Category: History

Well Duh!!7

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Reviewing recent events, French President Nicolas Sarkosy has concluded that Greece should never have been admitted to the Euro zone:


French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said allowing Greece into the eurozone in 2001 was a “mistake”.

He said Greece was “not ready” at the time. But, he added, it could be rescued thanks to Wednesday’s EU deal on the euro debt crisis.

This should surprise no one.

Greece, except by virtue of its geography, is closer to a 3rd world nation than it is a 1st world nation.

Any sensible individual would have noted that Greece was iffy for entry into the EU’s free trade zone, so it was always clear that a common currency would be a stretch.

What happened was that the Eurocrats in Brussels, Paris, and Bonn/Berlin thought that the post Berlin Wall Unity Schtick European Union trumped reality.

FWIW, I stil think that the solution here, at least in the short term, is to kick Germany out of the Euro, and allow. A rising Deutsche Mark to fix imbalances.

Osama bin Laden Won

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OK, it’s the 10th anniversary of 911, and looking back, I can draw no other conclusion.

As a result of the events of that day we are:

  • Embroiled in two ruinously expensive wars, neither of which has any meaningful end in sight.
  • Have no money for even the most basic infrastructure.
  • Have set up a state security apparatus that is structured, and frequently functions, as the core pillar of a police state.
  • Have convinced the generation after mine that the idea of a unipolar world, with US military and Hegemony is foolish.
  • Has turned us into torturers.
  • Has set to policies that create more terrorists.
  • Has massively expanded and radicalized, the right wing.

I would suggest that anyone who hasn’t read Eric Frank Russell’s magnum opus Wasp, in which a man is sent to be an agent provocateur on the planet of an empire at war with Earth, and his mission is not to collect intelligence or do damage, but rather to provoke an overreaction by the authorities:

“Phew!” Mowry raised his eyebrows.

“Finally, let’s consider this auto smash. We know the cause; the survivor was able to tell us before he died. He said the driver lost control at high speed while swiping at a wasp which had flown in through a window and started buzzing around his face.”

“It nearly happened to me once.”

Ignoring that, Wolf went on, “The weight of a wasp is under half an ounce. Compared with a human being its size is minute, its strength negligible. Its sole armament is a tiny syringe holding a drop of irritant, formic acid, and in this case it didn’t even use it. Nevertheless it killed four big men and converted a large, powerful car into a heap of scrap.”

………

“However,” Wolf went on, “the problem becomes less formidable than it looks if we bear in mind that one man can shake a government, two men temporarily can put down an army twenty-seven thousands strong, or one small wasp can slay four comparative giants and destroy their huge machine into the bargain.” He paused, watching the other for effect, continued, “Which means that by scrawling suitable words upon a wall, the right man in the right place at the right time might immobilize an armoured division with the aid of nothing more than a piece of chalk.”

The country has changed, and none of these changes to our benefit, and none of them were really required, but rather the product of mindless over-reaction.

We are those drivers in that doomed car.

Hoocoodanode? The Frogs, That’s Hoocoodanode

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Yes, Wikileaks, the gift that keeps on giving,™ has yet more beneath the rocks information on just how f%$#ed up Wall Street was.

It turns out that the French were desperately warning the US Treasury Department that a crash was inevitable, because of endemic fraud in our financial system:

In 2007 top US and France officials knew rampant fraud being committed by regulators, rating agencies and Wall Street Banks would soon cause a global financial collapse.

While investors and nations around the world were happily giving trillions of dollars away to crooked Wall Street bankers top officials in the United States and France knew the market would soon collapse and people would be robbed of millions.

While raising the issue that the role of government regulators and rating agencies needed to be reviewed in the wake of the upcoming crisis, US officials ignored calls from the French government to enact necessary regulation to stop the rampant fraud that would soon result in investors losing tens of trillions of dollars they had invested into the markets.

The cable reveals that while discussing the ability of the French banks to survive the crisis, French President Sarkozy was pushing the US to enact regulations to forestall the crisis. Instead, Henry Paulson responded by telling Sarkozy not to overreacted because the” it would take months, not weeks, for credit to be re-priced” telling France this is “not a major crisis.”

Paulson went on to warn that the major problem was with the German banks and which would require a bailout from the taxpayer while warning that the assets held by banks but covered up from investors by being held off-balance sheet presented systematic risk to banks and to sovereign wealth.

The cable clearly reveals that taxpayer bailouts would be needed. Paulson further up sticks up for the Wall Street hedge fund saying they were not to blame for the crisis while acknowledging there were major Wall Street transparency issues.

To summarize, the cable reveals that top government officials in France and the US knew Wall street banks were committing fraud in the origination and packaging of sub-prime mortgage and lying to investors about the resulting securities they were creating and selling. Officials knew banks were also lying about their own liabilities and hiding them from investors by keeping the assets off their balance sheets. The government also knew that both regulators and ratings agencies were participating in the scheme.

