Category: Middle East

I Find this Hard to Believe

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Haaretz is reporting that the US rejected an Israeli request for military equipmment to aid with a strike on Iran, and I don’t buy it.

The reason that I don’t buy it is because Bush and His Evil Minions™ want to strike Iran, but if it’s an American strike, the political backlash is simply too uncertain.

The Bush administration would love an Israeli strike.

This is leaked information, coming either from the Bush administration, or the Olmert adminiatration.

If it’s the former, it’s a way to ratchet up pressure on Iran, if it’s the latter, it’s a leak designed to boost Kadima’s chances in the election.

McCain’s Fundraising Corruption

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Hmmmm….It appears that one of McCain’s major campaign bundlers, Harry Sargeant III, is using straw donors to funnel money to the campaign from non-US citizens in the Middle East, which is a felony.

Actually it’s two, straw donors and foreign campaign donations.

Read the article. Many of the donors don’t make much money, and many of them are not even registered to vote.

And all the contributors in the story have Arab names, which when juxtaposed with Sargeant’s statement that, “I have a lot of Arab business partners. I do a lot of business in the Middle East. I’ve got a lot of friends,” does lead one to wonder what’s going on here.

Syrian Liaison to Hezbollah Assassinated

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Reports say that Brigadier General Mohammed Suleiman was shot while at his beach villa from someone in a boat.

It should be noted that he was rather more senior, and closer to Bashir Assad than his title indicated, with reports that, “His status was even more important than that of the defense minister.”

Like Assad, he was a member of Syria’s Alawite religious minority.

An unnamed Israeli official has denied involvement.

Whoever did this had to be a very impressive shot, as a rocking boat to a head shot is a non trivial bit of marksmanship.

Talk About Rebelling Against Your Parents

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Yes, I know that the source is Wing Nut daily, but this story is just too amusing to pass up.

According to WND, Masab Yousuf, son of West Bank Hamas leader Sheik Hassan Yousef, has converted to Christianity, and has become a supporter of Israel:

“I know that I’m endangering my life and am even liable to lose my father, but I hope that he’ll understand this and that God will give him and my family patience and willingness to open their eyes to Jesus and to Christianity. Maybe one day I’ll be able to return to Palestine and to Ramallah with Jesus, in the Kingdom of God,” Masab said.

Masab said he previously aided his father with Hamas activities, but he now has affection for Israel and laments Hamas.

Well, I guess that’s how you rebel against your parents, if your parent is a rebel.

Stupid

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Israel and Hesbollah are trading a live terrorist for the body of two dead Israeli soldiers.

Sorry, but this is just a stupid swap on the Israeli’s part, and all it will lead to is more bodies being held for ransom.

If there were something else involved in the deal, it might make sense, but this is just political cowardice on the part of the Israeli cabinet, and perhaps desperation on the part of Olmert, who is facing serious corruption charges.

An Interesting Sidebar to the Israeli Bombing in Syria

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First, Israel is alleging that Syria had a deal with Iran to send some of the spent fuel back to them for Plutonium processing, and second, the raid may have been what led to the current talks.

First, it appears that the fact that Bashir Assad remained in power following the bombing gave the Israelis confidence that he was actually in control, and second, it appears that the bombing reminded the Syrians that the “gang that can’t shoot straight” show that occurred in the Lebanon war is the exception, not the rule.

Together, both articles paint an interesting picture.

Former German FM Posits Israeli Attack on Iran

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Joschka Fischer, former German Foreign Minister, is writing that he expects an Israeli military strike on Iran.

It was linked to on Nouriel Roubini’s blog, and he goes into the potential economic/political implications:

  • Oil Spiking to well over $200/bbl.
  • Iran setting their dogs loose in Iraq.
  • Hesbollah going postal in Lebanon.
  • Hamas going postal in Gaza.
  • Difficulties in transiting the Persian Gulf, which might further increase oil prices.

While I agree that these consequences are likely, I disagree with Roubini on one point though, thinks that such an attack would guarantee a McCain victory, because he believes that, “Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House.”

There are two problems, the first is that if the Israelis act after the conventions, it will be explicitly seen as meddling in US partisan politics, and the blow back later will be too intense, and the Israelis understand the ebb and flow of party politics, and the second is that $200/bbl oil would do immediate damage at the gas pump.

Further, I think that Republicans no longer have the confidence of the American people on anything including national security.

Then again, maybe I am an optimist.

Norman Finkelstein Refused Entry Into Israel

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Finkelstein, author of, The Holocaust Industry, which argues that the Jewish establishment has exploited the Holocaust for political gain, has been refused entry into Israel:

The Shin Bet said Finkelstein “is not permitted to enter Israel because of suspicions involving hostile elements in Lebanon,” and because he “did not give a full accounting to interrogators with regard to these suspicions.”

He did have contacts with Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon a few months ago , he published articles about that, so it’s inevitable that he would be questioned on entry.

As to whether he was forthcoming, we are in a he said/she said situation.

What’s Going on in Lebanon

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Well, it appears that proximate cause of this conflict boils down to two thing, control of the Beruit airport and Hezbollah’s communications system:

It has been announced by all sides that today is the first day of the civil war in Lebanon. This has been building with the steady assassination of political leaders since the conclusion of the war in 2006. Hezbollah is not happy, and all of a sudden the government of Lebanon has access to some very accurate intelligence.

