Because of developments in Iranian missile defense capability, the IDF commissioned Rafael to develop an improved (relatively) low cost target for testing missile defense systems, the Blue Sparrow missile warhead simulator.
Well, it now appears taht the the US Missile Defense Agency has expressed interest in the target, and may procure the target.
A decision is expected around 2010.
It looks like he is taking some steps backward from his suggestion that he would install missiles in Kaliningrad.
The question is whether this is a change in direction, or merely tactics.
It’s not surprising that the Russians consider this a direct threat.
It’s also not surprising that they consider the expansion of NATO a direct threat.
Their worst case scenario is, “What would have happened if Georgia had been a NATO member?”
There are people in positions of power, or one election away from a position of power, in many of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact nations who would be inclined to be just as crazy as Georgian President Saakaskvili, only when they launch an assault on an unarmed populace that is inclined toward the Russians.
The Russians legitimately see the BMD system in Poland as a threat, and they are taking what they see as appropriate action. (See also here)
This was foreseeable. It’s natural for the Russians to see the system as a direct challenge, particularly since the location of the interceptors and radar are better more suited to protecting Europe from Russia than from Iran, which is the putative reason for the installation in the first place.
It’s also a challenge to Obama, which complicates things, because it makes it harder for him to do the smart thing, which is to relocate the installation further south or cancel it completely.
It looks like the missile defense agency will see at least $1 billion cut from the budget request for the next fiscal year.
The source for the $1b figure is a staffer on the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee who is a friend of ‘Star Wars’. There are indications that the Congress may go for even bigger cuts.
Even with a fairly abysmal test record, the Missile Defense Agency is planning to start testing on the Kinetic-Energy Interceptor (KEI) upgrade to the system. (paid subscription required)
It’s supposed to be able to intercept the missile bus before it dispenses warheads and decoys
….It’s also supposed to back up your hard drive, and keep your daughter from dating the guy with the pierced tongue.
It looks like Lockheed-Martin Missiles and Fire Control* and the Missile Defense Agency are looking at testing an upgrade to the PAC-3 Patriot SAM in 2009. (paid subscription required)
It looks like the sensor for the hit-to-kill weapon will be much the same as its predecessor, but that range will be doubled and effective altitude increased by a larger diameter motor with a two pulse motor, giving generally improved kinematics.
To do this, they will put the missile in a PAC-2 cannister, the PAC-3 fits 4 missiles in the space of a PAC-2 now, and use folding fins for greater volumetric efficiency, and LM is hopingto be competitive in naval applications too.
*Full Disclosure, in 1999-2000 and 1996-1998, I worked as a mechanical engineer for what is now Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, and I have some claim to actually being a rocket scientist.†
†Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.
Well, it appears that the good folks in the ABM program are looking at space based interceptors again, which presents some interesting arms control and proliferation issues.
Well, it’s beginning to look like the west is finally catching up to the former Soviet Union in solid fuel ramjet technology, with the British working on their Meteor, and the US looking at adding the technology to the HARM anti-radiation missile (it homes in on SAM radars).
Note that the Soviets had fielded the SA-6 “Gainful” with this technology starting in the late 1960s, and had been sufficiently confident in the technology that it was extensively exported to Egypt and Syria in time for the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
The picture is of a test launch of a missile with an AGM-88E HARM guidance system and a integral rocket ramjet (IRR) propulsion system launched at White Sands in August.
What is in advance of the system deployed by the Soviets in the late 1960s is that the booster does not have a separate nozzle, and the thrust can be throttled, which would allow the missile to loiter in the area waiting for an emitter to switch on.
And they are now saying that Congress must fund the missiles in Poland and the radar in the Czech Republic to protect from Russia.
As I’ve said before, the purpose of the missile system is to antagonize the the Russians, for partisan political gain….And now they are admitting it.
Is that if it’s a joint program with the Europeans, then the Department of Defense will screw around with it, and try to kill it. (paid subscription required)
Case in point is MEADS, which packages an improved Patriot PAC-3 missile with extensive European involvement, and now the Pentagon wants to reorganize the program. (paid subscription required)
I kind of knew the program was doomed when I worked a (very little) bit on in in 1998. Jointness is the kiss of death for the Pentagon.
