

I don’t generally buy into the conspiracy theories about touch screen voting, the group most involved in the issue in Maryland, TrueVote Maryland, is overrun by Greens determined to get nothing done, so that they can blame the Democrats.

I think that the machines are insecure, unreliable, and they don’t provide an adequite voting record, but the reason it’s good news that the Ohio county containing Cleveland is moving to optical scan is because I’ve used the touch screen machine, and they suck wet farts from dead pigeons.

They are buggy, the break down a lot, and they make for much longer lines, discouraging voting.

As to access for the blind, there are simple inexpensive solutions (basically a terminal with earphones and an integrated printer).

Kansas GOP Chairman Admits to Illegal Voter Suppression

No Comments

So not shocked.

When Nixon decided to appeal to the southern racists, he eagerly embraced their Jim Crow voting strategies too.

However, I am a bit surprised that Kris Kobach would brag about it in public:

To date, the Kansas GOP has identified and caged more voters in the last 11 months than the previous two years!

There is a primer to this illegal, the RNC has been under a consent decree for some time, and quite frankly UnAmerican technique here.

I guarantee you, BTW, a lot of the voters “caged” are serving in the military overseas.

Democrats Try Fiscal Sanity in Campaigns

No Comments

The Democratic Presidential candidates are finally moving toward a flat fee structure with their consultants, as opposed to paying a percentage of the media buy.

The Republicans have been doing this for years, and it removes a perverse incentive for the consultants to recommend large media buys, since it pads their fees.

Of interest is this statement:

In interviews, aides said Ms. Clinton, of New York, and Mr. Edwards, of North Carolina, had negotiated flat fees with their top consultants. And Mr. Obama, of Illinois, has capped what his consultants can earn, which will convert their more traditional percentage deal into a flat fee once his ad spending passes a certain threshold, his aides say.

As on healthcare, the putative “candidate of change” is taking the more timid and status quo route.

Hopefully, this is a first step in putting a better leash on Democratic political consultants who frequently spend too much time as the face of the campaign to the press.

Political consultants should neither be seen nor heard until after the general election.

A Must Read Book: How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative

No Comments

Well, the continuing unfolding scandal of the 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming scandal has provided quite a lot of insight into how Republicans work, and How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative, by Allen Raymond, is one of the products of the scandal.

As a result of his being fingered as the fall guy for the phone jamming, he was guilty as hell (served 3 months), but he was a foot soldier sacrificed in an attempt to protect the higher ups.
First, we have a McClatchy review of an advance copy of the book, which notes that James Tobin, he former regional director for both the RNC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (convicted and now on appeal), made 22 calls to the White House *cough* Rove *cough* in the 24 hours surrounding the phone jamming.

As soon as the investigation started, Tobin and Charles McGee, the executive director of the New Hampshire GOP, denied all knowledge, and basically pretended not to know Raymond. In the days following the election, when Raymond “when he phoned Tobin after Sununu’s 19,000-vote election victory to tell him that a Manchester, N.H., police officer was looking into the scheme, Tobin responded, ‘I don’t know what you’re talking about.'”

Also of interest is his story of the related at TPMmuckraker:

To set the scene: Raymond got a call in 2000* from two former colleagues in New Jersey who ran a consulting shop called Jamestown Associates. They were working for Dick Zimmer, who was running against Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ), the incumbent, and they were pulling out all the stops. (Ed. Note: This post originally stated that this happened in 2002 — that was my mistake, not Raymond’s.)

They’d already succeeded in getting a Green Party candidate on the ballot to drain liberal votes from Holt (a favorite GOP trick). And they had already put Raymond’s firm to work calling Green-oriented households and urging them to support the Green candidate.

But what came next was “even better”:

[Tom Blakely from Jamestown Associates] called me up and asked, “How do you guys find voice talent?”

“Well, I’ve got a whole catalog of different voices on CDs. I’ve got ‘single Northeastern female,’ I’ve got ‘Southern belle’ — what are you looking for?”

