Category: Finance

Jail, please

No Comments

Gee, the SEC has determined that Citicorp CEO Chuck Prince and Chairman of the Board, and Clinton era Secretary of the Treasury, Robert Rubin both knew that the numbers that they were feeding investors about their top tranches of mortgage backed securities were crap:

Charles O. “Chuck” Prince and Robert Rubin were among Citigroup Inc. officials who knew 2007 losses were mounting on mortgage assets that U.S. regulators have faulted the bank for not disclosing, a court filing shows.

Prince, the bank’s chief executive officer at the time, and Rubin, who was then chairman, knew the highest-rated segments of subprime mortgage-backed securities were the source of about $200 million in new losses in October 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission said yesterday in a filing at federal court in Washington. In July, the agency accused the bank and two other executives of failing to disclose $40 billion in subprime assets before losses surged. It didn’t target Prince and Rubin.

Bob Rubin has been Gordon Gecko for a very long time, and if the Obama administration wants to show some real commitment to financial reform, ramping up criminal investigations of his behavior would be a very good idea.

If you put a former Secretary of the Treasury in jail, it goes a long way toward cleaning up the system.

I Still Think That The Appointment of Elizabeth Warren is an Exercise in PR, Not Real Change, But …

No Comments

Both Felix Salmon and Barney Frank seem to think that this is the real deal, with Felix noting that, “she has the authority to get the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau up and running as quickly as she can,” and Representative Frank is saying that, “There’s no possibility she would take something like this unless she was fully empowered to do the job.”

Me, I’m with On the other side Yves Smith’s analysis, which says that this is all theater to create the illusion of Obama as a financial reformer:

  • While the bureau is organized under the Treasury, and before it is placed under the Federal Reserve, it has no rule making authority.
  • The organization is operating for an organization, the Federal Reserve that is not only, “subservient to the regulator that is in charge of looking out for the industry,” but is in large part owned by the industry. (look at the structure of the regional Fed banks, they are owned by the big banks)
  • This is an admission that she will not be appointed to the position, so she is already a bit of a lame duck, and will be completely one as soon as someone is nominated for the post.
  • She has admitted that she has no intention of serving as head of the CPFB, which means that she is even more of a lame duck.
  • Many of the organizational and personnel decisions will be deferred to whoever is the appointee.
  • Once a nominee is named, she becomes completely irrelevant.
  • Geithner and Summers still run the show, and are who Obama listens to.*

I’m with Ms. Smith’s last ‘graph:

Needless to say, it would be better if I were proven wrong, but it looks like Warren has made a Faustian bargain. I can only hope if that is the case that she moves quickly to cut her losses.

Simply put, how many times has the Obama administration taken the side of Main Street over Wall Street?

I’ll give you hint, it’s a non-positive integer.

She will be out in 6 months, and my guess is that she will discover that she cannot get her phone calls answered on November 3.

*But remember, the Cossacks work for the Czar.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!! (Delayed for Holiday)

No Comments

I’ve been off line for Yom Kippur, so this is a day late.

And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. ISN Bank, Cherry Hill, NJ
  2. Bank of Ellijay, Elllijay, GA
  3. First Commerce Community Bank, Douglasville, GA
  4. The Peoples Bank, Winder, GA
  5. Bramble Savings Bank,Milford, OH
  6. Maritime Savings Bank, West Alis, WI

So, after 3 weeks with only one bank closing, we have 6 this week, plus the one credit union closed below.

This number appears to be on the fast track for breaking 150 this year.

Full FDIC list

And here are the credit union closings:

  1. Industries Puerto Rico Federal Credit Union,

Full NCUA list

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Why is the Federal Reserve Freaking Out?

3 Comments

It appears that the Federal Reserve is putting out signals that it will be engaging in more quantitative easing (printing money) toward the end of this year:

The U.S. Federal Reserve could announce a new program of asset purchases to support a weak economy as early as November, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“We don’t expect this at the Sept. 21 meeting, but in November or December there’s certainly a possibility that it will be announced,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at the bank, said Tuesday. He added the Fed is likely to buy U.S. Treasurys worth around $1.0 trillion to kick-start the economy.

