Category: Polls

Democratic Senate Primary Poll Update

No Comments

These are obviously daily tracking polls, and only reflect last night’s sentiment, so they are just snap shot.

Arlen Specter is tied with Joe Sestak at 43%, which cannot be good for Specter.

Lincoln seems to be in better shape. She is leading Bill Halter by 44% to 32%, which, if you use the rule of thumb that undecideds go 2:1 to the challenger, has her winning by 52%-48%, though it is still close.

Both primaries are on May 18, so I expect these numbers to move over the next 11 days.

I’m rooting against both incumbents.

Sestak-Specter Primary Battle Closes

No Comments
Date 5/2 5/3 5/4
Arlen Specter 48% 49% 46%
Joe Sestak 40% 40% 42%
Undecided 12% 11% 12%

The latest tracking polls have the Arlen Specter Joe Sestak primary race too close to call.

If you use the rule of thumb that undecideds break against the incumbent by 2:1, Specter still appears to have the advantage, but it is a lot closer than it was a last, when Specter had a 20+% lead, 53%-32%.

I would be surprised if Specter wins by more than 3% when the primary is held in 2 weeks.

Note that the polls here describe Specter’s popularity among Democrats, and he is severely damaged goods, so the general, against the antediluvian Pat Toomey, he will have a very tough road to hoe.

Basically, he switched parties because he wants to stay a senator, and everyone knows it, and it’s unseemly, and no one trusts him, though the Senate Incumbent Protection Program Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) is spending heavily on advertisements in his behalf.

This is yet another reason why I implore my readers not to give to the DSCC the DCCC, or the DNC (Post Dean): they are first and foremost an incumbent protection program.

I Think That This Is Misleading

No Comments

So, Gallup has a poll, which reveals a much higher level of support for regulating “Wall Street” than it does for regulating “Big Banks”.

The net goes from +3% to +14% thus “showing” that regulating Wall Street is much more popular.

The thing is, the delta for “In Favor” is only +4%, and the delta for “No Opinion” is only +3%, and, “Qne can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.”

So, we can say that while the drop in opposition -7% is significant, but the other ones are within the margin of error, though the sample size is ½ that of the full survey, and I am not sure that it effects the MOE.

If you want to argue that this points to a good frame to use on the argument for reform, feel free.

There is a measurable improvement in the polling by using “Wall Street”, but the change in terminology is not a silver bullet to Mitch McConnell’s filibuster werewolf.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?!?!? The Lib-Dems?

No Comments

So, following the first televised debate between candidates for Prime Minister in UK history, a confrontation where Liberal-Democrat candidate is generally conceded to have come off best, the party is leading in a number of polls.

Part of the allure of the Lib-Dems is that their policies are objectively, and quite justifiably, punitive towards the banks that created this mess, and they are explicit about the need to downsize the banking sector.

I don’t think that the Lib-Dems will win, there is 100 years of their predecessor of losing elections, and I think that the nature of the constituencies, which are elected in “first past the post” as in the US, make their capturing even 2nd place in the number of seats unlikely.

Still, with 3 weeks to go before the election, it is a surprising development.

Least Shocking News of the Day

No Comments

According to polls, the American public thinks that Wall Street and the big banks are evil and they want them flayed and staked to anthills:

Most people interviewed in the Bloomberg National Poll say they don’t like Wall Street, banks or insurance companies and favor letting the government punish bankers who helped cause the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

OK, so maybe I exaggerate a bit, but it has the ring of truthiness, and they did not ask about flaying or anthills in the poll.

Even less shocking is the response of the banks to the news of these attitudes, a brand new PR campaign:

One of Wall Street’s main lobbying groups is starting an image-improvement campaign aimed at showing the financial industry as trustworthy and a positive force after more than a year of being chastised in Washington.

You know, if you stopped making your goal f%$#ing the ordinary American, people might like you more.

OK, This is Weird

No Comments

I’m a big fan of Alan Grayson, the Democratic Congressman from Florida’s 8th district; he is intelligent, fearless, and takes moral stands that resonate with the voters.

Needless to say, the Republicans want him gone, and they are looking to take him down in what is a fairly closely divided district.

Well, they may find this difficult, because the latest poll shows Alan Grayson beating all challengers in the Republican primary:

Republicans like a politician who stands up for what he believes — even if he believes the Republican Party is populated by a bunch of “knuckle-dragging Neanderthals.”

