Category: Polls

Obama’s Problem in 1 Picture

The larger problem here is not that somehow or other that these feelings are an inaccurate Thing is, these opinions do accurately reflect reality

Ezra Klein nails it with one picture.

You see, the American public, given a few months, and a subject that holds their interest, even tangentially, and they begin to tease truth from fiction, and as a group, come to understand what is going on.

It’s the Delphi Method writ large.

We saw it during Bill Clinton’s impeachment, when the public came to realize over a period of months that this was not the end of the world, it was some guy lying about cheating on his wife, and the Republicans attempting a coup as a result.

So, here we are, 8 months into the Obama administration, and a year into the financial crisis, and the American public gets it: No one is the least bit interested in doing anything to help them.

They are bailing out banks and automakers, and CEOs are still getting obscene pay packages, and the, as taxpayers are paying for it.

You see, this is not a problem that can be solved with an Obama speech, because there is nothing to explain here. That great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity,* Goldman Sachs, has captured treasury, insurance has captured healthcare, and real-estate has captured….well…Everything.

The Obama administration, and much of the Democratic Party has been captured by the Finance, Insurance, and Real-Estate (FIRE) sectors, and so is attempting to support the phony products of this sector, as opposed to produce something useful.

The Republican party has been captured by FIRE too, but this doesn’t matter, because they are remarkably honest about this, and their platform is not to protect the little guy, but rather to hate those defined as “the other”, so they are neither hypocrites, nor are they likely to lose much support.

That being said, much as in 1994, when people looked at the Democrats in Congress, and said, “If they are both going to f$#@ me over with NAFTA, I might as well vote for someone who hates f*gg*ts and n*gg*rs too,” Obama and the Dems are in real trouble.

As Harry S Truman said, “Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.

Absent actions that involve most of the senior staffs of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citi, Bank of America (Especially Ken Lewis), and the ratings agencies (S&P, Moody’s, etc) frog marched out of their places of work in handcuffs, this is the reality we have, not the reality we’d like to have.

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for this bon mot, it was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

Unbelievably Bad Political Analysis

Someone at Political Wire declares that Richard Burr (R-NC) is comfortably ahead of all potential challengers, because he has 43% of the voter against all of the, 43%-31% against Elaine Marshall, 43%-28% vs Cal Cunningham, and 43%-27% against Kenneth Lewis.

Just so you know, the rule of thumb is that undecideds break at least 2:1 against the incumbent,* so any time an incumbent is below 50%, they are in trouble, and an incumbent at 43%, is is very real trouble, particularly when his approval number is 38%.

This number has his campaign staff soiling their drawers.

Morons.

*I ran the numbers against Elaine Marshall and it comes to a 3% margin in the best case.

Where Real America Is

We have a CBS News Poll, and unlike the pundits, the American public gets it:

  • Higher taxes on the rich: Support 74% Oppose 23%
  • Obama’s Budget priorities: Support: 56% Oppose 32%
  • Auto industry bailout: Support 47% Oppose 38%
  • Banking industry bailout: Support 33% Oppose 58%
  • Increase financial regulation: Support 71% Oppose 23%

So, they don’t blame the unions for the Auto industry, despite the constant drum beat that this is the problem, they want to soak the rich, they support Obama, and they do blame the bank executives.

Economics Update


Scary Picture of the Day, Industrial Production, Courtesy of Naked Capitalism

The big news is that there are rumors of GM preparing for bankruptcy, and mark my words, if they do go into bankruptcy, it will be because of the bond holders, not the union, and I do not see it working as a prepackaged filing, so we would see massive disruptions amongst all the auto plants of all brands in the US.

Were it not for the GM rumors, the lede would be the continued implosion of consumer credit, with grim February reports showing that U.S. consumer credit falling by $7.48 billion, an annual rate of 3.5%, and homeowner mortgage default rates have increased to 7%, up more than 50% from a year ago.

That being said, it’s not just consumers and homeowners in trouble, as the default rate of “speculative-grade corporate borrowers” hit the highest rate since the depression in March.

Meanwhile in a harbinger of things to come in commercial real estate, New York City office rents fell 6% in the Q1 of 2009, and the vacancy rate is at 9.6%, up from 6.1% a year ago.

It is therefore unsurprising that the Business Roundtable’s survey of CEOs is showing falling confidence.

In the meantime, uncertainty, particularly the GM rumors have driven both the Yen and the US Dollar up, and has driven oil down.

Gillibrand Announces Big Fund Raising Quarter

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) raised in excess of $2.3 million since her Senate appointment.

