Category: Foreign Relations

Why Reaching Across the Aisle is a Stupid Idea

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Arizona Republican John Kyle has announced that he will not allow a vote on the START treaty unless the Democrats capitulate on tax cuts for people making more than $¼ million a year.

I am not disappointed by Kyle, I expect this behavior from post-Reagan Republicans. What does disappoint me is the behavior of Barack Obama, who continues to think that he can dazzle them with his awesomeness and reach across the aisle.

As my brother notes, “Since being ‘nice’ doesn’t work, a sane course might include not being nice….“

The Big Picture on the Wikileaks Releases

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People are talking about potential damage from the recent release by Wikileaks of thousands of State Department Cables, and I think that they are missing the big picture here.

For all the chest pounding about how this is damaging, the reports this far are either not news (What, you mean Berlusconi parties and spends lots of money?), or more embarrassing than damaging (What, you mean that the Arabs hate the Iranians, as they hated the Persians for the past 3000 years).

The real issue here is that this is a natural consequence of over-classification.

Basically, since everything gets classified, and in the interests of communications between organizations, tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people get access, and they that most, if not all, of the data that passes in front of them is stuff that is either already public knowledge, or absolutely innocuous.

It makes people casual about restricted data, so they are more likely to mishandle it, or, as in the case with Wikileaks, they feel compelled to share it with 3rd parties because they feel that it should be public data.

The solution to this problem, and it will be one that the US state security apparatus will almost certainly eschew, is to classify less data, because tightening down on data more just makes the problem worse.

Not Gonna Happen……

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The real reason for the UK independent deterrent

With the draconian British budget cuts, and the conversion of their carrier aviation from the STOVL F-35B to the CTOL F-35C, there is now talk of the British engaging in some form of joint carrier operations with the French:

London’s decision to fit catapults on its planned second aircraft carrier opened up the prospect of French Rafale strike fighters flying off a British flattop, with reciprocal rights for British aircraft off the French carrier, French Defense Minister Hervé Morin said Oct. 26 at the Euronaval trade show.

Morin asked the French military staff to assess whether the installation of catapults would allow French aircraft, such as the Rafale, to operate off the Royal Navy vessel, and the answer was: “Yes, it’s technically feasible,” he told journalists.

That opened up potential opportunities of interoperability and mutual interdependence between the British and French fleets, he said. With such cross-deck operations came the possibility of a “permanent presence at sea,” he said.

I just don’t see it happening.

While the French and British have on occasion used common aircraft, most notably the SEPECAT Jaguar, given the nearly thousand-year history of animus between the two nations (see “Yes Prime Minister” vid), I just cannot see them operating jointly in this manner.

I’ve Never Called Him Stupid, But Now I Will…

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Because Barack Obama just met with Condoleeza Rice to discuss foreign policy:

US President Barack Obama met Friday at the White House with former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice for a chat on foreign policy and her new memoir, officials said.

What’s next, meeting with Mary Mallon* to discuss food hygiene?

Discussing haute cuisine, or for that matter how to win a World Cup, with the British?

Seriously, the idea that you are going to have a friendly chat about foreign policy with the worst Secretary of State of all time, who served the worst President of all time, because ……… Hell, I cannot fathom a possible reason for doing this.

What is going on here is a demonstration of either mind-boggling idiocy, or a truly nasty bit of psychological pathology that requires one to get approval from everyone.

*Typhoid Mary.

Russia Will Not Sell S-300 to Iran

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President Medvedev has announced that the Sale of S-300 surface to air missiles to Iran.

Russia has always taken a minimalist approach to obeying UN sanctions regarding the Iranian nuclear, so this is a big deal, particularly since these missiles, with their 400+ km detection range, end up as a formidable area defense system against conventional aircraft, and a formidable point defense system against stealthy targets, at least to the degree that my wild assed guess regarding detection range are justified.

Brazil to Delay Fighter Acquisition Decision

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will now make the decision after elections but before he leaves office:

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will decide who gets Brazil’s multi-billion dollar contract to build jet fighters after the October elections but before he leaves office on Jan. 1, his defense minister said Sept. 7.

The finalists now battling it out in the final stages of the tender are France’s Rafale made by Dassault, Sweden’s Gripen NG by Saab, and the F/A-18 Super Hornet manufactured by U.S. giant Boeing.

Da Silva favors the Rafale, because he thinks that there are more opportunities for technical transfer and other cooperation with the French, while the military favors the Gripen, which will be the least expensive aircraft over its life time, having half the engines, and half the weight of the two competitors.