Maybe I am being alarmist, but I as Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Fed have already proven themselves to be remarkably blase about the unemployment levels, so I have to assume that they are expecting to see someting major shake loose in the financial markets, and they want to restart their sh%$pile for cash program to forestall this.

It might not be an economic or financial issue that is getting them to move though, as they are currently hamstrung by the intersection of the law and Barack Obama’s general unwillingness to challenge republicans on the stonewalling of even the most benign nominees.

As a result, 3 nominees for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors are cooling their heels, and with the retirement of Donald Kohn, the board membership is down to 4 members, which means that they cannot make the emergency loans that they did following the collapse of Lehman:

Here’s a scary thought: Let’s say the European sovereign debt crisis flares up again, and one or two Euro banks fail. (Not a bank like UBS or Deutsche Bank, but a medium-sized bank like Bank of Greece or a Landesbank.) That, in turn, causes a U.S. money market fund — many of which have large exposures to Euro banks — to “break the buck,” which leads to another run on money market funds.

The Fed would be powerless to help. The Fed’s emergency lending authority (the famed Section 13(3)) requires that any emergency lending facility to non-banks be approved “by the affirmative vote of not less than five members” of the Fed Board of Governors. Currently, there are only four members of the Fed board: Bernanke, Warsh, Elizabeth Duke, and Dan Tarullo. Donald Kohn retired earlier this month, and the Senate has yet to vote on Obama’s three nominees (Janet Yellen, Peter Diamond, and Sarah Bloom Raskin).

Indeed.

Of course, Obama could fix this by making a recess apportionment, I would suggest that he actually appoint Jamie Galbraith, because it would freak the Republicans out, but he doesn’t have the guts for that, or much else.

Basel III

No Comments
Click for full size

Additional Capital Requirements


Phase In Schedule

I’ve been looking at the Basel III international banking proposals, and I find them rather weak tea.

The 10¢ tour of the proposal is that they are requiring more capital, 4.5% tier 1 capital (basically capital that can be redeemed for cash in a market essentially immediately), a further capital conservation buffer, and a “counter-cyclical” buffer that would kick in when times are good.

This will all be phased in over a 5 year period starting in 2013.

As to what it all means, I agree with Yves Smith that, “the reality is that a Basel III world will not look hugely different to the one from which the last crisis sprang.”

In particular, there is next to nothing on synchronizing accounting standards, which will send banks to places where they can call a bouquet of flowers a Tier 1 asset, does not deal with the shadow banking system in any meaningful way, and ignores the vast pit of putrescence that is the ratings agencies.

I Called It

No Comments
This is what the betrayal feels like to me, and I never believed in him.

Remember when I said that Obama would not recess appoint Elizabeth Warren, or use the law to allow her to be the interim head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, because that’s what the DFH’s* would want?

Well, I was right. The White House is now shopping its plan to the media, and ABC’s Jake Tapper has the scoop:

President Obama will announce this week that Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard Law School professor who first proposed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, will be named to a special position reporting to both him and to the Treasury Department and tasked with heading the effort to get the new federal agency standing, a knowledgeable Democrat told ABC News.

So she will be a “special advisor”, not a recess appointment, nor the better alternative of an interim appointment.

So, she won’t have authority to:

  • Set budgets.
  • Hire staff.
  • Fire staff.
  • Explicitly write policy.
  • Direct investigations.

But I guess that she will be writing some really nice policy papers.

Matthew Yglesias nails what is going on:

With Warren, Obama showing real innovation in developing odd, satisfying to nobody compromises.

If this is what demoralizes your base. They follow this stuff closely, and the people who stuff envelopes and go door to door are the sorts who do follow this stuff closely, and it takes about 3 minutes to realize that this is a canard.

Honestly, appointing Warren is a no pain all gain alternative, because the American people hate the bankers, but they are afraid of offending people.

<Facepalm>

*Dirty F%$#ing Hippies.

How Barack Obama Could Appoint Elizabeth Warren, and Why He Won’t

No Comments

Under the Dodd-Frank bill, there is a provision that allows Timothy Geithner to appoint a head to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau until such time as the Senate approves a nominee:

According to the bill’s language, the Treasury Secretary has sole authority to build the new agency before it’s ultimately transferred to the Federal Reserve. That includes anointing a person to head the effort on his behalf, and under his authority. The interim head would serve until the President’s nominee is confirmed by the Senate.

