Category: Iran

Did Iranian agents dupe Pentagon officials?

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It appears that there is evidence that Iranian intelligence operatives infiltrated the various Iraqi and Iranian exile groups that called for war against Iraq in 2002-2003.

The aborted counterintelligence investigation probed some Pentagon officials’ contacts with Iranian exile Manucher Ghorbanifar, whom the CIA had labeled a “fabricator” in 1984. Those contacts were brokered by an American civilian, Michael Ledeen, a former Pentagon and National Security Council consultant and a leading advocate of invading Iraq and overthrowing Iran’s Islamic regime.

According to the Senate report, the Pentagon’s Counterintelligence Field Activity unit concluded in 2003 that Ledeen “was likely unwitting of any counterintelligence issues related to his relationship with Mr. Ghorbanifar.”

There is also Achmed Chalabi and the INC, though they are not mentioned in this article.

The Pentagon started an investigation of it, but Rumsfeld shut it down when he heard of it.

Read the complete article, including the hair brained scheme to overthrow the mullahs with ….. traffic jams.

4 Years ago, Matthew Yglesias suggested, tongue in cheek, that GW Bush was an Iranian mole…I now wonder how funny it really was….I’m just saying.

Bush’s “Iraq Forever” Deal In Trouble

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A majority of Iraq members of parliament have signed a letter to Congress rejecting Bush’s security agreement, which allows for 50 bases, control of Iraqi airspace, the right to arrest, immunity for US troops and contractors, and the ability to operate militarily without permission. (More details here)

Given how well US occupation has served the needs of the Iraqi people, this comes as no surprise, nor does Iranian rhetoric claiming that this deal is designed to enslave Iraqis.

Of particular interest is that Grand Ayatollah Sistani is not particularly supportive of the agreement, and appears to be demanding both parliamentary approval and a referendum, and there is no way that such a deal would pass on a referendum.

One shocker, to me at least, is that Ali Allawi, Ahmad Chalabi’s nephew, has written an article which appears to condemn the deal, making reference to the treaty with Britain in 1930.

One wonders if the Iraqis realize that Bush is a short-timer, and they are running out the clock in the hope of finding someone competent.

Former German FM Posits Israeli Attack on Iran

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Joschka Fischer, former German Foreign Minister, is writing that he expects an Israeli military strike on Iran.

It was linked to on Nouriel Roubini’s blog, and he goes into the potential economic/political implications:

  • Oil Spiking to well over $200/bbl.
  • Iran setting their dogs loose in Iraq.
  • Hesbollah going postal in Lebanon.
  • Hamas going postal in Gaza.
  • Difficulties in transiting the Persian Gulf, which might further increase oil prices.

While I agree that these consequences are likely, I disagree with Roubini on one point though, thinks that such an attack would guarantee a McCain victory, because he believes that, “Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House.”

There are two problems, the first is that if the Israelis act after the conventions, it will be explicitly seen as meddling in US partisan politics, and the blow back later will be too intense, and the Israelis understand the ebb and flow of party politics, and the second is that $200/bbl oil would do immediate damage at the gas pump.

Further, I think that Republicans no longer have the confidence of the American people on anything including national security.

Then again, maybe I am an optimist.

Ahmadinejad Foe Elected Speaker of Parliament

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This is not at all surprising. Except to the degree that he inflames the west, Ahmadinejad appears to be considered the George W. Bush of Iran, a complete loser and not too bright.

Ali Larijani, the new speaker, was previously the chief negotiator for Iran’s nuclear program, but should not be considered a moderate:

Larijani, who has also been a culture minister and head of the state-run broadcasting operations, has emerged as a powerful politician in recent years, running against Ahmadinejad for president in 2005. He was a critic of the country’s nuclear policies under the reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, and opposed the decision to suspend uranium enrichment. Yet his position moderated after he became the nuclear negotiator in 2005 and tried to press back against Ahmadinejad’s radical approach, which had left Iran increasingly isolated.

He is considered close to Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final word on state matters. Larijani remained Ayatollah Khamenei’s representative at the Supreme National Security Council despite his October resignation.

Sistani Will Object to US-Iraq “Security Accord”

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In which “Security Accord” means permanent bases:

Iraq’s most revered Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has strongly objected to a ‘security accord’ between the US and Iraq.

