Category: Finance

SEC Gives (some) Shareholders the Right to Run a Slate of Directors

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The 3-2 vote in favor of a rule allowing for shareholder nominations of directors is a good start, but as it exists now, it is very weak tea:

Shareholders won more power on Wednesday to shake up corporate boards in the United States after the financial crisis exposed weaknesses in how companies were managed.

The Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 to adopt a rule that gives shareholders an easier way to nominate company directors.

Activist shareholders who want more say on how companies are run have long sought the ability to place their nominees’ names on company proxy statements.

In theory this is a good reform, but in practice, it is way too restrictive:

Under the rule, shareholders must hold at least 3 percent of the company’s stock for at least three years to nominate directors. Shareholders must hold the stock until the date of the meeting at which director elections are held. Shareholders would be allowed to nominate up to 25 percent of companies’ boards. They would not be allowed to nominate a director if their intent were to take over or change control of the company.

Companies with less than $75 million in market capitalization would get a three-year delay in compliance, to give the SEC time to study implementation in larger companies and make adjustments, if necessary.

3% and 3 years is way to high a hurdle.

At 3% you are talking institutional investors, and probably at a ½ dozen of them to reach the threshold, and then all of them would be required to have held the stock for 3 years.

Not gonna happen, but still, the 2 ‘Phants on the panel are squealing like stuck pigs about this.

Appeals Court Denies Federal Reserve Coverup Bid

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Bloomberg filed a freedom of information act request to get information on the Fed’s bailout of banks and other financial institutions about 2 years ago, and true to form, their response to a perfectly reasonable request for information has been delay and litigation.

They lost at the circuit level, and they lost at the appeals court level, and now the appeals court has denied them an en banc rehearing, so unless the Supreme court deigns to hear the case, they are going to have to turn over the information:

The Federal Reserve will have to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court if it wants to avoid having to disclose details of its emergency lending programs to banks bailed out with taxpayer money during the financial crisis.

The U.S. 2d Circuit Court of Appeals denied the Fed’s motion on Friday to rehear the case in which Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News and News Corp’s Fox News Network sought information on the U.S. central bank’s emergency lending programs that began in late 2007.

The programs, designed to shore up the financial markets, more than doubled the Fed’s balance sheet to well over $2 trillion, especially in the wake of the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

I am not sure how much of this is just the fetish that the Federal Reserve has for secrecy, and how much is an attempt to cover up behaviors which might be illegal or otherwise appear corrupt.

My guess is that it is a bit of both.

But in either case, absent the Supreme Court taking this up, it appears that we may have some very dull reading of some rather interesting events over the next few months.

Older posts on this are here.

No, They Are Cruel People*

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I enjoy reading Felix Salmon, and I generally agree with him, but a few days ago, he had a high level and sort of (no names) off the record briefing senior Treasury Department officials, including Timmy, and they revealed that the failure that is HAMP is actually a success because by stringing desperate home owners along, they managed to milk a few more mortgage payments, and delay foreclosures for a while:

Treasury told Waldman — and told my group of bloggers, too — that HAMP, even if it was a failure, was a success. It might not have helped much in terms of its ostensible stated aim of permanently modifying millions of home loans. But it did help in at least three other ways: it gave temporary tax and payment relief to millions of homeowners; it massively reduced the rate at which homeowners in default were being foreclosed on; and, in the words of Waldman, “it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock”.

We had to save the banks, so if we destroyed a few lives, it was worth it. This is contemptible.

Maybe Andrew Breitbart should cover this, that would get Geithner fired, because Obama trembles at Breitbart’s fury.

