Category: Foreign Relations

Obama Victory Gets Status of Forces Agreement Signed

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Because they did not trust the Republicans to leave as promised:

“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”

The legacy of the Bush administration is the belief that they, and by extension the United States, could not be trusted to uphold agreements.

Russian Missiles to Kalaningrad

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The Russians legitimately see the BMD system in Poland as a threat, and they are taking what they see as appropriate action. (See also here)

This was foreseeable. It’s natural for the Russians to see the system as a direct challenge, particularly since the location of the interceptors and radar are better more suited to protecting Europe from Russia than from Iran, which is the putative reason for the installation in the first place.

It’s also a challenge to Obama, which complicates things, because it makes it harder for him to do the smart thing, which is to relocate the installation further south or cancel it completely.

Syria Blowback in Iraq

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Well, we now have a “senior American official” saying that the raid on the Syrian villiage was a warning to Syria.

Some warning, the Iraqi cabinet was already feeling their oats enough to make further changes to the deal, despite US threats to shut down all US operations in Iraq, military and otherwise.

No one believes them, becauseleaving is too politically crushing to Bush and His Evil Minions™.

But as a result of the raid, which was condemned by the government of Iraq, and is looking at further changes in the status of forces agreement to prevent this in the future.

Heck of a job, Condi.

US Stages Cross Border Raid into Syria

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We have reports the US launched a commando raid into Syria, and U.S. officials have confirmed the matter.

It appears that somewhere around 8 people were killed. It appears that the target was, Abu Ghadiya who was described as, “Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s “most prominent” smuggler of foreign operatives,” by US sources.

Needless to say, Syria and Iran have condemned the attack.

The analysis here seems to be that the Bush administration is doing this for two reasons, to coerce more action by the local governments against such people, and to establish a precedent for the next president to follow.

What I would worry about is someone like Cuba deciding that this precedent applying to the, and bullets flying in Miami as a result.

Some Insight on the Russian Psyche from a Russian

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From Stanislav Mishin‘s blog Mat Rodina, we find The Sixteen Reasons Why Russia Should NEVER Trust the West.

You can go to the site to get a bit more in exposition.

About half of the reasons are true, or at least true as one can when one is talking about international relations:

  • Western banks and institutions raped Russia in the 1990s, which is true. The bankers made money, the pensioners were out on the street, and teen aged girls were selling themselves as prostitutes in order to keep from starving.
  • Western Governments did cheer when Yeltsin shelled his own parliament
  • The West, particularly western oil companies do want control of Russian oil
  • NATO was expanded to the Russian border, despite promises to the contrary
  • NATO bombed Serbia, though I would argue that there were legitimate reasons, a genocidal regime, for doing so.
  • The West has a policy of explicit and extensive support to political enemies of Russia in the nations of the former USSR.
  • That the West’s moves into Central Asia following 911 were accompanied by attempts at regime change, or regime foreign policy change to create states generally hostile to Russian interests.
  • That the west abrogated treaties as soon as they were no longer convenient, most notably the ABM treaty.
  • That the west has provided fairly explicit aid to opposition groups in Russia. Clearly true, though I think he lists this one item as two on his list of 16.

Then there are those that I have doubts as to their significance or veracity. Either I have no knowledge of the truth of the statements, or I think that he is conflating basic international Realpolitik with explicit hostility:

  • That the west has been backing secessionist and Islamist movements within Russia, most notably in Chechnya. Certainly, given the consequences and how they might effect access to Caspian oil make them plausible, particularly when it appears clear that the US gave tacit approval for Saakisvili to launch assaults in South Ossetia.
  • That the Polish missile defense silos for could be used for the deployment of short range nuclear missile….Technically true, I put this in the paranoid section, it’s easier/safer to use SSBNs firing missiles on depressed trajectories.
  • That the West is giving asylum to people wanted by Russia, while demanding extradition of Russians to face western courts…Technically true, but meaningless, as a pretty standard standard state of diplomacy.
  • That the west went soft on the Taliban, and pressured the Russians not to respond militarily to them prior to 911 because they wanted an oil pipeline that avoided both Russia and Iran. True, but I don’t see it as overtly hostile, it’s just the Texas oil men running the US government. To quote The Godfather, it’s not personal, it’s, “Just Business”.

Then there is the tinfoil hat stuff:

  • That the West despises “Russian Patriotism and Christianity”
  • That the, “The West back every Jihad aimed at Orthodox Christians”

These are tinfoil hat, but it does reflect the deeply Xenophobic character of the worldview expressed here.

What I see as stupidity, he sees as malice.

I would say that this is particularly the case with NATO expansion, where the Euros were just too busy partying about the fall of the wall, and the US was looking at new markets for their military hardware and saw the need to replace Soviet legacy systems in new NATO members as a profit center.

