Category: Europe

Russia-Belarus Alliance Approaching Georgian Breakaway Provinces

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A spokesman for the so called “Union State” alliance, is saying that Transdnestr, Abkhazia and South Ossetia might be granted some sort of observer status, possibly followed by full membership.

Needless to say, this would lead to secession from Georgia, and very likely a some sort of hostilities.

This kind of crap is going on because first Bill Clinton, and then George W. Bush ignored commitments to limit the westward expansion of NATO to the reunification of Germany, and so have created what is legitimately viewed by the Russians as a ring of steel around them, complete with a ballistic missile defense system that is better positioned against them than it is against the Iranians.

I don’t think it’s going to happen, but the expansion of NATO really needs to be stopped.

Sarkozy is an Asshole

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And his new wife is not hot enough to make up for that.

As proof of this, he is now demanding that the Irish rerun their referendum on the new EU treaty.

I hate to tell you this dude, but you are not Irish, and right now, a lot of Frenchmen wish you weren’t French either.

I will tell you that part of the reason for this is that after repeated rejections of an update to the EU governance structures in a number of countries, including France, the response, which is to game the system to ensure passage, makes people distrust you.

I do know that if you attempt to keep passing a document that is hundreds of pages long, and too complex for anyone to understand as a whole, you will keep being rejected.

The supporters of EU reform have been opaque in their behavior and tactics, so it’s no surprise that people think that they have something to hide.

Czechs Experience Difficulty with Russian Pipeline

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Well, the Czechs have signed a deal with the US to install an ABM radar which is clearly directed at least as much at the Russia as at Iran, and they are shocked to discover that there are problems with oil deliveries:

Shipments to Czech oil refineries through the Druzhba pipeline, which ties Siberian fields to the Czech Republic, are declining, the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade said. It did not say by how much.

You sign off on a policy that is pretty explicitly threaten Russia, and you are surprised when they retaliate?

What planet are you on?

Bush and His Evil Minions™ Pressuring Germany’s Merkel Over Location of Obama Speech

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Well, it appears that Barack Obama will be in Europe, and he wants to give a speech at the Brandenberg gate in Berlin, but members of the Bush delegation at the G-8 summit twisted arms to prevent this.

It appears that Merkel is interested in taking over Blair’s role as Bush’s poodle, though members of her CDU party are generally supportive of Obama speaking there because they want to hear what he wants to say.

Merkel has also gotten herself in an eye poking contest with the Mayor of Berlin, and member of the opposition (sort of, German party coalitions are complex) SDU Klaus Wowereit, who has made a point of calling Merkel out on her own overseas electioneering.

Euro Missile Defense Update

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The US and Czech Republic have signed a deal over the ABM radar, and the Russians are suggesting that they, “will be forced to react not in a diplomatic fashion but with military-technical means.”

This is a polite way of saying that nuclear weapons will be targeted at the Czech Republic, likely in a launch on warning stature.

The Czech people overwhelmingly oppose this, so one wonders if this will last past the Bush regime, particularly if the Russians bring natural gas shipments into the mix.

In a related note, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski talked with both McCain and Obama, and the sick old man is gave assurances that the program would progress under him, but Obama refused to say anything.

The fact is that the Russians are right. This missile base is being located in a place spectacularly ill suited to defend against Iran.

The only way that the sites could be located any further from Iran is if they were in the Baltic states.

Were the missile sights located in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, or Turkey, it would provide better protection from an Iranian strike.

What this is about is the desire by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to recreate the evil Russian empire for electoral benefit, and, for Condi Rice specifically, to recreate relevance in her area of expertise.

African Leaders Upset on EU Immigration Proposals

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This is not surprising if you were running a country whose economy, because of European colonialism, was a basket case, and remittances from illegal aliens in Europe were keep said economy afloat, you would condemn stricter immigration rules too.

The basic facts are these: A nation has a right to control the flow of immigration into that country, and the goal of immigration should be no illegal immigration.

If these goals were focused on, as opposed having the discussion devolving into a fight between open borders “jobs we won’t do” types and racist nativists, then policy and enforcement would be both more effective and more humane, because it would focus on the employers of illegals, as opposed to use of state security forces to harass illegal aliens.