Truth be told though, the definitive account is by Steve Waldman, and his account of this exchange is even more damning:

The conversation next turned to housing and HAMP. On HAMP, officials were surprisingly candid. The program has gotten a lot of bad press in terms of its Kafka-esque qualification process and its limited success in generating mortgage modifications under which families become able and willing to pay their debt. Officials pointed out that what may have been an agonizing process for individuals was a useful palliative for the system as a whole. Even if most HAMP applicants ultimately default, the program prevented an outbreak of foreclosures exactly when the system could have handled it least. There were murmurs among the bloggers of “extend and pretend”, but I don’t think that’s quite right. This was extend-and-don’t-even-bother-to-pretend. The program was successful in the sense that it kept the patient alive until it had begun to heal. And the patient of this metaphor was not a struggling homeowner, but the financial system, a.k.a. the banks. Policymakers openly judged HAMP to be a qualified success because it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock. I believe these policymakers conflate, in full sincerity, incumbent financial institutions with “the system”, “the economy”, and “ordinary Americans”. Treasury officials are not cruel people. I’m sure they would have preferred if the program had worked out better for homeowners as well. But they have larger concerns, and from their perspective, HAMP has helped to address those.

(emphasis mine)

I think that he is wrong. They are cruel people, and they are evil people, and they know the evil that they do, but they think that the preservation of Wall Street, and its excessive bonuses to be worth perpetrating a fraud on desperate families grasping at straws.

These people were drowning, and they knowingly threw them anvils.

*That is what Atrios said.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Community National Bank at Bartow, Barlow, FL
  2. Independent National Bank, Ocala, Fl
  3. Imperial Savings and Loan Association, Martinsville, VA,
  4. Shore Bank, Chicago, IL
  5. Pacific State Bank, Stockton, CA
  6. Butte Community Bank, Chico, CA
  7. Los Padres Bank, Solvang, CA
  8. Sonoma Valley Bank, Sonoma, CA

Great googly moogly.

After two slow weeks, we just tied the record for most bank closings this year.

Not pretty.

Full FDIC list

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

He’s Not the Wanker of the Day……

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But only because Howard Dean gets that honor today.

Once again, it’s Chris Dodd, who continues to audition for his 7-figure lobbying gig, because after sending out signals that she was a great candidate, but not confirmable, there has been a groundswell of support that appears to be dragging the Obama administration kicking and screaming into nominating her. (I still don’t think that they will)

So now Dodd has taking a new tack, saying that he is unsure if she is qualified:

“If the president wants to name her and it goes through the hearing process, then fine, she’ll have my support,” Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) told the Hartford Courant editorial board. “But she has to tell me more than just she’s a good consumer advocate or that’s she’s got a great campaign.

“It isn’t just a question of being a consumer advocate. I want to see that she can manage something, too.”

Dude, you ran for President of the United States, and you never managed anything bigger than a a Senator’s office.

<Facepalm>

Economics Update

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Click for full size

Capacity Utilization


Industrial Production
H/t Calculated Risk

Retail sales rose, but missed forecasts for July, the comment of an economist quoted in the story, “The numbers are consistent with a sluggish consumer profile,” is kind of well duh thing.

Hopefully the indications that the big banks are relaxing their lending standards for small businesses for the first time in 4 years.

This is good news, since banks have increasingly attempted to move small business customers from loans to corporate credit cards, where the fees and interest, and hence bank profits, are higher.

On the consumer side, credit card delinquencies fell to the lowest level this year, which could mean that more people are getting back on their feet (good), or that more consumers are deleveraging (mostly bad, see Thrift, Paradox of).

I’m inclined to believe that it is mostly the latter, particularly since bankruptcy filings hit a 5-year high in the 2nd quarter.

We are seeing some good news in industrial production and capacity utilization, which continue a relatively robust recovery, though a lot of this gain was increased electricity consumption from a record breaking July, though a fair amount is also autos which is an unambiguously good sign. (See also the chart pr0n)

The New York Fed’s economic activity index rose in August, but again, it missed forecasts.

In the land of the blithering idiots inflation hawks, the UK district is reporting that British CPI rose at a 3.1% annual rate, down from June’s 3.2% rate, which has the inflation hawk piggies squealing that they are missing the 2% target, but as Krugman would say, we are in a liquidity trap, we need more inflation so that real interests rates (interest – inflation) is low enough to foster growth.

I would go further than Krugman, and say that both the Bank of England and the Fed should have a 6-8% target inflation rate for the next 4 years or so.

And then we have real estate, where the market seems to be deflating like the Hindenberg* following the expiration of the home buying tax credit.

Housing starts rose, but fell well short of forecasts in July, home prices flattened out in June, and home builder confidence fell in August.

