Here we have a “Real Cost of Living Index” of 9.5% in the UK.
Category: Europe
Not Getting it in the EU
Looking at this report on the responses to the failure of the Irish referendum on the new EU treaty, it’s clear that the many of the movers and shakers simply don’t get what their problem is.
I am generally not a big fan of the referendum as a process, but it is a valid process, and the degree that the Eurocrats are claiming that it is somehow illegitimate, they are reinforcing every negative stereotype about them.
The problem is quite simple, and has 3 parts:
- The new constitution is too damn complex. At 250 pages, no one understands all of its sections, and so this breeds distrust.
- The response to the failure of the last constitution, where France and the Netherlands had referenda that failed was to eliminate referenda, which further breeds distrust in the process.
- Among the Eurocrats, there seems to be the idea that the decision making structures of the EU must be insulated from politics, which means that they are insulated from democracy, which further breeds distrust.
Simply put, in order to update the EU governance structures such that they will win the support of the public, or at least the Irish public, since any change in Ireland mandates a referenda, these structures must be seen as less opaque and more democratic.
Ireland Rejects EU Treaty
They voted it down in a referendum.
There have been a couple of problems with the EU efforts to streamline how they operate:
- There appears to be an organizational insulate many senior career bureaucrats from “political interference”, which means insulating their decisions from democracy, which was seen as a negative by the Irish voters because it is a negative.
- The voters are looking at a 250+ page document, and they have no confidence that anyone can understand what it means.
If the EU comes back with a document where decision making rests in the hands of elected representatives, and one that is short enough to understand, they will likely get approval.
The US constitution is under 10 pages. There is no reason for a governing document to be that long.
Noise and Existing Hangars Loom Large in Norwegian Fighter Competition
Norway is deciding between the upgraded Gripen-N and F-135 for a replacement for its F-16 fleet, and it appears that the F-35 may be significantly larger and noisier than they would like(Paid Subscription Required).
Aircraft noise and politically sensitive basing options may become decisive factors in Norway’s selection process for a new fighter aircraft to replace the country’s Lockheed Martin F-16s.
New information received from the two remaining contenders (Lockheed Martin’s F-35A and Saab’s enhanced Gripen-N) indicates that one (understood to be the F-35) is “significantly more noisy” than the other, senior government and military sources here say.
The information could mean that Norway’s Bodo Main Air Station, located right outside a major population center, gets ruled out as a future operating base if the F-35 is selected. Bodo is one of two active fighter bases in Norway, the other one being Oerland, which is in a sparsely populated area 50 mi. from Trondheim.
….
At Oerland, too, the F-35 appears to have one disadvantage compared to Gripen, which is that the U.S. jet is too bulky to fit inside the hardened aircraft shelters there (those at Bodo are larger). “The question is,” [State Secretary for Defense Espen Barth ]Eide allows, “does that really matter at a time when the trend is to no longer operate out of hardened facilities?”
Given that the F-35 is more than twice the gross weight, and roughly twice the thrust of the Gripen-N, basic physics say that it will be noisier.
Italy to Sign on Dotted Line for JSF
It looks like Italy will sign a contract for 2 F-35s this month (Paid Subscription Required) as a part of the, “initial operational test and evaluation phases of the JSF program”.
This is no surprise. Italy has always been on board, though some questions remain, specifically it’s mix between conventional and STOVL variants, and whether final checkout prior to delivery will be done in Italy.
France To Defer Second Carrier
Sarkosy has indicated that France is likely to push back procurement of a second carrier by 2-3 years: (Paid Subscription Required) for budget reasons.
Bacically, he’s saying that the decision will be pushed back until 2011-2012, which means that service entry would be delayed until 2017-2018.
Russian Warns Ukraine on NATO Membership
He says that it will be a breach of their friendship treaty.
As I’ve said before, the westward expansion of NATO, in violation of our promise to Gorbachev in the 1990s, is a big mistake, and a large reason for recent Russian paranoia and bellicosity.
Putin: Russia Opposed to NATO Expansion in Principle
This statement is not in any way surprising. The Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, have always seen NATO as a spear pointed at them.
That is why they demanded, and got, promises that following the reunification of Germany that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO.
