Thank God.
No matter what your opinion on his peace initiatives, it’s clear that a person who is negotiation with an eye toward redeeming himself from charges of corruption is less likely to cut a deal that will last.
Elections will be sometime early next year.
Desperation does not make for good statesmanship.
Issues between the US and India and China over farm exports killed the deal.
Not surprising. As Krugman notes, trade deals are not about real free trade, but rather “enlightened mercantilism”, so he doesn’t see it as the end of the world.
I am actually far less of a free trader than he is, and I see the current deals as damaging people far more than it helps people, so I think that some changes, including more transparency in adjudication bodies and the elimination of the idea that regulation is a taking, should be a core value to proceed.
TPM has a nice takedown of Randy Scheunemann, who in addition to being corrupt, he’s tied into the guy who sold access to the White House, is also an absolute horror show in terms of his policies.
Go read.
Both the European Union and the United States have expanded sanctions against Zimbabwe
As to the negotiations that have been going on for a few days, we have the ZANU-PF saying that the results of the runoff are ‘Non-Negotiable’, but that could be put down to normal gamesmanship in any negotiation.
As to what will happen in the negotiations, the The Grauniad* and the Times of London have two diametrically opposed views of what is happening next, with the Guardian suggesting that the talks are a ploy, and that Mugabe is using them for time to prepare for even more extreme violence against the opposition, and the Times of London suggesting that South Africa is insisting that Robert Mugabe and his allies to surrender real power in Zimbabwe.
I think that the Times is wrong for a number of reasons. First, as the Guardian notes, this sort of negotiation has happened before, in the late 1980s with Joshua Nkomo’s ZAPU party, with no real power devolving to ZAPU, and second because it would be completely out of character for Thabo Mbeki to insist that Robert Mugabe do anything.
I expect it to get much worse before it gets better.
*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It’s nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, “The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad.”
Well, it appears that Thabo Mbeki, the friend of brutal genocidal rulers everywhere, is “concerned” about the possibility of crimes against humanity indictments against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, because it might make negotiations more difficult.
Once again, we see that there is no tyrant, no mater how homicidal, that Mbeki does not feel compelled to embrace.
He spent years claiming that HIV does not cause AIDS, and when public pressure required a reversal on that, he decided to create his own, “save the tyrants,” charity.
Condoleeza Rice, once more attempting to make the world look like it did before the USSR collapsed, has failed again, this time in attempting to form a NATO style security union.
In 1992, she suggested that Boris Yeltsin not be accorded the formalities of a head of state, because she thought that the USSR was coming back “real soon now”, and since then, she has done her level best to recreate a Soviet style menace out of Russia.
I imagine it’s because her so called area of expertise (see the Yeltsin example above), the USSR, has gone away, and so she is trying to recreate academic relevance.
Don’t worry dear, you sucked at being a Sovietologist too.
Thomas Schweich, the former enior counternarcotics official in the United States Embassy in Kabul, is claiming that the Afghan government is hopelessly corrupt and that Afghanistan is nearly a narco-state.
The allegations as reported are alarming, but when you read his essay on the his experiences there, it becomes far less concerning.
It’s clear that this guy is a hard core drug warrior. He opposes payments in lieu of growing poppies, supports aerial spraying of defoliants, military operations for poppy eradication, etc.
This is precisely the sort of crap that pushes peasants to the Taliban, but he sees everything through the lens of “drugs bad”, and ignores secondary effects, so he’s now writing a tell-all.
It is this myopic view that created the disaster of prohibition, and is fostering the disastrous ‘war on drugs” now.
Fidel Castro wrote an online column saying that, “Raul did very well keeping a dignified silence.”
Both Russia and Cuba have everything to gain from ambiguity, and so I think that they will continue to be ambiguous.
That’s part of Teddy Roosevelt’s idea behind the hole “talk softly” foreign relations.
I would note that the rumor is not about a permanent base, just a refueling base, but that would still give NORAD fits.