*I know that the Hindenberg did not deflate, it burnt and crashed. That’s my point of this mangled metaphor, OK?

What the Hairieriest Saroff Said

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On my brother’s all too infrequently updated blog, Stephen pointed out two articles that indicate why economics is called the “dismal science.”

He points to a Wall Street Journal article (get it through Google news, or you just get the first 2 ‘graphs) titled Hindenburg Omen Flashes Dread, where an obscure mathematical formula has somewhat dubious predictive powers:

The Omen was present at every market crash since 1987, but has also occurred many other times without an ensuing significant downturn. Market analysts said only about 25% of Omen appearances have led to stock-market declines that can be considered crashes.

So this doomsday equation has predicted something like 20 of the last 5 crashes.

The problem here is not one of economics, but rather of poor journalism.

The story is not “Astonishingly accurate algorithm predicts end of the world,” but rather, “Movers and shakers in financial markets spooked by bullsh%$ that is less accurate that checking chicken entrails.”

The second article, also from the WSJ notes that as interest rates hit record lows, companies are making record bond issues, particularly of the junk variety.

Of course if another crash is heading in, those junk bonds will be a bad investment, though if it doesn’t implode, an 8+% premium on government debt is a winner:

First Data Corp. sold $510 million of 10-year notes this week, at 9.125%, to pay down bank debt due in 2014. Peabody Energy sold $650 million of 6.5%, 10-year notes to pay off the same amount of higher-priced debt due in three years. MultiPlan Inc., a health-care cost-management provider, sold $675 million of notes this week, at 9.875%, to help fund a buyout of the company. Cott Corp., a maker of store-branded soft drinks, sold $375 million of debt at 8.125% to fund its purchase of another company, Cliffstar Corp.

But again, this is really not about economics, it’s about finance, greed, and human foibles.

To the degree that economics apply to finance, it is behavioral economics that applies: In order to understand markets, one needs to understand how they are irrational, which is in the rather quixotic juxtaposition of economics and psychology.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in 6 months, 484,000 claims, the highest number since February 20, well over forecasts of 465,000.

Additionally, the 4 week moving average jumped to 473,500 from 459,250 , though continuing claims fell by 18,000 to 4,452,000, though, as always, that reflects discouraged workers, as well as people going past the 26 week window.

In real estate, foreclosures rose again, and RealtyTrac is not anticipating a peak until some time in 2011, and mortgage rates fell to the4.44% (!), the lowest since Freddie Mac started its survey in 1971.

The Federal Open Market Committee Released its Statement Today

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They kept interest rates at effectively 0%, which is not a surprise.

What was a bit of a surprise, though they did telegraph is were the facts that their statement was significantly more downbeat, and they effectively put a halt to their gradual monetary tightening:

Federal Reserve officials made their first attempt to bolster the economy in more than a year, saying they will maintain their holdings of securities to stop money from draining out of the financial system.

The central bank will reinvest principal payments on mortgage assets it holds into long-term Treasuries after judging that “the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington.

So, as opposed to simply retiring their securities, they will roll them over, though I would differ with their characterization of 2-year treasuries are “long term”.

It’s a mild improvement on their earlier position of gradual tightening, but I’m with Paul Krugman:

I know: it’s a heck of a way to make policy. In a better world, the Fed would look at the state of the economy and do what was right, not the minimum necessary. But wishing for that kind of world is like wishing that Ben Bernanke were running the place.

Heh.

Krugman worked with Bernanke at Princeton, and because of this, he has been rather gentle with him, but I think that he is losing patience.

Full statement after break:

Press Release
Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: August 10, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee’s ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee’s policy objectives.

1. The Open Market Desk will issue a technical note shortly after the statement providing operational details on how it will carry out these transactions. Return to text

I Am Not a Finance Guy, But I Have Some Warning Signs………

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And they are:

  • Opaque markets where ask and bid prices are not known by the participants.
  • Opaque financial instruments that seem to generate return and safety at the same time.
  • Minimal disclosures.
  • Promises from the sellers that they will take care of clients without regulation.

So we see all of this in so-called structured notes:

Wall Street banks are creating the “next investment bubble” by selling opaque and unregulated structured notes to investors hunting for yield, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics.

