Category: Foreign Relations

Looks Like Our Neighbors to the North Will Boot the Wingnuts Too

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Well, we now have a report from Canada that the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party have agreed to form a coalition, and that the Bloc Québécois has agreed to be a part of the government too.

Because of this they have asked that the current minority Conservative government be dissolved, as they constitute a majority of the Canadian Parliament, as 77 Liberal + 37 NDP + 49 BQ is 164 of the 308 seats.

I’m not sure how long this would last. The Liberal Leader, Stephane Dion, would be the interim PM, but he announced his resignation as party leader following the recent election, so the new leader would replace him. (more on the machinations here)

Of note is the fact that this would be the first time that the NDP would actually be officially a part of a government.

The Conservatives are screaming Coup, but they got neither a majority of the seats nor a majority of the popular vote.

I think that the proximate cause is a recognition by the Conservatives that with Obama in the White House, one of their main claims to legitimacy, being uniquely positioned to maintain a good relationship with the US President, is no longer operative, so they have tried to impliment some of the more radical elements of their agenda in the expectation that they would lose in the next election:

….Transport Minister John Baird said the minority government won’t try to eliminate federal civil servants’ right to strike over the next couple of years, as pledged in last week’s economic update.

On Saturday, Baird also announced the government had shelved its contentious plan to eliminate political party subsidies that are based on the number of votes received during elections. Parliament is due to vote on a Liberal no-confidence motion on Dec. 8.

The subsidies in question are public financing of campaigns.

Also, Harper is refusing to submit a real stimulis package for the Canadian economy.

In the process, I think that he has gotten the 3 other parties freaked out enough to work together.

Lame-duck-inosis

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I understand that the political appointees in the State Department may wish it otherwise, but the rest of the world understands that Bush and His Evil Minions™ are lame ducks, and they want no part of any of initiatives.

Case in point, the latest IAEA runing on the Syrian nuclear program:

The U.N. atomic agency approved a contested Syrian bid for nuclear aid on Wednesday, overcoming U.S.-led resistance to the project while Damascus is under investigation for covert activity that could lead to atom bombs.

The United States, Canada and Australia mounted last minute objections to a compromise deal on the project but finally joined a consensus in favor since they could not have won if they forced a rare vote by International Atomic Energy Agency governors, diplomats in the closed meeting said.

(emphasis mine)

They matter very little now. On January 20, they do not matter at all.

Stupid Lame Ducks

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Well, the US is threatening Russia over it not complying completely with the cease fire agreements, in this case my guess would be over their disinclination do withdraw from portions of Abkhazia that Georgia seized a year of so ago:

Russia is still failing to meet its ceasefire obligations with Georgia and Washington’s European allies must not overlook this and rush to embrace Moscow, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday.

Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, said Moscow must pull back its forces as agreed in a French-brokered ceasefire that ended the war in August before there could be “business as usual.”

Mr. Bryza, you are a complete idiot.

No one cares what you thing. You will be gone in 8 weeks, along with the rest of your skeevy incompetent associates, and the Russians and the Europeans know this too.

Please, just have a steaming helping of STFU.

Zimbabwe

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It looks like Mugabe is going to be forming a government unilaterally. They have already sent a copy of the legislation to form the government to Thabo Mbeki, who will doubtly side with Mugabe again.

Thankfully, Mbeki is no longer South African president, because if he were, he would never have moved to withhold 300 million rand ($28 million) in Zimbabwe aid over the stalled negotiations.

That’s a positive development, and occurred only because the ANC forced Mbeki out of the presidency.

Well, This is One Way to Get Out of Debt

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It appears that the Ecuadorian debt audit commission has found serious and pervasive irregularities in the debts that it owes.

This is not surprising, foreign debt to third world nations is typically geared toward maximizing the shafting of the recipient countries, and not the niceties of western accounting:

Ecuador’s debt audit commission said it uncovered “illegality and illegitimacy” in the country’s foreign obligations, findings that may give President Rafael Correa the legal basis he’s sought to halt bond payments.

The commission said in a 172-page report that the global bonds due in 2012 and 2030 “show serious signs of illegality,” including issuance without proper government authorization. Correa, who last week withheld a $30 million interest payment on the 2012 bonds while he awaited the audit, said today that the country’s bonds due in 2015 also are marred by irregularities. He called the audit results “truly disastrous” and “conclusive.”

It appears that they are looking at filing criminal charges.

It’s likely true that the audit committee’s review is accurate. The question is whether the western banking interests can get him to knuckle under, and if not, what happens when other 3rd world nations follow Ecuador’s example look at their debt deals closely.

