Category: Middle East

OK, There is Someone Stupider than Amity Shlaes

No Comments

Hard to believe, but true.

It turns out that Gregory Levey is stupider than conservative affirmative action baby Amity Shlaes, the woman who was fired by that Communist rag the Financial Times for extolling Bush’s response to Hurricane Katrina in her reporting on the storm and its aftermath, because Mr. Levey is suggesting that Barack Obama should appoint George W. Bush as his Middle East envoy to aid in his diplomatic efforts in the region.

In related news, he suggested that Hannibal Lecter as chairman of the special White House committee on nutrition, Mary “Typhoid Mary” Mallon as head of food safety at the FCC, Timothy Leary as Drug Czar, and South Carolina Governor Rick “Hiking the Appalachian Trail” Sanford as head of the special working committee for ethics in government.

Great googly moogly.

Creating a More Target Rich Environment

No Comments

Russia is sending sending 50 armored vehicles to the Palestinian Authority.

I’m sure that the thinking is that this will better allow the PA to fight Hamas, but considering the PLO’s long history of ineptitude in anything remotely near conventional military conflicts, this just means that Hamas will have bigger targets to shoot at.

In the event of things getting hot with Hamas, they will last 2 days, against the IDF, less than 2 hours.

Thoughts on Netanyahu and I/P Issues

No Comments

I think that Benyamin Netanyahu is a corrupt nutjob, and his economic policies, specifically his his economic and fiscal embrace of Thatcherism, are almost as crazy as his security policy.

That being said, one of the goals of negotiation is to negotiate and the Palestinians have been consistently infantilized in this process.

In any other negotiation, whether it be the UAW and General Motors, Croatia/Slovenia border discussions, or two people dickering over a used car, people try to maximize their advantage in a negotiation.

To use the case of the used car, it means that the price on the window is higher than the dealer really needs to sell it at, and the car has been repainted, and the customer comes with a magnet to look for bondo and paint jobs, and parhaps a carfax.com report, and they start off very far apart.

This is what happens in negotiations. Both sides take positions as a starting point that are more extreme than they expect to actually get, and try to define the situation on the ground (paint jobs, bondo, etc.) to bolster their positions.

This is what happens, and once this does happen in negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians, things will move forward, toward an (inevitable) Palestinian state.

People who believe that the normal give and take of a negotiation process is somehow unfair and unjust, and must be somehow avoided, it will forestall meaningful negotiations. It raises unrealistic expectations, and in the case of the Palestinians, those expectations mean that real negotiations, which will produce a less than optimal solution for everyone on both sides, create a very real risk of the death of whoever signs off on such a deal.

It probably won’t be Netanyahu who will be the one to finish the deal, but someone will.

As to the what a Palestinian state would look like, I rather imagine that it will be a typical failed Arab government, much like the corrupt and autocratic Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, UAE, etc., but it will be their failed government, and that is what they want.

One final note: A solution to this problem will not solve any other problem in the world. The idea that all of the problems in the Middle East somehow run through Jerusalem and Ramallah is as nonsensical as it is widely held.

This does not make the problem not worth solving. This is worth solving on its own merits.

Documentation of Turkish Knowledge of the Armenian Genocide

No Comments

The archives of the old Ottoman Empire are opening up, and fairly conclusive evidence of the direct knowledge of the authorities of the Armenian Genocide has been uncovered:

With his book, “The Remaining Documents of Talat Pasha,” Bardakci (pronounced bard-AK-chuh) has become, rather unwillingly, part of this ferment. The book is a collection of documents and records that once belonged to Mehmed Talat, known as Talat Pasha, the primary architect of the Armenian deportations.

The documents, given to Bardakci by Talat’s widow, Hayriye, before she died in 1983, include lists of population figures. Before 1915, 1,256,000 Armenians lived in the Ottoman Empire, according to the documents. The number plunged to 284,157 two years later, Bardakci said.

To the untrained ear, it is simply a sad statistic. But anyone familiar with the issue knows the numbers are in fierce dispute.

….

Hilmar Kaiser, a historian and expert on the Armenian genocide, said the records published in the book were conclusive proof from the Ottoman authority itself that it had pursued a calculated policy to eliminate the Armenians. “You have suddenly on one page confirmation of the numbers,” he said. “It was like someone hit you over the head with a club.”

