Category: employment

Barney Frank Goes Nuclear on Former Staffer

And let me note that the staffer, Peter Roberson, deserves it.

Basically, this guy took lead on writing regulations on derivatives, and then he started shopping himself to hedge funds, and this Really pissed off Barney Frank:

But in late January, after learning that Roberson was interviewing for a position with ICE, Frank asked him to leave his post, removed him from the payroll, de-activated his email account and took his Blackberry, keys and identification credentials, according to both Frank and Frank’s spokesman.

And if that weren’t enough:

Frank said there is a rule which bans staffers who leave for industry positions from interacting with committee members for one year, but he doesn’t think this rule goes far enough.

Frank said Thursday he has instructed staff “to have no contact whatsoever with Mr. Roberson on any matters involving financial regulation for as long as I am in charge of that committee staff.”

(emphasis mine)

I will note that Frank did this a year ago with another former aid, where he forbade contact with Goldman Sachs lobbyist, and former committee staffer, Michael Paese, from contacting the committee while they were working on reform legislation, but that was only while the bill was being drawn up.

I am not sure if this has happened because Roberson’s behavior was particularly egregious, or if it was because the bleeding in staff was becoming excessive, but this is a much needed shot across the bow of the revolving door in the US Congress.

In either case, it’s pretty clear that Roberson is now radioactive, and that his market value as a peddler of access has been much diminished.

Frank’s official statement after break:

Statement of Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank

Washington, DC – House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) today made the following statement about stories related to a recent staff departure from the House Financial Services Committee:

“Several people have expressed criticism of the move by Peter Roberson from the staff of the Financial Services Committee to ICE, after he worked on the legislation relevant to derivatives. I completely agree with that criticism. When Mr. Roberson was hired, it never occurred to me that he would jump so quickly from the Committee staff to an industry that was being affected by the Committee’s legislation. When he called me to tell me that he was in conversations with them, I told him that I was disappointed and that I insisted that he take no further action as a member of the Committee staff. I then called the Staff Director and instructed her to remove him from the payroll and provide him only such compensation as is already owed.

“Stories about this correctly noted that there is a one year ban on his interaction with members of the Committee staff, but I do not think that is adequate. I am therefore instructing the staff of the Financial Services Committee to have no contact whatsoever with Mr. Roberson on any matters involving financial regulation for as long as I am in charge of that Committee staff. Fortunately, examples of staff members doing what Mr. Roberson has done are rare, but even one example is far too much and that is why I wanted to make clear I share the unhappiness of people at this, and my intention to prohibit any contact between him and members of the staff for as long as I have any control over the matter.”

###

Economics Update (For the Week)

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Employment/Population Ratio Still at 1983 Levels


Long-term unemployment is still at a 40+ Year high


Personal bankruptcies on level with pre-bankruptcy reform numbers (H/t Calculated Risk)

Well, we have the employment numbers for March out now, and the March non-farm payroll numbers (NFP) rose by 162,000, with unemployment (U3)remaining at 9.7%, and the broader U6 unemployment number remained basically flat, increasing from 16.8% to 16.9% (seasonally adjusted).

This is an improvement. It’s the largest NFP jump in 3 years.

That being said, some things to note:

  • The US Census hired 48,000 temp employees in March.
  • You need about 150,000 new jobs each month to accommodate people entering the workforce.
  • Some of this may be hiring from prior months that was delayed because of the various snowpocalypse weather events that occurred.
  • Long term unemployment increased.
  • Involuntary part time employment increased (largely why U6 is up)

About 8 million people have lost jobs in this recessions, and at a NFP payroll increase of 162K a month, it would take more than 50 years for everyone who lost their jobs to get another job, so while it is an improvement, things are at best treading water, but the trend does appear to be getting better.

Still, the employment/population ratio is at a 27 year low, and long term unemployment is at a 40+ year high.

Also, we have

Still, all in all, I have to say that we are seeing a recovery, but it’s a feeble and fragile recovery.

We still have some areas of concern, most notably that construction spending fell once again, and personal bankruptcies rose sharply.

