Category: employment

Wanker of the Day

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Little Timmy Geithner just penned an OP/Ed today, “Welcome to the Recovery,” which is remarkably clueless.

While he admits that there is still a tough row to how, his he characterization of the recovery is positively Hooveresque.

I am surprised that he did not announce that “Prosperity is just around the corner.”

He declares, “We are on a path back to growth,” and that “The economy on the road to recovery”.

I understand the desire to paint this rosily, but it is a political loser: Americans do not respond well to claims of a robust recovery when ⅙ of the workforce (U6) is unemployed.

I think that the problem here is that Geithner does not see this unemployment level as a problem.

Why else would he suggest that at a time when there are 5 job applicants for every job opening, a record, that the problem is just that American workers need training:

The share of workers who have been unemployed for six months or more is at its highest level since 1948, when the data was first recorded, and we must do more to ensure that they have the skills they need to re-enter the 21st-century economy.

This is offensive and wrong on so many levels.

As Atrios notes:

The sentence that should have been written is:

The share of workers who have been unemployed for six months or more is at its highest level since 1948, when the data was first recorded, and we must do more to ensure that they have jobs.

But obviously that’s not what they’re thinking. Unemployment is a skills mismatch problem, unemployed losers don’t “have the skills they need to re-enter the 21st-century economy.”

We’re screwed.

Anyone who thinks that the problem is a temporary dislocation of workers, as opposed to a period of catastrophic job loss should be considered to lack the skills necessary to be employed in the 21st century economy.

Fire Tim Geithner now.

Economics Data Points for Last Week

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So, GDP growth has fallen sharply, down to a 2.4% annual rate in the 2nd quarter, as compared to the anemic-for-a-meaningful-recovery 3.7% in the 1st quarter, which appears to indicate that the recovery is running out of steam.

What’s more, the base number is overly rosy to begin with, since it is driven by inventory restocking from industries that had drawn down to the bone, home builders rushing to beat the tax credit deadline, and a significant increase in government spending.

Consumer spending rose by only a 1.6% annual rate.

What’s more, initial unemployment claims remained above 450,000, at least 50K above a tepid recovery in employment.

I’m beginning to agree with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who says that employment has become a leading indicator, since it drives consumer spending.

Not Enough Bullets

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BP has given their CEO, Tony Hayward, his waking papers.

Only, he gets to stay on until October, at full pay, and he still has his millions in stock options, and in 2 years, he is eligible for a pension of £600,000 a year.

On the brighter side, he is literally being sent to Siberia, as, BP is, “Planning to nominate him as a non-executive director of its Russian joint venture, TNK-BP.”

If you are one of the hyper-rich, you are safe from the consequences of your actions, which is why these f%$#s act the way they do.

If they win, they make a sh%$ load of money, and if they lose, they are still set for life.

One note here, he will be replaced by Bob Dudley, who is an American, which just goes to show that the BP board does not get the USA.

I think that they think that an American CEO will defuse American anger at them.

They are wrong. Americans are suckers for a British accent, we love being conned by people with British accents, just look at the success that lying charlatans like Niall Ferguson, Christopher Hitchens, and Andrew Sullivan have done selling their crap as gold.

The problem here is that something bad happened, and the more people looked at BP, they saw that it is a corrupt criminal psychopathic organization, even by the standards of the oil industry.

News of the Unsurprising

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It turns out that one of the reasons that executive compensation has been skyrocketing lately is that compensation boards game the system to maximize pay for the executives, who, after all, hired them in the first place.

Imagine that.

I would remind everyone that the pot for wages are not infinite: When they get 7 or 8 figure paychecks, it means that everyone else there gets less.

I once figured that Michael Eisner’s compensation at one point in the mid 1990s, $550,000,000.00,* or about $73.45 a second, would have added about $6.00/hour to the pay of every Disney employee, which in turn would likely have saved money through reduced turnover.

It doesn’t matter to them though, they just want to make more than the next CEO.

*For that, he did some rather wooden dialogue with Mickey Mouse on the Wonderful World of Disney. For that kind of money, the mouse should have been able to do him like Marlon Brando did Maria Schneider in Last Tango in Paris.

Is the Obama Administration Sabotaging the CFPB Already?

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There are increasing reports that Elizabeth Warren, largely as a result of a growing chorus among liberals to appoint her as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, will be the nominee as the first chair.

Well, I figured that if they were forced, as it appears that they are, then they would play to lose the nomination: After all, how tough is it to get Republicans to filibuster someone who wants to work for the average American?

Well, if the following report is true, then they are also sabotaging the CFPB as an organization as we speak, having tasked a Federal Reserve Governor and former banking industry lobbyist to start staffing the organization:

However, a source tells FDL News that Geithner is working on this process with Elizabeth Duke, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Duke is a former community banker and the past head of the American Bankers Association, a trade lobby group. She served on the ABA’s board of directors from 1999 to 2006. The ABA opposed the Dodd-Frank bill almost entirely because of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

What’s more, Duke herself specifically opposed an independent agency in July 2009 testimony, and endorsed keeping the responsibility for consumer protection in the Federal Reserve. In fact, she went further, promoting the Fed’s consumer protection prowess despite the agency having missed the housing bubble and the predatory lending that enabled it.