As to the F/A-18, tech transfer is rather iffy, but the unit price is likely the lowest, and it might help with cooperation with any US military operations in Latin America.

My guess is that he will choose the Rafale, he has already expressed a strong preference for the aircraft.

At this point, there is no intention to use it on Brazil’s aircraft carrier, but that possibility might push them towards either the Rafale-M or the F/A-18 E/F, both of which are carrier capable.

Basel III

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Click for full size

Additional Capital Requirements


Phase In Schedule

I’ve been looking at the Basel III international banking proposals, and I find them rather weak tea.

The 10¢ tour of the proposal is that they are requiring more capital, 4.5% tier 1 capital (basically capital that can be redeemed for cash in a market essentially immediately), a further capital conservation buffer, and a “counter-cyclical” buffer that would kick in when times are good.

This will all be phased in over a 5 year period starting in 2013.

As to what it all means, I agree with Yves Smith that, “the reality is that a Basel III world will not look hugely different to the one from which the last crisis sprang.”

In particular, there is next to nothing on synchronizing accounting standards, which will send banks to places where they can call a bouquet of flowers a Tier 1 asset, does not deal with the shadow banking system in any meaningful way, and ignores the vast pit of putrescence that is the ratings agencies.

The Anti-Defamation League Had Jumped the Shark

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This is one big shark that he jumped.
With Frikken Lasers!

Specifically, Abraham Foxman has now vaulted over C. Megalodon*.

There are now credible allegations that Foxman lobbied against an interfaith trip to Auschwitz:

Earlier this month, several imams joined U.S. officials to visit the Dachau and Auschwitz concentration camps, a trip which resulted in the clerics issuing a statement condemning anti-Semitism and vowing “to make real the commitment of ‘never again.'”

The eight Muslim-American clerics were joined by Hannah Rosenthal, the presidential special envoy to monitor and combat anti-Semitism, and a handful of other officials from the Obama, Bush and Reagan administrations.

But according to Politico, “Organizers of the trip say they were dismayed that the Anti-Defamation League’s Abe Foxman lobbied U.S. officials against participating.”

I hope the Abraham Foxman has a serious mental or neurological problem, because otherwise, he is just a pathetic bigot, and dementia is preferable to that.

*The largest shark, and likely largest predator fish ever. It died out some 1.5 million years ago. The Genus is still in dispute, between either Carcharodon (Great White) or Carcharocles (broad toothed Mako). But in either case, you are jumping C. Megalodon, you have jumped the biggest shark ever.

A Few More People on the Right Side of 51 Park

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And they are Democrats.

Senator Al Franken:

Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) is slamming conservative opposition to the Muslim community center project near Ground Zero in New York City — the city where he formerly resided for many years — calling the attacks against it “one of the most disgraceful things that I’ve heard.”

And Congressman Charlie Rangel:

Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) came out in support of the proposed Cordoba House Islamic community center two blocks from Ground Zero yesterday, saying that he’s “kind of proud that they’re sticking to their guns and saying this is where they would want to worship.”

Also, lesser plaudits to Nancy Pelosi, who suggested that the anti-Islamic Center movement might be AstroTurf, though she walked it back a bit later in the day.

But Will They Roll on Bush and His Evil Minions&trade

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Polish prosecutors are considering charging the former Polish President and PM with war crimes for allowing the CIA to operate gulags in their country:

Polish prosecutors are considering bringing charges of war crimes against the country’s former prime minister and former president over allegations of secret CIA prisons.

Former president Aleksander Kwasniewski and former prime minister Leszek Miller, who held office between 2001 and 2004, may stand trial before the State Tribunal, a court specifically designed to try Poland’s top officials, Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza reported on Wednesday (4 August).

The court’s prosecutor wants to ask the speaker of parliament to initiate the criminal procedure against the two men. The case would first have to go to a parliamentary committee and then to the lower house of parliament, which would decide whether or not to press charges, the news report says.

One hopes that eventually we find someone who is willing to sing on this, and the Shrub and the Smiler will end up in the dock.

It does seem that this is all beginning to unravel, and perhaps we are near a point where revelations breed further revelation.

Why Yes, The Obama Administration is Paying to Offshore Your Job

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It’s called the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO),and USAID is spending $30 million dollars to train workers in Sri Lanka in order to outsource IT jobs from the United States:

Under director Rajiv Shah [an Obama political appointee], the United States Agency for International Development will partner with private outsourcers in Sri Lanka to teach workers there advanced IT skills like Enterprise Java (Java EE) programming, as well as skills in business process outsourcing and call center support. USAID will also help the trainees brush up on their English language proficiency.

