Category: Foreign Relations

What an Unbelievable Clusterf%$#

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The Israeli Defense Forces have intercepted a convoy of ships intending to run the Israeli blockade on Gaza, and at least 9 deaths have been reported.

Considering that at least one of the passengers in the convoy was a Nobel Peace Prize winner, it looks like this an absolute disaster for Israel, and a victory for the “Free Gaza Movement”.

My first thought is that, on the part of Israel, “It is worse than a crime: it is a mistake,”* because there will be significant negative repercussions for years on Israel’s foreign policy and public diplomacy.

It’s particularly problematic because the ship was Turkish flagged, and many of the passengers and crew were Turkish, which will serve to further worsen relations with the only majority-Islamic nation which has warm diplomatic relations with Israel.

If there is something that people on both sides of the Israel/Palestinian issue can agree on, it is that Benyamin Netanyahu’s fascination with “looking tough” for his personal political advantage has always resulted in serious damage to the interests of Israel.

The “Free Gaza Movement” is not friend of Israel, nor would I expect them to be, and I think that a significant portion of their leadership has little interest in any potential de-escalation. If this were a significant interest of theirs, they would not have refused to bring letters and a package to Giliad Shalit, but realistically, work toward de-escalation is not really a big consideration for any of the 3rd party non-state actors who choose to involve themselves in the politics of this matter. (AIPAC can go Cheney themselves)

Still, I wonder how much the old saying, “luck is a residue of design,”† might figure in the events of this morning in terms of the planning of this convoy.

Certainly, if the report that the boarding party was sent in carrying just pistols and paint ball guns‡ is true, there are any number of people involved in this operation who should be fired by the IDF forthwith.

On a related note, I have had a back and forth on by invitation only Stellar Parthenon BBS, regarding whether the interception itself was illegal, since it took place in international water, and I have concluded that with a formally announced blockade, it probably was.

The interdiction of shipping with armed boarding parties in international waters is routine for both drug smuggling and human trafficking.

Still, it’s a stupid thing, and the deaths are senseless.

*Joseph Fouché
†Branch Rickey
‡And the source (Debka) is a thoroughly unreliable one.

Torpedo Parts Found at South Korean Ship Sinking

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Just when you think that it cannot get any crazier, salvage crews have found bits of the propeller from the torpedo that sank the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan, and it has been identified as either Russian or Chinese in origin.

So it’s pretty much a dead nuts cinch that it was a hostile act by the DPRK.

Expect things to get messy on the Korean peninsula for the next few weeks.

H/t Information Dissemination.

My earlier post on the matter.

Morons

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After all that has gone on with the Euro over the past year, and the fact that the Baltic Republic is suffering through a brutal recession, which its government has made worse by implementing an austerity program, Estonia has announced that it will adopt the Euro next year.

While I understand the issue here, national pride basically, anyone who joins the Euro now, when the state of the currency, and its central bank are currently in flux, is dangerously reckless.

OK, Now I’ve Seen Everything

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Click for full size

The US 170th Infantry Brigade rehearsing for its march at the Victory Day parade in Red Square

Active duty units of the US, British, French and Polish military will be marching in Red Square tomorrow in the Victory Day parade:

Never before in history have active-duty American troops been invited to march in the Victory Day parade, according to the United States military. The occasion is the 65th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, a date that carries an almost sacred meaning in Russia. Russian leaders have taken pains to explain that the Americans — along with contingents from Britain, France and Poland — were invited as representatives of the “anti-Hitler coalition.”

It would have been inconceivable that the Russians would have invited American troops, and it would have been inconceivable that the Pentagon would have accepted, just a few years ago.

Rumsfeld and Cheney were trying to recreate the threatening “Russian Bear” for political advantage, and the entire foreign policy of the Bush administration was about unilateralism and boneheaded hostility.

I Call Bullsh%$ on Benyamin Netanyahu

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It appears that Israel is claiming that Syria transferred Scud missiles to Hezbollah.

This would not make sense. While the Scud is mobile, and hard to detect when it is deployed, it is a liquid fueled missile that uses caustic fuels and oxidizers (Kerosene or UDMH as fuel and RFNA as an oxidizer) that requires a significant amount of infrastructure to maintain and keep at ready status.

Having something like this, as opposed to smaller solid fueled rockets that can be stored and maintained without a fixed base and fueling location, is akin to painting a big target on whatever facilities are used to maintain the missiles.

Honestly, I think that this something ginned up by Netanyahyu for either domestic political consumption, or as a way to push back against Obama on the housing units in Jerusalem.

