Category: employment

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And the Award for Lame Losers Goes to ……

You know that recovery that we seem to be having, well expect it to stop, suddenly, in just a few weeks.

Why, because somehow or other the House Democrats managed to lose a vote on extending unemployment benefits extension, meaning that roughly 5 million Americans will lose their unemployment benefits on November 30.

That’s 5 million Americans who will be unable to make car or house payments of buy much of anything at all.

Figure about $1.5 billion pulled out of the economy a week, or a little bit over ½% of GDP that would just go away.

Not only did they not manage to pass the bill, but it was only a 3 month extension that they managed not to pass, so they failed on a lame half measure.

For some reason known only to God, they tried to pass it under a “suspension of the rules” requiring a ⅔ vote, which it failed, by 258 to 154.

OK, I do know the reason why the Democrats tried to pass this under a procedure requiring a 2/3 vote: If it passes by a simple majority, then people can make a “motion to recommit”, which could kill the bill, and would not pass, or a “motion to recommit with instructions”, where it is sent back to committee with instructions to make amendments, which doesn’t kill the bill.

The problem is that the Democratic Caucus discipline is so lax that if the Republicans try to attach something that Democrats fear might be used in a campaign, like, for example, banning felons from getting UI benefits, then many of the Democrats, fearful for being cast as soft on crime in the next election, will vote for the measure and against the party, and the country, because they have no damn guts.

Of course, the reason that the Dems lost on November 2 was because they have no damn guts, so their solution is even more gutlessness.

Cthulhu on a cruller, it’s lame.

Economics Update

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Generally, this has not been a good day for economic news.

We have seen a a spike in inventories, they rose 1.5% in September, following a 1.2% increase in August, which indicates that recent increases in manufacturing activity, which were largely driven by businesses rebuilding inventories, may now be running to the wall of weak consumer demand.

The fact that job openings fell again in September, indicating that there is simply not a an opportunity for people to find their way back into the job market, might be a part of this, as would the continued increase in personal bankruptcies.

On the brighter side, the National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index rose to a 5 month high in October.

So, the NFP Numbers Came Out Yesterday

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The Non-Farm Payroll report for October came out Friday, and it was much better than expected, growing by 151,000 jobs, much better than the forecast of 70,000 with unemployment (U-3) remaining at 9.6%, while the broader U-6* fell by 1⁄10 of a percent to 17%.

Even more significantly, it is more than the 125-150 thousand required to meet the natural increase in the workforce, meaning that at current rates, using the lower growth number, it would only take 26⅔ years for us to recover our job losses since Wall Street imploded.

By my math, this still qualifies as a jobless recovery, particularly since the total labor force has been shrinking as workers have become discouraged or otherwise left.

* “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.”

It’s Jobless Thursday

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And initial unemployment claims are back up to 457,000, with the 4-week moving average rising slightly to 566,000, continuing claims fell by 42K to 4.34 million, and emergency claims, which, by the way expire on November 30, rose by 357.7K to 5.01 million.

Total up those numbers and things are getting worse, and come November 30 they expire.

Extended unemployment insurance will likely not be renewed, because the threat of electoral punishment is gone from the Republicans, and over 5 million people lose UI benefits, which will crush consumer demand in the middle of the all-important holiday season.

So we have a cohort of 99ers who would be losing their unemployment benefits anyway, along with millions of people who will be abruptly cut off.

This is going to get very ugly very fast.

This is Unambiguously Good News

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It’s “Jobless Thursday,” and the numbers are good, with initial claims falling by 21K to 434,000, the less volatile 4-week moving average fell by 5,500 to 453,250, continuing claims fell by 122K to 4.36million, and emergency claims (those extended past 26 weeks) fell by 414K to 4.36 million.

It’s still to high for a job recovery, it needs to be somewhere south of 400K for an extended period for jobs to recover, but this is only the 2nd time in months that it was below 450,000, so perhaps we are beginning to see the beginning of a trend.

Pass the Popcorn

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A Judge in Alaska has ordered that the Fairbanks North Star Borough* personnel records of teabagger Senate candidate Joe Miller are to be released on Tuesday.

The judge set a Tuesday release date to allow an appeal to be filed on Monday:

A judge ruled Saturday that the Fairbanks North Star Borough must release personnel records of U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller.