Using the same “loophole” that allowed over-the-counter sales of collateralized debt obligations and auction-rate securities, firms are pitching illiquid structured notes whose value is partly derived from bets on interest rates, Whalen wrote today in a report.

What’s even worse:

Individual investors, who “love the higher yields” on structured notes, will lose money when benchmark interest rates climb, according to Whalen.

“We already know of two hedge funds that are being established specifically to buy this crap from distressed retail investors as and when rates start to rise,” said Whalen, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York official and co-founder of the Torrance, California-based research firm.

What this means is that when the economy starts to recover, and interest rates rise, we will see another bubble pop and push us down.

Lovely.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Ravenswood Bank, Chicago, IL

Full FDIC list

So it is a slow Friday for bank closings, but the credit union closings mostly make up for that:

  1. Norbel Credit Union, Fort Collins, CO
  2. Certified Federal Credit Union, Commerce, CA
  3. Kappa Alpha Psi, Addison, TX

The NCUA has been busy over the past week.

Full NCUA list

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose again, by 19,000 to 479,000, with four-week moving average increased by 5,250 to 458,500, and continuing claims fell by 34,000 to 4.54 million, though a lot of this may be people running out their string on normal benefits.

I would note that this number has been bouncing between 450K and 480K for a few months, and that this number is around 100,000 more than is needed for a recovery in employment.

Meanwhile, in central bank land, the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at ½%, effectively 0%, and it’s asset purchase program, aka quantitative easing, aka printing money, remains essentially unchanged.

Finally, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all time low, 4.49%. (!)

Signs of the Apocalypse, Republican Tax Cuts Edition

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Who is the latest economics notable criticizing the Republican desire for never ending tax cuts?

Why it’s 1980s wunderkind David Stockman, who was Ronald Reagan’s director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Not only does he excoriate supply side, “Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves,” mentality, he lays the financial crisis at the feet of these policies.

We are living in Bizarro world when David Stockman is the voice of reason.

Goldman S@#54

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We live in Bizarro World

Jon Stewart asks a question, “What is the appropriate response for a company that is selling its customers a sh%$ty deals, being caught on email calling them sh%$ty deals, and then being forced to pay a $550 million fine?”

Well if you are Goldman Sachs, the response is to ban profanity in employee email.

<Facepalm>

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Northwest Bank & Trust, Acworth, GA
  2. Bayside Savings Bank, Port Sainte Joe, FL
  3. Coastal Community Bank, Panama City Beach, FL
  4. The Cowlitz Bank, Longview, WA
  5. LibertyBank, Eugene, OR

It’s “only” 5 this week, which is less than either of the past 2 weeks, though above the average of 3.6/week for the year.

Full FDIC list

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Another Way That the FIRE* Sector Cheats Ordinary Americans

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If you get a large insurance payout, they won’t send you the money, they just send you a “check book,” and keep your money in an account that they hold.

Only the “check book” is not a check book, because it’s not a bank, and it’s not FDIC insured, and they pay you 1% for an account that earns them 5%:

Lohman, a public health nurse who helps special-needs children, says she had always believed that her son’s life insurance funds were in a bank insured by the FDIC. That money — like $28 billion in 1 million death-benefit accounts managed by insurers — wasn’t actually sitting in a bank.

It was being held in Prudential’s general corporate account, earning investment income for the insurer. Prudential paid survivors like Lohman 1 percent interest in 2008 on their Alliance Accounts, while it earned a 4.8 percent return on its corporate funds, according to regulatory filings.

Note that her son was a soldier killed in Afghanistan, so they are stealing from the bereaved families of fallen soldiers.

At this point, I normally say, “Not Enough Bullets,” but I’ve used that a bit too much lately, so I will go with the apocryphal end of Marcus Licinius Crassus, who was made to drink molten gold by his captors as punishment for his greed.

*The Finance Insurance and Real Estate sector.

Economics Update

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The obvious lede here is the fact that the Fed has released its Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, better known as the Beige Book, which was not good, weakening slightly from June’s Beige Book, but it is not downright awful.

This is the already anemic stimulus, and a mild restoration of inventories running out of steam.