USAID is contributing about $10 million to the effort, while its private partners are investing roughly $26 million.

“To help fill workforce gaps in BPO and IT, USAID is teaming up with leading BPO and IT/English language training companies to establish professional IT and English skills development training centers,” the U.S. Embassy in Colombo, Sri Lanka, said in a statement posted Friday on its Web site.

“Courses in Business Process Outsourcing, Enterprise Java, and English Language Skills will be offered at no charge to over 3,000 under- and unemployed students who will then participate in on-the-job training schemes with private firms,” the embassy said.

Oh, I forgot to add, they are also doing this in Armenia.

I don’t think that Barack Obama really wants to send your jobs overseas, but I do think that there are people in his administration are “strongly free trade” and they think that being “strongly free trade” means that agencies of the US government have an obligation to move jobs out of the country in this manner, on the theory that one day, eventually, these countries will develop a middle class that will buy the sh%$ that we make.

Still, if this is not on the front page of some right wing blogger in the next 3 days, I would be very surprised.

It betrays a level of political incompetence and arrogance that positively boggles the mind.

I’m going to check and see if it is on Slashdot, and if not, I’ll do some blog whoring with the story.

World Court Rules Kosovo Independence Not Illegal

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Serbia brought the case to them, arguing that the Kosavar declaration of independence was an infringement on the sovereignty of their country, and the court rules that such a secession is not against international law:

Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008 did not break international law, top UN judges have ruled in a non-binding decision.

The International Court of Justice rejected Serbian claims that the move had violated its territorial integrity.

Kosovo officials said all doubt about its status had now been removed, but Serbia’s president insisted Belgrade would never recognise the secession.

Kosovo has been defacto independent for almost 2 decades, so this won’t make much of a difference, but I rather imagine that ¾ or the rulers of African nations are sh$#@ing bullets right now, because the boundaries of those countries are arbitrary artifacts of a horrific colonial past, and it will likely encourage more moves toward redrawing those boundaries.

In the long run, such a move will be good for the people of Africa, but to the corrupt elites who rule most of these nations,* because stoking ethnic divisions in order to create power with a divide and conquer strategy is how many of these corrupt bastards stay in power.†

A change to better drawn boundaries makes this more difficult, and thus would reduce their ability to rob their countrymen blind.‡

*Hell, the corrupt elites rule most of the nations in the world, including ours. See our own White House and Congress.
†Again, true of most nations out there too, including ours, see the Teabagger caucus in Congress.
‡Yes, us too, OK!

Because the Banks and Insurance Companies Own Us

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Hungary has just broken off talks with the IMF and the EU, because the IMF and EU only want deficit reduction on the backs or ordinary people, so throw pensioners into the streets, destroy your healthcare and education systems, and raise the VAT, but whatever you do, don’t raise taxes on banks and insurance:

Mr Orban had intended to raise some half a billion euros (187 billion forints) via a new tax on banks and insurance firms. The IMF however said this “”is likely to adversely affect lending and growth.”

More subtlely, the EU’s Mr Rehn said: “Care will also be needed to ensure a stable environment for both domestic and international investors.”

Brussels and the IMF will be hoping a swift sharp spanking from the markets will chasten Mr Orban’s government, but the move will also unnerve investor thinking about the condition of economies across the bloc, particularly in eastern Europe.

The truth here is that the bailout package is more a bailout of western banks than it is of Hungary, which is why the EU and the IMF find it unacceptable that banks actually pay taxes in Hungary.

If I were the Hungarian PM, I would start drawing up plans to reverse Hungary’s commitment to joining the Euro, and start immediate preparations to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and allow the Forint to float.

It is clear that the deal with the Euro is that if you join, you don’t just lose sovereignty to the EU institutions, but to French, German, and British banks as well.

A Foreseeable Result of Pandering to the US Nuclear Industry

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Now that the US deal to sell nuclear technology to India is pretty much a done deal, the Chinese are selling nuclear power plants to Pakistan:

China is expected to formally announce the plans to build the 650-megawatt reactors in Punjab province at a meeting in New Zealand of the Nuclear Suppliers Group – the 46 countries that dominate and try to control the world’s atomic trade.