Economics Update

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Philly Fed 1st Q: 25 states down, 18 up, 7 unchanged

The official non-farm payroll (NFP) number comes out on Friday, but today we have the private report from ADP, which shows a loss of 23,000 jobs, but the payroll withholding taxes numbers imply an increase in total jobs of something in the 300,000 range.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve has released its State Coincident Indexes, which show that half of the states contracted over the past 3 months, and 23 decreased in the past month.

It’s better than it was a year ago, but it’s still not good.

In the consumer sector, consumer spending rose in February, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose in March.

On the production side, factory orders rose for the 6th month, though the data was not good in the Midwest, with the, with the Chicago purchasing managers index falling.

In real estate, mortgage application, including purchases, rose last week, and Fannie Mae has reported that mortgage delinquencies rose to 5.52% in January.

Note that because of the different times covered, these numbers may be consistent.

Across the ponds, Euro zone inflation rose to 1.5% year over year, and unemployment broke 10%, while in China, manufacturing grew faster than forecast in March.

Meanwhile, for reasons that I do not understand, oil rose, though the Chinese manufacturing data might have led to concerns over additional demand, and both the dollar and the Yen fell on reduced demand for safe havens.

Well, Both of You are Going to Get More of My Bloggy Goodness

The client firm, which is doing a maintenance manual for a Post Office mail sorter, did not get a bridge contract for the next stage of the contract, so they let the contractors go today, so as soon as the Passover Yom Tovim* are over, I back to calling around for a job.

Damn.

Sometimes life sucks.

*Some Jewish holidays, like Purim and Hanukah, come from somewhere other than Torah, and so there are few, if any restrictions on what you are supposed to do, while others, like Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, are mentioned in Torah, and so activities are restricted by Jewish law, much in the same way that they are for Shabbat, where “work” (long story) is forbidden. (It’s marginally more lenient). Days 1, 2, 7, and 8 of Passover are Yom Tovim outside of Israel (longer story), and so, out of respect for my wife, and her mother, who will be visiting, I won’t be online those days.

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims fell by 14K to 442,000, though it should be noted that a change to seasonal adjustments accounted for 11K of that 14 K.

The less noisy 4 week moving average fell by 11K to 453,750, and continuing claims fell by 54K to 4.65 million, the lowest number in 1¼ years.

All in all, good news, but we are still not at a number where we would see real job growth.

In the intersection of real estate and finance, we have 13.6% of US mortgages being delinquent in the 4th quarter of 2009, up by 0.9% from the 3rd quarter.

In a blast from the past, we have a development in the slow motion immolation of the monoliner insurers with the largest of the bond insurers, Ambac, had the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance take control of roughly $35 billion of insurance contracts on residential mortgages.

They have direct the troubled insurance company to segregate these contracts into separate accounts.

You arrogant ass. You’ve killed us!

Just so you know, it appears that the financial weapon of mass destruction, the Credit Default Swap is rearing its ugly head once again, as the segregation of accounts may constitute a “default” under the terms of the credit default swap contracts on these assets.

Seriously, this sh%$ is going to destroy us if we don’t get a handle on it. (Cue captain Tupolev)

Finally, in currency the Euro has rebounded slightly off its low on reports of an imminent solution for the Greek crisis, though these concerns were still enough to push oil prices down.

David Frum Fired By the AEI

He has been fired as a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

It probably has something to do with his recent comments about the Republican party’s missteps.

Fellow pariah right winger Bruce Bartlett actually invoked Stalin in his comments on the affair, though he wimped out and only used the “S” word in his URL. “groupthink-right-would-make-stalin-proud.”

Bartlett notes that the AEI “experts” on healthcare had been muzzled:

Since, he [Frum] is no longer affiliated with AEI, I feel free to say publicly something he told me in private a few months ago. He asked if I had noticed any comments by AEI “scholars” on the subject of health care reform. I said no and he said that was because they had been ordered not to speak to the media because they agreed with too much of what Obama was trying to do.