Of course, I could be wrong, as I was on the Syrian nuclear facility.

I would note that the entire Jerusalem problem is one of Netanyahu’s own making. He has a history of doing this to Democratic presidents, so I do not buy that the timing of the construction permit announcement was just a “bureaucratic oversight” either.

No Outrage From Me At All

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Developing nations are threatening to cut aid to poorer nations that do not sign onto to greenhouse gas reductions:

Rich countries have threatened to cut vital aid to the developing nations if they do not back the deal agreed at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, it has emerged.

The pressure on poor countries to support the US, EU and UK-brokered Copenhagen accord came as 190 countries resumed UN climate talks in Bonn in an atmosphere of mutual suspicion.

“The pressure to back the west has been intense,” said a senior African diplomat. “It was done at a very high level and nothing was written down. It was made very clear by the EU, UK, France and the US that if they did not back them then they would suffer.”

My heart bleeds borscht for them.

The idea that LDC’s, which for some reason includes two of the industrial powerhouses of the world, India and China, should get a free ride, and basically be allowed to destroy the world is complete crap.

If you want to piss in the punch bowl, don’t expect to be invited to the party.

Not only is such arm twisted to be expected, it is the right thing to do.

The damage that was done by the Kyoto protocols, where the LDC’s were left off the hook, giving polluting industries an incentive to move there and continue to pollute, is huge and ongoing.

We want more of this arm twisting, not less.

The Ever Reliable Joseph Lieberman

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Remember when I said that Joe Lieberman would be preening to get his face on the Teevee with regard to the new START Treaty?

Well, I was right. He is now calling for what appears to be a massive buildup in European missile defenses and a his desire for an unprovoked nuclear strike on Iran as a condition for his support:

Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” [big shocker there] the Connecticut Independent suggested that he himself would oppose ratification of the START II Treaty that Obama signed in Prague this past week, in part because, he reasoned, the language left America vulnerable to a nuclear Iran.

“I don’t believe that there will be 67 votes to ratify the treaty unless the administration does two things,” Lieberman said. “First: commit to modernize our nuclear stockpile, so as we have less nuclear weapons we know that they are capable if, God forbid, we need them. And secondly, to make absolutely clear that the statements by Russian president [Dmitry] Medvedev at the signing in program, that seemed to suggest that if we continue to build ballistic missile defense in Europe they may pull out of this treaty, is just not acceptable to us. We need that defense to protect our allies and ourselves from Iran.”

Basically, Lieberman is saying that unless Obama threatens Iran with nuclear attack, and promises to build up the ill-conceived European missile defense system, he’ll vote no.

Yes, he’s with on everything but Iraq, thanks for keeping him in the tent and pissing in, Harry and Barack.

This is all about Joe Lieberman getting his ego stroked, and the solution to this problem is to make it clear that there will be consequences if he f%$#s with this, not to stroke his ego: that only makes him worse.

Here is hoping that he gets caught buggering an underage hamster and will be forced to resign.

Plane Crash Kills Polish President

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It appears that his plane crashed in a heavy fog, while attempting to land in Smolensk, killing Poland’s president, Lech Kaczynski.

He was on his way to the Katyn Woods, where Polish and Russian authorities were to have a memorial service for the Polish officers and politicians murdered by the NKVD in 1940, which is kind of ironic:

Russian emergency officials said 97 people were killed. They included Poland’s deputy foreign minister and a dozen members of Parliament, the chiefs of the army and the navy, and the president of the national bank. They included Anna Walentynowicz, 80, the former dock worker whose firing in 1980 set off the Solidarity strike that ultimately overthrew Polish Communism, as well as relatives of victims of the massacre that they were on their way to commemorate.

…………

Among them, the Polish government said, were Mr. Kaczynski; his wife, Maria; Ryszard Kaczorowski, who led a government in exile during the Communist era; the deputy speaker of Poland’s Parliament, Jerzy Szmajdzinski; the head of the president’s chancellery, Wladyslaw Stasiak; the head of the National Security Bureau, Aleksander Szczyglo; the deputy minister of foreign affairs, Andrzej Kremer; the chief of the general staff of the Polish Army, Franciszek Gagor; the president of Poland’s national bank, Slawomir Skrzypek; and the commissioner for civil rights protection, Janusz Kochanowski.

My condolences to the victims families.

Note that President is a mostly ceremonial position under the Polish system, though a quick search through my archives seems to indicate that he was a bit of a euro-skeptic.