The US has already voiced its disapproval before the meeting, which starts today, and will try to forge a consensus on updating the rules designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

US officials say that the plan requires special exemption from the NSG, [Nuclear Suppliers Group] which China joined in 2004, as Pakistan has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and could, therefore, divert some technology to its nuclear weapons program or to another country.

China and Pakistan disagree, pointing out that the US set a precedent by sealing a deal to sell civilian nuclear fuel and technology to India in 2006, even though Delhi had yet to sign the treaty.

That someone would sell nuclear reactors to the Pakistanis in response to the US making a joke of the NNPT was pretty much a done deal, and a predictable consequence of this decision.

I made note of this some time ago, and when my predictions prove true, it implies a level of blatantly obvious that buggers the mind.

The original deal with India was all about Bush and His Evil Minions™ wanting to reward their friends in the US domestic nuclear power industry, US interests be damned, and the consequences are potentially disastrous.

We’ll probably see a few more blips on Isao Hashimoto’s animations.

Polanski Extradition Denied

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Basically the Swiss government said that it would not extradite until and unless it got the details on the judicial and prosecutorial irregularities that occurred in the initial trial:

The justice ministry said that the US authorities had failed to provide confidential testimony about Polanski’s original sentencing procedure.

“The reason for the decision lies in the fact that it was not possible to exclude with the necessary certainty a fault in the US extraditionary request.”

So the prosecutors decided that covering their screw-ups, and their asses, was more important than a prosecution of someone who is a confessed child rapist.

I’ve always felt that the people, such as sociopath and Washington Post columnist* Richard Cohen, who tried to excuse the rape because he was one of them, or worse, to cast the child as some sort of predator were repugnant.

But this was the right decision. There have always been alarming irregularities in the original case, ex-parte communications and other misconduct that should have seen most of the prosecuting team, as well as the judge, disbarred, and the information being withheld included testimony which might have shown that Polanski had actually served his complete sentence. (All of 42 days)

*But I repeat myself.

Sanity in the Ukraine

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Ukraine is formally withdrawing its application to join NATO. It’s parliament passed a law making joining the organization illegal.

Ukraine’s aspirations, much like Georgia’s were clearly motivated more by hostility towards Russia than about the real needs of the Ukrainian people, and this should serve to reduce tensions in the region.

Of course, what can be made through legislation can be unmade through legislation, but at the very least, it should reduce the drama from the Black Sea region for a while.

On the Legality of Executing a Blockade in International Waters

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It’s come up in the comments, and Galrahn at Information Dissemination, who is arguably one of the most knowledgeable about things Naval out there, nails the issues of maritime law when he says that, “Israeli Actions Are Stupid, But Legal.

He notes that armed stop and seize operations in international waters have always been legal, they are routine operations in US anti-drug operations, for example, and Israel had declared a blockade, and a blockade area:

Under international law, the consensus of the maritime attorney’s I have spoken to is that the boarding operation by Israel was legal. The coast of Gaza has been under maritime blockade by Israel, a blockade that was well known – indeed running the maritime blockade for political purposes was the specific intent of the protesters. It is why the press had been reporting all week that the situation was likely leading towards a confrontation. Is anyone surprised that Israel had an established maritime blockade and enforced that maritime blockade? I’m certainly not, Israel made clear all week that the flotilla would not be allowed to pass.

The maritime blockade is a result of the war between Israel and Hamas. Ones political position on that ongoing war is completely irrelevant to the reality that the maritime blockade was established. Knowledge of the maritime blockade by the protesters is also not in debate, and neither is knowledge the flotilla intended to violate the blockade – they made this clear themselves in the press. Once the flotilla made it clear in the press they intended to run the maritime blockade, according to international law, and even US law, the flotilla was considered to be in breach by attempting to violate the blockade.

………

The truly scary part is that under international laws governing maritime blockades, Israel could have outright sank the ship instead of board it as an alternative enforcement of the maritime blockade, and Israel still been within their rights under international law. Such an action could have led to war with Turkey, but even if the ship would have been sunk, Turkey would still be on the wrong end of international law in this situation. Turkey will likely find plenty of populist political support in NATO countries over these events, but if they attempt to escalate they may find that support is fleeting among their NATO allies.

(emphasis mine)

It is that last paragraph that makes it clear just how f%$#ed up everything is.

You can argue over whether the blockade is an illegal mass punishment of the population (illegal), or an attempt to deny war materiel to Hamas (legal), but the execution of a stop/search/seize order in a declared blockade zone even if that zone includes international waters, is clearly legal.