………

If the reports I’m getting are true, this is the woman dealing with staffing up and organizing the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, before the director gets a chance.

The Federal Reserve has not yet returned comment regarding Elizabeth Duke’s role.

This is crucially important. There’s a lot someone in power can do to mess with a federal agency at the outset. You can hire some staffers not committed to the agency’s goals, or give them poor working conditions, or any number of things. Then the new director comes in and is immediately faced with a turf war. If a community banker dismissive of consumer protections ends up setting the vision for the consumer protection bureau, it could slow its progress out of the gate. If the Department where the agency originates is more concerned with “extend and pretend” – letting the banks get out of trouble by earning their way past the bad loans on their books, in part through inundating consumers with higher fees on their products – then that worldview of the banks being more important than the people can get embedded into the agency.

Obviously, there are conflicting reports here, but I’m inclined to believe these reports.

Obviously, David Dayen’s suggestion that Obama do the right thing and, “without delay name her to the position of interim director by hiring her at Treasury,” is a good suggestion, but this assumes a level of support of the CFPB and its core mission, and I do not believe that.

First, I believe that Obama and his economic team really do buy into neoliberal idea that markets are always smarter and better than regulators, and second, I think that they honestly believe that the banking system will collapse if they generate profits by cheating ordinary Americans.

Of course I’ve been pessimistic about Obama for about three years, so feel free to argue that I’m not hopey changey enough.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday initial claims rose by 37,000 to a 464,000 (seasonally adjusted), worse than forecast, with the less noisy 4 week moving average rising by 1,250 to 456,000, though continuing claims fell by 223,000 to 4.49 million.

In real estate, the inventory of homes for sales has risen year over year, and existing home sales fell in June.

They will fall in July as well, since we are still seeing the tailing off of closings from contracts that were signed before the tax credit expired.

About the only thing that shows any hope in the housing market is that mortgage rates continue to fall, though they really running up against the zero bound.

Bloody Morons

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So, the Senate, now that Byrd’s temporary replacement has been sworn in, but they got it wrong.

They extended benefits through November. You should have extended it only to October, and then jam up the Republicans when they vote against it just before the election.

I understand that Congressmen don’t like to be in DC in October of an election year, but being there to vote for an unemployment extension is the best campaigning that you can do.

Economics Update

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Well, if consumers are 70% of the economy, the fact that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index numbers fell to a nearly 1 year low.

This, along with a falling consumer price index, which indicates that a deflationary spiral may be nearer than we would like, are not good news.

Additionally, notwithstanding heroic/stupid efforts to prop up the housing bubble, home builder confidence has hit a 15 month low.

On the brighter side, Moody’s survey of commercial real estate prices is rose in May, and the National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey of employers is showing that employers are looking to hire more than they were a year ago, though admittedly, that is not saying much.

Economics Update

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Well, it’s jobless Thursday, and the initial unemployment claims number have fallen to a 2 year low, 429,000, though it should be noted that these are seasonally adjusted, and so this number takes into account, for example, GM’s summer shutdown, which did not happen this year, though, as the author notes, the fact that GM is seeing that much business is a good sign in and of itself.

Unsurprisingly, the 4 week moving average fell as well, though continuing claims rose.

On the other side of the coin, we are seeing a number of non-employment metrics weakening, with falling producer prices, foreshadowing incipient deflation, while both the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed numbers have softened.

In real estate, home foreclosures rose 38% year over year in the 2ndquarter.

The Fed Gets Grimmer

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Well, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been released, and the already grim predictions that they have made for GDP and employment have become even grimmer.

It’s time to crank up the helicopters, and literally begin dropping money out of them.

I’ve run the numbers for this operation, and it would require fewer than 100 of the whirlybirds to accomplish the task.

Economics Update

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If you believe that small business will be important in any recovery, then the fact that the fact that the NFIB’s index of small business optimism fell.

In employment, job turnover fell in May, indicating that this already jobless recovery might become even more jobless.

There are also signs of weakness in transportation, with the Association of American Railroads Rail Time Indicators falling.

Real estate is grim as well, with non-residential construction forecast to fall 10% in 2010, and home mortgage purchase applications fell to a 13 year low, even with rates being at historical lows.

Finally, in what makes up over 70% or so of the US economy, retail sales fell in June (see pic).

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thurdsay, and initial claims fell by 21,00 to 454000, which is still at least 100,000 too high for anything approaching a realistic recovery.

The less volatile 4-week moving average fell by 1250, and continuing claims fell by 224,000 to 4.41 million, though I am not sure if the latter might have been caused by the Senate delaying extended benefits.

Additionally, it looks like what Paul Krugman calls the “Invisible Bond Vigilantes,” still appear not to exist, because the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 4.57%, the lowest mortgage rate since Freddie Mac started keeping track of the data in 1971.

Note that even with the banks giving away money, people are still not buying houses now that the tax credit is basically done.