Good News About the Iraq SOF Deal

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It appears that the deal not only rescinds immunity for mercenaries contractors, but it does so retroactively, meaning that they could be liable to stand trial in an Iraqi court for earlier actions, like shooting wildly into a crowd at a Baghdad traffic circle:

A new U.S.-Iraq security agreement doesn’t specifically prevent Iraqi officials from bringing criminal charges retroactively in cases such as the September 2007 shooting deaths of 17 Iraqi civilians by contractors protecting a State Department convoy, officials told security company officials during meetings in Washington Thursday

Good.

Hopefully this should get the mercenaries contractors out of Iraq, which would be good for both the Iraqis and our troops, who will find the Iraqi people a little bit less pissed off at Americans.

Iceland: Payback’s a Bitch

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Well, in response to being declared a terrorist nation by they UK, and by the IMF attempting to impose draconian conditions on it, Iceland’s President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson has invited Russia to use the old US Air Force base at Keflavik.

The US closed the base in 2006, so certainly the space is available, and the Russians could pay in cash, though the Russian ambassador was as flummoxed as the rest of the people at the diplomatic luncheon.

As to where this will end up, I tend to think that between the gentle ministrations of Gordon Brown and the International Monetary Fund, there is a pretty good chance that the Russians will end up with both Keflavik and a naval basing agreement.

Speaking of Insubordination

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How about Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, who is now dissing the Iraqi status of forces agreement even before the ink is dry:

The withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, set to be completed by the end of 2011 under a proposed deal between Baghdad and Washington, should depend on the situation on the ground, US military chief Admiral Michael Mullen said on Monday.

“I do think it is important that this be conditions-based,” Mullen told reporters, referring to the eventual withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.

We have an agreement negotiated by the civilian leaders of both countries, and just now approved by the Iraqi cabinet, and he is already saying that he is opposed to the central feature of that agreement.

This is largely an artifact of the fact that Bush and His Evil Minions&trade politicized the military, and that Bill Clinton did not fire Colin Powell when he should have, which has emboldened his successors.

Iraqi Cabinet Approves SOF Pact

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So, now the status of forces agreement goes to the Iraqi Parliament.

Changes demanded by the Iraqi government and accepted by Bush and His Evil Minions™:

  • Requiring the U.S. to get Iraqi consent before searching homes.
  • Giving Iraqis authority over the international zone that houses the centers of American power in Baghdad.
  • Enabling Iraqis to search U.S. cargo.
  • Prohibiting Americans from conducting raids in other countries from Iraqi soil.
  • Eliminating the judicial immunity that applies to foreign contractors and to a lesser degree that of U.S. soldiers working in Iraq under the occupation’s current mandate.
  • A time line for leaving the country.

Basically, the Iraqis knew that Bush had to have this agreement, and so demanded, and got what they wanted.

Russia Makes Offer on Euro Missile Defense

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They won’t place missiles in Kaliningrad if the US terminates its ABM installation in Poland and the Czech Republic.

It’s not surprising that the Russians consider this a direct threat.

It’s also not surprising that they consider the expansion of NATO a direct threat.

Their worst case scenario is, “What would have happened if Georgia had been a NATO member?”

There are people in positions of power, or one election away from a position of power, in many of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact nations who would be inclined to be just as crazy as Georgian President Saakaskvili, only when they launch an assault on an unarmed populace that is inclined toward the Russians.

Russians Look at Anglo-French CFV Purchase

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It should come as no surprise that the current Russian STOBAR carrier has not proved itself to be a world beater.

Even so, reports that the Russian Navy is in discussions with Thales about purchasing the Anglo-French CVF aircraft carrier is a bit of a surprise:

The idea being floated is that all indications are Russia would like to build 6 aircraft carriers similar to the 60-70 thousand ton CVF design being developed for the British and French Navies. Ilya Kramnik’s idea is to build the lead ship in France with foreign assistance, including some experience for Russian shipbuilders, then do follow on serial construction of the rest of the class in Russia.

There are a number of thorny issues that make this difficult, among them the likelihood that any US technology on the ships would not be cleared for export.

I think that its more likely that, if there were a joint venture with other countries, it would be Russia-China, and certainly the new shipyard planned at Cahngxing, will be used for the construction and service of larger ships, and the model of the facility, shows an aircraft carrier in a drydock.

How George W. Bush Saved Mikheil Saakashvili from Being Hung by the Balls

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We now have the following repors from the Times of London:

With Russian tanks only 30 miles from Tbilisi on August 12, Mr Sarkozy told Mr Putin that the world would not accept the overthrow of Georgia’s Government. According to Mr Levitte, the Russian seemed unconcerned by international reaction. “I am going to hang Saakashvili by the balls,” Mr Putin declared.