In an unusual weekend hearing, retired Superior Court Judge Winston Burbank ruled that the public’s right to know about candidates outweighed Miller’s right to privacy.

“I hold that although Mr. Miller has a legitimate expectation of privacy in those documents, Mr. Miller’s right to privacy is indeed outweighed by the public’s significant interest in the background of a public figure who is running for the U.S. Senate,” the judge said. He noted that U.S. senator is among the highest elected offices in the nation.

Burbank ordered that nothing actually will be released until Tuesday afternoon, however, to allow for the ruling to be appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court.

Mr. Miller has been fighting this kicking and screaming, which implies that this his personnel file is packed with lots crunchy goodness.

If this is true, I would think that an appeal by Mr. Miller is likely though. All he has to do is delay the ruling by 7-8 days, and it becomes moot.

My sense is that he was not a model employee, since we have heard whispers from both the City of Fairbanks, as well as his old law firm, that they were not sad to see him go.

*A borough in Alaska is roughly equivalent to a county.

Factoid of the Day

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I would not have known, but when you think about it, it’s not surprising that over their history, banks have been a money losing enterprise:

He duly notes the key role banks had in the financial collapse and cites “one amazing statistic,” namely that “in the aggregate, banks have never made money over time.” Instead, “like the airlines, banks historically have seemingly made money hand over fist during good times, but they give it all back when the cycle turns.”

But he asks, “How many bankers suffer the same fate when it comes to their own personal financial affairs?” And the answer to that question, Dennis believes, was a major factor in setting the stage for the encompassing financial crisis we’ve recently suffered through.

The problem is that while banks have not made money over their history, bankers have, because, when the going gets tough, they get to keep their enormous paychecks of the go-go years.

If we did something simple, like saying that remuneration to officers and executives in excess of $400,000.00 a year, the President’s salary, would be subject to claims against the company which paid them for 5 years, and then partially subject to claims against a company for the next 10 years, we would find a lot more honesty and probity in the financial industry.

Economics Update

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Unemployment Claims 2008-Present

Things aren’t getting better, they are just running out of people to lay off.
H/t The Washington Independent.

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims are back in the 450K-480K “sweet” spot, with initial claims rising 13,000 to 462K, the 4 week moving average rising 2¼K to 459,000, though both continuing and emergency claims fell.

Seeing as how the number really needs to be below 300,000 for any meaningful recovery in jobs, we remain in a bad place.

In non-existent inflation land, we saw producer prices rise 0.4% in September, though that was largely on food, the core rate was 0.1%, and the price of imports fell by 0.3%, even as the trade deficit rose.

I would note here to all the free trade fetishists, we have a deflation problem in our economy right now, and most of it is being imported.

Meanwhile, the us dollar has fallen to a low for the year.

Economics Update

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Click for full size

The paradox of thrift continues

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell out of the 450K-485K sweet spot that they have been bouncing around in for most of the year. Initial claims fell by 11,000 to 445,000, better than forecast, with the 4-week moving average falling by 3,000 to 455,750, with continuing claims falling by 48,000 to 4.46 million, and emergency claims rising by 257K to 5.14 million.

So fewer people are losing work, but hiring has not picked, so overall unemployment has increased (257K – 48K – 11K = 198K more people collecting unemployment).

We also had good news on the retail front, with better than expected same store retail sales in September, though I am unclear how consumers are financing this, since wages are stagnant, and consumer credit fell in August. (See graph pr0n)

I guess that it could be that people took out their credit cards more in September, and that the conflicting figures are simply the result of month to month changes.

In Europe, both the Bank of England and the ECB held rates steady, and the BoE says that it will continue quantitative easing (printing money).

ECB bank president Jean-Claude Trichet went further full inflation idiot in statement to the press, tut-tutting other central banks easing moves, andstating that the ECB will be, “gradually phase out its non-standard liquidity measures.”

Yes, we are seeing more pronouncements from the pain caucus about austerity, and the most vocal of these folks, Tory PM David Cameron, has apparently succeeded in pushing UK house prices down by 3.6% in the month of September.

Note that I am not talking about a -3.6% annual rate, I am talking about a £6,000 drop in home prices in just that month. (!)
UK home prices -3.6% in a month (!)