Hoocoocanode?

In other less than surprising news, the Bank of England has kept its benchmark rate at ½%, basically zero, so apparently they don’t believe in the bond vigilante fairy either.

Economics Update

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Temp hiring surges

It looks like temporary hiring is very strong, up 19.6% year over year, which, in addition to contributing to my finding employment, should be a leading indicator for direct employment, though private “permanent” employment is still down 0.7% YoY, which runs counter to earlier data. (see chart pr0n)

We are also seeing falling rates of credit card delinquencies, which are down to an 8 year low, which could be seen as either a glass half full, that people are getting a handle on their finances, or glass half empty, with people continuing to deleverage, and flying into the “paradox of thrift.”

Finally, in an update from yesterday, when I discussed office vacancies, today, we see that vacancy rates in shopping centers increased in the 2nd quarter.

OK, Good News For Me

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The US Army is upping its order of ground penetrating radars for deployment in Afghanistan:

To counter the threat, the Army is nearly doubling the number of NIITEK-produced Husky Mounted Detection Systems in theater.

The main component of the Husky is ground-penetrating radar called the VISOR 2500. One of the enduring frustrations with IEDs in Afghanistan is that often components are nonmetallic and nonmagnetic, making them difficult to detect using conventional methods. NIITEK says the radar system allows soldiers to detect threats through the ground that metal detectors wouldn’t pick up.

The most recent contract, awarded June 2, cost the Army $106.5 million for the 76 systems to be installed on Husky tactical support vehicles, as well as for spare parts, maintenance support and training for soldiers.

Yes, I work there, and no, I am not going into any details about what I do there, but obviously this means that there is work to be done.

So, Are We Going to Repeat 1937?

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Why this picture does not scare the powers that be defies understanding
H/t Calculated Risk

Well, a quick rundown of this week’s data seems to indicate that if we listen to the austerity fetishists, we are.

In employment, the Thursday unemployment claims data indicates a continued weakening of the employment picture, with initial claims rising 13K to 472K, at least 100K more than what we need to see for meaningful job growth, and both the 4-week moving average and the continuing claims numbers went in the wrong direction too.

Additionally, the official job numbers for June came out, and the non-Farm payroll fell by 125,000, though the drop was because of the US Census winding down its temporary positions.

Private employment rose by an anemic 83,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5%, though the latter was largely from people leaving the rolls because they had given up looking, and the hourly workweek fell.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index fell from 59.7 to 56.2, a 6-month low, though any number over 50 still shows expansion, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ index fell slightly as well.

Also, in yet another indication that the economy is running out of steam because the stimulus is running out, small business lending from the SBA has cratered following the expiration of its bonus program to lending banks.

Of course, the inflation hysterics hawks are saying that the bond markets are mad as hell, and that they are not going to take it any more, but if this were true, mortgage rates would not have fallen to their lowest rates in 50 years.

I would note that we are seeing the same thing in real estate, with 31% of all home sales being foreclosure or short sales, up from 1% at the height of the bubble, and these foreclosures are selling for a 27% discount relative to regular sales, which indicates that a recovery, either in price or in volume is still far away.

Back Home Now

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I am working a 4 ten hour days, so I get 3 days at home.

Still trying to get my head around all this and figuring out how to balance blogging with all this.

Needless to say, this blog is not at the top of my work/family priorities, but I’ll try to stay on top of this.

Deep Thought

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After my first full week at work, it appears that my skills still remain sharp.

However, there is one exception, my cubical navigation sense is off.

At least twice a day, while picking up something from the printer or returning the bathroom, I make a wrong turn, and end up at someone else’s cube.

Deep Thought

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A stint of unemployment, can make you wonder about whether or not one’s technical skills have gotten dulled in the interim.

Fortunately, there is no problem here. I picked up ProE as if I had not been off it at all.

On the other hand, I seem to have lost the ability to navigate my way through cubical farms.

At least 3 times a day, I walk back to my cube, and take a wrong turn, and end up at someone else’s cube, and this is just a medium sized office.

Being a man, I don’t ask for directions, of course.

I Found a Job

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I mentioned the interview earlier.

I start next Tuesday, and you can be sure that I will post very little about my employer, even if I come across a story about them in the news.

I think that blogging about one’s employer is a good way to make an employer* a former employer.

Since they are near Dulles airport, about 80 miles away, I will be getting a room in area (already lined up), and it includes Internet (Wifi).

Unfortunately, I do not have a laptop at this time, so I am looking to get a wireless enabled one, which is why I’ve changed my donation button to read Matthew’s Saroff’s Beer (and Laptop) Fund and Tip Jar.

I will be using the laptop for blogging, and to Skype video calls to Sharon† and the kids.

It’s the 2nd item down in the right hand column.

Needless to say, my blogging time will be more restricted, though the fact that I will be without a TV may make the effect on my blogging a wash.

Still, having a job as an engineer after 11 months of not having one (the 1 month gig was as a tech writer) is a very good thing, and I am close enough to head home for just an evening occasionally.

*It’s a temporary contract, so technically, they are a client, but still…
†Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.