The last link gets into the opposition of Kumari Mayawati to the measure. She is the defacto national representative of India’s Dalit (untouchable) population, and based on what I’ve read about her indicates that she is a very skilled politician, and so probably she’s setting herself up for a larger role in the next government.
One thing that I am sure of though is that it won’t make it through this session of the US Congress, because the Hyde Act requires that Congress be in session continuously for 30 days before a vote is held, and that will not happen in late July of an election year.
Specifically, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
There are now rumors that Russia may start basing nuclear capable bombers in Cuba in response to the US installing an ABM system in Europe directed at them (let’s be honest, if it were actually aimed at the Iranians, as claimed, it would be further south, to give coverage to Turkey and Italy).
General Norton Schwartz, the nominee for Air Force chief of staff, said, “I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line, for the United States of America.“
I agree….as does the expansion of NATO eastward, and a the European missile defense system crosses a red line for the Russians.
Russian political culture is not driven by a need to engage in the world. Russian political culture is driven by a paranoia about the world, and we seem to be taking steps guaranteed to stoke their paranoia.
It’s almost as if someone wanted to recreate the Cold War for political gain.
According to Zimbabaw’s state run newspaper, The Herald, reconciliation talks are to start tomorrow.
It’s not a bad sign, but I don’t expect to see progress while Mbeki is the chief mediator.
A slightly more positive note, the EU is pressing ahead with more sanctions.
Considering that these programs were all founded by people who prospered under Batista, it’s not surprising that corruption is the rule rather than the exception.
If your goal is to restore corruption and klepto-capitalism to Cuba, it should be no surprise when the organization you found is corrupt and klepto-capitalist.
Our position towards Cuba has been as self-destructive as anything that I’ve seen in US history.
US negotiators are a $1.4 billion cut, off of a out of a $48.2 billion dollar cap under the current agreement.
Honestly, it should be zero, at least on the world market, and then there’s the whole “patented species” crap that is used to shake down 3rd world farmers.
In the next round of the WTO talks, the EU is offering to cut farm tariffs by 60%, which I count as either an empty gesture, or funny numbers. Farmers have too much power in EU nations, particularly France, for this to happen.
In related news, negotiators are targeting US farm support, though again, I doubt any meaningful movement will be made.
The Communists have said that they will not support the government, because they believe that the deal impinges on Indian sovereignty, and should the vote fail, there would be new elections.
Should be interesting, as it appears to be awfully close.
On the bright side, Mugabe and Tsvangerai have signed an agreement to enter into negotiations.
I’m not optimistic about the outcome, as Mugabe is still engaging in retribution, and just threatened to expropriate “unfriendly” firms.
Even more concerning is that Thabo Mbeki appears to still be the only mediator involved in the process, which seems to be a recipe for an “Epic Fail”.
It’s clear that his clear favoritism toward Mugabe has weakened the SADC, the regional governmental organization, with a number of countries, most notably Zambia and Botswana, breaking with Mbeki’s accommodation of Mugabe.
Lindsay Beyerstein of Majikthise, has the scoop.
Money quote:
This is explosive news because Payne’s company’s entire business model is international influence peddling in exchange for oil and gas leases from politically unstable and dictatorial regimes.
Mr. Straight Talk, my ass.
There’s a surprise. The walkback from Maliki’s endorsement of Obama’s withdrawal plan came after a call from a Bush admin official.
And a horse’s head, one would assume.
So, now we have a report that Bush and Maliki have have agreed on a timetable for troop withdwawal.
The devil is in the details*, and I expect the details to include huge military bases in Iraq for a very long time.
*Or maybe he’s at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue until January 20, 2009.
I wrote earlier about Obama wanting to give a speech at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, but that Bush and His Evil Minions™ were pressuring German Premier Angela Merkel to turn him down.
Well, he’s going to give his speech at the Berlin Victory column (see also here) instead.
The gate is in the distant background, for what it’s worth.
Background here.