So our regulatory apparatus was aware of deep and systemic control fraud on the part of our largest financial institutions over a year before the house of cards collapsed, but decided to do nothing.

This was no Black Swan.  This was a blatant and systemic looting of the system, with implicit taxpayer backstop.

Where are the prosecutions?

As an aside, the most tightly held secrets held by our state security apparatus are not about protecting the nation and its citizens, but rather about protecting the most powerful amongst us from embarrassment and ridicule.

We really need to embed the Swedish concept of Offentlighetsprincipen (openness) into our constitution.

H/t DC on the Stellar Parthenon BBS.

Holy Sh%$ (Economics Edition)

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Remember the recession? Well it turns out it was much worse than we were led to believe at the time:

Two days after that, Americans received grim news about the economy: in the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP contracted at a 3.8% annual pace—the worst quarterly performance since the deep recession of 1982. More bad news hit on February 6th, when the BLS released new labour market figures. It reported an employment decline of 598,000 in January, following on revised drops in employment of 577,000 in December and 597,000 in November—a three-month drop of 1.8m jobs. On February 10th, the Senate passed its version of the stimulus, worth $838 billion. In conference committee, the bill shrank to $787. On February 17th, Mr Obama signed the bill into law.

In the months and years that followed, Washington provided additional support to the economy, perhaps ultimately contributing approximately $1 trillion in total stimulus. But that first bill was the big bite at the apple. The White House looked at the economic situation, sized up Congress, and took its shot. Unfortunately, the situation was far more dire than anyone in the administration or in Congress supposed.

Output in the third and fourth quarters fell by 3.7% and 8.9%, respectively, not at 0.5% and 3.8% as believed at the time. Employment was also falling much faster than estimated. Some 820,000 jobs were lost in January, rather than the 598,000 then reported. In the three months prior to the passage of stimulus, the economy cut loose 2.2m workers, not 1.8m. In January, total employment was already 1m workers below the level shown in the official data.

OMFG!

That’s depression level of contraction.

So, not only was the this recession the worst since the Great Depression, but it was even worse than first reported.

And so the stimulus in 2009 was even more inadequate than was previously reported.

This is why moderation in such situations is so disastrous.

Daniel Ellsburg Says the Most Depressing Thing This Century

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When he notes that all the crimes committed against him, crimes which were a significant part of the impeachment case that drove Richard M. Nixon from office under threat of impeachment, are now legal:

Richard Nixon, if he were alive today, might take bittersweet satisfaction to know that he was not the last smart president to prolong unjustifiably a senseless, unwinnable war, at great cost in human life. (And his aide Henry Kissinger was not the last American official to win an undeserved Nobel Peace Prize.)

He would probably also feel vindicated (and envious) that ALL the crimes he committed against me–which forced his resignation facing impeachment–are now legal.

That includes burglarizing my former psychoanalyst’s office (for material to blackmail me into silence), warrantless wiretapping, using the CIA against an American citizen in the US, and authorizing a White House hit squad to “incapacitate me totally” (on the steps of the Capitol on May 3, 1971). All the above were to prevent me from exposing guilty secrets of his own administration that went beyond the Pentagon Papers. But under George W. Bush and Barack Obama,with the PATRIOT Act, the FISA Amendment Act, and (for the hit squad) President Obama’s executive orders. they have all become legal.

There is no further need for present or future presidents to commit obstructions of justice (like Nixon’s bribes to potential witnesses) to conceal such acts. Under the new laws, Nixon would have stayed in office, and the Vietnam War would have continued at least several more years.

Likewise, where Nixon was the first president in history to use the 54-year-old Espionage Act to indict an American (me) for unauthorized disclosures to the American people (it had previously been used, as intended, exclusively against spies), he would be impressed to see that President Obama has now brought five such indictments against leaks, almost twice as many as all previous presidents put together (three).

He could only admire Obama’s boldness in using the same Espionage Act provisions used against me–almost surely unconstitutional used against disclosures to the American press and public in my day, less surely under the current Supreme Court–to indict Thomas Drake, a classic whistleblower who exposed illegality and waste in the NSA. [ED Note:  The Drake Case Collapsed, and the government settled on a plea for a no-jail-time misdemeanor]

Drake’s trial begins on June 13, the 40th anniversary of the publication of the Pentagon Papers. If Nixon were alive, he might well choose to attend.

While the erosions of civil liberties began under Reagan, and picked up steam under Bush II, it’s clear that that Obama has devoted the power and prestige of his office to further expanding the role of the Presidency and normalizing what are extreme views of executive power.

Obama is like Nixon, without the charm.

