Category: Foreign Relations

What is Going on in Georgia

I knew that Russia decimated the Georgian army, but I had no clue as to how totally completely they owned them:

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

So the Georgians have forsworn the use of force to get back the provinces, Russia has the right, for an indeterminate amount of time, to stay in Georgian territory, and take “additional security measures.”

Meanwhile, the Russians are telling George W. Bush and the Georgians to pound sand on the autonomous regions:

Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.

“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.

“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the UN Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

Georgia is going to be smaller in a few years.

There is a Cease Fire in Georgia, Sort of

It looks like there has been a cease fire accord signed between the Russians and the Georgians.

As to the net result of the accord, the Washington Post, being the paper that Bushies leak to when they want credibility (Moonie Times does not cut it), strongly suggests that Moscow capitulated to Western demands, because they were concerned about their role in international bodies.

I think that the reporting of the Los Angeles Times and the The Guardian, which see this as a Georgian capitulation.

The Georgian army has largely disintegrated, and the conditions of the terms are highly favorable to Moscow:

The key demands are that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force to resolve Georgia’s territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint “peacekeeping” contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces.

(emphasis mine)

The Russians are also maintaining their right to “additional security measures” until foreign monitors were in place.

This would support the reports that the Russians are still advancing (see also here, here, here, and here), and that the Russians had destroyed Georgian naval vessels.

Some of the reports had a convoy heading from Gori to Tbilisi, but this was denied by the Russian military, who said that they were, “Demilitarizing the area near the South Ossetia border so that Georgia could not launch new attacks.”

I don’t see the Russians entering Tbilisi, though I could see them setting up artillery in range of the city as a means of intimidation.

We are also getting reports of burining and looting in areas under Russian control.

It appears that the Russians are not doing this, but that Ossetian militias are, and the Russians are taking no action, to stop them.

Thomas “The Mustache of Pablum” Friedman is Proved Wrong Again

Back in 1996, Thomas “The Mustache of Pablum” Friedman had a theory:

So I’ve had this thesis for a long time and came here to Hamburger University at McDonald’s headquarters to finally test it out. The thesis is this: No two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other.

The McDonald’s folks confirmed it for me. I feared the exception would be the Falklands war, but Argentina didn’t get its first McDonald’s until 1986, four years after that war with Britain. Civil wars don’t count: McDonald’s in Moscow delivered burgers to both sides in the fight between pro-and anti-Yeltsin forces in 1993.

You know, you would do more for the betterment of humanity, if you flipped burgers, as opposed to writing OP/EDs for the Times.

H/T Matthew Yglesias, who gives us this picture of the Tbilisi McDonalds:

Out of the Mouth of der Spiegel

Jürgen Habermas, writing in der Speigel, understands the problem with the proposed changes in EU organization:

The failed referendums are a signal that the elitist mode of European unification is, thanks to its own success, reaching its limits. These limits can only be surmounted if the pro-European elites stop excusing themselves from the principle of representation and shed their fears of contact with the electorate.

This is the basic problem. You create a, “referendum over a treaty that is too complicated to be understood,” and when it fails, the solution is to eliminate the democratic element of the decision making.

Georgia Daily Update

First, let’s go meta and explain why no nation on earth should trust Bush and His Evil Minions in a diplomatic context:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also been noticeably absent on the diplomatic scene, having failed to interrupt her holidays to fly to Tbilisi in support of the Georgian government.

This is actually easily understood. She’s an academic, which means never allow reality to alter your view of the world, and never cut a vacation short.

In any case, the Russians have officially declared an end to military operations, though there is clearly some combat still going on.

Hopefully, it will die down in the next few days.

Of interest is the fact that Georgia must remove its troops from the area and sign a binding renunciation of force against both South Ossetia and Abhkazia.

If they don’t get that, then the Russians are saying, “no deal”, and if they do get that, then Saakashvili is done as a political force in Georgia.

I think that he’s done in any case.

Interestingly enough, I see a pattern of tribalism in this description of Georgian Mikheil Saakashvili’s comeuppance.

Specifically, it appears that much of his credibility in terms of the actions that he has taken, and the west’s view of him, come from the fact that he got his law degree at the George Washington University Law School, and when he purged the civil service and universities, he replaced them with other western trained personnel.

When I look at coverage he has received, and for that matter the coverage of other leaders of dubious records, it appears that those old school ties make a very big difference as to who the press covers what they do, particularly when it is less than savory.

Just When You Thought that Zimbabwe Could Not Get Any More Screwed Up….