It is noteworthy that Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal calls it a resignation, which even the Washington Post did not try to foist off on their readers.

Here is Mr. Frum’s letter of resignation:

Dear Arthur [Brooks, AEI President],

This will memorialize our conversation at lunch today. Effective immediately, my position as a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute is terminated. I appreciate the consideration that delays my emptying of my office until after my return from travel next week. Premises will be vacated no later than April 9.

I have had many fruitful years at the American Enterprise Institute, and I do regret this abrupt and unexpected conclusion of our relationship.

Very truly yours,

David Frum

And the WSJ says that he “quit”.

Unsurprising News

It turns out that when Pay Czar Ken Feinberg cut the pay of executives at bailed out firms, there was no rush for the exits:

For months, Wall Street banks and the troubled automakers feverishly protested that their top executives would flee if they were not lavishly rewarded for their talents. New data, however, suggests the departures were more of a trickle than a flood.

Of the 104 senior executives whose pay was set by the federal pay regulator in the last two years, 88 executives, or nearly 85 percent, are still with the companies even though their pay was drastically cut back, according to people briefed on the government data.

There are a number of reasons, including the fact that these”super geniuses” are really pretty toxic, and for the most part, really not much special.

Additionally, if you are getting “only” $2 million a year, you can still live pretty well on that, even in Manhattan, and it’s a pain looking for a job ………… Trust me on this one, it’s a real pain looking for a job.

And 15% turnover in 2 years, that might actually be less than normal.

Economics Update

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H/t Calculated Risk

It’s Jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 457,000, which is less bad, you need to be under 400K for any real job growth, and the less volatile 4 week moving average fell, though continuing claims fell slightly.

Meanwhile, the CPI was flat in February, with a 0.1% increase in the core inflation rate, which omits food and energy.

In real estate, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is basically unchanged, at 4.96%.

It will start going up once the TALF expires in a few months.

Finally, oil fell and the dollar rose, probably as a correction for the large swings in response to yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement.

Economics Update

Yeah, I know, It’s no longer daily. A new job does that, and it’s de rigeur on Thursday, because that’s when the unemployment data comes out.

In this case, it’s down 6k to 642K, but the 4 week moving average rose 5,000 to 475,500, and continuing claims, which I am no longer a part of were flat at 4.56 million.

Basically, dropping jobless claims don’t mean rising employment until some point below 400K a week, so don’t get your hopes up.

BTW, not getting their hopes up is what small businesses are doing right now, with the National Association of Independent businesses’ index of small business optimism falling to the 2nd lowest level ever recorded, and the Manpower Survey of hiring managers was down slightly, though their Asian numbers were somewhat improved.

In real estate, foreclosure rose by “only” 6% year over year, leading to paroxysms of prodigious positivism by the Panglossian press, but it means that foreclosures are still rising.

Meanwhile, in China, they are freaking out over their inflation levels, which have risen to a 2.7% annual rate (merciful heavens, get me the smelling salts).

Actually, if the PBC raises rates to reign in inflation, I don’t see how they could keep their peg against the dollar, because higher rates push just about any currency up.

Economics Update

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Employment-to-Population Ratio: Men (25-54 Years)

Labour Force Participation Rate: Men (25-54 Years)

And Barry Ritholtz scares the hell out of us

Well, today is Jobless Thursday, and new unemployment claims fell by 29,000 to 469,000, which is better, but not good.

The numbers needs to be below 400K before we see anything near real job growth.

The 4 week moving average fell by 3,500 to 470,750, though that number is still bigger than it was at the start of the year.

Continuing claims fell significantly, to 4,500,000, and next week, I will be a no longer be a part of that number (I file for the prior 2 weeks on Sunday).

Still, the news is an improvement, as is the latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve, which shows signs of employment.

In any case, the ADP report on private sector jobs shows a loss of 20,000 jobs, which is the best month from them since January 2008.

So, the picture is not good, but appears to be improving, but fragile.

