Category: Foreign Relations

Georgia, Russia, and the End of US Hegemony, and Updates

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First, Seumas Milne has a very good article noting that the US is no longer the “hyperpower” it was in the mid 1990s, and Russia just showed it in its recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The US military is too overstretched to do anything meaningful there, even if Russia did not have somewhere around 2000 nuclear warheads, and on the diplomacy side, countries now require an indication that it serves their national interests when they are asked to follow the US on a military adventure.

The US is still the only remaining world power, but Russia is one of a dozen or so regional powers who are now able to challenge the us in their regions.

In a very real way, it is the end of empire.

Russia has rebuilt its military into a credible fighting force over the past decade. 10 Years ago, the Georgian military would have still lost by dint of numbers, but they would have held out for weeks, and not collapsed in a day.

I will also note that I think that Putin believes it when he says that United States encouraged Georgia to attack South Ossetia. I believe it too, and I imagine that in a decade or so, we will have historians confirming the fact.

For what it’s worth, we now have evidence that diplomats don’t have to be Bush political appointees to be complete idiots, case in point, Daniel Fried, who is claiming that Russian military actions are a sign of weakness, “But being angry and seeking revanchist victory is not the sign of a strong nation. It is the sign of a weak one.”

So, that would make invading Iraq….What?

Meanwhile, the US military is looking at ways to rebuild the Georgian military, which strikes me as imprudent, at best.

It was the military aid which convinced the Georgians that they could start this military adventure in the first place.

The EU is warning Moscow to stay out of the Ukraine, but I really don’t think that Russia is looking at rolling up the Ukraine.

I could see that situation developing if a Ukrainian nationalist comes to power and starts trying to ethnically cleanse the region, but I don’t see anyone being stupid enough to do this…..At least no one on the scene right now is stupid enough.

That being said, the reaction of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) regarding the recognition of those provinces, where Russia is a member, was decidedly tepid, and the Asian former Soviet Republics who are its members (with China) are among those most likely to be supportive.

And in the comedy as foreign policy department, Georgia is calling for the UN Security Council to take action against Russia…..Ummmm….What part of “veto” don’t you understand?

For what it’s worth, we now have a report, albeit a self serving one from South Ossetia’s prosecutor general on the numbers of casualties from the initial Georgian assault, 1,692 killed.

I would take that with a serious grain of salt. It probably is more than the 130 stated by other sources though.

Georgia: Dueling Presidents

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Kind of like “Dueling Banjos”, only it’s both Medvedev and Saakashvili, both writing an OP/ED for the Financial Times.

I think that they are both very sparing with the truth, but one sounds like a mealy mouthed politician, and the other sounds like a complete tie chewing nutjob.

Medvedev’s bullet points:

  • The Ossetians and the Abkhazians wanted independence.
  • Upon independence, Georgia stripped Abkhazia and South Ossetia of Autonomy, and engaged in brutal military operations against ethnic minorities.
  • That the West encouraged Saakasvili to make broad claims against the region.
  • That the recognition of an independent Kosovo encouraged secessionist movements in Georgia.
  • Following the recent conflict, he felt compelled to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence.

Saakashvili’s bullet points:

  • Russia intends to redraw the map of all of Europe.
  • Russia was issuing passports to Abkhazians and South Ossetians to get a claim on these regions.
  • That the Russians were actively ethnically cleansing Georgians using, “using arson, rape and execution.”
  • That the Russians were already invading when the Georgians attacked South Ossetia.
  • That the Russians have designs on Ukraine, Muldova.
  • That Moscow is determined to wipe out democratically elected governments in its “near abroad”.

These are both self serving statements from men, they are both less than completely frank.

One of them, however, sounds nuts.

Bush and His Evil Minions&trade Frack it Up Again: DPRK Nukes Edition

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Because Bush/Cheney is unwilling to take the DPRK off a terror watch list, as it has promised, they have stopped dismantling their facilities, and are threatening to reconstitute them.

Because Cheney wants to swing his dick around*, about the only thing remotely like a positive foreign policy accomplishment is about to go down the drain.

It’s behavior like this which make North Korea a paranoid nuclear power. It makes them believe that the US is just waiting to attack them.

*Sorry for that image.

Maliki Says Hard and Fast Deadline in Iraq

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And it appears that there will be no “they aren’t permanent, the US will leave before the sun dies” superbases” either:

“It is not possible for any agreement to conclude unless it is on the basis of full sovereignty and the national interest, and that no foreign soldiers remain in Iraqi soil after a defined time ceiling,” Mr. Maliki said in a speech to Shiite tribal leaders in Baghdad’s Green Zone.

George W. Bush, you are completely Pwn3d.

As if Things Didn’t Already Suck for Georgia

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Dick Cheney will be visiting Tbilisi next week, which should be unpleasant for everyone involved.

Cindy McCain is going there too, doubtless to provide tips on make-up, face lifts, and shoe purchases, in addition to her obvious expertise in drug abuse.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian Duma voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, but there has not yet been a definitive statement by Medvedev, as the formal recognition of a state is the president’s and not the Duma’s prerogative, though I expect one shortly, because of the Kosovo precedent.

The US is warning that this is “unacceptable”, and I expect that the Russians will consider this with just as much seriousness as the US considered similar Russian warnings on Kosovo.

I supported, and continue to support, the independence of Kosovo, but one of the negative consequences was that it provided a precedent of secession of regions in Europe, and it’s entirely possible that we may see a similar movement in the Crimea in the next few years as a result.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and France are saying that Russia remaining in the so-called buffer zones is a violation of the cease fire, and Russia is maintaining that these are called for under agreements negotiated in the 1990s, and are thus covered by the cease fire.