A Reason to Consider Subscribing to the Washington Post

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Not a reason to actually subscribe, mind you, it’s still a cesspool of conventional thinking and bad access journalism (Hi, Bob Woodward) but the fact that the professional hack masquerading as a media critic, Howard Kurtz is leaving the Washington Post and moving to the Daily Beast, Tina Brown’s online news web site.

Well the Washington Post‘s gain is Tina Brown’s loss.

He is, after all, a guy who writes on cable news while pulling down a 6-figure income from CNN, and writes on politics while his wife pulls down a 6-figure income as a Republican political consultant.

Well, it’s a reason second source anything that you see on the Daily Beast.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and the initial jobless claims are out, initial claims down 16K to 453,000, and the less volatile 4 week moving average fell 6,250 to 458,000, a two month low, with continuing claims falling 83K to 4.46 million, and emergency claims falling 293K to 4.88 million.

Generally, the numbers are good, but still firmly in the 450-480K “sweet spot” where the numbers have lingered for most of this year.

Additionally, the revised GDP numbers have come out, and, for once, the numbers were revised up, from the truly anemic 1.6% annual rate releases last month to a (truly anemic) 1.7% annual rate.

In real estate, mortgage applications fell, despite falling rates, though the home purchase application index nosed up slightly.

In terms of the various indices out there, the Institute for Supply Management’s Chicago PMI rose in September, beating estimates.

Generally a good news day for this economy, this.

Quote of the Day

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Same as it ever was

This really does encapsulate Washington, DC, or at least the White and Federal part of the District:

When you can read an entire column by the Washington Post’s Howard Kurtz and never once feel the urge to cut out your own heart with a dull knife, you know that you no longer have the sense of outrage that is essential to reporting from our nation’s capital.

–Now former Washington, DC editor for Harpers Ken Silverstein, explaining why, though he will still write for the publication, he can no longer be their Washington Editor.

Basically, he has realized that if you don’t go native, you will go insane, and Mr. Silverstein has chosen to get out of Dodge.

He notes how little that things have changed:

I moved to Washington in 1993, when a young, new Democratic president replaced George Bush and promised to reform politics and be a transformative leader. Backed by huge majorities in Congress and with public opinion squarely in his corner, he had the opportunity to shake things up and change American politics. Instead, he and his party squandered their chance through timidity, weak leadership, a lack of any original ideas and their refusal to confront special interest groups.

Here we are seventeen years later and there’s a young, new Democratic president who replaced George Bush and promised to reform politics and be a transformative leader. Backed by huge majorities in Congress….

Well, by now you can probably guess where this is heading.

I also appreciate his observation that, “The [Obama Health Care] bill is widely unpopular, and not only because of the hyperbolic attacks on it by Republicans and Fox News. It’s unpopular because it’s a terrible piece of legislation.”

He will be working for a foundation doing long form journalism.

Go read his swan song. It’s a great piece of work.

And the Stupid Motherf%$#ers Never Even Tried to Make it a Campaign Issue

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So a measure to repeal tax subsidies to ship jobs overseas failed in the face of a Republican filibuster:

As expected, a Senate bill designed to end tax breaks for U.S. companies that move jobs and manufacturing plants overseas failed a key test vote Tuesday.

With a 53-45 vote, Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic efforts to end debate and ultimately vote on a “jobs” bill.

Top Democrats have claimed the bill would help keep American jobs from going overseas. But when it came to the test vote, four Democrats voted with Republicans to block the bill.

Here is the kicker:

The bill came out of nowhere last week and wasn’t discussed or debated, as a package, by any of the Senate’s committees. It would have given companies a break on payroll taxes for new U.S. jobs that replace positions that had been based overseas.

It’s a f%$#ing election year, and you weren’t using this as a club to beat Republicans over the head with on a daily basis for weeks?

Are these motherf%$#ers trying to lose the election?

Actually, considering the video evidence, the answer to that is probably yes.

Economics Update

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I guess that the lede here is consumer confidence, which The Conference Board reports has fallen to a 7 month low. My personal guess is that the number is low because of the news reports that the recession has been over for over a year, which is so clearly contrary to what consumers see that it depresses them.

On the other hand, manufacturing jobs are reported to be growing strongly since the beginning of the year, which is a bit of a surprise.