That person could be Elizabeth Warren.

And the legislation doesn’t appear to contain a deadline for a Presidential nomination, experts say, which means Warren could start the agency from scratch, put her people in, begin cracking down on predatory and abusive lenders, and initiate a culture that would put consumers’ interests above those of the nation’s most powerful financial institutions.

What is interesting here is that this is not a recess appointment, and so is not subject to the limitations, such as the requirement that their appointment expires at the end of the current Congress in January, 2010.

Theoretically, if Warren were appointed, she could serve for decades without Senatoriual approval.

So, Warren could be appointed, and be on the job, tomorrow, and the only way to remove her would be for the Republicans not to filibuster her in the Senate, and hope that she is defeated by 51 votes on the floor, which won’t happen, because any Democrat who votes against her has the party base campaigning against him or her in the next election cycle.

So, why don’t I think that Obama will do this? Because in so doing, he would energize the Democratic Party base, who would then come out and vote for Democrats in 2010:

Within hours and possibly minutes I expect the president will name Elizabeth Warren to lead the new consumer protection agency, and if he does, the Democratic base will erupt and turn out to vote in far greater numbers than any current poll suggests.*

The thing is that I believe that there are two dominant schools of thought in the White House:

  • Those who believe that appealing the the base will always be a net loser in terms of elections. (Rahm)
  • Those who actively hate the Democratic Party base, which they see as irrational, unrealistic, a part of the hyper-partisan atmosphere in Washington, and terrifying to the fictitious middle of the road voters in off year elections. (Barack Obama)

Basically, in order for such an act to be taken, the core philosophies of the power centers in the White House have to be repudiated by the people who hold them.

This won’t happen, because even if these decisions help the party, they diminish the power of Emanuel and Obama’s philosophies within the party, which makes it a sort of perverse manifestation of the Iron Law of Institutions, (on edit see this Google link, because one of the purity asshole brigade at Wikipedia deleted the link) which states that, “the people who control institutions care first and foremost about their power within the institution rather than the power of the institution itself.”

*I would note that the author is already wrong, having posted this on Thursday, September 9, and we have had no announcement.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!! (on Saturday Night)

No Comments

I’ve been off line for Rosh Hashana, so this is a day late.

And the FDIC is back in action, albeit in a low key way, with only 1 bank closure:

  1. Horizon Bank , Bradenton, FL

I am not sure why a small suburb in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area has had 4 banks fail in the past 4 years, see the Full FDIC list, but only one bank failure is a slow day.

Also, here is the Full NCUA list of credit union closings.

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Actually, it may have more use. There seems to be a pattern of a lull, and then an outbreak, so Yom Kippur, next Friday, may be a bad day for banks.

A Court Case to Watch on HAMP

1 Comment

A federal court in California has ruled that a borrower is an intended 3rd party beneficiary of the HAMP program, and so has standing to sue the bank for acting in bad faith:

This is getting interesting. A judge in U.S. District Court, Southern District of California, has issued an order that may just answer a few prayers of many homeowners. Here’s what happened…

A San Diego homeowner, by the name of Ademar Marques, was applying for a loan modification, and, although it might be hard for many readers to believe, his servicer, Wells Fargo, dba, America’s Servicing Company, wasn’t being very nice about it, or even cooperating at all. It seems that Wells Fargo wanted to just skip all of those messy and time-consuming formalities required when considering someone for a loan modification, and just jump straight into foreclosure.

Mr. Marques filed a lawsuit against Wells Fargo’s America’s Servicing Company because he read about the Home Affordable Modification Program (“HAMP”) and the program’s guidelines said that his servicer was “REQUIRED” to screen him for a hardship, and consider him for a loan modification. He also alleged that he qualified for the loan modification program based on all of the published guidelines, and that his servicer, a participating servicer in HAMP never said that his loan could not be modified, they just refused to modify it, and instituted foreclosure proceedings.

Well, I never! The gall of some servicers. Have you ever heard of such a thing? Actually, I have. But not more than 30-40 times a day for the last two years.

