Category: Iran

Russia Will Not Sell S-300 to Iran

President Medvedev has announced that the Sale of S-300 surface to air missiles to Iran.

Russia has always taken a minimalist approach to obeying UN sanctions regarding the Iranian nuclear, so this is a big deal, particularly since these missiles, with their 400+ km detection range, end up as a formidable area defense system against conventional aircraft, and a formidable point defense system against stealthy targets, at least to the degree that my wild assed guess regarding detection range are justified.

The Iranians are Selling Someone the Brooklyn Bridge

No, I am not talking about their nuclear program.

I am talking about their claim that they have flown a prototype stealth aircraft, or it may be a subscale drone demonstrator

The source is Fars News, and the aircraft is called the ‘Sofreh Mahi'(flatfish):

“The research model of this plane which staged a successful flight passed all radar-evading tests that we desired,” Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Army Air Force General Aziz Nasirzadeh told FNA.

The General said that the flatfish-inspired shape of the aircraft as well as the materials used in its structure have provided the aircraft with the radar-evading capability.

Ummm….Flatfish? You are calling your aircraft a Flounder?!?!?!

I need a screen wipe.

If It’s In The Weekly Standard, They Are Either Liars of Incompetent

Well, the good folks at Defense Tech flag an article by John Noonan at The Weekly Standard suggesting that Iran’s new solid fuel multi-stage missile represents a quantum leap in missile capabilities:

I’m a little late coming in on the latest Iranian missile salvo, but there a few salient points still worth mentioning. First, the Sajjil-2 is a solid fuel rocket. That’s the type of power source that we use in our own Minuteman III rockets, as solid fuel is stable in flight and requires no preparation time ahead of a launch. Liquid fuel, which powers the Iranian Shahab-3 fleet, is highly corrosive and sloshes around in a rocket’s downstage, destabilizing flight and degrading accuracy. It’s so toxic that the fuel eats away at a missile’s internal tanks, and thus needs to be inserted right before launch. That prep time is important, as it gives us a little extra warning prior to a hostile missile launch, which could be used to kill Iranian birds before they fly. With this new Sajjil-2 system, Iran has the ability to keep their missiles hot and ready for execution, killing any chance of an advanced warning or neutralization actions prior to a launch.

………

(emphasis mine)

I understand that John Noonan, like most of the staff of The Weekly Standard, wants to bomb Iran, and wants Iran bombed, but this does not justify his not telling the truth, and in the two areas that I’ve highlighted, he’s not telling the truth:

  • The need to load the fuel immediately before launch.
    • Simply not true. The US and Russia started using storable liquid propellants, nitrogen tetroxide oxidiser and a hydrazine UDMH mix propellant in the both the Titan II, and SS-18, and had them in ready for immediate launch for years, perhaps 15 seconds from when the button is pushed until the missile exits the silo.
  • Fuel sloshing
    • Fuel tanks have baffles to prevent sloshing. The tanks are specifically designed to avoid this issues, and while it may be “rocket science”, it’s a problem that has been solved for years.
    • The numbers accuracy for both the Titan (900m), and the SS-18 (250m) show that these missiles accuracy, much like their solid fuel counterparts, is a function of the guidance system, not any fictional sloshing.

Let’s be clear, for ICBM’s, solid fuel is better. There are a whole bunch of problems, as exemplified by the Titan II silo explosion that resulted from a workman dropping a socket that punctured a tank.

Additionally, if you want to go with a mobile launcher, it’s somewhere between insane and impossible to transport a loaded liquid fueled rocket.

Additionally, the operational costs of a liquid fueled system are higher, with, for example routine replacement of seals and X-Rays of the tanks to verify fuel levels.

So, a solid fueled ICBM, or IRBM is marginally more capable, and much simpler to operate, but running around with your head on fire about it indicates that one is either incompetent, or dishonest.

Fighting Terrorism With Lesbian Pr0n

The Wall Street Journal has a bomb shell of s story.

It appears that insurgents in Afghanistan have hacked into the video feeds of US drones:

Militants in Iraq have used $26 off-the-shelf software to intercept live video feeds from U.S. Predator drones, potentially providing them with information they need to evade or monitor U.S. military operations.

Senior defense and intelligence officials said Iranian-backed insurgents intercepted the video feeds by taking advantage of an unprotected communications link in some of the remotely flown planes’ systems. Shiite fighters in Iraq used software programs such as SkyGrabber — available for as little as $25.95 on the Internet — to regularly capture drone video feeds, according to a person familiar with reports on the matter.