The candidate leading the Florida GOP primary to determine who will take on Rep. Alan Grayson, the Democrat who represents the Orlando-based district, is none other than Grayson himself, according to a poll paid for by his campaign. Grayson is a freshman congressman who has drawn scorn from the GOP and has quickly built a nationwide following of progressives.

The poll has Grayson leading the 13 Republicans — among Republicans — with 27.8 percent of the vote. The congressman who mocked the GOP health care plan by saying that it amounts to telling people not to get sick and if they do, to die quickly, received more support than all of the Republican candidates combined.

I have always said that American voters respect a politician who says what he thinks, even if he says that he thinks that you are a c%$#sucker, and here we have documentary evidence.

Better to be Lucky than Good

2 Comments

Harry Reid (D-NV) is polling almost as badly as Blanche Lincoln, but it appears that hi might win because a Tea-Bagger candidate will split the anti-Harry vote:

The race is expected to include at least one Tea Party candidate, Las Vegas business leader Scott Ashjian. And there’s evidence in the Mason-Dixon poll that Reid would benefit, should Ashjian become a serious third candidate in the race (which is a big if). The pollster pitted Reid against a nameless Republican and a nameless Tea Party candidate in a hypothetical matchup. Asked how they’d vote, Nevadans gave Reid a slight edge in three-way race. Reid got 36% of the vote, the GOP candidate 32% and the Tea Party candidate 18%.

I figure that Reid will pick up a few percent on the way to November, and that the Tea-Bagger will fall in the polls, so it gets interesting.

The Massachusetts Senate Race Just Got Weird

No Comments

The normal part is a Boston Globe poll that has Democratic candidate Martha Coakley holding a solid 15 point lead over Republican Scott Brown, which is unsurprising in this solidly blue state, but Public Policy Polling shows Brown with a 1 point lead, indicating that the real issue here is whether or not the Democrats can mobilize a thoroughly demoralized base.

The difference here has to be the criteria for likely voters.

That’s a bit odd, but the fact that Scott Brown Posed Nude in Cosmopolitan Magazine in 1982. (Pics are at the link, I don’t post Republican pron.)

It will be a bad thing of Coakley loses, though it would be a good wake up call the people who are busy sucking up to bankers and insurance companies.

Harry Reid: Dead Meat on the Table

No Comments

Harry Reid has hit a new low in the latest Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, with a 52% having an unfavorable view of him, and 33% having a favorable view of him.

As an incumbent, polling below 50% in terms of how people vote is a near death sentence, when your unfavorable rating is over 1½ times your favorable rating, you are in Dick Cheney territory.

The problem is not what he has done, but what he hasn’t done.

Notwithstanding the arcane rules of the Senate, his constituents expect him to kick ass and get things done, and he hasn’t. He’s been a wimp, though I think that this was largely at the request of the Obama administration, which wanted insurance company and pharma support for something called healthcare.

So, now he’s screwed, and won’t be a Senator in February of 1011, just like Chris Dodd, who got shafted by Obama and His Evil Minions™ in almost exactly the same way.

If the poll numbers weren’t bad enough, the merry band of at Politico have released a book, Game Change, in which they have the following quote from Harry Reid:

He was wowed by Obama’s oratorical gifts and believed that the country was ready to embrace a black presidential candidate, especially one such as Obama — a “light-skinned” African American “with no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one,” as he said privately. Reid was convinced, in fact, that Obama’s race would help him more than hurt him in a bid for the Democratic nomination.

(emphasis mine)

So now we have a quote, an accurate one since Reid has apologized for it, where he sounds like a country club racist.

Reid needs to announce his retirement, tomorrow.

Big Surprise

No Comments

The Conference Board’s survey of US job satisfaction hit an all time low. 45%, the lowest number since the survey began in 1987.

There is some surprise that, even as workplace safety and things like vacation days have increased, this number had trended downward:

“[That] could spell trouble for the overall engagement of U.S. employees and ultimately employee productivity,” she [Lynn Franco, director of the Consumer Research Center of The Conference Board] added.

The report notes that job satisfaction has steadily declined over the years despite big improvements in the work environment, such as a reduction of workplace hazards and an increase in vacation days.

Simply put, we are at the point where the fetishism of management for screwing with their workers may start hitting the bottom line.

This is basic primate behavior: People know that that upper management’s wages have gone up by more than 10 times, while their wages have stagnated.

The National Geographic noted this over 15 years ago:

Monkeys Show Sense Of Fairness, Study Says
Sean Markey
National Geographic News
September 17, 2003

If you expect equal pay for equal work, you’re not the only species to have a sense of fair play. Blame evolution.

