I’m so going to do this one day:
Category: employment
Economics Update
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There is more scary graph pr0n at Calculated Risk
And workforce participation is the lowest since 1984
The non-farm payroll numbers came out, and, though better than expected, they really suck, with NFP falling by 54,000 and unemployment rising slightly to 9.6%, though most of that was the demobilization of the US census, and private payrolls increased by a better than expected 67,000.
Once again, the Panglossian members of the financial 4th estate cast this as unbelievably good news.
It isn’t. It’s no where near the 100-125 K new jobs needed every month just to absorb new entrants to the job market.
Things are still getting worse.
And we have more evidence that the stimulus package that has driven the economy is running out of steam with the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing index, a measure of activity in the service industry, continues to decline.
It’s still showing meager growth, but only barely, and it missed expectations.
Economics Update
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial claims fell slightly to a still awful 472,000, in the middle of the 450-485k range it has been been in, with one exception, for the past 6 months, while the less volatile 4-week moving average fell to 485,500 last week from 488,000, and continuing claims fell to 4.46 million, and the people on emergency UI fell as well.
It’s a lot of press about improvement, but this is not even treading water, this is a number in which payrolls continue to fall.
Pending home sales rose slightly in July, and beat estimates, but the market is still pretty much dead.
Economics Update
The lede has to be the ADP report showing that private employers cut 10,000 jobs in August.
Obviously, we will get the official numbers from the Feds on Friday.
On the other hand, manufacturing grew more than expected in August.
It’s kind of a mixed bag news day, with consumer spending increasing, but real incomes fell for the first time in over 6 months and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence beat estimates.
I’m not sure exactly what they are spending money on though, because car sales had the weakest August in 27 years, which would imply an aversion to big ticket purchases.
In real estate, the Case-Shiller home price index rose in June, though that’s probably more a result of the now-expired tax credit than anything else, mortgage applications rose slightly, though, unsurprisingly, more so for refinance than it did for home purchases, and construction spending was significantly lower than estimates.
In the “these are real lives that are being f%$#ed with” category, bankruptcy filings fell in August, though they still remain at a near 5 years high.
Finally, Canada’s economy slowed significantly in the 2nd quarter.
Economics Update
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial claims fell back to what seems to be its sweet-spot, 473,000, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 3250 to 486,750, and continuing claims falling by 62,000 to 4.46 million, though emergency claims, which are not counted as continuing, rose by 268,000 to 5.86 million, so we are still seeing a jobless non–recovery, with initial claims about 100,000 more than what would be required for a recovery in the job market.
In real estate, foreclosures fell, but delinquencies rose in the 2nd quarter, which likely indicates that people are still doing worse, but the various moratoria, as well as what Atrios accurately calls the, “Treasury’s predatory lending program,” aka HAMP, is pushing the problem down the road.
Oh, and the Dow is below 10K again, which means nothing in the greater scheme of things.
Shirley Sherrod to USDA: Go Pound Sand
So the US Department of Agriculture, after unceremoniously firing her on a trumped up controversy, offered a new job, the “Deputy Director Of Advocacy And Outreach,” but she declined the offer.
I’m sure that Ms Sherrod was polite and gentle in her denial, but she is not an idiot, and I think that anyone with this experience with any organization would be inclined to believe that the political appointees of the USDA are a bunch contemptible weasels who cannot be trusted.
Of course, the civil service staff of the USDA were a bunch of contemptible bigots, in the not too distant past, as Ms. Sherrod is no doubt aware, being one of the recipients of proceeds from the Pigford settlement.
An Interesting Point on Moves to Reduce the Size of the General Officer Corps
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It costs a lot, and make you lose wars
One of the areas where SecDef Gates is looking to reduce costs is reducing the level of general officers (general and admirals).
An interesting sideline to this is that history shows that the more officers, particularly general officers, that you have, the worse that your military performs:
Militaries with proportionately large numbers of field [major through colonel] and general grade officers have historically proven to be losers, not winners, in war. At its current levels, the U.S. military is among the worst.