In real estate, and, as Calculated Risk notes, the Case-Shiller numbers are out, and they are positively schizophrenic:

From the Financial Times: US home prices slip in July

From the WSJ: Home Prices Rose in July

From CNBC: US Home Prices Slipped In July And May Stabilize Near Lows

From MarketWatch: Home price growth slows in July

From HousingWire: S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index rose 0.6% for July

Basically, some of them are reporting seasonally adjusted numbers, and some are reporting non-seasonally adjusted numbers. I would tend to go with the latter with July, since I think that the expiration of the tax credits probably overwhelmed any seasonal effects, and the composite 10 and the composite 20 numbers are a bit different, but basically it’s flat near the recent bottoms.

Finally, we have the various reports from the regional Federal reserve banks: Dallas, up slightly in September, Chicago down slightly in August, and Richmond down slightly in September.

Rat Rahm Leaving Sinking Ship Obama White House

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Jake Tapper is reporting that Rahm Emanuel will be announcing his departure from the White House in the next week or so:

Although no final decision has been made because of family considerations, ABC News has learned that White House officials are preparing for Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel to announce on Friday — as Congress adjourns for recess — that he is leaving his post to explore a run for mayor of Chicago.

White House officials expect that President Obama will also name an interim chief of staff, perhaps senior adviser Pete Rouse, at the announcement.

My thoughts, speaking from a position of complete ignorance regarding Chicago politics and a distant view of White House Kremlinology:

  • Richie Daley deciding not to run for reelection took everyone by surprise, which is why there might be a for Rahm to leave.
  • I get the feeling that Rahm may have been pushed, but it may just be people jockying for position now that they know that he is leaving.
  • He is not a shoe-in by any means, particularly if Obama is diminished by the election results. (The primary is in February)
  • This may be a part of the White House retooling its staff, there has been a lot of turnover, but the problems are pervasive enough that I would consider it to be rearranging deck chairs on the titanic. The problem is not senior staff, it is POTUS.

Still, I won’t miss him, and my condolences to the people of Chicago

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims are up again, t0 465,000, with the 4-week moving average falling yp 463,250 from 466,500, continuing claims falling by 48,000 to 4.49 million, and emergency claims rising by 208,000 to 5.17 million.

All in all, not a pretty picture, and neither are home sales, notwithstanding the press noting how much better August was than July, because up 7.6% from July means less than down 19% from August 2009.

In the business world, Blockbuster video filed for bankruptcy, which is not a surprise, it’s been expected for months, but it’s still the end of an era.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and the initial claims numbers are out, with initial claims falling to 450,000, the 4 week moving average falling to 464,750 last week’s 478,250, continuing claims falling 84,000 to 4.49 million, and emergency claims fell by over 500,000, which is all a good thing, though the story also mentions that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index missed expectations, remaining in the contractionary range, while the New York Fed’s Empire State Index fell but remained in positive territory.

In terms of other general measures, we have conflicting data, with inventories rising strongly, retail sales rising in more sedately, and the NFIB’s small business confidence rising modestly to an anemic 88, while on the other side we see industrial growth slowing in August.

Real estate, on the other hand is pretty grim in the post-tax credit days, with home repossession spiking, and CoreLogic’s home price index showing no year over year gain for the first time in five months, and home mortgage applications fell this week.

On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index came out, and while there is still little inflation in the core rate, but food and energy costs are rising more sharply, though still well below a 6% annual rate.

Obama Calls for Weak Tea, and Cedes Ground to the Right Wing

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So now, instead of trying for something that works to reduce unemployment, Obama is calling for a modest public works program, $50 Billion over 6 years, significantly less than what we are flushing down the toilet on the unnecessary F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.*

What’s more, once again, he throws a bargaining chip to the Republicans, who have shown their unwillingness to negotiate in good faith, by also proposing that the R&D tax credit be extended and made permanent.

Once again, when trying to put forward even the most modest proposal, he kneecaps himself by taking what could have been used as a lever to derive support, and handing it to his enemies so that they can use it as a cudgel against him.

Week tea, constructed to make it even weaker, once again.

*This is not meant to be a commentary on the capabilities of the F-35, simply a statement that these capabilities are simply not necessary in current of foreseeable future conflicts, and the same goes for the F-22, so please don’t make this a Raptor/Lightning II pissing contest.