Sweden Tying Procurement of Gripen to Aggressive Export Program

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Sweden is planning to transition from its earlier model Gripens to the more capable E/F models, (Paid Subscription Required) with improved payload and range capabilities.

The idea is that SAAB will find it easier to sell the aircraft abroad if the line is already for the Swedish military.

I still think that this aircraft is a winner simply because it so much cheaper to own and operate than its competition.

By mid next year, they should be testing the AESA radar, improved avionics, and the ability to carry larger external tanks.

A Possible Approach to a Federal System for Healthcare

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I tend to think that a solution to the US healthcare crisis may very originate from the states, where competition for jobs and businesses would push this along*.

As such, this raises the question of “health tourism” between the states, where people from one state would go to a state with more generous healthcare provisions.

It turns out that the EU is dealing with this problem right now:

European Union citizens will be able to receive most health care treatment anywhere in the 27-nation bloc without getting prior authorization under a long-awaited draft law published Wednesday.

Postponed for months because of fears in some countries of a large-scale increase in “health tourism,” the plan could extend options available to EU citizens who live in countries where waiting lists are long.

But the entitlement applies only to procedures that are publicly funded in EU citizens’ home states and reimbursement would be only up to the amount the procedure would cost in that country.

Obviously, there will be some bugs as this is implemented, but equally as obvious is the fact that by the time we get something here, the Europeans will have worked out those bugs, and we can benefit from their experience.

*Once the Erisa preemption clause is repealed, anyway.

Russia’s Medvedev Says US “Basically in Depression”

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I think that his assesment may be closer to reality than most of us would like to think:

Russia’s new president, Dmitri Medvedev, less swaggering than his predecessor but as touchy about criticism from abroad, said in an interview that an America in “essentially a depression” was in no position to lecture other countries on how to conduct their affairs.

With soaring oil revenues bolstering the Russian economy and Kremlin confidence, Medvedev brushed aside American criticism of his country’s record on democracy and human rights. He also said that a revived Russia had a right to assume a larger role in a world economic system that he suggested should no longer be dominated by the United States.

If, in 2001, he had said this, most of the world would have been stunned and appalled at the concept that US hegemony is failing.

Today, I think that there are a lot of silent nods and smiles, because the Europeans understand what it means in a monopolar world if the single hyper-power is run by a group of madmen.

More Allegations that Dutch JSF Competition is a Fig Leaf

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‘Besluit voor JSF is allang genomen’, or you can read the English translation here.*

While the dutch have attempted to get Eurofighter, Dassault, and SAAB to bid in competition, the problem has always been that they are currently throwing a lot of money at the F-35 JSF that won’t be coming back to them if they buy another aircraft.

They’ve sunk $800 million into this, and unless costs spiral completely out of control, I’d put that at 45%, they are stuck with the plane.

*I don’t speak a word of Dutch. I read a synopsis and used Google to translate the original.

Polish Will Not Sign EU Treaty

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I think that this will be in the long run a good thing for the EU. The behavior of the EU nations, particularly Sarkozy in France, suggesting that the Irish must re vote their referendum plays into all the worst stereotypes of the EU as a fundamentally anti-Democratic institution.

The fact that Polish President Lech Kaczynski is refusing to sign the treaty pretty much puts a stake in the heart of all these efforts, and makes it far more likely that other governments will take similar actions, because they now have political cover.

The point is very simple: If you want to forge a governance document, and what you come up with is so complex that literally no one in the world fully understands all of it, and your response to failed referenda to approve it is simply to restructure the agreement so that there is very little public input, you are being an idiot.

When your policy is rejected by the people that you ostensibly represent, taking the people that you ostensibly represent out of the picture is dangerously misguided.

Airbus A400M Rollout Yesterday

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I agree with Bill Sweetman’s assesment (see also here), that this is a sweetspot for tactical airlift.

Looking at the picture’s, it’s clear that the aircraft is about twice the size of a C-130, and half the size of a C-17, and it’s got a lot of tire, which translates to good rough field performance.