The Grand Ayatollah has reiterated that he would not allow Iraq to sign such a deal with “the US occupiers” as long as he was alive, a source close to Ayatollah Sistani said.

While this report is from a source that could best be described as partial, Iranian funded TV network, it jibes with reports that he has been quietly approving action against US and coalition forces.

As I’ve said before, I think that Sistani has been reticent, because he is concerned that occupying forces to do what the British did, put the Sunnis in charge, if the Shia are too strident, but that he believes that permanent bases cross a line.

According to this report, he said this to the Prime Minister in conversations, so if this leaked out, it came from Sistani’s camp, not Maliki.

U.S. Sits on Iran Weapons Report

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The excuse is that it’s been that they’ve, turned it over to the Iraqi Government* “to pressure Tehran to curb the flow of Iranian weaponry and explosives into Iraq.

Of course, these weapons are primarily going towards the militias of Dawa and ISCI, who are, nominally at least, the government in Iraq.

The reality is that they are doing what worked so well for Joe McCarthy. Claim to have a list, and use it as a club, even when no such list exists, or when such a list is so poorly made as to be laughable.

I imagine we’ll see selected leaks when Maliki attempts to use it for partisan political advantage during the provincial elections.

*An oxymoron if there ever was one.

I End Up on Some Odd Mailing Lists

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I get email from the “Minaret Foundation” a, “A free market Muslim perspective on economics, democracy, terrorism and Middle East conflict”, because I asked some questions via email regarding an article on the Medieval sugar trade.

Now I find this in my inbox, because I guess someone did a Technorati search on me.

Needless to say, trip to Iran is not on my agenda.

Religion & Media 2008 Thu, May 15, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Reply-To: Religion & Media 2008
To: ############

The Second International Conference on Religion and Media will be held in Tehran and Qom, Iran, from November 9th to 12th, 2008. We cordially invite all media researchers and scholars, representatives from diverse religious traditions, professionals and students involved with the subjects of the conference to attend and submit a paper. Further information could be found at conference website: http://www.religion-media.ir/

A few scholarships are available to partially subsidize the costs of participants with selected papers.

Sincerely,
Mahdiye Tavakol
Conference Coordinator

IRIB University,
Niyayesh Highway, Vali-e-Asr Street,
Tehran, Iran.
Tel: +98 21 22652238
Fax: +98 21 22652238
rm2008@religion-media.ir

And in the Depart of Finally Getting a F$#@ing Clue

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After something like 20 years of fraud and deception, someone in the US military has noticed that Achmad Chalabi is a con man who has played the Neocons establishment like a freaking violin.

Sources in Baghdad tell NBC News that as of this week American military and civilian officials have cut off all contact with controversial Iraqi politician Ahmad Chalabi, the former favorite of Washington’s once powerful neoconservatives.

What is it that Tom and Ray Magliozzi say? “Unencumbered by the thought process.”

Dude, read up on Bush and His Evil Minions™. You got nothing on them.*

*Truth be told, neither are intellectual slouches, having degrees in from MIT.

What’s Going on in Lebanon

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Well, it appears that proximate cause of this conflict boils down to two thing, control of the Beruit airport and Hezbollah’s communications system:

It has been announced by all sides that today is the first day of the civil war in Lebanon. This has been building with the steady assassination of political leaders since the conclusion of the war in 2006. Hezbollah is not happy, and all of a sudden the government of Lebanon has access to some very accurate intelligence.

It started with a tip regarding airport security and the means by which Iran was reportedly flying in military supplies to Hezbollah. It didn’t go over well with the militia when the government announced they were going to seize control of a security camera system in the Beruit airport. That was followed by the removal of the head of airport security, a member of Hezbollah.

It’s not particularly surprizing that this would lead to violence. You are talking about the supply lines and the communications network of Hezbollah, which are crucial to them tactically.

Hezbollah has now appeared to lave largely withdrawn from west Beruit, but they appear to still be aggressively confronting Walid Jumblatt’s pro government Druze forces east of the city.

Cease Fire in Sadr City

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There appears to be a tentative cease fire in Sadr City:

Under the terms of the agreement, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government would gain control over Sadr City, now a largely lawless area, and in turn give members of Mr. Sadr’s militia who were not actively involved in the fighting a guarantee that they would not be arrested.