Of course, the voice of officialdom, The Washington Post, notes that an officer’s billet only costs about a ¼ million dollars a year, noting that, “Terminating a single general’s billet might save about $200,000 a year in salary and benefits, barely a rounding error in the Pentagon’s base budget this year of $535 billion.”
This is, rather unsurprisingly, about as completely untrue as one can be without actually making a verifiable lie.
When someone becomes a general, he doesn’t spend his days playing golf waiting for a war, they get a command somewhere.
If there isn’t a command somewhere, then one is created, or the supervision of a task is upgraded from a field officer to a general officer, and the office, staff and budget are increased accordingly.
Once the office has a general officer in charge, there is a bureaucratic imperative for it to become “essential” in some way or another, so it will find things to do, and doing those things, whether needed or not, will cost money.
I would agree to cuts, but I would also suggest repealing the provision of the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980, aka “Up or Out”, which make promotions a requirement for continued service.
It creates an incentive for rank inflation, what Robert Gates calls “brass creep” in assigning roles in the services.
As to why these additional costs have not been addressed in their article, my guess is that the Post editorial board thinks that something would be missing from Sally Quinn’s cocktail parties if there were not a few generals in uniform there.
Great Google Moogly!
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It’s been too ugly for too long
H/t Calculated Risk
Remember how I said that unemployment has been stuck between about 450,000 and 480,000 initial claims a week?
Well, not any more, today’s numbers were up by 12,000 to ½ a million initial claims, with the 4 week moving average rose by 8,000 to 482,500.
Of course, since the article was written by a financial journalist, which means that they feel the need to be a cheerleader, and they are innumerate, they found someone to say that the 13 K drop, to 4.48 million, in continuing claims as, “an encouraging sign,” but later they note that the number of people on emergency benefits, “increased 260,105 to 4.75 million in the week ended July 31.” (the week prior to this one)
Let me explain this slowly for the financial journalists who might read this The people who are on continuing claims are in the 26-week window, if they go beyond that, they are no longer counter as having a continuing claim, they are counted as being on emergency benefits, so the falling number of continuing claims is not people getting jobs, it’s people being unemployed even longer.
In any case, this is really grim. The already inadequate stimulus is winding down, and job losses are once again accellerating, and we have an election in 2½ months, and if the Republicans take power, they will drive the country even further into the ditch.
Yes, a half assed stimulus, which was then watered down by the dickwads in the Senate was such a good idea.
2 Snaps Up to Senator Schumer
He just made the obvious point that the current H1B program does not serve the needs of the American people:
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) says that the H-1B program has created “multinational temp agencies” that undercut U.S. wages and discourage students from entering tech fields.
Schumer said the H-1B program has morphed into program used to hire foreign tech workers “willing to accept less pay than their American counterparts.” He spoke on the Senate floor in advance of its approval Thursday of $600 million for border security that includes an H-1B visa fee increase.
He’s right, of course. The program is not about finding people who cannot be found in the US, it’s about importing cheap labor.
The rise in the H-1B fees is perhaps the best part of the law, thought, of course, the foreign body shops are apoplectic about this, claiming that “The US is giving a very strong signal foreigners are not welcome.”
My heart bleeds borscht for them, but they should consider themselves lucky: I would set a soft cap of something like 50K a year visas, and raise the rates when the number of applications exceed this.
As an alternative, you could go with a bidding system, with something like quarterly auctions, which would raise the cost from a $2,500 fee
The new law added $2000 for firms that have more than 50% non citizen/green card workforces, which is still too low.
Economics Update (a Day Late)
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in 6 months, 484,000 claims, the highest number since February 20, well over forecasts of 465,000.
Additionally, the 4 week moving average jumped to 473,500 from 459,250 , though continuing claims fell by 18,000 to 4,452,000, though, as always, that reflects discouraged workers, as well as people going past the 26 week window.
