Category: Missile Defense

New Israeli Anti-Kassam Missile System

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The system is called David’s Sling (paid subscription required), and it makes no sense at all.

The system’s features:

  • A “Stunner” interceptor missile, with two stages and a 3 pulse motor for the interceptor.
  • David’s sling has it’s own radar.
  • Stunner has two seekers, a radar and an infrared seeker for terminal homing (see funky nose profile below)
  • Potential integration with Rafael’s Spyder air defense system.
  • A maximum range from 180 to 300 km.
  • A blast-fragmentation warhead.
  • Detection to intercept of 38 seconds.

So, you’ve got a missile that weighs somewhere north of 500 pounds (bottom pic for scale), and will probably cost something well north of $¼ million a piece, and they will use it to intercept Kassams and Katyushas that cost something less than $100 and $1000 each respectively.

That’s sounds like a really good trade….not.

India Working on BMD System

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They are looking at a two tiered system, and have some demonstration vehicles for their missile defense system.

The two tiered system mirrors that of the US Safeguard system of the late 1960s, and has me wondering if their system, like Safeguard, uses nuclear warheads.

In Safeguard, the upper tier had an exoatmospheric interceptor, Spartan, with a megaton sized warhead that killed thermally, and an endoatmospheric interceptor, Sprint, with a kiloton sized warhead that killed through neutron pulse.

In either case, they have purchased Israeli phased array radars for the system, along with Raytheon and Lockheed, and there is either some Russian involvement, or an extensive marketing effort by the Russians to get their foot in the door.


US Talking With Lithuania About Missile Interceptor Location

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It appears that because the Poles are getting cold feet, or demanding more for the base, they are talking with Lithuania about locating the missiles there.

This means a number of things:

  1. The relatively new Polish government is not being as cooperative as they would like.
  2. That most other nations are not interested (the Lithuanians really hate the Russians)
  3. That this missile defense installation is directed against the Russians, and not the Iranians.

The last point is simple: If you have a sub optimal location, one that is too far north to protect parts of Turkey, Greece, and Italy, starting negotiations with a country that is further north, and hence less well suited to intercepting Iranian missiles, but just as well suited to intercepting a Russian strike.

What is going on is simple: This is Republicans trying to recreate the cold war, because it benefits them politically.

Missile Defense Agency Cancels Test

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Same old same old, behind schedule and over budget.

Taking tests out of the schedule though is not a good way to handle that problem. Insufficient testing means that we might field a system that does not work…Then again, maybe Bush and His Evil Minions™ don’t care if it works, and they just want a system fielded.

It would go along with the Republicans’ general policy of “faith based missile defense”

South Africa and Brazil Enter Joint Development for A-Darter Missile

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South Africa has been working on this missile for some time, and the jount development agreement should bring some more resources to the project.

It’s clearly been delayed a bit, as the SAAF has purchased German IRIS-T missiles as an interim fit.

The A-Darter is a short range IR guided air to air missile, and appears rather similar to the British ASRAAM, with no forward wings, though it has thrust vector vanes in the exhaust, implying a bit more agility off the rail:

This would also imply a dual thrust motor, with low thrust in the first second or so, so as to allow for optimum operation of the thrust vector paddles.

US Missile Defense Agency Solicits Bids for Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV)

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The MDA is looking about upgrading its interceptors to handle a missile penetrating with decoys and other penetrating aids.

While this technology sounds difficult and complex, basically it’s just this:

Aluminum coated mylar balloons. What’s more, it’s entirely possible to put the warhead inside balloon, as was stated by a WMD experts years ago (can’t dig up the link, I think that he was from MIT).

Lockheed and Raytheon are competing for the contract. (Paid subscription required) They are taking two different design approaches.

Raytheon is developing multiple vehicles that are largely autonomous, and the number can be therefore be taylored to the size of the payload bay, with the first vehicle ejected serving to direct the others:

Lockheed has a “bandoleer” of smaller interceptors grouped around a central “mother ship”, which, while less flexible as to payload size, allows for a better sensor, and more maneuverability, for the initial contact and tracking with the kill vehicles being dispensed relatively closer to the interception point:

According to this article(paid subscription required), Lockheed’s sensor on the carrier will have 4x the resolution, 512×512 pixel staring array, as versus Raytheon’s 256×256 staring array.

Of course, these things look to cost a few hundred thousand bucks a pop, and I can get a silver mylar balloon for a buck fifty from the party store.

House Armed Services Committee Votes to Cut European Missile Defense Program

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The HASC has voted to cut $220 million from the Bush administration’s request for their European missile defense program, which would place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, and the radar in the Czech Republic.

I think that this is less about the program in and of itself, and more about the diplomatic consequences of proceeding, particularly because it would allow a lame duck to tie his successor’s hands on this contentious issue:

Democrats argued that the European missile plan should not be rushed. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, a Democrat from South Carolina, says the program would divert funds from other U.S. defense needs, and possibly tie the hands of a new president.