The court ruled that as a participant in HAMP, the bank was obligated to review Ademar Marques case, and in not doing so, they breached their HAMP contract, and so do not have the right to foreclose.

Here is the money quote:

Are you digging this? Best I can make out, if you’re the intended third party beneficiary to a federal contract you can sue for breach of contract. So, if it says in the contract that the servicer “MUST” do something, and that servicer doesn’t do it… you the borrower may be able to sue the servicer for breaching that contract.

If Wells appeals, and if I were them, I wouldn’t, because settling in this one case loses them a mortgage, and if the court of appeals rules against them, it becomes case law for a large swath of California, but bankers are not know for cutting their losses.

If there is an appeal, and Mr. Marques prevails, then it is certain that Wells Fargo will appeal to the Supreme Court, and I would bet 5 to 1 odds that if it gets that high, then the Obama administration will argue for the malefactor banks, because that’s how they roll.

CrowdQuery: Greatest Mistake of the Crisis ? | The Big Picture

No Comments
I’m with The Bloodhound Gang, on Banks,
Burn Motherf%$#er, Burn! (NSFW)

Barry Ritholtz asks his readers what was the biggest mistake made by regulators during the financial crisis, he thinks that it was the Bear bailout, because it led banks to think that they were invincible, but he asks, “Was Lehman the biggest error? Fannie/Freddie Nationalization? Something else in entirely?”

I’ll go with something else entirely.

We should have let the festering pile of arrogance, ignorance, greed, and evil that was circling the bowl go under, and replace it with a taxpayer run lending facility for the rest of the economy.

We would have spend a lot less money than we have, there would have been more lending to the real economy, and the corrupt elites that got us into this mess would have been unseated, which, as Simon Johnson, former IMF chief economist, is what is really necessary in these cases, that these politically connected elites be broken.

Sergey Aleynikov Gets One Count Dismissed

No Comments

He is accused of stealing Goldman Sachs’ proprietary high frequency trading software, but one of the three counts against him, for unauthorized computer access, has been dismissed.

I’ve always maintained that HFT is actually illegal front-running, or at least it was illegal before Treasury Secretary Robert “Why am I not in jail?” Rubin got his hands on the regulatory regime, and as such, I have always wondered if there was a cover-up of some kind, seeing as how the prosecutors have admitted that this code could be used to manipulate the markets.

A twist in the case that I was unaware of was that Sergey is not the only one the Feds are going after on this, as, “Two months after Aleynikov’s indictment, prosecutors charged former Societe Generale trader Samarth Agrawal with stealing computer code used in high-frequency proprietary trading in the French bank’s New York office.”

I am beginning to think that there is an official policy of allowing “systemically important” banks to skim profits from the markets in order to bolster balance sheets that are far shakier than has been revealed, but they want to keep this technology out of the hands of the small fry, because it would make the flash crash look like a weenie roast if too many people got their hands on this technology.

Background here

Why the Hell is the US Government Supporting the Karzai Government?

No Comments

The largest bank in Afghanistan, Da Kabul Bank, is in the process of imploding due in a miasma of corruption and self dealing, as ordinary depositors rush to pull out their money from the institution following a number of stories revealing their corruption:

The Karzai government is corrupt and rotten to the core. Not a single US soldier should die to prop it up. The lie that we are fighting “al–Qaeda” in Afghanistan needs to be exposed. The US and NATO are fighting four or five groups of Pashtun insurgents, some of them until fairly recently US allies. The goal of the fighting is to keep the Karzai government from falling to the guerrillas and to train up an army and police force that could go on defending Kabul. The Afghanistan National Army from all accounts has poor morale. No wonder. What Afghan soldier or policeman would die for a ponzi scheme?

But Juan Cole’s outrage at this was premature, because it is actually worse than he first reported, because after the government seized control of the bank, as the Washington Post hed states, “Officials freeze assets of Kabul Bank shareholders, excepting Karzai’s brother.”

Why we supported his continued corruption, and his election theft, I’ll never know, but enough is enough.

Get out now, because the alternative, replacing him (see Diệm, Jean Baptiste Ngô Đình) just won’t work.