If you want some more detail, you can look at the Dallas, Richmond Fed Manufacturing surveys have shown a sluggish economy, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has fallen.

We are also seeing that consumer confidence fell to a 6 month low in June.

Additionally real estate is really pretty pathetic, with the number of renters skyrocketing as the home ownership rate has hit an 11 year low, so much for the Bush/Greenspan real estate wealth.

Note that home sales did rise sharply in June, over an expiration-of-the-tax-credit crippled May, but it still was the worst June ever recorded.

Mortgage news was mixed though, with mortgage applications falling slightly, though the number of applications for home purchases rose slightly.

Finally, durable goods orders fell for the 2nd straight month in June.

Wanker of the Day

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Chris Dodd, who is saying that Elizabeth Warren is not confirmable as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Now that he is not running for reelection, I guess that he’s looking for a lobbying gig with the finance industry:

“She’s qualified, no question about that. The question is whether she’s confirmable,” Dodd added. “The issue is [if] you can’t confirm somebody, if you go six or seven months without someone in that job, you’ve got a problem.”

Progressives have been strongly pressuring the Obama administration to appoint Warren ever since the Wall Street reform bill passed in Congress. Some have argued that she be given a recess appointment if a minority of senators block her confirmation. Dodd objects to that idea.

“I think that would be a huge mistake,” Dodd said, in response to a question from TPMDC. “Recess appointments. No, no, no.”

“I think those are, you know, Republicans used to do it, I think that’s a mistake,” Dodd added. “Except in the most extreme circumstances where you need someone because of an emergency pending, but as a routine matter, I think it’s a fundamental mistake.”

Go Cheney yourself Mr. Distinguished Gentleman from Connecticut.

Is the Obama Administration Sabotaging the CFPB Already?

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There are increasing reports that Elizabeth Warren, largely as a result of a growing chorus among liberals to appoint her as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, will be the nominee as the first chair.

Well, I figured that if they were forced, as it appears that they are, then they would play to lose the nomination: After all, how tough is it to get Republicans to filibuster someone who wants to work for the average American?

Well, if the following report is true, then they are also sabotaging the CFPB as an organization as we speak, having tasked a Federal Reserve Governor and former banking industry lobbyist to start staffing the organization:

However, a source tells FDL News that Geithner is working on this process with Elizabeth Duke, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Duke is a former community banker and the past head of the American Bankers Association, a trade lobby group. She served on the ABA’s board of directors from 1999 to 2006. The ABA opposed the Dodd-Frank bill almost entirely because of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

What’s more, Duke herself specifically opposed an independent agency in July 2009 testimony, and endorsed keeping the responsibility for consumer protection in the Federal Reserve. In fact, she went further, promoting the Fed’s consumer protection prowess despite the agency having missed the housing bubble and the predatory lending that enabled it.

………

If the reports I’m getting are true, this is the woman dealing with staffing up and organizing the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, before the director gets a chance.

The Federal Reserve has not yet returned comment regarding Elizabeth Duke’s role.

This is crucially important. There’s a lot someone in power can do to mess with a federal agency at the outset. You can hire some staffers not committed to the agency’s goals, or give them poor working conditions, or any number of things. Then the new director comes in and is immediately faced with a turf war. If a community banker dismissive of consumer protections ends up setting the vision for the consumer protection bureau, it could slow its progress out of the gate. If the Department where the agency originates is more concerned with “extend and pretend” – letting the banks get out of trouble by earning their way past the bad loans on their books, in part through inundating consumers with higher fees on their products – then that worldview of the banks being more important than the people can get embedded into the agency.

Obviously, there are conflicting reports here, but I’m inclined to believe these reports.

Obviously, David Dayen’s suggestion that Obama do the right thing and, “without delay name her to the position of interim director by hiring her at Treasury,” is a good suggestion, but this assumes a level of support of the CFPB and its core mission, and I do not believe that.

First, I believe that Obama and his economic team really do buy into neoliberal idea that markets are always smarter and better than regulators, and second, I think that they honestly believe that the banking system will collapse if they generate profits by cheating ordinary Americans.

Of course I’ve been pessimistic about Obama for about three years, so feel free to argue that I’m not hopey changey enough.