Seriously, it’s reality, and it’s something that the Turkish people should acknowledge.

Suck on this Serdar Argıç.

When Lebanon is A Safe Haven for Your Money….

No Comments

You know that we are completely boned:

Instead, the silver-haired banker became a hero by playing it very, very safe. In 2005, he defied pressure from the Lebanese business community and bucked international trends to issue what now looks like a prophetic decree: a blanket order barring any bank in his country from investing in mortgage-backed securities, which contributed to the most dramatic collapse of financial institutions since the Great Depression.

So as major banks in America and Europe were shuttered or partly nationalized and thousands of people in the U.S. financial sector were laid off, Lebanon’s banks had one of their best years ever.

Billions in cash continue to pour in to the relative safety of Lebanese savings accounts, with comfy but not extravagant yields of 6%. A nation shunned for years as the quintessential failed state has become a pretty safe bet, or as safe a bet as investors are likely to find in this climate.

Lebanon as safe haven….I have a real problem wrapping my head around this.

Economics Update

No Comments

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index showed a small bump in January, though it should be noted that December was an absolut disaster, so I’m callijng dead cat bounce, particularly since the 3 month moving average is at a record low.

It also appears that the gift that keeps on giving, AIG, is looking for more welfare from the government.

The US government already owns 70% of the company. How about giving all of senior management the boot….TODAY.

BTW, it appears that the rising levels of derfault on commercial real estate are giving Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart the willies. He says that it is keeping him up at night.

Meanwhile, the go-go free market capital of the Arab world, Dubai, has just gotten a bailout from the United Arab Emirates following the failure of its bond offering.

Dubai has done its level best to cast itself as the banking sector of the Arab petro-states in the region, and now it looks like things are going bad there too.

Not only are there problems with bond offerings, but thousands of expats are fleeing the country, because they have lost their jobs, and under the law there, they face debtors prison.

Meanwhile, it appears that oil spiked above $40 on Friday, but it’s below $40/bbl again.

In currency, the dollar gained against both the Yen and Euro.

The Yen is down largely on concerns about declining exports will effect Japan’s export driven economy.

The concern with the Euro is that the former Warsaw Pact and Soviet States that were absorbed (too soon) in the optimism that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall are beginning to resemble Iceland, or Ireland, or Argentina.

I will be posting on Citi, and “stress testing”, later.

On The List of Middle East Commentators Who I Thought I Would Never Link to ….

No Comments

Muammar Qaddafi, yes, the Libyan colonel, writing in the IHT.

He suggest a unitary state encompassing Israel and the territories, which he dubs “Isratine”.

I disagree with him, I think that this became impossible some time in the 1990s, and that today it is as nonsensical as suggesting a reconstruction of the USSR or Yugoslavia, actually more so than suggesting the reassembly of the USSR, as that separation was mostly non-violent.

There has been too much blood spilled in the last 1½ for it to work, and the trend world wide is toward the division of countries over roughly the same period.

That being said essay is well written and reasonable, so he, and/or whoever wrote/translated it with him, did a good job.

He is remarkably genteel and diplomatic.

There is an interesting nugget here, and it says something about the Arab view of the Palestinians, he is talking about the complete return of Palestinians to the region:

Further, a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would do little to resolve the problem of refugees. Any situation that keeps the majority of Palestinians in refugee camps and does not offer a solution within the historical borders of Israel/Palestine is not a solution at all.

This reflects, in an off hand manner the fact that the Arab nations with significant Palestinian populations expect most of them to simply leave if the opportunity arises.

It’s been 60 years, and the idea that most of these people will want to leave what has been their home for all , or the overwhelming portion, of their life is unrealistic.

Even if Qaddafi’s vision were realized, you would not see quite the mass migration expected, unless we saw the institution of something rather more extreme than the “genteel ethnic cleansing” that happens to non-Francophones in Quebec and Russian speakers in the Baltic Republics.

The truth is that, with the exception of Jordan, these sorts of policies are largely in place with things like prohibitions on owning land (Lebanon) and a denial of citizenship to Palestinians by virtue of being born in country (Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and IIRC Syria, at least).

One interesting thing here is how, unrelated to his commentary, is the provision of aid and support has distorted the conflict, much as it has in Eastern Congo, where they have provided a base of operation for the remnants of the genocidal militias from Rwanda. (It’s a pet peeve of mine)

Without the UNRWA providing free ghettos, many of the Palestinians would be full citizens of these countries, because it would simply have untenable to maintain refugee camps as such for so long, and they would be leading better lives today.

