Well, the GDP numbers for the 1st quarter were revised again, and they were revised down again, down to a 2.7% annual rate, revised down from 3%, which was itself revised down from 3.2% initial figure.
Funny, isn’t it.
Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims fell, but still remain well into the “major suckage” range.
Still grim, and grimmer still Ex-Census Hiring
H/t Calculated Risk, link has more grim graph pr0n
So, the “very serious people” in Washington and other capitals around the world have decided that we need to reduce deficits, because the financial crisis is over.
Well the employment data seems to show otherwise.
Total payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, but most of that was temporary census employment, the increase in private sector workforce was only 41,000, and you need to create some 100K-125K new jobs each month in order to keep up with natural growth in the labor force.
Add to this the fact that even with improvements, the unemployment claims numbers still suck wet farts from dead pigeons, and I am fairly certain that the “very serious people” are “very seriously wrong people”.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell from 60.4 in April to 59.7 in May. Note that this is still expansion, but it is a slower rate of growth.
Seeing as how the 2nd derivative is a pretty twitchy number anyway, I’d wait for the June numbers, and perhaps July, to see if there is a trend.
Meanwhile, construction rose by 2.7% from March to April, the largest one month jump in almost 10 years.
Additionally, serious mortgage delinquencies fell marginally, but since this is the first time that they have fallen since the real estate bubble started to pop in 2007.
Meanwhile, in the department of, “If you listen to the Germans when you set up a currency, you will get screwed,” unemployment in the Euro zone rose to 10.1% in April. (PDF)
It looks like interesting work, but, as is my custom, I don’t go into specifics about this sort of stuff, but it is safe to provide a link to their site.
Not generally for civilian use, but I can see how archeologists, and possibly utilities, might want to check out the tech in addition to military folks.
Wish me luck.
(I actually posted this yesterday to display now)
Home sales up, but prices are down
And inventory is rising again
Yes, I know, I haven’t been posting this regularly.
Yesterday’s miss was due to thunderstorms.
In any case, yesterday was jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell slightly, by 16,000 to 460,000, which was worse than expected, with the 4 week moving average rising slightly, and continuing claims fell, though, as I frequently note, people who move from continuing claims to emergency claims fall out of that number.
We also now know that mass layoffs rose in April.
additionally, we are seeing more of that whole “paradox of thrift” thing, with personal income rising, but spending remaining flat, which implies that an increase in consumers buying crap that they really don’t need won’t be our economic salvation.
Also note that the US GDP in the 1st quarter was revised downward, to an annual growth rate of 3% from 3.2%.
I think that he Obama’s already anemic stimulus package is running out of steam.
In real estate, the flight from the Euro has pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a record low, which, along with the recently expired home buyer tax credit, drove existing home sales higher, though inventories are increasing as well, and prices are falling once again, which implies that a resurgence in the housing bubble won’t be our economic salvation..
In terms of more general metrics, the consumer confidence index rose slightly, as did the Chicago Fed Activity Index, and the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index.
I just wish that the PTB were as concerned about 9.9% unemployment as they are about a twitch in the DJIA that ran for about an hour.
It looks like my extended unemployment benefits , as well as those of a few million wanting-to-be-working Americans, will expire as Congress rushes out the door to take their vacation recess:
The House of Representatives Friday was to vote on a reduced package of safety-net spending and tax measures that would raise taxes on fund managers, but it likely was too late to avoid disrupting jobless benefits for hundreds of thousands of Americans.
Democrats, who say the bill would lower the country’s 9.9 percent unemployment rate, had hoped it would clear Congress this week to ensure that jobless benefits and other safety-net provisions do not expire. But the Senate was set to leave town for a week-long break without taking action.
As a result, hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans will probably lose the weekly payments that help them cover their bills as they look for work in a sluggish economy.
Congressional wrangling has delayed such benefits at least four times in the past year. Democrats say they will restore the benefits when they return in early June.