There are now reports that Arthur Mutambara, whose party, the MDC-Mutambara, has 7 seats, and thus the margin of majority in the Zimbabwean parliament, may have cut a deal with Mubame, though his representatives are denying this, or claiming that there is a deal, but that it would not take effect unless Morgan Tsvangerai, or at least the MDC-Tsvangerai, was also a part of the agreement.

If this is a sellout by MDC-M of MDC-T, which I see as likely, then we know why Mugabe agreed to talks, because he needed time to stack the deck.

JSF Office Looking to Make Special Sale Price Available to Partners

Basically, they are trying to make a fixed price fly-away offer to these nations in the $58-63 million range if they order right now. (Note: total acquisition cost is generally around double fly-away cost)

The JSF office is concerned, with no small justification, that in competition against aircraft in service (or a modification of an aircraft in service in the case of the SAAB Gripen NG) which can guarantee prices, that they will lose too many sales, and so lose economies of scale, which leads to procurement costs, which leads to unit cost increases, and so on, and so on, and so on.

Russia Looking to Move Bombers to Belarus

They are looking at basing missiles and bombers in Belarus the anti-missile installation in Poland.

It’s not surprising. As I’ve said before, the location is better at shooting down Russian missiles, than it is for shooting down Iranian missiles, which is the stated purpose.

It appears to me that there is a policy by Bush and His Evil Minions to antagonize Russia in the hopes of recreating a cold war, which might favor Republicans electorally.

Well, It Appears that these Colors Do Run

Let’s be clear: the air in Beijing is a miasma of pathological chemistry, and members of the US Olympic Bicycle team were completely justified in wearing filter masks when they flew in.

It looks like as a result of some arm twisting from Steve Roush, the chief of sport performance for the U.S. Olympic Committee, they all signed a letter that he drafted apologizing for wearing a mask, though bicyclist Mike Friedman said, “I’m not sorry for wearing the masks at all.”

This is a health issue. Athletes are delaying going to Beijing to minimize their exposure to the air. The bicyclists are completely justified in their actions.

Zimbabwe Update

It appears that there has been positive movement on power sharing.

I’m wondering if that might have anything to do with the announcement by the MDC that they have no intention of returning land seized from white farmers, though they will, “ask the international community and multilateral lenders to help compensate farmers whose farms were confiscated by Mugabe’s government since 2000”.

It might also just be the fact that the only thing less popular in Zimbabwe than Mugabe is returning the land to white farmers.

In any case, even with the New Zimbabwean dollar having 10 zeros dropped, it appears that the gasoline coupon is the most trusted currency in the nation.

You Know that the ISI will be There

Pakistan is demanding consular access to Aafia Siddiqui, who is accused of trying to murder US personnel at an Afghan police station.

While it’s clear that this is their right under international treaty, my guess is that at least one of the people sent to deal with her will be an agent of the ISI, the notorious Pakistani intelligence organization, which has been linked to support for al Queida and Taliban activities, most recently the bombing of an Indian mission in Pakistan.

They will want to ensure that she knows nothing, or will say nothing, regarding any ISI involvement in her activities.

Karadzic: Holbrooke Promised No War Crimes Trial

Between a Karadzic and Holbrooke, I won’t venture a guess on who to trust, as I’ve never believed that Holbrooke’s casual slip about Valerie Plame was unintentional.

Holbrook could have promised this, or he could have not promised this, or he could have said it in a private moment with no intention of following through with his promise.

I don’t know, but I do not trust Richard Holbrooke.

Russia Gains Control of Turkomen Gas Exports

This development cements Gazprom’s position as the 800 lb gorilla in the world natural gas market.

It looks like they will sign similar projects with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

An interesting note is that the deals appear not to be particularly good for Gazprom, it’s unlikely that they will make much money out of them, but what it does do is likely kill a gas pipeline on a southern route through Turkey, which the US had been pushing to minimize Russian influence in Europe.

Oh Crap! The US-Iraq Forever Deal Seems Back On

It looks like the status of forces agreement is back in active negotiation, complete with bullsh@% “time horizon”.

The Bush administration’s embrace of a flexible timeline for pulling U.S. troops from Iraq has accelerated negotiations between Washington and Baghdad over a long-term security pact, officials from both sides said.

The optimism marks a turnaround from just a month ago, when big differences seemed to have deadlocked talks over the terms of a continued American military presence in the country. In June, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the talks were at a “dead end,” dimming hopes of reaching a deal by July 31 — a goal the Bush administration has pushed hard to meet.

This month, however, the White House said it had agreed to a “general time horizon” for troop withdrawals, breaking from its long-held public resistance to the notion. The change has helped overcome differences on other issues, such as immunity for U.S. troops, negotiators on both sides said.

Great googley moogley.