I Believe That This Crosses the Stupidity Event Horizon

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Sarah Speaks


Revere’s official response

So, because she is in New England, she makes reference to Paul Revere, only she gets it really wrong, “He who warned, uh, the, the British that they weren’t gonna be takin’ away our arms, uh, by ringin’ those bells and, um, makin’ sure as he’s ridin’ his horse through town to send those warning shots and bells that, uh, we were gonna be secure and we were gonna be free and we were gonna be armed.“

The fact that anyone listens to Sarah Palin or takes her seriously says worse things about the USA than anything that Osama could have dreamed.

I pray for the day that her 15 minutes of fame is done.

H/t UM at the Stellar Parthenon BBS for catching the story, and finding the Revere pic.

Deep Thought

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Yesterday, we were driving to a distant SCA (medieval recreation group) event, about 200 km (120 miles), and my almost-14 year old and my 11 year old were being annoying, both to each other as well as to Sharon* and me.

I finally told them that they were acting like the 3 Stooges, without the Stooges level of maturity.

The scary thing is that it’s true.

*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

People With Way Too Much Free Time…

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Perusing what Uncle Ted called “a series of tubes,” I came across Think Tank: The Economics of Death Star Planet Destruction:

Lee
What’s the economic calculus behind the Empire’s tactic of A) building a Death Star, B) intimidating planets into submission with the threat of destruction, and C) actually carrying through with said destruction if the planet doesn’t comply?

Doesn’t the Empire take a huge economic loss from the lost productivity of an entire planet? They were presumably paying taxes and providing resources to the rest of the Empire. Presumably the loss of that planet’s output would have to be made up by increased output from other planets that were either slacking in productivity due to rebellion or threatening to rebel and withdraw from the Empire altogether. It doesn’t seem to make good economic sense.

McNeil
This is a pretty standard imperial tactic for dealing with rebellion. The Romans would do this in the eastern empire every once in a while. A city would become a hotbed of rebellion, threatening to pull other cities into the action. The Romans would wipe out that one city, no matter how wealthy (Palmyra comes to mind) to put any other potential rebels on notice. Kind of like a mastectomy. You lose one productive part of the body in order to keep cancer from spreading.

…………

Lee and Mcneil, along with Perich, Fenzel and Stokes (read the whole thing provide an interesting dialogue on economics and governance that is (I think) unintentionally a rather trenchant analysis of the current American imperial hubris.

Just read it.

On the 150th Anniversary of the Start of the Civil War……

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Here is a good survey of the lies that southerners tell about the war.

In addition to the normal lies, like it not being about slavery, it also reveals that the in almost all the states in question, a majority of the population did not want secession.

Instead, the process was manipulated by the slave holders to get the desired results.

The closer you look at it, the more the myth of the noble lost cause looks like a slimy con game played by the richest people in the south on the average person in the south.

The Real History of the Boston Tea Party

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I love me some good history

It appears that the Boston Tea Party, i.e the dumping of tea in Boston harbor, was not about “Taxation Without Representation,” but rather about tax cuts without representation.

The issue at hand was the fact that the East India Tea Company was granted a specific exemption to the tax on tea, which allowed them to drive it’s small “Yankee Trader” competitors.

So here is a note to the Teabaggers out there, it ain’t about taxes, it’s about sweetheart deals to big business.

In your face, Dick Armey and the Koch brothers.

H/t Crooks and Liars

Running the Numbers

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So, some of you might be wondering why we all went on an extended weekend down to Williamsburg, Virginia, despite the fact that it’s the off season, and so many of the attractions (see the aforementioned Busch Gardens post) are closed.

Well, about a month ago, we went to computer show, and picked up a new (used) laptop for my daughter, and my wife filled out an entry form, and we got a call for a timeshare (they call it a vacation share) in the area which included their giving us space in one of their vacation condos for 3 days.

We talked about it, and we decided that this would be a lot of fun, and listening to a sales pitch would be well worth it.

We declined their offers, which by the way got sweeter and sweeter as time went on, pleading poverty, which is only half true.

The other half is that I can do basic math in my head, I are a mechanical engineer after all, and their numbers were simply not that good.

Basically, the spaces were set up as townhouses, with two apartments, each being a 2 bedroom with a decent kitchen and living space, nice bedrooms, and a kickass master bathroom, it included a jacuzzi, a separate shower, and a toilet in its own separate room.

The basic offer was around 10 grand, with a down payment of 2-4K with a 6-8 year loan at 7 percent, and around a $500 a year maintenance fee.

All this for a complex that was about 5 miles away from the Colonial Williamsburg Historic Area.

They talk about this, and show how, for decent, and honestly not as good, hotel space, you would be spending $30K over the next 30 years for lodging, and then discuss how this is a prime location that could be swapped for other space.

Well, ignoring opportunity costs, the economic fact that dollars spent today are worth more than dollars spent later, let’s look at the numbers.