To whoever is slow walking this, and to whoever is letting them slow walk this, “Go Cheney Yourself.”
This is not an expanding home market
H/t Calculated Risk
Well, so much for green shoots, it’s jobless Thursday, and new claims rose by 25K this week to 471,000, with the 4 week moving average rising by 3K to 453,500, though the continuing claims number fell by 40K to 4,630,000.
It should be noted that the continuing claims number does not count those on emergency UI, like yours truly.
Additionally, it should be noted that the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators posted its 1st drop since March 2009. It should be noted that this is a volatile metric, and a folks who know economics generally want at least 3 months up or down before they declare a trend.
Additionally, real estate is looking dicey.
We have, “One in 7 US homeowners late paying or in foreclosure,” actually 14.01%, in the 1st quarter of the year, with 10% of home owners late 90+ days, and the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index shows continued contraction in April, though this indicator for future commercial construction is did improve in comparison to March.
Additionally, mortgage purchase applications fell to a 13 year low, even as low rates kick-started the demand for refinancing.
Note that this is despite near record low mortgage rates.
We are also seeing continuing erosion in the prices of commercial property.
On the plus side, the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Activity Index rose in May, and Japan’s economy grew faster than expected.
On the inflation side, the CPI fell by 0.1% in April, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, has risen .9% over the past 12 months, which is actually worrying, as it indicates a risk of a deflationary spiral/lost decade.
I’ve gotten a lot of calls regarding submittals for jobs this week.
With a bit of luck, I’ll find something before my Daughter’s Bat Mitzvah.
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims fell from 448,000 to 444,000, though it should be noted that last week’s number of 448,000 was actually revised up from 444,000, meaning that the number is even flatter than the 4K change indicates.
That being said, the 4 week moving average fell by 9,000, which might indicate a slight trend downward in claims, if not for the fact that continuing claims rose, indicating that this may be less a matter of the economy picking up than it is a matter of employers simply running out of people to let go.
In terms of other metrics for the economy:
Consumer confidence, at least as surveyed by Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, has risen in May, from 48.7 from 48.4, though numbers below 50 indicate pessimism.
The National Federation of Independent Business’ optimism index rose to 90.6 in April from 86.8 in March, which is firmly in the class of, “better, but still pretty weak tea.”
In transport and trade, we have the trade deficit hitting a 15-month high, which, while normally not a good thing, is right now, because we are well into “paradox of thrift” territory.
Additionally, we have the always worthwhile Calculated risk reporting that Diesel fuel consumption fell slightly, and rail traffic rose slightly, in April.
In real estate, mortgage applications are up, but only because refinance is up, purchase applications are down, indicating that we are seeing people who are trying to lock in low rates on homes that they already own.
Finally, the Bank of England has decided to maintain its monetary policies, keeping its benchmark rate at ½% (effectively zero), and maintaining its quantitative easing via asset purchases.
Unemployment Population Ratio: Still Not Back
The lede here has to be the non-farm payroll (NFP) numbers for April, which were very, very, good.
There was in increase in payrolls of 290,000 , which was the largest increase since March of 2006, and manufacturing added 44,000 jobs, the largest increase in 12 years.
Additionally, as Paul Krugman observes, “My favorite indicator from the household survey isn’t the unemployment rate, it’s the employment-population ratio — and that’s up, from 58.6 to 58.8.”
It’s been rising since December.
Unfortunately, unemployment worsened, though part of this was discouraged workers returning to work:
But. Keep an eye on those unemployment rates. The headline figure is back up at 9.9%, the highest it’s been this year. The U-6 underemployment rate is a gruesome 17.1%. And U-4, which is total unemployed plus discouraged workers, has hit a new high of 10.6%.”
Even at nearly 300,000 new jobs a month, it will take years for these people to find work again.
Additionally, we have the short-term good/long-term bad news that consumers are using credit once again. Consumer borrowing rose by $2 billion in March.