“We’re targeting Democrats of Eastern European descent using a surname select and geopolitical filter.”

“Oh,” I said, quickly doing the polarizing-voter math in my head. “How about ‘angry black man’?”

“Yeah, that sounds good. What’s his voice sound like?”

So I cued up one particular actor’s CD on my computer and put the phone to the speaker. The track I played was one in which the actor was deliberately playing up a street gang character.

After listening for a few seconds, Blakely said, “That’s the guy!”

So we had the actor record a spot over the telephone saying, “I’m calling as a Democrat, asking you to vote for the Democratic nominee. We need your vote for Holt.”

I’m not saying that all Eastern European whites are racists, but, no matter where or when an election is held, there is a always a cultural divide that you can rely on. The message was “I’m ghetto black calling you, racist Ukrainian guy, and scaring the crap out of you because you probably think that if you don’t vote for the Democrat I’m going to come to your house and take care of some business.”

The calls were extremely highly targeted, household by household, no message ever left on an answering machine. We wanted the message heard only by people whose reaction would be “I’m not voting for Holt because he uses scary black men to call my house.”

We made calls to Democratic union households supporting Zimmer, taped by actors putting on thick Spanish accents, figuring union workers were the voters who felt most threatened by immigration. The objective was to get them to throw up their hands and stay home on Election Day. We were just forcing those people to make a decision that was true to who they really were. If you want to question someone’s character, look to the people who stayed home because of those calls.

Remember — they were Democrats; they were supposed to be the tolerant ones.

Zimmer lost the election by 481 votes and the Green Party candidate picked up 2 percent in the polls.

Seriously, if it weren’t for bigotry the Republicans would barely outpoll the Monster Raving Loony Party.

BTW, you have to love this comment by Raymond, “As for his three months in a Pennsylvania prison, he wrote: ‘After 10 full years inside the GOP, 90 days among honest criminals wasn’t really any great ordeal.'”

2002 New Hampshire Phone Jamming, DoJ Dragged Its Feet

No Comments

In addition to reports that the Bush Department of Justice dragged its feet in investigating the 2002 New Hampshire election day phone jamming, which crippled the Democratic party GOTV efforts, we now have one of the perps dropping a dime on his former partners in crime at the Republican party.

A former GOP political operative who ran an illegal election-day scheme to jam the phone lines of New Hampshire Democrats during the state’s tight 2002 U.S. Senate election said in a new book and an interview that he believes the scandal reaches higher into the Republican Party.

Allen Raymond of Bethesda, Md., whose book Simon & Schuster will publish next month, also accused the Republican Party of trying to hang all the blame for a scandal on him as part of an “old-school cover-up.”

Raymond’s book, “How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative,” offers a raw, inside glimpse of the phone scandal as it unraveled and of a ruthless world in which political operatives seek to win at all costs.

McClatchy obtained an advance copy of the book.

I believe that we will be seeing a lot more of this.

With Democratic control of the congress, the opportunities for rewards for keeping one’s mouth closed have diminished, and if the Dems take the White House, the possibility for a pardon vanishes.

We will see a lot more people ratting out former friends, and writing books.

BTW, I love his last line, “As for his three months in a Pennsylvania prison, he wrote: “After 10 full years inside the GOP, 90 days among honest criminals wasn’t really any great ordeal.“

Jacob Zuma Defeats Thabo Mbeki As Head of the ANC

No Comments

Basically, this means that he will be elected South African president. While there is a lot of hand wringing about how Zuma won’t be as “investor friendly” as Mbeki, the fact that there was a contested leadership election in the ANC, and that the incumbent lost in a free and fair vote is a good thing.

This is good…it’s called democracy…

I think that its clear that Zuma’s mandate is to improve the lives of South Africans who live in poverty, and as such, members of the foreign and domestic investor class are likely to have to pay a bit more in taxes and fees, but this is a good thing, not a threat to democracy.

He got more votes than the other guy, and it appears that the exhumation of old corruption charges is more about an anti-democratic effort of Mbeki to stay in power than anything else.