I do think that Mr. Mishin represents a mainstream view in Russia, which begs the question, how is this addressed.

Unfortunately, many of the things that have been done, the feeding frenzy of the 1990s and the expansion of NATO cannot be easily undone.

As start, a forceful statement that the US is opposed to NATO membership for the Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan would be constructive.

I have little knowledge of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but it is clear that the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia have a few screws loose.

Additionally, it’s clear that the state security apparatus of Georgia has been thoroughly penetrated by the Russians, as the speed and effectiveness of the Russian military response shows that they knew of the specifics of the assault on South Ossetia for weeks in advance.

I am not a military man, but the idea of having an ally whose defense establishment is completely penetrated by another country does not fill me with glee.

Bush Caved Completely in Status of Forces Agreement

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The Washington Independent has the scoop. Basically, Bush and His Evil Minions™completely caved to Iraqi demands.

You’ll recall that they pushed back the date to 2011, for, as Nouri al-Maliki admitted, for US domestic political reasons, and that is what it says in sub-article one of article 25 of the agreement:

The U.S. forces shall withdraw from Iraqi territories no later than December 31 2011.

But wait, there’s more, there is also sub-article 6:

U.S. forces may withdraw from Iraq before the dates indicated in this article if either of the two sides should so request. The U.S. government recognizes the Iraqi government’s sovereign right to request a withdrawal of U.S. forces at anytime.

So we leave when we’re told to leave by al Maliki, and indirectly by his sponsors in the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Weekly Zimbabwe Update

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The short version is that everything is screwed up and the deal is collapsing.

There is, however some good news, which is that after Mbeki’s latest visit, the SADC has defacto taken him out of the process, because both sides have asked the SADC to intervene directly, as opposed to through Mbeki, in what Tsvangerai calls “Tsvangirai slams Mugabe’s dialogue of the deaf.”

This really should help things move along, because Mugabe no longer has a biased ally at the negotiating table, though actually holding the meeting may be problematic, because Tsvangerai cannot travel to the meeting until he is
given a passport by the government.

As a result of all this, we have warnings of new sanctions from the US and EU.

Both the MDC and Botswana have made calls for a new election, though one wonders how much of that is gamesmanship at the negotiating table.

Of course, nothing involve Zimbabwe would be complete without some truly bizarre machinations, in this case the accusation by the MDC that the deal that was formally signed was changed from what was negotiated, specifically:

  • an increase to the number of non-constituent senators issued to the Mutambara faction;
  • changes to a clause stating that a replacement for vice prime minister cannot be a non-constituent MP;
  • changes to the agreement that parties would jointly consult each other on the appointment of ambassadors and other key government officials.

Iraqi Status of Forces Agreement Near Signing

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Irt appears that the new pact calls fortroops to leave Iraqi cities by June with a complete widhdrawal by the end of 2011.

Basically, the Obama plan.

Also, it’s clear that the Iraqis knew that they had the US over a barrel, because immunity for US soldiers is severely curtailed:

U.S. negotiators demanded exclusive jurisdiction over all soldiers and contractors. But Iraq insisted on a role to convince the public that Iraqis – and not Americans – were in charge of their own country.

Under the compromise, the United States would have the primary right to try troops and Pentagon contractors for alleged offenses committed on American bases or during military operations, the officials said.

Such language would presumably shield troops from prosecution for accidentally killing civilians caught in crossfire during authorized combat operations.

But Iraq would have the first option to try U.S. military personnel and contractors for serious, premeditated crimes alleged to have been committed outside American bases and when they were not on an authorized mission, the officials said.

…

American troops would no longer be allowed to detain suspects or search homes without Iraqi legal authorization except in cases of active combat, the officials said. Anyone detained by the Americans must be handed over to the Iraqis within 24 hours

I would note that our status of forces agreements with our NATO allies and Japan give the local authorities far less access to soldiers accused of wrongdoing.

It appears that some members of Congress are having a cow over the potential exposure of US troops to Iraqi justice.

Unfortunately, the Iraqis know that if there is no deal by the election, it will be even worse for the ‘Phants, and applied the old adage, “If you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.”

Zimbabwe Deal Collapses

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Basically, because Thabo Mbeki wanted a deal to secure his legacy, he forced the MDC to sign a deal that wasn’t fleshed out, so now Mugabe has unilaterally appointed his minions to head the military, police, and state media ministries.

This means that the ZANU-PF would retain control of the country, and their thuggish “war veterans” would continue to operate with impugnity.

Representatives of the MDC have stated the obvious, that they should have waited until the details on power sharing were hammered out. Of particular interest is the quotes that point the finger for this failure squarely at Mbeki:

Various media reports quote informed sources as saying: “Tsvangirai made it clear that he did not trust Mugabe and insisted that the key issue of the allocation of ministries should be put into black and white first and vowed he would not sign the deal if this condition was not met,” said a source who negotiated for Tsvangirai’s party. “Mugabe had promised that all the parties would have a key ministry and even suggested that he would retain Defence and Agriculture, while Tsvangirai would be allocated Home Affairs and Information. Mutambara was supposed to get Justice and Youth.”