In energy and currency, it appears that Greece, and the recent UK elections have created uncertainty, which has driven oil prices lower, and the dollar was mixed, up slightly versus the Pound, and down slightly versus the Euro.
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell slightly, 7K to 444K, with a 4 week moving average dropping 4,750 to 458,500, and continuing claims fell 59,000 to 4.594 million, though filings for extended claims rose.
Still, we are not seeing numbers that show a recovery in the job market, and the fact that April retail sales disappointed won’t help.
In Yuro land, the European Central Bank held its benchmark steady at 1%, whihc had the effect of pushing the dollar up, which in turn drove oil down.
Basically, Greece trumps the oil disaster.
The ADP private job report for April is out today, and it reports that 32,000, but since the private non-farm workforce needs to grow somewhere in the neighborhood of 130,000 a month, this means that unemployment is still increasing.
Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index was 55.5, for the 4th straight month with any number above 50 indicating expansion, though the employment component of the index fell.
All in all though, better numbers are getting better.
In real estate, mortgage applications rose, with the refinance index falling, and the purchase index rising, so this is likely an artifact of the tax credit.
And its the same story as yesterday with regard to Greece and oil and currency, with people fleeing to safety driving the dollar up, and the rising dollar pushing oil down.
It was jobless Thursday, and the news is generally good, with applications for initial unemployment claims falling again, falling by 11k to a seasonally adjusted 448K, though the 4 week moving average rose slightly, and the continuing claims fell slightly to 4.65 million.
Additionally, the The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s national activity index rose in March, foreclosures fell in the 1st quarter, though things like foreclosure moratoriums and mandatory arbitration may have contributed to this, and Japanese consumer spending and wages rose in March, though prices continue to fall.
Also, 30 year mortgage rates fell slightly this week, which moderates concerns about increasing interest rates.
Additionally, US treasurys rose, and yields fell slightly in the latest 7-year auction, implying that rates remain stable.
Energy and currency are largely being driven by Greece.
People are less concerned about a Greek default, which has reduced demand for the dollar as safe haven, driving the dollar lower, and the lower dollar has drive oil prices higher.
On Monday, I sent out an update of my resume including my brief stint as a tech writer (also here).
Basically, it needs to be included, because I want to plug the hole in my employment history, so something with “2010” in it is useful, but I don’t want to get a bunch calls from recruiters who do not look past the key word search calling me with technical writer positions,* so I listed my title is listed as, “Developer/Writer.”
It is true and accurate. “Developer” was my official title, and writer was what I did, but by avoiding the dreaded term “technical writer”, I won’t trigger a keyword search.
In any case, on to the data point:
I got a very strong response to my resume mailing,† perhaps 50% more responses by phone or email that happened with my last resume drop in October 2009.
So, I do have a sense of things picking up.
BTW, if you want to look at my resume, you can see it, as well as an 8 page complete CV that covers everything back to college, here.
*At least not ones from out of town. I’m not willing to travel to be a tech writer, but I’m willing to commute daily to be one.
†I use a shell account at Panix.com, who I highly recommend, and I have a whole series of Unix scripts that allow me to send a few hundred emails, or do a mail merge into an email, with attached files, with each recipient getting an individualized “To:” header. (I.e. no BCC:) If you are interested, drop me a line, and I will send them to you.‡
‡And there is no need to tell me that it’s ugly C shell script. I already know this.
It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell by 24,000 to 456,000, not as good as forecast, and the 4-week moving average rose slightly, while continuing claims fell by 40,000 to 4.65 million, though, as always, the last number does not count those (like me) collecting extended unemployment benefits.
In inflation land, we had the producer price index rise by 0.7% in March, giving an annual rate of inflation of over 8½%, though the year over year increase is 6%, and for the core rate, which strips out food and energy, the increase was only 0.1% for the month and 0.9% year over year.
Of concern is the fact that food prices rose by 2.4% in March, a 26 year high.