“What we need to strike here is a balance, enough of a commitment to the project to let the Poles and Czechs know that we are not backing down on them, that the thing is still there it is still viable, still in the works, yet not so much commitment at this point that the next president, whoever he or she may be, does not have the flexibility to review this commitment,” Spratt said.

This has always been a dubious plan, as it does not cover much of the southern tier of NATO, and I believe that is more driven towards making Russia paranoid and hostile toward the US, because the Republicans believe that a new Cold War benefits them electorally.

The Senate voted to fully fund the program, so it will have to be resolved in conference committee.

A Good Commentary on Russia

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Boston Globe columnist James Carroll looks at what might be driving Russia’s hostility to recent NATO actions, and comes to the conlusion that it’s completely justified:

  • The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact was accompanied by a buildup of NATO.
  • Mikhail Gorbachev was assured that if the USSR accepted the reunified Germany’s presence in NATO, there would be no further eastern expansion of the alliance.

Carroll quotes George Kennan describing NATO expansion as, “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.”

The list of countries that have invaded Russia in the past few hundred years includes, “Poland, the Ottoman Empire, Sweden, Austria, France, Great Britain, and Germany”, though he leaves off the US’s direct military participation in White Russian revolts of the 1920s.

I would argue that Carroll does not go far enough.

If one looks at the Hart-Rudman Commission of the late 1990s looking at coming threats to America, and the behavior of Lynne Cheney, who continuously called for an immediate military strike on China, and resigned when she was created like a crazy aunt by everyone else, inclucing other Republicans, and juxtaposes it with the report that Francis Fukuyama said that “There was actually a deliberate search for an enemy because they felt that the Republican Party didn’t do as well“, I think that this is actually a deliberate strategy.

The Republican party needs an external enemy to succeed, and that this actions taken recently, particularly the missile shield, are part of a deliberate attempt to recreate the Cold War for partisan political gain.

Reasons for Intercepting Crippled Satellite Do Not Hold UP

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We are now getting skeptical reports from media sources, such as BBC News and Wired that the administrations justifications for shooting down the dead surveillance satellite are a 6 pounds of fertilizer in a 5 pound bag.

The justification is that it carries 400 l of UDMH (unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine) fuel for maneuvering is a threat to life and limb.

The fact is that UDMH is about as benign a propellant as is used in rocketry (it’s still nasty), and the effected area would be on the order of two football fields, but that is only for irritant, not life threatening effects.

One explanation is that the, “MDA [Missile Defense Agency] is always looking for ways to pimp their systems”, and another is that this is actually an anti-satellite (ASAT) test in response to the Chinese test last year.

My guess is a combination of both, and that Bush and His Evil Minions&trade intend to create an arms race in this area, so as to further constrain a future administration.

Poland Delaying on Missile Defense Deal

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I think that the Polish government realizes that whoever comes in after Bush is likely to want to take US foreign policy in a different direction, and will likely drop the provocative installation of an ABM site in Poland and the Czech Republic, leaving them high and dry, so the delay in the missile defense pact announced by the Polish defense minister is a way to kick the football down the road to the next administration.

The translation from bureaucrat-speak is, “Sod off you short-timer incompetent prats.”

OK, It’s Official, I am a Purveyor of Weapons of Mass Destruction

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Many years ago, around the turn of the millennium, I worked at Loral Vought Systems…..Lockheed Martin Vought Systems…..Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control* in Grand Prairie, TX.

One of the items that I worked on was the Medium Extended Air Defense System, or MEADS.
I’ve also worked on the Armies ongoing but truly misbegotten Future Combat System† (FCS), it’s largest procurement program.

So now, I’m beginning to see just how tied into the Military Industrial Complex I am.

Maybe I should ditch engineering and become a Klezmer‡.

Yes, I worked on this, and that little flare behind the head is for additional volume for the motor to increase range. The original PAC-3 had straight sides.

It looks like they are still using ProEngineer™ as the CAD package. After a while, you can kind of get a sense of which cad packate it is from how it renders.

Yep, worked on this too, looking at a more flexible launch cannister than the PAC-3 launch cannister.

Worked on most of these too.

Worst place I ever worked. It was so bad that people who never worked at Stewart & Stevenson, Tactical Vehicle Systems would hang up when they heard Sealy, TX.

Made Dilbert™ and his workplace look like “Nerdvana”.

They ended up screwing up in reverse. Their final drawing package was bad enough that no one else wants to bid on FMTV contracts, because they can’t make heads or tails of the drawings.

*It was all the same place, it just went through one merger, and two name changes.
†Note to self, need to finish article about FCS for my blog. It’s been sitting in my draft folder for months.
‡An itinerant Jewish musician, more specifically, one who plays music typical of Eastern European Jews.