Researchers studying brown capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) have found that the highly social, cooperative species native to South America show a sense of fairness, the first time such behavior has been documented in a species other than humans.

The question of whether human aversion to unfair treatment—now shown by other primates—is an evolved behavior or the result of the cultural influence of large social institutions like religion, governments, and schools, in the case of humans, has intrigued scientists in recent years.

The new finding suggests evolution may have something to do with it. It also highlights questions about the economic and evolutionary nature of cooperation and its relationship to a species’ sense of fairness, while adding yet another chapter to our understanding of primates.

……………

First Massachusetts Senate Special Election Poll Out

No Comments

It’s Rasmussen, and they say that Democrat candidate Martha Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by 50% to 41%.

Not particularly surprising.

Obviously special elections are rather quirky affairs, what with turnout being low, but Coakley’s turnout machine worked well in the primary, so I think that this is, absent her doing something really stupid, is in the bag.

There is an interesting point here though: If Brown were to win, the Dems would be down to 59 seats, and the Republican filibuster would hold, which might force the White House and Congress to use reconciliation, which might create a much better bill.

So, which is it, The Lady or the Tiger?

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size

New Home Sales Not Just Ugly, but Fugly!
h/t Calculated Risk

Yesterday, I noted the jump in existing home sales, and posited that this was almost entirely due to people rushing to get in under the wire on the new home buyer house credit, well today, we have the new home sales numbers, and they plunged by 11.3%, which validates my thesis.

Basically, existing home sales numbers are recorded at closing, while new home sales are recorded when the contract is signed, which means that the new home sales numbers lead existing home sales by 30-60 days, so we have a snapshot of what happens when people rushing to secure a tax credit stop rushing, and it ain’t pretty.

It also explains why home mortgage application volume fell.

As I’ve said before, real estate won’t lead us out of a recession, it will follow.

On the other hand, personal income and spending rose in November, which is a sign of improvement, and the latest CNN/Opinion Research and Reuters/University of Michigan surveys show an improvement in consumer sentiment, though of the “slightly less suckage” rather than the “going well” variety..

One interesting development in the 3rd quarter of this year was that central banks have cut purchases of dollars for reserves to a record low, “30 percent of new foreign-exchange reserves,” which implies a slow walk away from the dollar by central banks.

Even so, the dollar rose today, and Oil also rose on a surprise drop in inventories………Which raises the question, why are inventories always surprising folks?

Obama Poll Numbers Tank

No Comments

The Taxpayer Always Finishes Last

So, we have a poll out from Wall Street Journal/NBC News, and it shows that Barack Obama’s approval numbers are below 50%:, which makes it the “the steepest first year decline in modern history.

And Henry Blodget, of all people, along with Aaron Task, notes the problem, it’s that the bankers insurance companies, pharma, and the rest of the special interests have a seat at the table, while the taxpayer does not.

Basically, it comes down to cowardice. People expect a president to fight for things, even if he loses, and not to point the finger at Congress, particularly when his own party controls the legislature.

So, we now have a huge give away to the insurance companies and pharma, and the American public realizes that they will be taxed, and that this money will be given to insurance companies, and they wonder who he is really working for.

I wonder too.

We Luv Torture

No Comments

Glenn Greenwald points us to a Pew Research Center survey that shows that the citizens of the United States are the most supportive of torture of any of the nationalities tested.

We are, therefore, a bunch of cowardly sadists, and maybe Liberace was right, and I should make aliyah to Israel.

I do know that I am thoroughly disgusted at this, and I think that people are missing something: When these reservists and national guardsman come home, some of them will be in law enforcement, and they will bring torture with them.

Expect your next traffic stop to come with stress positions.

What a Surprise

No Comments

Barack Obama has spent the past 9 months doubling back on promises and dissing the base voters, sucking up to banks and the pro-torture wing of the CIA, and doing nothing for those young voters who came out for him and now need jobs, and now we have a poll showing that his most stalwart supporters may stay home in 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Actually, these results are not shocking at all. Barack Obama and His Evil Minions™ have been scapegoating and ignoring his base ever since his election, so it’s no wonder that they are demoralized, so 2 out of 5 activists need to wash their hair today

Steve Singiser’s conclusion, “This enormous enthusiasm gap, as well as some polling analysis done by PPP (and analyzed well here by Nate Silver), seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats,” is actually rather weak tea.