I think that she is doing this to fend off/scare off a primary challenge from Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY-04), who is now polling ahead of her 33%-29% in the latest polls, though she is still below the magic 50% safe number for incumbents against Peter King, leading 40%-28% in the general too.

I think that Gillibrand will end up moving to the left over the next few months in order to fend of McCarthy, but time will tell.

Democratic Candidate Takes Lead in Special Election to Replace Gillibrand

Honestly, even with the new poll numbers, this is a heavily Republican distract, so I my guess would be that the Republican has the advantage, particularly given the low turn out in special elections, so I would expect the ‘Phant to win in this Tuesday’s election.

In either case, Jim Tadesco (R), and Scott Murphy (D) contest is much closer than the district’s fundamentals would suggest.

Why David Paterson Less Popular than a Case of the Clap

And maybe even less popular than Dick Cheney, according the the latest Marist poll, 26% favorable, with the poll showing him being trounced by Andrew Cuomo in the primary, and being soundly beaten by Rudolph Guiliani in the general.

I think that his slime campaign against Caroline Kennedy is a part of this, but his bleatings about how you can’t raise taxes on the rich, or they will leave the state, is what really put people over the edge.

His argument is, of course, completely absurd. No one lives in in New York, or at least no one lives in New York south of Albany, because it’s a low cost place to live.

What’s interesting here is that there are a lot of conservatives in New York, particularly in Long Island and upstate, and there is a long tradition of conservatism in those areas, and they hate him too.

I think that this is significant because people are finally beginning to understand that keeping taxes low on rich folk buggers the rest of society (without lube).

After 30 years of soak the poor (and middle class) tax policies, people are finally starting to get it.

As for what looks like a soon to be former Governor Paterson, who missed this shift, and looks like he might be crushed by it, the great Gary Larson put it best:

Americans Want Accountability for Bush Torture

Though, interestingly enough, USA Today runs with the lede of Most want inquiry into anti-terror tactics, while Gallup goes with No Mandate for Criminal Probes of Bush Administration.

38% want a criminal investigation, 24% want some sort of “truth and reconciliation” panel, and 34%, the “dead enders,” don’t want either.

Sounds like a mandate to me.

FWIW, the numbers for investigation Attorneygate and warrantless wiretapping are even more in favor of investigating the matters.

Looks Like Netanyaho Will Be the Next Israeli PM

He’s leading strongly in polls, here and here, and the Labor Party has triangulated itself into irrelevancy, with Kadima not being meaningfully to the right on either economics or security, and more progressive parties parties, particularly Meretz (also here) picking up the folks who oppose Thatcherite domestic policies.

Labor simply does not stand for anything any more, and the fact that it is basically tied with Meretz is an indication that it has no ideological base.

Because they Have Lost the People Who Worship Power

If you thought that the Republican Party’s poll numbers could not go any lower, you would be wrong, they can, and they have.

Favorable/Unfavorable has gone from 40/53 to 34/61.

The real change is that a month ago, Obama had not won the election, so people who cling to power were still with them.

There are always people who want to hang with the winning team, not matter how repugnant, and those rats have boarded the lifeboats.

Bachmann Now Behind Tinklenberg

SurveyUSA has the numbers:
Michele Bachmann(Insane ‘Phant): 44%
Elwyn Tinklenberg* (D): 47%
Bob Anderson (I) 6%.

There is a 4% margin of error, so it’s still too close to call. There is only about 2% undecided, and so the 2:1 undecideds breaking against the incumbent does not mean much here.

It will be close.

*I know that it’s not nice to make fun of someone’s name, but his name still sounds like a character from Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegone.

The Upside of the Financial Meltdown

Conservatives losing elections, in this case the nasty bit of putrescence that is Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

He was hoping for an outright majority, they currently hold a minority government, and now it looks like the Liberals and the NDP would have control of a minority government.

At the very least, it would prevent the Conservatives from holding an outright majority.

We’ll know tomorrow evening.

While We Are Talking About Republican Incumbents in Trouble

We can add the contemptible Mitch McConnell to the list.

We have two polls, Mason-Dixon showing McConnell ahead of Lunsford by 45-44, and SurveyUSA having McConnell ahead 49-46:

Those numbers have so encouraged Democrats that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this week went up with its first TV ad against McConnell — something that even DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) acknowledged was unthinkable a few weeks ago.

Schumer said Wednesday that Kentucky and Georgia — where GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in an unexpectedly tough race — are now on his radar as potential pickups given recent polling.

I’m sure that it doesn’t help McConnell that his wife, Elaine Chao, is Bush’s secretary of labor and hates the working man.

Heh.

Couldn’t happen to a couple of nicer guys.