(link to SkyGrapper software mine)

I am surprised by this. Not so much by the idea that anyone in a situation to be surveilled and attacked by the US might attempt to use SIGINT to defend themselves, that it just basic common sense, but by the fact that the US military has been using an unencrypted feed to transmit data.

And, of course, we have the accusation that it was Iran who actually hacked the feeds, or developed the method to hack the feeds, because, much like in the case of the the Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFP) used by insurgents in Iraq, it is claimed that only the Iranians have the technical know-how to use such a system.

Of course, in the case of the EFPs, this accusation relied on a number of lies, in particular the idea that EFP construction was so technically challenging that only the Iranians could do it, despite the fact that the IRA was using EFPs in Ireland over 30 years ago, and that they actually discovered workshops where IEDs were manufactured…………It turns out all you need to make an EFP is a simple lathe and some copper.

The idea that once someone discovered the video feeds were unencrypted, and my guess would be that this has been known since the Kosovo campaign, because the Serbs were typically all over this kind of stuff.

In any case, the military is now claiming that this breach has been fixed, implying that encryption has been added.

I’m wondering what took so long. The satellite TV providers have been encrypting their signals with minimal computational overhead for decades.

Of course, I have an improvement on this idea, and it involves lesbian pr0n. (You were wondering when we would be getting to the pr0n, weren’t you)

In addition to using encryption, the video feed should use steganography to embed the signal inside an unencrypted non-tactical video feed.

The unencrypted video should be lesbian pr0n,* because the then the insurgents would in order to extract the true signal, be forced to watch nekkid women (Oh my God, tits!) deriving sexual satisfaction (Oh my God, female orgasm!) without benefit of a penis (Oh my God…………You get the idea), and it just screws with their heads (both upper and lower).

One of the reasons for the pr0n, is because any relatively competent state actor would be able to decrypt a video feed in a relatively short period of time by gang tackling the signal with a video game based massively parallel super-computer.

*It was actually Bill Volk who made the suggestion.
Beside the fact that I am a smart ass.

Ummmmm…Not So Fast

It appears that the Telegraph in the UK has reported that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s family converted from Judaism to Islam and changed their name when he was 4 years old, largely on the basis of the change in family name from Sabourjian.

The problem is that this is simply untrue, according to the Guardian.

First, the Telegraph says:

  • That “Sabour” is the word for Talit used by Iranian Jews.
    • Not true: it means “thread painter”, and refers to those who work coloring fibers for Persian carpets.
      • Note that thread painting is not a traditionally Jewish profession in Iran.
    • The word used by Iranian Jews for the Tallit is “Tallit” (my experience with Iranian coreligionists) or Titzit (19th Century Iranian Judaism Scholar David Yeroshalm), both Hebrew words from scripture.
    • According to scholars, there is no word Sabour at all among Jewish dialects in Iran.
  • That “Jian” is a suffix that almost exclusively refers to practicing Jews.
    • Simply untrue. It’s a fairly common suffix.

What is true, however, is that surnames have come fairly recently to Iran, and that the “hicks in the sticks”, typically had surnames associated with the family profession, like “thread painter”:

The reason that Ahmadinejad’s father changed his surname has more to do with the class struggle in Iran. When it became mandatory to adopt surnames, many people from rural areas chose names that represented their professions or that of their ancestors. This made them easily identifiable as townfolk. In many cases they changed their surnames upon moving to Tehran, in order to avoid snobbery and discrimination from residents of the capital.

The Sabourjians were one of many such families. Their surname was related to carpet-making, an industry that conjures up images of sweatshops. They changed it to Ahmadinejad in order to help them fit in. The new name was also chosen because it means from the race of Ahmad, one of the names given to Muhammad.

But wait, there’s more:

Moreover, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s mother is a Seyyede. This is a title given to women whose family are believed to be direct bloodline descendants of Prophet Muhammad. Male members are given the title of Seyyed, and include prominent figures such as Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In Judaism, this is equivalent to the Cohens, who are direct descendants of Aaron, the brother of Moses. One has to be born into a Seyyed family: the title is never given to Muslims by birth, let alone converts. This makes it impossible for Ahmadinejad’s mother to have been a Jew. In fact, she was so proud of her lineage that everyone in her native village of Aradan referred to her by her Islamic title, Seyyede.

So, even if his father, or his father’s family were Jewish, he would not be, because Judaism is matrilineal, and if your mother is not Jewish, you are not Jewish, except by formal conversion.

Of course, I am competing with two links from two papers, the Telegraph, and the The Grauniad*, so why am I taking the side of the latter?