Unfortunately, this promise was promptly ignored, and countries have been added to NATO with abandon, and the Russians see this as a ring of steel intended to threaten and pacify them.
There is nothing that has contributed to the bellicose nature of current Russian foreign policy as much. They are completely justified in seeing this as a threat and a provocation.
French Defense Procurement Faces Draconian Cuts
It currently looks like France will be engaging in large wholesale cuts in its defense procurement, with the, “Rafale (from 294 to 200), a second aircraft carrier (PA2) (cancellation), and FREMM multimission frigates (17 to 12)”, being target for significant cuts.
At its core, someone needs to recognize that new weapons systems have become too damn expensive, with costs outpacing the ability to pay for them.
House Armed Services Committee Votes to Cut European Missile Defense Program
The HASC has voted to cut $220 million from the Bush administration’s request for their European missile defense program, which would place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, and the radar in the Czech Republic.
I think that this is less about the program in and of itself, and more about the diplomatic consequences of proceeding, particularly because it would allow a lame duck to tie his successor’s hands on this contentious issue:
Democrats argued that the European missile plan should not be rushed. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, a Democrat from South Carolina, says the program would divert funds from other U.S. defense needs, and possibly tie the hands of a new president.
“What we need to strike here is a balance, enough of a commitment to the project to let the Poles and Czechs know that we are not backing down on them, that the thing is still there it is still viable, still in the works, yet not so much commitment at this point that the next president, whoever he or she may be, does not have the flexibility to review this commitment,” Spratt said.
This has always been a dubious plan, as it does not cover much of the southern tier of NATO, and I believe that is more driven towards making Russia paranoid and hostile toward the US, because the Republicans believe that a new Cold War benefits them electorally.
The Senate voted to fully fund the program, so it will have to be resolved in conference committee.
Don’t Cry for Me Italy, You May Have Silvio Berlusconi, but We Have George W. Bush
Silvio Belusconi has appointed Mara Carfagna, a “32-year-old former Miss Italy contestant and television showgirl”, to the post of equal opportunities minister in his cabinet, with the expected results, she is rejecting a gay pride march in Bologna in June, “gay prides are pointless.”
It appears that she thinks that there is no anti-gay bigotry in Italy.
A real candidate for Olbermann’s “Worst Person’s” segment.
Norway Protests: We Are Having a Real Fighter Competition
The Norwegian air force chief of staff Major General Stein Erik Nodeland is now aggressively combating the idea that Norwas has already decided to buy the F-35 JSF.
This perception is why Eurofighter pulled out of the bid about a year ago, leaving the improved Gripen as the only other competitor.
I think that if one looks at the bid process objectively, there certainly are segements of the Norwegian air defense establishment who have settled on the JSF, to the extent that they are using Lockheed-Martin F-35 powerpoint slides in their presentations, though there are indications that the some members of Parliament are not amused.
Dutch to Curbe Excessive Executive Pay
This is a a good start on a very serious problem, and pay of Dutch executives is on the order of 1/4 that of US executives.
The Dutch finance minister, Wouter Bos, sent a bill to parliament to crack down on this, and I agree with his sentiments:
“I believe cohesion in society is not served by inexplicable inequalities,” Bos said at a recent seminar of center-left politicians, held at a country-house hotel north of London. “Public support for entrepreneurship around the globe is eroded if you let this continue, and this is not in the interests of our economy or entrepreneurship.”
His proposal would place a 50% tax on golden parachutes in excess of €500,000 (about $800,000), and, “would increase by 15 percent the employer tax contributions to company pensions for executives who make €500,000 a year or more.” (Not exactly clear on the specifics of Dutch pension law, so I would appreciate an explanation here)
In our system of economics, wages are very much a zero sum game, with a fixed pool of money for compensation, and the mega-compensation that exists takes money from everyone else.
I remember once running the numbers on Michael Eisner’s $550 million pay package in the mid 1990s. It came to something like $6000 for every employee of Disney, and had that money been distributed to the employees, there would have been a payback in terms of less turnover and a higher quality employee that would have increased profits.
Of course, they find some rich guy, in this case Ad Scheepbouwer, who got a €1 million ($1.6 million) bonus to argue that it will create an environment unfriendly to entrepreneurs:
Scheepbouwer argues that the Dutch government now, with its proposed limits, is encouraging a climate that penalizes entrepreneurs.