Gaza

No Comments

OK, Israel has launched a large air strike on Gaza, see here, here, and here, with total reported casualties somewhere in the 225 range.

As to what the eventual death toll will be, FAIR’s report on Jenin noted that similar numbers were initially counted there, but it turned out to be 52, and the original estimates at deaths on 911 were over 6,000, when the final tally was 2974, so the final number is likely to be much lower.

Note that is not meant to minimize what happened, but to note that people who are going to simply spew what are very preliminary numbers by and imply that this constitutes reasoned arguments are ninnies.

I tend to be more hawkish on these things than my other political leanings would indicate, so here is my assessment at this point.

I do not think that this, whether or not it is followed by a ground assault, will solve anything in the long term, but it will have the effect of disrupting the chain of command of Hamas, particularly as the leadership of the organization is likely to go to ground at this point, as they have when similar strikes have been launched against them.

It does not buy peace, but it will buy somewhere between 6 and 18 months of quiet.

I disagree with the rather simplistic assessment at Worldwide War Pigs of, “Don’t like getting bombed? Clean up your act,” particularly when he invokes the rather awful Sly Stallone movie Cobra in the process.

Nothing good ever comes from evoking Sylvester Stallone, and there is no purely military solution.

By the same token, I think that Jeremy Ben-Ami, Executive Director of J-Street is wrong too, where he makes rather mealy-mouthed statements about, “Respecting Israel’s right to defend itself,” but at it’s core is the argument that this will contribute to the, “cycle of violence”, which is such a useless cliche that it borders on the moronic.

Further I disagree with Mr. Ben-Ami’s assertion that, “strong diplomatic intervention by the United States, the Quartet and allies in the region to negotiate a resumption of the ceasefire,” is essential.

The Quartet has been part of the problem, as it has distracted the principals, Israel, the PA, and Hamas, away from dealing with each other, and toward gaming their position vis-a-vis support from the 4 nations. It has taken negotiation, and made it theater.

I believe that the stage given to all parties by the Quartet serves no one except the members of the Quartet, who are allowed to pretend that they are doing something positive.

At this point, the best course is for the rest of the world disentangle themselves from this situation.

As to final status negotiations, I do not believe that Israel can achieve its goals purely through military force, and I do not believe that the Palestinians, either Hamas or the PA are currently able to negotiate in good faith, as any serious good faith negotiations would result in compromises that would delegitimatize whoever made them.

I would also note the lesson of the American Civil War, where ambiguities that were “left for later”, became the basis for conflict. Incrementalism is the enemy of a solution, not a friend.

S-300 Deliveries to Iran Confirmed

No Comments

Needless to say this represents a significant upgrade to Iran’s air defense capabilities:

One of the world’s most advanced air defense missiles, the S-300PMU1 Favorit (SA-20 Gargoyle), is designed to protect fixed sites against missile and air attacks. The system uses wheeled transporters for mobility. The Favorit system fires the 48H6E2 interceptor missile, updated with improved guidance algorithms, an improved warhead and enhanced ECCM capabilities. The system detects targets at ranges of up to 300 km and can handle up to 100 simultaneous tracks. Up to 36 interceptor missiles can engage targets simultaneously. Aircraft targets can be engaged between 3 and 200 km, and missiles can be intercepted at ranges of 5 – 40 km, and from 30 to 90,000 feet in altitude.

Against a stealthy target you could figure an engagement range in the 15 km range, based on the engagement distance being proportional to the 4th route of RCS, which means that they are not particularly effective for area defense, but for point defense of a specific target (nuclear facility) it could complicate the attack.

First a report of sale, now a report of delivery, in the space of a week and it looks like some are going to the Syrians too, though it appears to be a fixed installation geared toward protecting a Russian naval base at Tartous, and it is unclear as to whether the operators would be Russian or Syrian.

Lame-duck-inosis

No Comments

I understand that the political appointees in the State Department may wish it otherwise, but the rest of the world understands that Bush and His Evil Minions™ are lame ducks, and they want no part of any of initiatives.

Case in point, the latest IAEA runing on the Syrian nuclear program:

The U.N. atomic agency approved a contested Syrian bid for nuclear aid on Wednesday, overcoming U.S.-led resistance to the project while Damascus is under investigation for covert activity that could lead to atom bombs.