Poland Worries About Being Left Holding the Bag on the “Missile Shield”

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I think that the new government in Poland realizes that George W. Bush does not stand up for his allies, and his successor will be unlikely to stand up for George W. Bush’s allies, so they are special military treaty ahead of negotiations on a US missile shield in Europe, such as the ones with Turkey and Italy.

For Poland, “The worst scenario is a situation in which Poland would agree to the shield, will incur the political costs and then the base is not built, because of a change of government in the United States”.

They are afraid of being left holding the bag.

With a year left in the reign of the Avignon President, it’s a sensible concern.

Adventures in Bad Desense Technology Reporting

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I’ve seen the story all over the net about successful Russian test launch of the RSM-54, or Sineva from the Tula, Delta IV class submarine earlier this month.

There was much talk about it was a “hybrid ballistic missile that in its final stages becomes a modified cruise missile” is actually a bit of a misnomer.

…., is a hybrid ballistic missile that in its final stages becomes a modified cruise missile. In this guise, the warhead cannot be targeted by anti-missile systems that rely on a ballistic trajectory for their calculations.

This is a misnomer. What we have is called a “MARV”, MAneuverable Reentry Vehicle, and it is fairly old news.

The Pershing II which actually reached deployment in the 1980s in Europe before being retired under the INF treaty had such a system, though not for ABM evasion, they coupled it with a terminal radar for a CEP under 30 meters.

For a strategic system it would likely be used for evasion, and there are reports of it being used on the Trident reentry vehicles.

You can see see the aerodynamic surfaces, and the radome on this picture of a Pershing II launch from Wiki.

Russian Head of Nuclear Forces Says Retargeting Europe Under Consideration

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Remember when I mentioned that Obama’s Senate subcommittee never met? It was the Foreign Relations’ Subcommittee on Europe.

It might look at things like, I don’t know, the fact that the Russians are threatening to retarget Europe over the US Missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

General Nikolai Solovtsov, head of strategic missile forces says that Russia might just do this if the installation is seen to, “undermine the Russian nuclear deterrent capability”.

Just because it doesn’t get a whole bunch of press doesn’t mean that it isn’t important work. John Kerry, in a similar position, was instrumental in breaking open the criminal terrorist money laundering operation known as BCCI.

Russia Threatens to Ditch INF Treaty

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As a result of a breakdown in diplomatic relations between Russia and the US, Russia is threatening to leave the INF missile treaty.

Not a big surprise, you locate a missile defense site that is clearly targeted against Russia, and they don’t trust us. Go figure.

The original treaty only happened because we had missiles in Europe that could hit their homeland. This time, if the Russians do breakout from the treaty, there will be no US Pershings of Tomohawks. Public opinion in Europe will not allow it.

Putin knows the score, and as Lowermanhattanite says at the group news blog, never confuse a poseur (Bush, Cheney, Rice) with the real gangsta (Putin, former KGB, Clinton called him the “Coldest SOB I’ve ever Met”).

Missile Defense: Cut Twice, Measure Never???

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This is an interesting take on US Missile defense development. Basically, it appears that in order to show capability, even on tightly scripted tests, they rely on the capabilities of each subsystem as determined analytically, as opposed to testing, or just analyzing, the full up system.

This is faith-based missile defense:

To justify the deployment of untested technologies, officials at the Missile Defense Agency changed the fundamental epistemology of weapons procurement. In bureaucratic-speak, they ceased following a “knowledge-based” system and relied instead upon what they called a “capability-based” standard. In simple terms, it’s the difference between knowing that something works because you’ve tested it, and believing that something works because all the parts, when put together, should be capable of working. It’s the difference between test-driving a car before mass-producing it, and building one from a schematic but deciding not to turn the key for the first time until there’s an emergency. It’s the difference between the old carpenter’s advice of “measure twice, cut once,” and the new, Rumsfeldian directive: “Cut already.”

In the old knowledge-based days, procurement was based more or less on common sense: Contractors developed a weapons system that showed promise, gradually trying it out in more and more realistic situations. Once progress warranted it, the Pentagon took over and performed “realistic operational testing” under conditions that simulated battle — rain, heat, sandstorms. But now, under Rumsfeld’s “capability-based” standard, entire weapons systems can be built without bothering to see if they will work in the real world.

The depressing thing is that I favor some sort of ABM system for defense of the US, albeit my favored scheme is rather Strangelovian, or Telleresque.

I favor a system modeled on the SAFEGUARD system, which was operational for a few months in the 1970s. It uses nuclear tipped interceptors, which ameliorates most of the targeting and decoy issues.

Use of a Megaton range warhead in an exoatmospheric increases the miss distance, and it handles most of the problems with decoys, because everything is in the effect range. For terminal defense, you use something in the kiloton range with a neutron kill.

Obviously, this can’t work with tactical systems, since the authorization for use of nuclear weapons would have to come from the President, but for strategic defense of te country, it’s a better system that could be online sooner.