The only real competitor out there is the AN-70 (picture below), which carries about 10 more tons, but has somewhat shorter ranges at a similar load out, but the Russians and the Ukrainians need to fund it past the one remaining prototype (see bottom picture).

Comparison:

A400M

An-70

Empty Weight (kg)

70,000

66,230

Max Gross Weight(kg)

145,000

141,000

Speed (km/h)

780

780

Max Payload (kg)

37,000

47,000

Range w/20 t Payload

6,600

3,300

Ferry Range (km)

8,000

9,300

I would note that with its contra-rotating props, the An-70 is a lot louder, and would therefore likely be unacceptable for the partners in EADS, France, Italy, Germany, and Spain.

Also, there are provisions for aerial refueling the An-70 in the pictures that I’ve seen.

On the minus side for the A400M is that it’s engines are behind schedule, and so it will be a while before it flies and ships.

A400M

A400M

AN-70

Unbelievably F&%$ing Bad Ideas: London Stock Exchange Edition

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So it appears the bright young (but evil) men from Lehman have been talking to the bright young (but evil) men from the London Stock Exchange, and they will be working together to make our world a worse place:

London Stock Exchange Group said Thursday that it would create a pan-European trading system in partnership with Lehman Brothers, as the exchange sought to regain its leading role in the region.

The deal creates a system for so-called dark liquidity pool trading. The exchange, known as the LSE, said the trading facility, to be named Baikal, would be open to other investors and was expected to begin operating in the first quarter of 2009. Lehman, based in New York, operates its own dark pool network. It is bringing sophisticated trading technology and an established customer base to the table.

……..

Dark liquidity pools are off-market trading networks where large orders can be executed anonymously, without divulging prices to public exchanges. Off-market trading has always existed in the form of over-the-counter transactions, but the technology now exists to bring investors together electronically in anonymity. Dark liquidity in European equities is growing rapidly, according to the LSE, and currently accounts for around €12 billion, or nearly $19 billion, in daily trading value.

…….

…..

David Shrimpton, head of equity market development at the London Stock Exchange, said that the LSE was hoping to bring other investors aboard as partners, and the response to the announcement had been “very positive.”

He said it might be possible for a quite a few trading systems to co-exist. “You’ve got 50 broker dark pools in the U.S.,” he added, “and they share about 10 percent of the market.”

…..

Yep. There’s a recommendation. Let’s get into a new anonymous and unregulated type of exchange pioneered by the Americans, whose toxic financial products currently threaten to poison the world financial systems.

Evil, unregulated, dangerous, and will likely be disasterous.

Sarko Runs into Buzz Saw Over Defense White Paper

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Nicolai Sarkosy has proposed a massive restructuring of the French military. He would cut about 1/5 of the military’s manpower, tie the military much more tightly into a pan-European framework, close African bases, and rejoin the NATO integrated military command.

This is a very big deal, and I think that I agree, at least partially, with Robert Fox’s analysis, that a large part of this is about creating a more European framework, which would reduce US influence. (See also here)

This will, however, create a firestorm. The independence of the French military command from the US has been a centerpiece of the center-right Gaullists in France, the center-left Socialists always being more friendly to the US, so he is moving against his base, and the generals are flipping out, having published an anonymous essay in Le Figaro under the pseudonym of Surcourf, “attacked the new defence policy as amateurish, incoherent and full of gimmicks.”

Alain Juppé objected strenuously too, noting that, “Gaullism is not dead, at least in the minds of some people.”

US Talking With Lithuania About Missile Interceptor Location

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It appears that because the Poles are getting cold feet, or demanding more for the base, they are talking with Lithuania about locating the missiles there.

This means a number of things:

  1. The relatively new Polish government is not being as cooperative as they would like.
  2. That most other nations are not interested (the Lithuanians really hate the Russians)
  3. That this missile defense installation is directed against the Russians, and not the Iranians.

The last point is simple: If you have a sub optimal location, one that is too far north to protect parts of Turkey, Greece, and Italy, starting negotiations with a country that is further north, and hence less well suited to intercepting Iranian missiles, but just as well suited to intercepting a Russian strike.

What is going on is simple: This is Republicans trying to recreate the cold war, because it benefits them politically.