But if you want to be scared, just look at Barry Ritholtz’s analysis of historical employment for adult males, see the graph pr0n.

On a more personal level, personal bankruptcies rose in February.

We are seeing continued growth in manufacturing, at least according to the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index, which fell to 56.5 from 58.4, but since any reading above 50 means expansion, it’s still positive.

The services sector is also showing encouraging growth.

Still, real estate is a mess, with pending home sales index falling 7.6%, though part of this might be the snowpocalypse.

Still, interest rates are not a problem with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaging 4.97 %, which is the first time in a while that it has been below 5%.

Finally, the Bank of England left its benchmark rates unchanged, as well as holding off on more quantitative easing. (Printing money)

Light Posting for the Foreseeable Future

Which means 2-5 posts a day, as opposed to the 8-11 a day that I have been doing.

I got a job. It’s not engineering, it a contract as a tech writer, and it’s near the airport, so I can get there quickly.

I will be working on documention for US Government equipment, and as per my policy, I will leave it there, because if I don’t talk about the specifics of my job, I won’t say anything that should be proprietary, or anything that would embarrass the client.

So while I may make generic comments about how busy I am, or make a note about, for example, how neat the 3D printer is, I won’t generally comment on the business of the client.

I’m leaving this on the top of the page until Wednesday evening, so scroll down for newer posts.

Economics Update

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H/t the Big Picture

It’s jobless Thursday, and the new numbers suck wet farts from dead pigeons, specifically, they are up 12% over the past 2 weeks,to 496,000, up 22,000, and well over the consensus estimate 460,000.

Ouch.

Meanwhile, both the The 4-week moving average and the continuing claims rose by 6K, to 473,750 and 4.617 million.

Note however, that he Snowpocalypse may have had something to do with this.

Note also that that the durable goods orders number sucked too, it was up only because of aircraft orders, and as the picture on the right shows, there really is no increase at all once you take out spending on military items going back a very long time.

Meanwhile, in Japan, their consumer prices fell by 1.3% year over year, which is triggering a shouting match between the Finance Ministry, who want QE, and the Bank of Japan, who are still inflation hawks.

Meanwhile in currency, the dollar rose, largely on concerns about Greece and Euro Zone.

And yes, I know, I need to post something about the Greek problem, but it’s sprawling, and I’m still trying to make a synthesis.

In energy, the crappy jobs numbers drove oil down.

Snowpocalypse Delayed

We got the lightest of dustings last night, which is good, because I had an interview this morning, for a level tech writer position, which ain’t engineering but it beats sitting on my butt collecting unemployment.

In any case, the NWS is predicting snow tonight, 2-4 inches in total:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1214 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

MDZ005>007-011-260115-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.100225T2300Z-100226T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.100225T1714Z-100226T1700Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WESTMINSTER…BALTIMORE
1214 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE…SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING…ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING…SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES…HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TODAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY.

* WINDS…NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
55 MPH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

5 Republicans Vote for Cloture on Jobs Bill

The one where Harry Reid stripped out all the tax breaks for special interests that Max Baucus put in to make nice with the terrorists Republicans.

Republicans voting for cloture were Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George Voinovich, and Christopher “Kit” Bond.

Notably, Ben Nelson, who is nominally a Democrat voted against cloture.

There should be consequences for him. He has a leadership position, and he is voting for cloture.

Instead, Reid and Obama will find some other way to suck up to him.

Economics Update

I already blogged about the big news of the day, the increase in the rate for the discount window, so the lede here, as it is every jobless Thursday, is initial unemployment claims, which rose by 31,000 to 473,000, though the 4 week moving average fell slightly, and continuing claims were unchanged.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its index of regional manufacturing activity, and the index is positive, indicating continued growth, for the 6th straight month.

In Wally World, Wal-Mart’s same store sales fell in the 4th quarter.

I’m not sure if this is just generally bad news, or if it implies that shoppers are moving upscale and spending more.

The rest of the news is driven by today’s Fed announcement, which drove treasuries down, and thus yields up, as well as pushing the dollar, and crude oil higher.