Mr Sarkozy thought he had misheard. “Hang him?” — he asked. “Why not?” Mr Putin replied. “The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein.”

Mr Sarkozy, using the familiar tu, tried to reason with him: “Yes but do you want to end up like [President] Bush?” Mr Putin was briefly lost for words, then said: “Ah — you have scored a point there.”

Bush has become the Bogeyman for the world.

He is now Homer Simpson, the stupid pathetic avatar of all that is stupid and pathetic, without the charm.

Hillary Clinton to Run State?

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According to some well “placed sources”, yes Hillary is on the short list for Secretary of State.

This raises some interesting questions:

  1. What does this mean for an Obama foreign policy?
  2. What does this mean about the differences between Clinton and Obama on foreign policy in the primaries?
  3. Why is the Obama team suddenly leaking like a sieve, when it was so disciplined during the campaign?

I’m not sure what numbers 1 and 2 mean, but what number 3 means is that the Clintonistas on the transition team cannot keep their damn mouths shut.

This is a good reason to keep former Clinton staffers to a minimum in his administration.

George W. Bush Can Kiss My Shiny Metal Ass

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Well, it now appears that the lamest lame duck since Nixon announced his resignation 18 hours hence is now warning about the dangers of over regulation of a free market economy.

It appears that he is concerned that the G-20 meeting will result in calls for additional regulation to keep the Harvard Business School types from raping the general public.

So, George W. Bush, a man who was born on 3rd base, and thought that he had hit a home run,* can kiss my shiny metal ass.

*Yes, I know that I am mixing my metaphors. So sue me.

IMF Holding Over 300,000 People Hostage

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This is yet another example as to why the IMF is fundamentally an evil and criminal organization that needs to be shut down:

However, the board will not in practice approve the loan until Iceland resolves a conflict with European governments over how foreign savers will be compensated for billions of dollars in losses suffered on their deposits in Icelandic banks, mainly at Landsbanki’s Icesave unit.

Translation, “We will make the loan, but all the money has to go to foreign creditors.”

I may have not given the IMF enough credit earlier.

I thought that they would treat Icenlanders better, because they are white, but not it appears that they are treating Icelanders like N*gg*rs.

I expect a deal for a Russian naval base, along with a Kremlin loan, in the next few months.

Zimbabwe

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Well, with the election, I’ve taken my eye off the ball with regards Zimbabwe.

It appears that there are two camps in the Zimbabwe crisis among the Southern African Development Community (SADC), led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who generally cuts Mugabe infinite slack, and President Ian Khama of Botswana, whose opposition to Mugabe is best described as vociferous.

I agree with Mr. Khama.

In any case, the SADC summit was held, and both parties attended, though Tsvangerai made it clear that he would not sign an agreement just to satisfy mediators, which is a not so thinly veiled swipe at Mbeki’s disasterous involvement in the process.

Of course, while this is all going on, ZANU-PF is still engaged in a broad ranging program of harassment, violence and intimidation….Same old, same old….

In any case, it’s refreshing to see that Jacob Zuma, who had Mbeki ousted as South African president, Zuma says SADC summit must force Zimbabwe deal | International | Reuters
is making it clear that he will not accept Mbeki’s do nothing style:

“As far as I’m concerned SADC must make those Zimbabweans reach an agreement,” Jacob Zuma told Reuters after a speech to the Cape Town Press Club. “They must force them.”

So it now appears that there may be a full summit of the SADC, which is pretty much a recognition that Mbeki is simply not up to the task here.

So they held the summit over the weekend, but which came to nothing.

It appears that there was an offer to “co-manage” the home affairs ministry, but I think that it’s clear that the MDC “co-manager” would have no voice in the matter, which they rejected.

In any case, it appears that Mugabe is now saying that he will unilaterally allocate cabinet positions.

One final note is that we now have confirmation of one of the more bizarre aspects of this whole affair, that the ZANU-PF for signing at altered the prior agreement document

Before any progress can be made the SADC leaders will have to resolve the controversy over the documents that were signed by the three Zimbabwean leaders. In an earlier report The Zimbabwean stated that they had been doctored behind Tsvangirai’s back by Zanu (PF)’s Patrick Chinamasa, MDC-M’s secretary-general, Welshman Ncube and one of Thabo Mbeki’s representatives.

We now understand Ncube had nothing to do with the doctoring and we apologise to him unreservedly. Patrick Chinamasa has admitted to tampering with the documents and to “accidentally” deleting two paragraphs which alter the document substantially.

I’m not sure exactly how you deal with people who see this as a legitimate negotiating ploy, and, short of declaring ZANU-PF a terrorist organization, and while it it is actively terrorizing its populace, this would be a misuse of the statute, I’m not sure what the US can do.