In real estate, foreclosures rose again, and RealtyTrac is not anticipating a peak until some time in 2011, and mortgage rates fell to the4.44% (!), the lowest since Freddie Mac started its survey in 1971.
Economics Update
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Consumers are continuing to deleverage, (Thrift, Paradox of) with outstanding consumer debt falling for the 5th straight month, so people are still not spending.
On the brighter side, rail traffic increased in July YoY, though business productivity fell for the first time in 1½ years in the 2nd quarter. Additionally, this report shows that household income fell.….Not good.
It’s not surprising that the National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index fell for the 2nd straight month.
Meanwhile, the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Jolts) report showed hiring slowing in June.
Finally, despite record breaking low rates, mortgage were flat this week.
Your Gibbs Update
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So, little Bobbie Gibbs has doubled down on his tantrum, refusing to offer anything beyond that he was “frustrated”, and then he went on to basically say that the liberal party base are nothing but a bunch of helpless co%$ suckers who have no where else to go, so they will show up to vote like the pathetic losers that you think that they are:
A day after the controversy over Gibbs’ remarks was seemingly been put to rest by a quick walk-back from the press secretary, Wednesday’s briefing seems likely to reignite the debate over the White House’s relationship with liberals. But if there was nervousness over base voters not heading to the polls, Gibbs didn’t show it:
“I don’t think [liberal voters won’t show up],” he said, “because I think what’s at stake in November is too important to do that.”
The translation here is, “Neener-neener you dweebs! What are you going to do, vote for Ralph Nader.“
That‘s really going to invigorate the base.
First, what The Rude Pundit said:
Finally, f%$# you, Mr. Press Secretariat, because you should be wooing the f%$# out of us. You should be trying to get in our underwear and hand job us with a smile on your face instead of treating us like a convenient punching bag because you don’t want to offend the precious “real America” or whatever bullsh%$ phrase politicians want to use to isolate and alienate us. Why? Because we’re the ones that made sure you are the Press Secretary.
(%$# mine)
And then we have Alan Grayson saying that he should be fired, and notes that he is frequently referred to as “Bozo the spokesman.”
If there is a lesson of the past 40 years in Politics, it is that dissing your base is a way to lose elections.
If this is how the Obama administration thinks it should win elections, I have no clue how the beat McCain in 2008.
*In a 110% purely heterosexual kind of way, of course, as the General would say.
I Got Owned Yesterday
Yesterday, I noted a very funny resignation.
Well, it was a hoax, and I swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.
I got played.
I have no credibility now, but I didn’t this Monday either.
I Don’t Know if Little Bobbie Gibbs Should Resign…
But the White House press secretary certainly should go f%$# himself after this outburst:
During an interview with The Hill in his West Wing office, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs blasted liberal naysayers, whom he said would never regard anything the president did as good enough.
“I hear these people saying he’s like George Bush. Those people ought to be drug tested,” Gibbs said. “I mean, it’s crazy.”
The press secretary dismissed the “professional left” in terms very similar to those used by their opponents on the ideological right, saying, “They will be satisfied when we have Canadian healthcare and we’ve eliminated the Pentagon. That’s not reality.”
……
As a bit of fact checking, Canadian healthcare is actually a good thing, it has lower prices and better outcomes than we in the US achieve, and I can’t find anyone who supports abolishing the Pentagon, not even Dennis Kucinich, whose supporters Gibbs excoriates later in the interview.
For a senior adviser to the president, this is stupid and regrettable. For the press secretary, whose sole job is to cast administration policy in the most positive way, it is inexcusable.
This is not just beneath the behavior of a sentient being serving as press secretary, it’s beneath Dana Perino at her most addle-headed.
That being said, Paul Krugman makes a very good point, that, “What’s good for Obama is not necessarily good for his aides.” He calls it the “Principal Agent Problem,” which is economist wonk-speak for saying that people who work for someone may frequently advance their own agenda at the expense of those of their boss.