In real estate, the Architecture Billings Index fell, indicating future contraction in the construction of commercial real estate, while mortgage applications rose, largely on lower rates.
In home sales, we saw a 6.8% spike last month. This was almost certainly driven by the home buyer tax credit that is due to expire on April 20, so we’ll see what the April, and May numbers look like.
In energy and currency, oil rose slightly on good earnings reports, and the Euro took a hit on new Greek deficit numbers.
Well, so much for a recovery in employment, initial unemployment claims rose by 24,000 to 484,000, with the 4-week moving average rising by 7,5000 to 457,750, and continuing claims rose by 73,000 to 4.64 million.
Additionally, real estate is looking grim, with foreclosures rising by 7% in the 1st quarter of2010over the 4th quarter of 2009, and by 16% year over year, which implies over 1 million foreclosures over the next year.
On the brighter side of real estate, mortgage rates fell for the first time in 5 weeks, and builder confidence rose, though the latter is largely driven by the insane home buyer tax credits.
In consumer credit, credit card delinquencies fell in March, though Capital One is doing worse. (What’s in your wallet?)
In more general metrics, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Business Activity Index beat expectations, rising to 20.2, beating forecasts of 20, and factory production grew by 0.9%.
Meanwhile in currency and energy, concerns about Greece drove the dollar up, and oil down.
They had to break 2 filibusters, but the bill is now on its way to President Obama for his signature.
The bill also included COBRA subsidies, a waiver of Medicare reimbursement cuts, and the national flood insurance program.
Hopefully, this means that I will be able to apply for extended benefits soon.
The Dems managed to get 4 ‘Phants to support cloture on extended unemployment benefits, Scott Brown (MA), Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe (ME), and George Voinovich (OH).
I don’t know which 5 Dems were not voting, but my guess is that Byrd, whose health is shaky is one of them.
I should start getting unemployment checks again soon.
Well, today is jobless Thursday, and the the new unemployment numbers disappointed big time, with initial claims rising to 460,000, as opposed to falling slightly to 435,000, with the 4-week moving average rising 2,250 to 450,250.
On the bright side, continuing claims fell by 131K to 4.55 M, though one wonders how much of that was because of Tom Coburn’s petulant filibuster against extended unemployment benefits, which likely has depressed the number, which (full disclosure) has effected me directly. (Will no one rid me of ……… Oh, never mind.)
Meanwhile in consumer spending, February consumer borrowing fell at a -5.6% annual rate, wiping out, and then some, the growth in consumer borrowing in January that had economists crowing, though the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index grew faster than it has since July 2004 in March.
On the brighter side, delinquencies in consumer loans fell in the 4th quarter of 2009.
In the world of national finance and central banks, we have a few developments with the 3-year, 10 year, and 30 year treasury notes falling and their yields rising, which implies that investors expect interest rates to increase, at least a bit.
Meanwhile, in central bank land, the Bank of England has left its benchmark interest rate and its quantitative easing unchanged, and the Bank of Korea also left rates unchanged.
In real estate, it’s been a pretty busy few days with the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hitting an 8 month high, which, unsurprisingly has depressed mortgage applications.
In residential real estate, foreclosures are still rising, and distressed home sales hit a new high of 29% in January, though delinquencies on sub-prime mortgages fell for the first time since 2006.
I’m thinking that the sub-prime delinquency rate fell because we have finally run out of people who have those mortgages who haven’t yet been forced out of their homes.
In commercial real estate, mall vacancies have hit an at least 10 year high, there are no records prior to this, and office vacancies hit 17.4%, the highest since 1994.
Meanwhile, in energy and currency, the bad job numbers drove crude prices down, and new concerns about Greece have driven the dollar higher.
I’ve reorganized the Google™ Ads™, in the hopes of getting a few more pennies, because my my application for extended unemployment benefits, has been put on hold by the petulance of Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK).
I figure that the narrow strip of ads under the title is preferable to my screaming, “Will no on rid me of this turbulent ‘Phant.”