“For really talented and really exceptional performers this is not a very attractive place,” he said. “It is not accepted that people are outside the normal. The only people that are accepted outside the normal are musicians or football players.”
The my answer:
- These people are not entrepreneurs. They are highly compensated employees.
- The “talented and exceptional” bit is largely a myth, as shown by the financial executives with billion dollar packages who are now failing abysmally in the financial world. People get to where they are because of connections and luck at least as much skill.
- So you’re telling me that you would not do it for €1 million/year? That you have to have €20 million, or €100 million, or €1 billion?
This is another toxic export of the American capitalism model, where highly compensated executives sit on each others’ boards of directors, and vote each other raises.
UK Home Foreclosures at 15 Year High
Foreclosures are up 16% over a year ago. It’s not just the US.
Of course, the UK has in recent years hewed as closely as possible to the US in terms of banking and financial regulation, hence my frequent references to the contagion of Anglo-Saxon capitalism.
Georgia-Russia War of Words Reaches Crescendo
There are now statements from representatives in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia that Russia will be taking over full control of military operations, and the Georgian foreign minister is claiming that they are near to war with Russia.
Again, let me say that much of this* is a direct result of NATO’s expansion eastward, in violation of agreements, which has fed Russia’s long tradition of xenophobia and paranoia, and hence has led to these actions.
*Though there is an aspect of Russia attempting to create a sphere of influence in the area too.
This is Not a Bug, This is a Feature
One of the consequences of the bellicose and incompetent foreign policy put forth by Bush and His Evil Minions™ is the increasingly paranoid and militaristic foreign policy of Russia.
Perhaps the most extreme example is the return of missiles and tanks to the May Day (Victory Day) parade.
I have concluded that this is not a result of incompetence on the part of Republicans. This is actually one of their goals, because by restarting the cold war, they can create a climate that benefits themselves politically.
For Europe’s Middle-Class, Stagnant Wages Stunt Lifestyle – New York Times
The New York times has an article about how the European middle class is seeing its wages stagnate and the standard of living plateau or decrease.
They don’t bother to give a reason, but strongly imply that it’s Europe’s stultified economy, as opposed to those dynamic Anglo-Saxon ones, even though one of the examples given is in the UK.
That’s the standard line, too much regulation causes wages to stagnate.
But if one looks at Europe, and the US, median wages have stagnated because of deregulation.
Simply put, when an executive gets over a billion dollars in remuneration, this is money that does not go toward other people’s wages and benefits, and deregulation and reductions in marginal tax rates increase wage disparities.
This is not happening because Reaganomimics has not been adopted at some level, this is happening it has been adopted at some level.
Labour Gets Pummeled in Local Elections in the UK
Brown and Labor actually got fewer votes than the Lib-Dems.
The aftermath of Tony Blair, selfish triangulating politics, which will have a similar effect on Labor that Bill Clinton did on the Dems 1n 1994.
I’d like to see the Lib Dems hold their 2nd place position, or even hit 1st place for the parliamentary elections, but I put their chances at slim and none, as they have been unable to capitalize on the fact that they are the only major party to call for an immediate pullout from Iraq.
They are the sad sacks of UK politics.
Georgia on My Mind
Nope, we’re not talking about the southern state, but the birthplace of Josef Stalin.
We are having problems. It appears that NATO is warning Russia not to interfere in Georgia, and Russia is warning NATO not to interfere in Georgia.
Fundamentally, this is an outgrowth of NATO’s disastrous policy of expansion, which was driven by post Berlin Wall euphoria and the lobbying of the various national defense industries, who saw a move to NATO as being a way to sell some expensive toys to the former Warsaw Pact nations.
Before the fall of the USSR, one of the conditions that Russia placed on the reunification of Germany was that NATO expand no further eastward. The fact that it has, and that the countries added no use for NATO but as a sword against Russia, contributes to the current bellicose and paranoid nature of Russian foreign relations.
Russian Gets New Build Tu-160
I believe that this was made from parts manufactured at or around the end of the USSR, but this does represent a serious dedication towards Russia rearming.
Basically, think B-1, only faster (Mach 1.05 or so down on the deck) and bigger.