A classic case is overpaid executives who are nominally, “working for the shareholders,” when they are actually working to maximize personal gain, even at the expense of the viability of the corporation.
Obama is not really harmed by criticism from his base, but this criticism might change just who Obama listens to, so this reaction is almost certainly a reflection of his staff’s insecurities more than it is a realistic concern for Barack Obama or his agenda.
I think that Krugman sees the point clearly, but that he does miss another one: This sort of reaction is a fairly common in the Obama White House, Google, “f%$#ing retarded,” for example, and it indicates a staff that is obsessed with their own positioning at the expense of the administration and Obama’s policy agenda (whatever the f%$# that is).
So, your press secretary probably deserves to be fired, and the counter productive venom expressed by your staff indicates that the staff are not being properly managed, which says something distressing about his chief of staff.
Here’s hoping that Obama won’t hang onto Rahm the way that Bush hung onto Rumsfeld, and yeah, dumping Vilsac and Salazar might be a good idea too.
The Jet Blue Guy is Not the Best Resignation Today
You know, the one who quote by the emergency slide.
But that is far less classy, and less amusing than what one “Jenny” did.
She spent 2½ years as an assistant to one “Spencer” who apparently has a temper and bad breath, discovered that he let slip that he was keeping her around because she was a HOPA (Hot Piece Of Ass), and never intended to allow her to advance, so she turned in her resignation……
……With messages on a white board……
……On over 34 photographs……
……Which she emailed to everyone at the firm……
Brilliant
Congress Passes State Aid Bill
It would have been better if the Senate hadn’t dithered and watered this down, but this should keep a few thousand cops and teachers employed:
The US House of Representatives has passed an aid package that will provide cash-strapped states with $26bn (£16.4) for healthcare and education.
The bill, which cleared the Senate last week, is now set to be signed by President Barack Obama, three months before the mid-term elections.
The president had appealed for the passage of the legislation, while Republicans condemned it.
The House had been called back for an emergency session for the vote.
The House voted 247 to 161 in favour of the bill, which supporters say will help to save the jobs of 100,000 teachers.
The package also includes $16.1bn to extend funding for the Medicaid healthcare programme for low-income Americans.
This has been a very busy August news wise.
The NFP is Out
And Non-Farm Payroll fell by 131,000 last month, though that is because the US Census cut 143,000 temp jobs.
In the private sector, the seasonally adjusted private payrolls rose 71,000, less than the predicted 90K, and well under the 125-150K necessary to keep up with workforce growth.
Additionally, the May and June numbers were revised down by about 97K.
Why people aren’t running around with their hair on fire about this, I simply do not understand.
Summers and Geithner Rule the Roost
After being ignored for 18 months in favor of the disastrous policies of the Geithner/Summers tag team, Christina Romer is calling it quits.
The ones who understand what needs to be done leave, the incompetent stay, and the status quo remains.
Feeling mopey changey right now.
Economics Update
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose again, by 19,000 to 479,000, with four-week moving average increased by 5,250 to 458,500, and continuing claims fell by 34,000 to 4.54 million, though a lot of this may be people running out their string on normal benefits.
I would note that this number has been bouncing between 450K and 480K for a few months, and that this number is around 100,000 more than is needed for a recovery in employment.
Meanwhile, in central bank land, the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at ½%, effectively 0%, and it’s asset purchase program, aka quantitative easing, aka printing money, remains essentially unchanged.
Finally, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all time low, 4.49%. (!)
Economics Update
Well, in the “why do they do this any more” department, we have the ADP private employment survey, which predates the official US DoL figures by all of 2 days, saying that private payrolls will increase by a rather unimpressive 42 thousand.
The total figure will be much worse, of course, since the US Census is still shedding the temporary workers they hired for their 2010 enumeration.
On the GDP front, it appears that the inventory data which contributed to a large portion of recent GDP gains was wildly over optimistic.
On the other hand, the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing index rose in July rose to 54.3 from 53.8, beating expectations, in June, and mortgage applications, including purchase applications, rose again.