This is a Big Deal

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The US and Russia have signed a treaty calling for a 30% reduction of their respective nuclear arsenals.

This is a very positive development, though it is more timid that I would have liked.

Of course, it still needs a ⅔ vote in the Senate to be approved, and Republican Mike DeMint seems to be determined to be the turd in the punch bowl, and attempt to extract promises for an extensive missile defense installation in Europe, which the Russians consider a deal breaker.

Pretty much everyone who isn’t tied to Bush/Cheney, of both parties, find this a good deal, but considering the fact that many Congressional Republicans sold their souls, and their testicles, to the Bush/Cheney agenda some years back, it should get interesting.

Also, I predict that Joe “Shanda before the Goyim” Lieberman will speak forcefully about his deep concerns regarding the treaty, in the hope of getting lots of face time on the teevee.

Are the Recent Taliban Arrests Another ISI Black Op?

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Kai Eide, the former special representative in Afghanistan is saying that the recent spate of arrests by Pakistani security forces was likely a deliberate effort to sabotage ongoing negotiations with the Taliban:

The UN’s former envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, has strongly criticised Pakistan’s recent arrest of high-ranking Taliban leaders.

Mr Eide told the BBC the arrests had completely stopped a channel of secret communications with the UN.

Pakistani officials insist the arrests were not an attempt to spoil talks.

I don’t believe the denials.

The Pakistani state security apparatus is horrified at the thought of a government in Kabul that is at all friendly to India, and the people that they arrested were the ones who were involved in the negotiations, as Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist with an extensive background in the region notes:

While the Obama administration is watching the battlefield in Afghanistan, hoping for a quick weakening of the Taliban, regional powers are ratcheting up tensions in and outside that country. Pakistan and Iran in particular want to ensure that by the time the United States is ready to talk to the Taliban, the region’s future will already be shaped by local powers, limiting Washington’s options. Afghanistan’s ethnic and sectarian divisions are being exacerbated in the process.

…………

Events are reminiscent of the 1990s, when the bloody Afghan civil war was fueled by an alignment of India, Iran and Russia, which backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban regime supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

…………

Yet Pakistan’s military clearly wants a role in shaping Afghanistan. Islamabad had given the Taliban leadership sanctuary since 2001, but in recent weeks the military has arrested several key Taliban leaders who went around the generals and the intelligence service and were using Saudi Arabia as an intermediary to talk to Kabul. Still left alone, however, are Taliban hard-liners who could promote Pakistan’s security needs in future dialogues with Kabul.

On a visit to Islamabad last week, Karzai acknowledged that Pakistan has legitimate security concerns in Afghanistan but also demanded that those arrested Taliban members be extradited to Afghanistan. Privately, senior Afghan officials were incensed, claiming that Pakistan was “sabotaging and undermining” their efforts to talk to the Taliban.

Unfortunately, the Pakistani state security apparatus continues to prepare for a cataclysmic confrontation over Kashmir, which will never happen, because India and Pakistan are now nuclear powers, and this world view continues to make them unreliable allies in the region.

Greek Crisis Appears to be Moderating

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The EU has an as yet undisclosed bailout plan, and S&P reaffirmed Greece’s BBB bond rating.

As I have said before, the problem was that the governments were too eager for integration, so they used unrealistic exchange rates to bring in the less well off EU members into the Euro, basically payoffs, and so you now have imbalances that need to sort themselves out.

Still if I were a betting man, I’d bet on the Germans being complete dicks about all of this, because it’s how they roll.

So Now, Open Source is Piracy

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These are your friends

The International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA), a private group which is the demon spawn of the RIAA, the MPAA, and other evil organizations referred to by their acronyms, has submitted recommendations to the State Department for countries to be placed on a watch list for ineffective protection of IP, a so called “Special 301” list, and one of their criteria is now encouraging the use of open source software:

I am neither surprised nor upset by the addition of Costa Rica to the list, to be fair our enforcement is atrocious. Similarly, I am not surprised by most of the other recommendations, which seems like a rehash of past offenders. What I found rather surprising is that the IIPA seems to be using their Special 301 submission to attack open source software. According to Digital Copyright Canada, several countries are being included in the Special 301 watchlist because they have open source-friendly policies, or in their words, the IIPA would rather people “pirate” than switch to legal competitors.