It’s pretty simple really: First, I have had Iranian Jewish friends, and the phrase “Sabour” never came up, and we did talk about Tallit in shul, and second, because the source was a newspaper formerly owned by Conrad Black, before he was sent off to a very well deserved stint in jail, and every story from a news outlet formerly owned by Conrad Black should be viewed with a jaundiced eye.

Additionally, you will note that that the Telegraph provides no on the record sources for its analysis, while the Grauniad* does, and goes into some detail as to the background of these sources.

*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It’s nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, “The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad.”

When a Hijacking Isn’t

I’m reading conflicting stories about what happened to the Russian freighter that was captured by pirates, but there are also reports that the ship was carrying S-300 SAMs (Probably the NATO designation SA-12) to Iran, and that the capture of the ship by “pirates” was a ploy by Russia to avoid delivery of missiles that had already been sold by someone who should have sold them.

In any case, it is definitely weird.

Iran in Turmoil

Steve Clemons, who knows about this stuff, has been talking to a number of his sources about what is going on in Iran, and that there is a real possibility of political assassination on both sides, along with levels of violence not seen since the early days of the Islamic revolution there.

Meanwhile, the Guardian is reporting that there are over 100,000 protesting the election in Terhran, despite it being banned by the Interior Ministry and that Iran’s “Supreme Leader”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has now ordered an investigation into allegations of vote fraud, which seems to be quite a climb down for him, as he certified Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory only hours after the polls closed, as opposed to the 3 day period normally required.

Iranian Election Goes Pear Shaped

There are some pretty good indications of vote fraud, at least according to Juan Cole.

He thinks that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is in control of the Interior Ministry, massively juiced his vote at the expense of his nearest rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Cole’s argument, and I find it persuasive, is that the vote tallies are almost completely lacking the regional, ethnic, and class divides that have heretofore been a fixture in Iranian elections.

The results appear to be a crude and hurried fraud, which may very well because clerical authorities expected Ahmadinejad to win outright, and were caught flat-footed.

Ahhhh….Sweet Sanity

It appears that U.S. and Iran will be working together to combat the Afghan drug trade.

This is basic common sense. Diplomacy can be based on common values or common interests, and there is a common interest here: The Shias in Iran, and the Sunni Taliban hate each other, the Taliban going so far as to murder Iranian diplomats, and Iran as a huge drug problem, with supplies from Afghanistan at its root.

There is a common interest here, and it can be the basis of joint action.

Iran Really Launches a Satellite This Time

We have both the report from Iran, and a report from JSR that they have observed the satellite and 2nd stage in orbit.

So it appears that they actually did it this time.

If you look at the launch (video below), I notice something odd, no ice, which implies the use of less efficient room-temperature propellants, which makes the technology more applicable to military uses, as it can be stored fully fueled in as silo or on the back of a TEL.*

*Transporter/Erector/Launcher

Maliki to Bush: Drop Dead

Nouri al-Maliki is now saying that he will not allow Iraq to be used as a base to threaten their neighbors:

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told Iran’s Arabic news channel on Friday that Iraq “will not let Iraq be a launching ground to threaten any country,” Al-Alam said on its website.

Just in case you are wondering, why yes, we have spent hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives to put Iran’s bitch in control of Iraq.

S-300 Deliveries to Iran Confirmed

Needless to say this represents a significant upgrade to Iran’s air defense capabilities:

One of the world’s most advanced air defense missiles, the S-300PMU1 Favorit (SA-20 Gargoyle), is designed to protect fixed sites against missile and air attacks. The system uses wheeled transporters for mobility. The Favorit system fires the 48H6E2 interceptor missile, updated with improved guidance algorithms, an improved warhead and enhanced ECCM capabilities. The system detects targets at ranges of up to 300 km and can handle up to 100 simultaneous tracks. Up to 36 interceptor missiles can engage targets simultaneously. Aircraft targets can be engaged between 3 and 200 km, and missiles can be intercepted at ranges of 5 – 40 km, and from 30 to 90,000 feet in altitude.

Against a stealthy target you could figure an engagement range in the 15 km range, based on the engagement distance being proportional to the 4th route of RCS, which means that they are not particularly effective for area defense, but for point defense of a specific target (nuclear facility) it could complicate the attack.

First a report of sale, now a report of delivery, in the space of a week and it looks like some are going to the Syrians too, though it appears to be a fixed installation geared toward protecting a Russian naval base at Tartous, and it is unclear as to whether the operators would be Russian or Syrian.