You get 2 weeks a year, either fixed (the cheap option I describe above), or floating, so you are paying for 2 weeks out of 52.

Let’s be charitable, and say that you are paying for 1⁄25of a year, or ½ a month.

This makes purchase price around $250,000.00 (10+K x 25) and the maintenance fee equivalent to about $1000.00 a month.

Note that this is all in the suburban areas of Williamsburg, where nice houses are well under the price that they asked (annualized) if you are more than 5 blocks from historical area/William and Mary College, and then you have a $1000/month rent maintenance fee.

When you consider the fact that the developer did this on what had been soybean fields at some point in the past 3 or so years, it’s certainly a good deal for them.

Obviously for certain people, those who are certain that they will hit the area year after year, and who might want to swap a week with someone in some other location, it might make sense, but for most of us, this is simply not a sensible financial or lifestyle decision.

As for me, I want to vacation in different places, or to visit with family, which makes it even less attractive to me.

Still, I don’t mind the 2 or so hours that I spent on the sales pitch, along with having to say “no” to the very earnest sales person, it was worth it for the rest of the weekend, which was a lot of fun.

Went to Colonial Williamsburg Today

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Click for full size


This was a posed shot, but it is rather more true than I would like to think.


The House of Burgesses


The black smith shop


Halberds in the Armory, I thought that they would be pre 1700s, but it appears that I was wrong

So, we went to colonial Williamsburg today.

Even my studiously blase teen (13) daughter enjoyed herself, though she was on her mobile constantly updating her Facebook page.

A good time was had by all.

We are hoping to hit Busch Gardens tomorrow before heading home.

Vos? Sarah Palin iz a Yid*

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When juxtaposed with the phrase, “Don’t retreat, reload,” this is an unfortunate turn of phrase

So Sarah Palin is now claiming that criticism of her “target map” and her shooting inspired rhetoric is blood libel:

“Vigorous and spirited public debates during elections are among our most cherished traditions,” Palin wrote in an early morning post on her Facebook account on Wednesday. “But, especially within hours of a tragedy unfolding, journalists and pundits should not manufacture a blood libel that serves only to incite the very hatred and violence they purport to condemn. That is reprehensible.”

(emphasis mine)

<Facepalm>

For those of you unfamiliar with Jewish history, the blood libel is the accusation that Jews use Christian baby’s blood to bake their matzohs for Passover.

This fraud was the cause of the deaths of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Jews over the past 200 years.

Needless to say, the idea that anyone who isn’t Jewish would use the term for something as meaningless as  criticism over their rhetoric is offensive, ahistorical, narcissistic, and just plain wrong, particularly for someone who is not Jewish.

The level of venality for a non-Jew to use this to condemn people for saying mean things about her simply boggles the mind.  I cannot imagine anyone being so self-centered and inconsiderate to do this, so Sarah Palin must be Jewish.†

The response to this has been actually been fairly universal.

Months ago, Elizabeth Hasselbeck, The View‘s resident right winger, called the map despicable months ago.

Additionally, former Bush speech writer turned conservative apostate David Frum, has called her out for unleashing her attack dogs, while National Review nepotism hire Jonah Goldberg, calls the use of the phrase stupid in so many words., and trust me, Jonah Goldberg knows stupid like few others.

Additionally, Jewish Groups, including the ADL, which normally spends it time sucking up to ignorant bigots have condemned the use of the phrase.

Pat Buchanan, though, was true to form, saying that he, “thought it was an excellent statement“.

For what it’s worth, Joan Walsh’s assessment of the statement, that Palin has fatally wounded her Presidential chances, is, I think, completely wrong.

Her analysis misses a basic Republican imperative, to piss off liberals and Democrats any chance they get. Really, when you look at GOP frat boy behavior, it’s clear that much of what they do is driven by this petty need.

By pissing off liberals with the “blood libel” comment, she cements her relationship with the movement conservatives and teabaggers, and pissing off Jews, who constitute a minuscule part of the party, is just gravy, because it shows the Talibaptist wing of the Republican party that she is one of them.

That being said, I would still argue that the simplest hypothesis is the one most likely the correct one, and that would be that she is a person suffering from Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

*My best effort at translating “What? Sarah Palin is a Jew?” into transliterated English.
†I’m not asking for evidence of Todd’s circumcision, thankyouverymuch!

Economic Quote of the Year*

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Final thoughts from an economist on Armistice Day:

There are plenty people out there (I’ve just seen a documentary on Channel 4 presented by one) who don’t believe in Keynesian economics, but who think that the Great Depression was ended by the Second World War. In other words, paying men to dig holes and fill them in again is a ridiculous policy, compared to the sensible and effective course of action of paying men to dig holes and die in them.

H/t Mithras.