This is quite a claim, so I have been going through the reports to verify it myself. The country reports for Brazil, India, Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand certainly contain some comments about open source software. Particularly, the IIPA seems to be concerned that these countries have enacted or are in the process of enacting legislation that will make it obligatory for public entities to choose open source software over its proprietary counterparts. I have to admit that I somewhat share the IIPA’s concerns in this regard. I have never believed in open source procurement legislation, I think that forcing institutions to use a specific technical solution is wrong. Open source is an organic, bottom-up movement, and making it state policy seems not only counter-productive, but contrary to the very same principles of openness. Open source should not be imposed, it should win on its own merits.

Here is what the IIPA says:

“While IIPA has no issue with one of the stated goals of the circular, namely, “reducing software copyright violation,” the Indonesian government’s policy as indicated in the circular letter instead simply weakens the software industry and undermines its long-term competitiveness by creating an artificial preference for companies offering open source software and related services, even as it denies many legitimate companies access to the government market. Rather than fostering a system that will allow users to benefit from the best solution available in the market, irrespective of the development model, it encourages a mindset that does not give due consideration to the value to intellectual creations. As such, it fails to build respect for intellectual property rights and also limits the ability of government or public-sector customers (e.g., State-owned enterprise) to choose the best solutions to meet the needs of their organizations and the Indonesian people. It also amounts to a significant market access barrier for the software industry.”

Let’s see, the countries are saying that as a matter of policy, free and open is cheaper, and reduces the risks of violation of IP rules, which could result in US sanctions, so as a matter of policy, wherever possible, go with software that carries a “public license.”

According to the IIPA, that’s the same as piracy.

There is no right for private firms to demand that anyone buy their products, particularly not sovereign governments.

And NATO Support and $14.95 Will Get You a New Trenta Size Starbucks Skinny Half Caf White Chocolate Cappuccino

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Russia has cut a deal with the government in the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia to build a military base, and NATO has condemned the action:

Russia has signed a deal to build a military base in the rebel Georgian territory of Abkhazia. NATO says the deal violates an existing agreement and has urged Moscow to reverse the decision.

Russia has signed a deal to set up a military base in the Georgian break-away region of Abkhazia. The agreement, which will give Russia a permanent presence in the region on the Black Sea, has been declared invalid by NATO.

Officials from the region said the base will provide a home to at least 3,000 Russian land troops which are already stationed in Abkhazia. As it stands, the deal would enable Russia to station personnel in Abkhazia for a period of at least 49 years.

I would like to see a resolution of these issues in Georgia, but so long as you have the increasingly unstable and anti-democratic Saakashvili in charge, and the west continues to support him, because, I guess he went to western schools, and speaks English well, we won’t.

Vulture Capitalists Need to be Slapped down

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I would suggest prosecutions of the folks who are pursuing Russia regarding bonds issued by the Czar:

The Russian government vowed to “defend our rights” after French holders of czarist bonds valued at as much as 100 billion euros ($137 billion) threatened to sue the Kremlin and seize property it owns in Paris.

“May God help them,” Viktor Khrekov, a spokesman for the Kremlin Property Department, said by phone today from Moscow, after the Paris-based International Federative Association for Russian Bond Holders, or AFIPER, pledged to sue to recoup part of the century-old debt.

The empire of Russia has not existed since 1917.

That country was liquidated, along with Czar Nicholas and his family.

People are buying this stuff at cents on the dollar, and then attempting to get be enough of an annoyance to coerce some payments out of sovereign nations.

It’s particularly egregious behavior because France and Russia had a final settlement since 1996.

Surely, if terrorism statutes can be used against the reserves of Icelandic banks, it can be used against these extortionists.

Deep Thought

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With Greece mired in a debt crisis of their own making, and coming to the EU for aid, perhaps one of the conditions for any aid should be for them to stop being so pissy about admitting Macedonia to the EU, because the Greeks want to claim Alexander the Great was “Greek.”

He was a Macedonian, who led a nation that did not speak Greek, though he, as a royal child, was tutored by the best Greek scholars, and doubtless spoke Greek, albeit with a foreign accent.

But, even if he were Greek, it was 2000 years ago, and the government of Greece needs to focus on the hear and now.

I Don’t Think that the Chinese Gentleman is Joking

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Steve Clemons notes the following discussion that he had with a Chinese official some years back:

Several years ago, I met with the Deputy Director of the Policy Planning staff of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and I asked him what he was working on — and what China’s grand strategy was.

His reply: “We are trying to figure out how to keep you Americans distracted in small Middle Eastern countries.”

It’s pretty memorable when one can joke and be truthful at the same time.………

Yes, it’s funny, but I’m not sure if it’s funny “ha ha”, or funny “strange”.