About 2 weeks ago, I wrote about Israel getting an advanced X-band radar to aid in their missile defense efforts.
Well in a turn that could have come out of The Onion, it appears that if the radar is installed, it Israeli personnel will not be allowed on the premises, which would mean that foreign troops would be based in Israel, a reversal of long held policy.
Damn.
Stupid policy, and now that misbegotten military of that whack job in Georgia has scared Poland into going along.
The Raytheon built radar is intended for missile defense, and is rumored to be able to, “Detect a baseball at 2,900 miles”.
It should give Israel about twice the warning in the event of an Iranian missile launch at them, as it exceeds the stated performance of their Green Pine radar developed for the Arrow missile.
They are looking at basing missiles and bombers in Belarus the anti-missile installation in Poland.
It’s not surprising. As I’ve said before, the location is better at shooting down Russian missiles, than it is for shooting down Iranian missiles, which is the stated purpose.
It appears to me that there is a policy by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to antagonize Russia in the hopes of recreating a cold war, which might favor Republicans electorally.
Specifically, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
There are now rumors that Russia may start basing nuclear capable bombers in Cuba in response to the US installing an ABM system in Europe directed at them (let’s be honest, if it were actually aimed at the Iranians, as claimed, it would be further south, to give coverage to Turkey and Italy).
General Norton Schwartz, the nominee for Air Force chief of staff, said, “I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line, for the United States of America.“
I agree….as does the expansion of NATO eastward, and a the European missile defense system crosses a red line for the Russians.
Russian political culture is not driven by a need to engage in the world. Russian political culture is driven by a paranoia about the world, and we seem to be taking steps guaranteed to stoke their paranoia.
It’s almost as if someone wanted to recreate the Cold War for political gain.
Well, the Czechs have signed a deal with the US to install an ABM radar which is clearly directed at least as much at the Russia as at Iran, and they are shocked to discover that there are problems with oil deliveries:
Shipments to Czech oil refineries through the Druzhba pipeline, which ties Siberian fields to the Czech Republic, are declining, the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade said. It did not say by how much.
You sign off on a policy that is pretty explicitly threaten Russia, and you are surprised when they retaliate?
What planet are you on?
The US and Czech Republic have signed a deal over the ABM radar, and the Russians are suggesting that they, “will be forced to react not in a diplomatic fashion but with military-technical means.”
This is a polite way of saying that nuclear weapons will be targeted at the Czech Republic, likely in a launch on warning stature.
The Czech people overwhelmingly oppose this, so one wonders if this will last past the Bush regime, particularly if the Russians bring natural gas shipments into the mix.
In a related note, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski talked with both McCain and Obama, and the sick old man is gave assurances that the program would progress under him, but Obama refused to say anything.
The fact is that the Russians are right. This missile base is being located in a place spectacularly ill suited to defend against Iran.
The only way that the sites could be located any further from Iran is if they were in the Baltic states.
Were the missile sights located in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, or Turkey, it would provide better protection from an Iranian strike.
What this is about is the desire by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to recreate the evil Russian empire for electoral benefit, and, for Condi Rice specifically, to recreate relevance in her area of expertise.
Well it appears that the Polish have rejected the Bush Administration’s missile defense deal, saying that they, “have not reached a satisfactory result on the issue of increasing the level of Polish security.”
Essentially, I think that they realize that the potential damage to their relationship is not worth what the US is offering, and they believe that any US good will from accepting will expire when Bush and His Evil Minions™ leave office.
When the Poles recognize Bush’s lame duckitude, it’s game over.
*I am not minimizing Polish intellect. It’s merely that they are currently the most vociferous knee jerk supporters of the US in Europe right now.
Yep, with 6½ months to go in the Bush regime, it appears that Poland may have completed an agreement to place a US ABM system in their country.
As I’ve said before, it’s diplomatically disastrous and it’s poorly located to deal with the stated threat, Iran.
Bush and His Evil Minions™ want the missile site there because they want a hostile and threating Russia, because they feel that it benefits them politically.