While it’s clear that if voters are forced to pay insurance companies, and get nothing in return, they staying home or be voting for the crazy muthaf%$#as in the corner, it is also true that between the continuation of military tribunals, soft pedaling DADT and DOMA repeal, escalation in Afghanistan, etc. there is a lot going on to demoralize the base.

Polls

No Comments

Bummer of a birth mark, Governor Paterson

A Couple of updates, one completely predictable that New York Governor David Paterson is polling behind everyone. He trails Andrew Cuomo by 75% to 16%, which makes him less polular amongst New York Democrats, and in the general election he trails Giuliani by 33% to 56% (Cuomo trounces Giuliani by 53%-41%), and Rick Lazio by 39% to 42% (Cuomo crushes him 67%-22%).

Give it up dude. People find you incompetent, uninspiring, craven, and stupid, and no amount of political organization, fund raising, and advertisements will change this, because you are incompetent, uninspiring, craven, and stupid.

A surprise in another poll, the Delaware Senate race, where Beau Biden(D)/Mike Castle(R) race has gone from 55%-34% in Castle’s favor in April to 45%-40% in Biden’s favor.

Admittedly, it’s been 7 months between polls, but Beau Biden (Joe’s kid), has not formally announced, nor have there been any scandals to change these numbers.

The only thing that people see that might have changed this, is that Mike Castle, a Republican who is known for being one of the most, if not the most liberal Republicans in Congress, cast a vote against the healthcare plan.

Castle’s strength in Delaware politics was always that he was perceived an an iconoclastic man of integrity, not a party apparatchik, is now voting like a party apparatchik:

What’s responsible for the Biden surge? He’s grabbed the lead in vote-rich New Castle County, built up a 41-point lead among Democratic voters, and moved to only 5 points behind Castle among independents. According to the pollster, the shift “may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.” Castle, who has thrived as a moderate Republican in an increasingly Democratic state, has been casting more partisan votes–against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment–that have been well-reported in Delaware.

I think that if there is a final version healthcare, there will be more Republicans than just Anh “Joseph” Quang Cao voting for this bill, because some of them will realize just how toxic their leadership is from an electoral standpoint,

Southerners: A Majority of them are Not Stupid

No Comments

The folks at the Plum Line look at a CNN article on their CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, and tease out this bit of information:

Another factor that may be boosting Obama’s overall rating is the inevitable comparison with the man he replaced in the Oval Office. Fifty-seven percent say Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush; only a third say Bush’s track record was better.

“Compared to Obama, Bush does fairly well among southerners and rural voters. But even in those categories, a majority still says Obama has done a better job than Bush,” says Holland.

On the depressing side, however is the knowledge that 1/3 of the country are either complete morons, completely insane, or both.

If Andrew Cuomo Does Not Announce for NY Governor Soon

No Comments
Spitzer on Ratigan

Eliot Spitzer should.

Listen to him here. He gets what is going on with Wall Street, and knows exactly what the monster is, and how to slay it.

Andrew Cuomo knows this about Wall Street too, and doesn’t have that whole, “Hypocrite Mr. Clean who paid for Blow-jobs from a Skanky New Jersey Prostitute” vibe, so I prefer Cuomo.

Incumbent “accidental” Governor David Paterson, by contrast, has been very much in the pocket of Wall Street, fighting kicking and screaming about anything that could possibly inconvenience the “Masters of the Universe”, and the Governor of New York needs to be more than that.

What’s more, David Paterson is dead meat on the table, he’s polling at Dick Cheney numbers:

Only 15 percent of the 624 voters polled between October 14 and 18 would re-elect Paterson while 72 percent preferred someone else, the poll by Siena College’s Research Institute found.

The governor’s job performance was rated negative by 79 percent to 19 percent.

The only question is whether he bows out, gets beaten in the primary, or gets beaten in the general.

I think that David Paterson is beginning to get a clue about this, probably because he is having trouble raising funds.

Seriously, and if a Republican takes the state house in 2010, it means that redistricting will remain what it is in New York, and we’ll be stuck with an over-representation of Republicans in an overwhelmingly Democratic state.

It’s how the ‘Phants held the State Senate for 40 years.

Seriously, his numbers are so bad, that Rudolph Giuliani could beat him without running a campaign.

Even more impressively, Rudolph Giuliani could beat him if he did run a campaign, because if there is anything that the 2008 Republican Presidential primaries showed, it was that finding Rudy Giuliani on the campaign trail was a lot like finding a cockroach in your coffee.