I’m not sure that Maliki will have any meaningful control thouhg, though rockets into the Green Zone are likely to decrease, but this was shaping up to be a disaster for Maliki as well as Sadr:

The Iraqi government has done little to ease the crisis and allow medical and other aid to reach people. There has been almost no effort to repair the shattered neighborhood, where burned-out cars and piles of bricks from bomb-damaged houses are common sights.

If this had gone to a full offensive, we would have seen massive artillery and air strikes, and the neither Iraqi government nor the US military had resources available to handle the 100 thousand or so refugees who would have been created, which would have been politically disasterous for Dawa and ISCI.

Note that once again Iran had to take the lead in mediating this. Our military presence bolsters Iran’s regional ambitions.

Iraq, with an Iran Provocation Extra

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4 Marines died today, and Hiro Ibrahim Ahmed, the wife of President Jalal Talabani was the target of an assassination attempt, a roadside bomb targeting her as she went to cultural festival.

Note that this was in Baghdad, not Kurdistan.

I would also point to this story describing a pretty massive buildup at the Al Kut air base, which is just 35 miles from the Iranian border.

I can’t see this as anything but a deliberate provocation, or a prelude to an attack on Iran.

I think that Bush may attack Iran out of a petulant need to leave something else on his successor’s plate.

Eddie Haskell David Petraeus to Head CENTCOM

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Great. This is a man who has staked his personal reputation in Iraq, and now they want him to allocate resources between Iraq and Afghanistan. I wouldn’t expect much perspective here.

Even more disturbing are his lies regarding Iran, which implies that Bush and His Evil Minions™ now have someone who be willing to attack Iran without question.

Furthermore, this will create a problem for an eventual Democratic nominee, because It’s clear that Petraeus will be a voice for Iraq forever, otherwise he looks like the charlatan he is, and there will be political blowback if they try to remove him from the post.

My hope would be that the hearings for his appointment would be scheduled for sometime in late January, 2009.

Even Now, Bush and His Evil Minions™ Can Leave Me Dumbstruck

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Every time that I think that the Bush Administration can’t get any more self serving venal and incompetent, they rais the bar.

This time, it’s the worst National Security Adviser ever, shortly to be the worst Secretary of State ever, Condoleeza Rice, who has just basically called Muqtada al-Sadr a c@cks#cker.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mocked anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr as a coward on Sunday, hours after the radical leader threatened to declare war unless U.S. and Iraqi forces end a military crackdown on his followers.

Rice, in the Iraqi capital to tout security gains and what she calls an emerging political consensus, said al-Sadr is content to issue threats and edicts from the safety of Iran, where he is studying. Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month, and his future role as a spoiler is an open question.

“I know he’s sitting in Iran,” Rice said dismissively, when asked about al-Sadr’s latest threat to lift a self-imposed cease-fire with government and U.S. forces. “I guess it’s all-out war for anybody but him,” Rice said. “I guess that’s the message; his followers can go too their deaths and he’s in Iran.”

This from a woman unwilling to announce her visits to Iraq in advance, who spends her whole time in a heavily fortified walled city, and has something like 1000 soldiers, and an equal number of mercenaries protecting her.

Un f#$@ing believable.

An Insight into the Clusterf%$# in Basra

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It now appears that Petraeus has had a plan of a massive US offensive in Basra for some time, and Nouri al-Maliki, fearful of the political blow-back from US operations there, launched his own campaign last month.

The last three paras reveal that the politics here are Byzantine:

Bush administration suspicions of al-Maliki’s intentions could not have been eased by the fact that a delegation of pro-government parties traveled to Iran to ask the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to negotiate a ceasefire with the Mahdi Army. That ploy move, which did result in a tenuous ceasefire, raised the possibility that al-Maliki intended from the beginning that the outcome of the Basra operation would be a new agreement that would prevent the deployment of U.S. and British troops to fight the Mahdi Army during the summer.

Bush administration officials have been asserting that the most important thing about the Basra operation is that al-Maliki is now convinced that Iran is really an enemy rather than a friend. But al-Maliki’s Apr. 7 interview with CNN’s Robertson made it clear that he has not budged from his position that his government’s interests lie in an accord between Iran and the United States — not in taking sides against Iran.

“We will always reject the idea of any side using Iraq as a launching pad for its attack on others,” said al-Maliki. “We reject Iran using Iraq to attack the U.S., and at the same time we reject the idea of the U.S. using Iraq to attack Iran…”

Why the hell are we in there again?