Needless to say, this is something that would concern any country that might be considering an air strike at their nuclear facilities.
The S-300 (SA-20) is a very capable system, with the S-400 (SA-21), which is apparently on offer for export, with no orders yet, even more so.
I ran the numbers on detection ranges about a year ago, using nothing but my basic understanding of physics, and the presence of either the S-300 or S-400 would concern me if I were doing mission planning.
Remember the stolen laptop that had “slam dunk” evidence of the Iranians having an active and aggressive nuclear weapons program?
Probably a forgery.
Son of Curveball.
It looks like once Hillary Clinton and refused to share a stage with Sarah Palin, someone got some common sense, and realized that inviting her was a bad idea, so the whacko with the Tina Fey glasses has been disinvited.
Everyone wins, except for John Sidney McCain III, Sarah Palen, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Funny how their interests seem so similar.
She was scheduled to give a speech at protest against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad going to opening ceremonies, and she pulled out when she found out that Sarah Palin had been invited too.
Protesting against Ahmadinejad in New York is political gold, and Clinton dropped out of the rally, and has been campaigning in Florida and other states, because she supports the Obama’s campaign for President.
So says the IAEA, and I’m sure that Darth Cheney is lobbying for an airstrike.
Certainly the ability to launch their own satellites is a capability that most nations desire, though I would note that a rocket that can put 100 lbs in low earth orbit could most likely put a 1000 lb warhead on a sub-orbital flight to almost anywhere on earth, based on my limited sens of orbital mechanics.
That being said, the Pentagon is saying that they doubt that the launch was successful.
Haaretz is reporting that the US rejected an Israeli request for military equipmment to aid with a strike on Iran, and I don’t buy it.
The reason that I don’t buy it is because Bush and His Evil Minions™ want to strike Iran, but if it’s an American strike, the political backlash is simply too uncertain.
The Bush administration would love an Israeli strike.
This is leaked information, coming either from the Bush administration, or the Olmert adminiatration.
If it’s the former, it’s a way to ratchet up pressure on Iran, if it’s the latter, it’s a leak designed to boost Kadima’s chances in the election.
The Raytheon built radar is intended for missile defense, and is rumored to be able to, “Detect a baseball at 2,900 miles”.
It should give Israel about twice the warning in the event of an Iranian missile launch at them, as it exceeds the stated performance of their Green Pine radar developed for the Arrow missile.
Truth be told, I think that they, along with most of the world, are hoping that really looking to move it to the next administration, which they hope will be less crazy.
If it’s Obama, they are probably right, but if it’s John Sidney McCain III, the sick old man has more of a hair trigger on the military option than Bush and His Evil Minions™ ever did.
Bush has reportedly authorized the State Department to set up a US interests section in Tehran.
Canoodling with the axis of evil, I see.
More seriously, it is a mark of how weak Bush has become on the foreign stage.
This is a remarkable statement from a member of the Kuwaiti government.
They are concerned that the US will take unilateral military action against Iran, which would destabilize the region.
This is of particular note because Kuwait is the strongest Arab ally in the region, and firmly Sunni and hostile to Iran.
When you’ve lots Kuwait, you’ve lost everyone.
He is saying that there are no supplies or reserves that can replace the loss of Iranian production.
Abdalla Salem El-Badri presents the price spikes as potentially “unlimited”, which is obviously hyperbole, but when one considers that there is no spare capacity, losing about 5% of oil production doesn’t just produce price spikes, it produces a real shortage, where one may not be able to find oil at any price.
If there were an interruption of this nature, I would expect oil to spike past $200/bbl within a few weeks.
But SecDef Bob Gates shot the idea down.*
Gates was right. The F-22 would be as useful in Iraq as tits on a bull.
There is no sophisticated air defense system, no opposing air power, and the aircraft need to get as low as possible in order to minimize collateral damage.
My guess is that the USAF wanted to deploy some Raptors in order to pitch them to Congress as “combat proben”, and Gates was having none of that.
When you also consider the fact that Iran would undoubtedly consider the F-22 being in theater as a prelude to a sneak attack, it would further destabilize the region.
*Pun completely intended.
Not gonna happen, because, as Tony Karon says, if they were seriously considering a strike at this time, they would not be telegraphing preparations.
Of course, he gets to quote an interview he did with Christopher Wallace, aka Biggie Smalls/the Notorious B.I.G, “On the streets, when someone is telling anyone who’ll listen that they’re going to kill you, you don’t have to lose any sleep over it. You’re not going to hear about beforehand when the real killer comes.”
I’m jealous.
While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the most prominent Iranian leader, it’s also true that he actually has very little role in foreign policy.
It now appears that officials who are involved in Iranian foreign policy are telling him to STFU, with Ali Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that, “Iranian officials must avoid making ‘provocative’ statements”, and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki saying that the EU proposals on Uranium enrichment were “constructive”.
There are more adults in the various executive branches of Iran than there are in the US White House.
Seeing as some in the administration *cough* Dick Cheney *cough* they see this as a win, win, I find the idea that they are funding military and terrorist actions in Iran to be credible.
My guess would be is that if an American special ops soldier were captured by Iran, they would consider it to be a lucky break for them, because it would allow them to strike.
It reinforces their view that American military might is the only way to conduct foreign policy, and they believe that it would benefit Republicans in November.
At least that’s what Dick Cheney and John Bolton say about the idea of opening up an official American Interest Section in Terhan.
Not much of a Craplinologist*, but it appears that Cheney lost on this, big time.
*Where “Crap” is the Bush administration. It derives from the phrase “Kremlinologist”.
The most prominent supporter of this is nepotism beneficiary Bill Kristol, but nutjob Daniel Pipes is saying this too.
They couch it by saying that this “might” happen, but they really lobbying the Bush Administration to bomb Iran.
What’s more, I think that they are specifically lobbying for bombing Iran just before the general election.
It looks to me like the increased chatter about a possible strike is being driven by three things, Bush’s petulant arrogance, the idea that the Republican party might gain political advantage from this, and the idea that Ehud Olmert might gain political advantage from this.
Faiz at Think Progress notes the following troubling detail in the proposed agreement, which a Dawa MP has objected to:
The Americans insist so far that is they who define what is an aggression on Iraq and what is democracy inside Iraq…if we come under aggression we should define it and ask for help.
This means that the US could use the status of forces agreement to justify an attack on Iran.
As Faiz puts it, “Since the administration is unlikely to get an Iran war authorized through Congress, it’s instead trying to sneak it through the Iraqi parliament.”