My prediction: I expect formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as sovereign nations by Russia in the near future, and significant distancing from Georgia, or at least from Saakashvili by the West. It’s already happening in “Old Europe”, and I would expect it to occur in the US in January.

Georgian Fallout on Israel-Russian Relations

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Well, it looks like Israel-Russia relations are a little bit cool now, because of Israel’s arms sales to Georgia, though, as I mentioned earlier, the Israelis shut that down when they thought war was likely.

On the bright side, it appears that they will be holding talks on the middle east, which implies a continued relationship.

On the not so bright side, we have rumors of increased Russian arms sales to Syria, including the advanced long range S-300 system, though Syria has denied this.

We also have a report (Ynetnews, not sure of the quality of the source) that the US is pressuring Turkey to shut down the Israel Syria talks that it is hosting, because Syria took Russia’s side in the Russo-Georgian war.

It’s petty and stupid if true, and considering that we still have Condi Rice running state, I am therefore inclined to believe it.

Georgia Update

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It appears that the Russian pullout is in fact happening, though they are taking up stations in their buffer zones, and they blew up military installations on the way out.

The UN Security council is currently deadlocked, with the Russians demanding that force to reunify the provinces be specifically forbidden, and the US demanding that it not be, and that “Georgian territorial integrity” be specifically affirmed in the document.

I also heard (no link, radio report) rumors that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be declaring independence at some point in the near future.

Georgia News

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It appears that by late last yearIsrael scaled back arms sales to Georgia last year, because they saw a war between Georgia and Russia brewing.

Based on what I’ve read at this point, it appears that, with the South Ossetians, there was no one within 1500 km who did not know that the Georgians were preparing for an invasion of the breakaway province.

Meanwhile, Georgia is suffering economically, both as a result of transportation disruptions and a flight of foreign capital.

Meanwhile, in response to NATO’s downgrade of relations, the Russians have frozen cooperation with NATO, which includes things like anti-drug operations and supply routes to Afghanistan.

On the military side, while the Russian counter-offensive was clearly successful, there are accusations that the Russian Air Force was unprepared, with little or no effort made in the initial stages of the war to take out surface to air missile and radar sites.

Mikhail Gorbachev has written a blistering editorial excoriating the west and the western media, that he feels was in the pocket of Georgia.

It looks like the promised Russian pullout is procedeeding, albeit slowly, though Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili is claiming that the pullout is widening the occupation of Georgia.

I think that it’s clear at this point, despite Saakashvili’s fluent English and his Columbia University degree, which counts for way more than it should in US diplomacy, he’s just a bit…..well….nuts.

Just When You Thought that Zimbabwe’s Path Could Not Get Any More Twisted

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Well, it appears that Robert Mugabe has stated his intent to reconvene the Zimbabwean parliament, because it seems that Arthur Mutambara splinter faction holds the margin for a majority, even though yjr MDC-Tsvangerai is very clear that this will jeopardise the power sharing talks.

As if this was not Mugabe’s goal in the first place.

For what it’s worth, I rather like this article, The bullying black Englishmen, and how it adds a new layer to the already complex interactions going on here.

Basically the authors thesis is that the bad actors in this drama, Mugabe, Mbeki, and Matambara, all of whom were educated in the West, see Tsvangerai, who was not, as unworthy of power by virtue of this:

With his humble origins and poor school record, Tsvangirai lacks not only the lofty Western educational qualifications that his three opponents display in their wordy speeches, witticisms and articles, but their sartorial style.

Bulging out of his cheap suits, Tsvangirai seems uncomfortable alongside the three Savile Row dandies, who are said by some close to the negotiations to despise the former trade unionist and principal Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader.

It appears that every society has its despised minority, and in southern Africa, it’s Africans.

Zimbabwe Negotiations Appear to Go Nowhere

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Tsvangerai is insisting on real executive power as prime minister, which makes sense, as he won the election, but this is a major sticking point, which is why the SADC summit ended without a deal.

So the SADC is pressuring Tsvangerai to cut a deal with Mugabe that does not involve real power for the MDC, with the threat that the splinter MDC-Mutambara would ally with the ZANU-PF in parliament otherwise, which indicates to me that the SADC, or some of the members of the SADC, don’t really care about the quality of governance in Zimbabwe, they just want the problem to go away.

South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Kosovo

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First, it appears that there is evidence of looting and burning by South Ossetian militias. It’s unclear how much of this is ethnic violence, and how much is simple opportunism.

The Russians are not doing a whole bunch about this right now, they are busy destroying the Georgian security infrastructure under their control, but it does appear that they have arrested some militia men.

This does parallel what happened in Kosovo following the expulsion of the Serbian army, though with the Russians in control, it’s likely to get worse than it was in Kosovo with NATO troops who were somewhat less tolerant of the activities of the KLA post liberation.

Meanwhile, Serbia is lobbying the UN to refer the matter of Serbian independence to the International Court of Justice, which is awkward for the US, who has to argue that Kosovo can and should be independent, but that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should not be.

Zimbabwe Update

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First, the Mugabe government seized Morgan Tsvangerai’s passport at the airport, but returned it after threats from Botswana’s President Seretse Khama Ian Khama threatened not to attend a regional summit.

Tsvangerai is saying that he is committed to the negotiations, though with the entire passport debacle, Mugabe’s commitment is in doubt.

One interesting bit of information is that a mining company is holding talks with the MDC about platinum concessions, which indicates that someone thinks that there is a chance that someone other than Mugabe will have control of such things.