Kremlin Elizabeth Warren Watching

No Comments

One of the big questions out there is who Barack Obama will appoint to appoint to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The leading candidate has always been Elizabeth Warren, who literally wrote the book on predatory finance in the age of the mega-banks, but the mega-banks, along with Tim Geithner, just don’t like her, because, she might actually, you know, protect consumers.

That being said, the democratic wing of the Democratic Party has rallied behind her to an astonishing degree, and so it has increasingly appeared that Obama will nominate her, if only to allow the nomination to be filibustered, as they did in the case of his nominee to head the Office of Legal Counsel, Dawn Johnsen.

Given just how demoralized the party base is, politics demands it.

Nothing has been announced yet though, so the press is engaging in a process similar to Kremlinology, and we have another data point: Ms. Warren has pulled out of the contract law class that she was teaching at Harvard.

I still expect that if Obama nominates Warren, he won’t fight for her, but it is beginning to look like he will nominate her.

Lifelong Peonage and Are the Main Feature

No Comments
Click for full size


Click for Ginormous Graphic

Barry Ritholtz has a useful infographic showing just how education loans have become the latest way that the banks keep us in debt slavery.

Note that the value of outstanding student loans is now larger than that of credit card debt, and its holders cannot discharge it through bankruptcy, ever.

This goes hand in hand with changes in the job market, where jobs that do not require a college to degree require a college degree to get, along with the explosion of for-profit schools that make false promises of a career in order to get you to overpay for trade school.

It really is remarkable just how predatory our society has become.

One Benefit of Dodd-Frank

No Comments

It expands the jurisdiction of the SEC with regard to the malfeasance and misfeasance of the ratings agencies by allowing them to take actions that occurred in other countries:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it plans to use new financial laws to pursue credit-rating fraud initiated overseas after dropping a case against Moody’s Corp. amid uncertainty over its authority.

The SEC’s investigation found that a Moody’s ratings committee based in Europe refused to lower inflated grades on almost $1 billion of debt in 2007, the agency said in a report released yesterday. The committee declined to correct errors produced by a flawed ratings model out of concern for the firm’s reputation, the SEC report said.

“Uncertainty regarding a jurisdictional nexus between the U.S. and the relevant ratings conduct” led the SEC to drop the probe, the agency said in the report. That uncertainty was removed by the Dodd-Frank law, enacted in July, which clarifies the SEC’s power to sue for misconduct that has a substantial effect within the U.S., the report said.

Of course, a better alternative would be to change the laws that require the ratings agencies in the first place, as they have been a complete failure.

Economics Update

No Comments

The lede has to be the ADP report showing that private employers cut 10,000 jobs in August.

Obviously, we will get the official numbers from the Feds on Friday.

On the other hand, manufacturing grew more than expected in August.

It’s kind of a mixed bag news day, with consumer spending increasing, but real incomes fell for the first time in over 6 months and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence beat estimates.

I’m not sure exactly what they are spending money on though, because car sales had the weakest August in 27 years, which would imply an aversion to big ticket purchases.

In real estate, the Case-Shiller home price index rose in June, though that’s probably more a result of the now-expired tax credit than anything else, mortgage applications rose slightly, though, unsurprisingly, more so for refinance than it did for home purchases, and construction spending was significantly lower than estimates.

In the “these are real lives that are being f%$#ed with” category, bankruptcy filings fell in August, though they still remain at a near 5 years high.

Finally, Canada’s economy slowed significantly in the 2nd quarter.

Economics Update

No Comments

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial claims fell back to what seems to be its sweet-spot, 473,000, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 3250 to 486,750, and continuing claims falling by 62,000 to 4.46 million, though emergency claims, which are not counted as continuing, rose by 268,000 to 5.86 million, so we are still seeing a jobless non–recovery, with initial claims about 100,000 more than what would be required for a recovery in the job market.

In real estate, foreclosures fell, but delinquencies rose in the 2nd quarter, which likely indicates that people are still doing worse, but the various moratoria, as well as what Atrios accurately calls the, “Treasury’s predatory lending program,” aka HAMP, is pushing the problem down the road.

Oh, and the Dow is below 10K again, which means nothing in the greater scheme of things.