It started with a tip regarding airport security and the means by which Iran was reportedly flying in military supplies to Hezbollah. It didn’t go over well with the militia when the government announced they were going to seize control of a security camera system in the Beruit airport. That was followed by the removal of the head of airport security, a member of Hezbollah.

It’s not particularly surprizing that this would lead to violence. You are talking about the supply lines and the communications network of Hezbollah, which are crucial to them tactically.

Hezbollah has now appeared to lave largely withdrawn from west Beruit, but they appear to still be aggressively confronting Walid Jumblatt’s pro government Druze forces east of the city.

Orwellian Freedom of Religion in the Secular Turkish State

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There is an interesting court case in Turkey.

The background is as follows, in 1980, following a military coup, the Turkish Junta created mandatory religion classes in the schools as a way increasing government control of religious activities.

Additionally, the government either created or gave new powers to (not clear from the article) the directorate of religious affairs in Ankara, a government agency which which appoints imams, pays their wages, and reviews the sermons they give.

You see the Orwellian bit here. The government is micro-managing religion in order to maintain the secular character of the Turkish state.

It turns out that there is a problem though, Turkey is not completely Sunni Moslem, court cases have been filed, including this one by a member of the Alevi religious minority:

A court victory by Alevi mother Hatice Kose has prompted public questions over the government’s commitment to minority religious rights.

In 2004 Kose sparked a long legal battle when she tried to exempt her son from mandatory religious classes in elementary school: these include lessons on praying in a mosque as well fasting during the holy month of Ramadan and the obligatory pilgrimage to Mecca.

“We have our own beliefs and our own culture which is not what is being taught in schools,” said Kose, who says she was ridiculed as a pupil in her religion class as a child because she didn’t know how to pray.

“I can’t accept them trying to impose a foreign religion on us.”

In February Kose won her case in the Turkish Court of Appeals, which would have forced the ministry of education to change the content of the curriculum in religious education classes earlier this month.

But the government has appealed the decision in the Kose case, as it has other cases, saying it does not have the power to alter mandatory religion classes.

“Because religion classes are protected in the constitution there is nothing that can be done right now, it is beyond our authority,” said Mustafa Oymak, a spokesman for the ministry.

There are any number of reasons to support the plaintiffs, both in terms of civil rights, and the basic fact that a wall between the state and religion is a good thing.

What is notable in this case is that the plaintiffs also appear to be admirable in their own right, which is often not the case in civil rights litigation, “Alevism stresses tolerance and respect for all and equality between the sexes.:

IDF Ramps Up Ground Forces Training

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This increase in focus in training ground forces, which accompanies an increase in the status of ground forces is not surprising.

The conclusion of the Winograd report*, which reviewed the 2006 Lebanon campaign was quite clear:

The military has abandoned the doctrine that stressed precision stand-off firepower over maneuver warfare, arguably the biggest mistake Israel made in the conflict.

It should be noted that the doctrine that they are abandoning is the central doctrine of the US military, particularly the USAF, and it is why you are seeing changes as a result of the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In fact, when one looks at the failures of the US military, at their core have been a consistent over-reliance on air power, whether USAF fast jets or slower helicopters.

*Warning, the format is some sort of mutant flash called NTXbook.

US Claims DPRK-Syria Nuclear Ties

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Sounds familiar *Cough* Iraq *Cough*? Don’t worry, we have video taped evidence, so there can be no question that…what????

Oh, we don’t have a video tape. We have a video presentation of a PowerPoint presentation, so what we have is something that is very close to Colin Powell’s infamous UN presentation (full disclosure, I know people who were involved int he technical end of the production):

A US official, requesting anonymity, told AFP: “There are still photographs of the facility as part of the video, but it’s a video presentation, like a Powerpoint presentation. It’s not a video of the facility.”

Just to remind everyone, we have no credibility on this:

Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha yesterday angrily denounced the U.S. and Israeli assertions. ‘If they show a video, remember that the U.S. went to the U.N. Security Council and displayed evidence and images about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I hope the American people will not be as gullible this time around,’ he said.

From your mouth to God’s ear.

No

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I believe that the Ken Silverstein’s analysis in Harpers Magazine, that “

The only way to reach a political settlement in the Middle East is for an American president to pressure Israel to make concessions.

” is deeply wrong.

Negotiations are an artifact of power, both current and future, and frequently neither side is completely sure of their power, particularly in the future.

By providing the realistic possibility of a deus ex machina, the intervention of the US, EU, and Russia actually make realistic negotiation less likely, because at their core, negotiations are an artifact of power, and by adding an external pressures, you distort the positions held by the principals.

One need only look at the “mediation” performed by Thabo Mbeki in Zimbabwe to see the downside of this.

Because the Palestinians and Israelis expect an external intervention, any, “last best offer” is likely to demand far more than they would otherwise, because both sides expect that a “road map” will favor the Palestinians, so an Israeli keep concessions in their back pocket, because they expect that they will be pushed beyond their final offer, and the Palestinians keep concessions in their back pocket for the same reason.

Certainly, the US (and EU, and Russia) can in some manner or another take upon themselves to act as guarantors of a final status agreement (a peacekeeping/border force, economic aid for an eventual Palestinian state, etc.), but when you have two negotiating that have an expectation of significant external intervention, it interferes with the basic function of negotiations.

I would also note that Carter’s trip comes exactly the wrong time. With 9 months left in the Bush regime, and the rest of the world considering Bush and His Evil Minions™ both disastrously incompetent and bellicose, nothing is going to move, because both sides in this dispute cannot see his successor as being any worse.