The United States, Canada and Australia mounted last minute objections to a compromise deal on the project but finally joined a consensus in favor since they could not have won if they forced a rare vote by International Atomic Energy Agency governors, diplomats in the closed meeting said.

(emphasis mine)

They matter very little now. On January 20, they do not matter at all.

Update on Syrian Nuclear Reactor

No Comments

Well, it now appears that the IAEA found traces of enriched Uranium at the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor site.

It appears that I was wrong, I figured that it was beyond their level of nuclear infrastructure to even try.

On a related note, officials at the IAEA are seriously pissed off at whoever leaked the above data, because they see it as, “an effort to prejudge the agency’s conclusions.”

Basically, it appears that the source of the contamination is not clear:

The particles retrieved from some environmental swipe samples were of processed uranium — which could include the enriched version that in large quantities would fuel power plants or bombs, not of raw uranium ore, they said.

Such traces, they said, could have been carried to the site inadvertently on scientists or workers or on equipment trucked in. Syria has one declared atomic site, a research reactor.

A remote source could resemble a finding made in a long IAEA investigation of Iran’s secretive nuclear program.

Bomb-grade uranium particles found by IAEA sleuths there were assessed to have come with used equipment obtained from Pakistan, not from any undeclared domestic production facility.

The Syrian ClusterF&%$

No Comments

Well, it now looks like there was Syrian foreknowledge and support of the raid, only they were told that it would be a snatch and grab, and it turned into a John Wayne shootout:

In the time-honoured tradition of covert US operations in the Middle East, this one seems to have gone spectacularly wrong. The Syrians, who had agreed to turn a blind eye to a supposedly quiet “snatch and grab” raid, could not keep the lid on a firefight in which so many people had died.

So it appears that they Syrians were expecting a quiet op, and they got a bunch of citizens killed in the process.

I’m sure that this will make them much more likely to support such an operation in the future.

Syria Blowback in Iraq

No Comments

Well, we now have a “senior American official” saying that the raid on the Syrian villiage was a warning to Syria.

Some warning, the Iraqi cabinet was already feeling their oats enough to make further changes to the deal, despite US threats to shut down all US operations in Iraq, military and otherwise.

No one believes them, becauseleaving is too politically crushing to Bush and His Evil Minions™.

But as a result of the raid, which was condemned by the government of Iraq, and is looking at further changes in the status of forces agreement to prevent this in the future.

Heck of a job, Condi.

US Stages Cross Border Raid into Syria

No Comments

We have reports the US launched a commando raid into Syria, and U.S. officials have confirmed the matter.

It appears that somewhere around 8 people were killed. It appears that the target was, Abu Ghadiya who was described as, “Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s “most prominent” smuggler of foreign operatives,” by US sources.

Needless to say, Syria and Iran have condemned the attack.

The analysis here seems to be that the Bush administration is doing this for two reasons, to coerce more action by the local governments against such people, and to establish a precedent for the next president to follow.

What I would worry about is someone like Cuba deciding that this precedent applying to the, and bullets flying in Miami as a result.

Georgian Fallout on Israel-Russian Relations

No Comments

Well, it looks like Israel-Russia relations are a little bit cool now, because of Israel’s arms sales to Georgia, though, as I mentioned earlier, the Israelis shut that down when they thought war was likely.

On the bright side, it appears that they will be holding talks on the middle east, which implies a continued relationship.

On the not so bright side, we have rumors of increased Russian arms sales to Syria, including the advanced long range S-300 system, though Syria has denied this.

We also have a report (Ynetnews, not sure of the quality of the source) that the US is pressuring Turkey to shut down the Israel Syria talks that it is hosting, because Syria took Russia’s side in the Russo-Georgian war.

It’s petty and stupid if true, and considering that we still have Condi Rice running state, I am therefore inclined to believe it.

Lebanon-Syria to Negotiate on Border

No Comments

It should be noted that they will not negotiate on Shebaa Farms until Israel leaves the region.

This is tantamount to a Syrian declaration that they believe it to be theirs, because if they did cede it to Lebanon, Israel would be out the next day, as there is no other reason to hold the land except as a bargaining chip in a land for peace deal with Syria.

Still, the negotiations are a promising development in the disaster that is Lebanon.