But the sources said Mbeki lambasted Tsvangirai, after Mugabe had declared his commitment to making the deal a success. “Mbeki told him, ‘Heads of states are already here for the signing of this deal and you say you cannot sign’ – and Tsvangirai had no option,” said the source. Mbeki had held private talks with Tsvangirai the previous Tuesday as the power-sharing deal remained deadlocked.

It is now blindingly clear that Mbeki is, as I have repeatedly said, is the problem, not the solution.

Not surprisingly, Tsvangirai has threatened to withdraw from the power sharing deal as a result.

In an attempt to put out this fire by adding gasoline, Mbeki is headed back for more negotiations.

The right move would be to replace Mbeki with someone who isn’t in Mugabe’s pocket.

As a result we are seeing another refugee flood into South Africa, and threats of of new sanctions against Zimbabwe.

Mugabe’s thugs are returning to form, with riot police beating protesters.

It appears that the main driver of this is the fears of Mugabe’s generals that they would be subject to criminal prosecution if the opposition takes any control of the state security apparatus.

Morgan Stanley Is Not Dead.

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Kind of like that old man in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

We had Moody’s looking at downgrading Morgan Stanley’s debt, followed by their stock tanking, so their Mitsubishi UFJ was demanding more favorable terms to make a capital infusion, which led to
the Treasury department offering a promise protection to the Japanese investors, which means that group of government acronyms was just about ready to seize them.

After much hand wringing, and many attempts to make a buck off the situation by people not directly involved in the deal, they sealed the deal today.

One of the consequences of the collapse of the Japanese financial markets in the 1990s is that many of the companies are cash rich. They had to be to survive 15 years of very tight credit.

We may see a lot more of this for Japanese entities as a result.

I Wonder if Some of Those Tranch 3 Options Will Go to Japan

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Because Eurofighter is pushing very hard to win Japan’s F-X contest.

The leading contenders are the Typhoon, the Super Bug, and an F-15E variant.

The Japanese already operate the F-15, and have assembled C and D models, and Australia uses the F/A-18E/F, which gives both aircraft an advantage.

The Typhoon’s advantages will come down to supercruise, an area where the Japanese have expressed interest, and frontal radar cross section, where the F-15 variants lose, but the Typhoon and the Super-Hornet have an advantage.

As an interceptor, the Typhoon is clearly superior, at least if fitted with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar.

Given its relatively feeble air-to-air capabilities, I can’t see the JSF being used in air defense.

Gates Says U.S. Forces Agreement in Iraq Near

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The devil, as always, is in the details, and while I think that Gates and the DoD want to get out as quickly as is possible, Bush and His Evil Minions™ really do want to settle their successor with Iraq as a firm commitment.

The sticking points:

But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to U.S. soldiers for acts committed in Iraq, whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground.

Same old, same old.

U.S. Senate Votes to Make Nonproliferation a Joke

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To quote Crooks and Liars on the U.S. Senate voting 86 to 13 to approve the nuclear arms deal with India.

Needless to say, this is one of the few diplomatic accomplishments of this administration, wiping their ass on the non-proliferation regime studiously created over the past 40 years so that US nuclear companies can make a few bucks.

This makes the single most dangerous issue in the world, fully militarized nuclear warheads on delivery systems in Pakistan and India even worse.

I’d say “mission accomplished”, but Condoleeza “The Worst Secretary of State Ever” Rice has managed to screw up even this. She visited India after the Senate’s approval, and could not sign it because of unspecified bureaucratic issues.

I guess someone forgot to pay the service contract on the State Department copying machines.

Russia Has a Clue on the Ukraine

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It appears that they are offering major shipbuilding contracts to the Ukraine, including the construction of their carriers, in order to better relations.

Unfortunately, it appears that Vladimir Putin is clueless on the Ukraine, or he got a severe attack of the stupids, because he just accused Ukraine of assisting Georgia in the war.

It’s reassuring to know that other nations’ foreign policy can be as f%$#ed up as ours.

Well, That Prevents the Space Station from Becoming an Expensive Door Stop.

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Or more accurately, it prevents it from becoming a marginally less productive doorstop from where it is now.

Michael Griffin, NASA Administrator, is now saying that he is not seeing excessive Congressional opposition to the continued purchase of Soyuz flights to support the space station.

I’m of a mixed mind. This makes it easier to shut down the Shuttle, which is easily the most self destructive program that NASA has ever embarked on, but the Space Station is a pretty useless and expensive boondoggle too.