Category: Polls

Micheal O’Hanlon Can Go Cheney Himself

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So, the Washington Post conducted a poll on the war, and talked to some so-called experts.

One of them was the wanktacular Michael O’Hanlon:

To say you’re going to get out on a certain schedule — regardless of what the Iraqis do, regardless of what our enemies do, regardless of what is happening on the ground — is the height of absurdity,’ said O’Hanlon, who described himself as ‘livid.’ ‘I’m not going to go to the next level of invective and say he shouldn’t be president. I’ll leave that to someone else.’

(emphasis mine)

  • This guy is not a Middle East expert.
  • He’s not a terrorism expert.
  • He does not speak Arabic.

His “expertise” is in military budgeting, and he has gotten a lot of face time on the air because he’s from the so called “center left” think tank, the Brookings Institution, and he loves the war in Iraq.

I understand that when the war in Iraq is over, he won’t be quoted 2-4 times a month by the national press, but that is no reason for him want Americans and Iraqis to keep dying.

Not also that the poll is wanktacular too, it says it’s about the candidates positions, but the question is, “Obama has proposed a timetable to withdraw most U.S. forces from Iraq within 16 months of his taking office. McCain has opposed a specific timetable and said events should dictate when troops are withdrawn. Which approach do you prefer – a timetable or no timetable?“

That is a question designed to get a higher number (it’s 50%-49% in favor of the time table) than any other question, but it allows the Post to claim that people are evenly split, when “not worth fighting” wins 63% to 36%, and that success in the war is not necessary to win the war on terror (60% to 34%).

Some More Senate Polls

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In Louisiana, we have Rasmussen Reports™ saying that:

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu now attracts 49% of the vote in her bid for re-election while Republican challenger John Kennedy earns 44%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows that, when “leaners” are included, it’s Landrieu 51% Kennedy 45%.

I think that this is significant, because she is above 50%, which is the worry point for an incumbent.

We also have an SurveyUSA Election Poll for Minnesota which shows Franken down by 13%, 39% to 52% to Coleman.

Both Survey USA and Rasmussen are reliable, so I’m unclear whether this poll, or the one from last night, which showed Franken up by 2%, is accurate.

In terms of how much I care, I care more about Minnesota than Louisiana, because we have a real Democrat running in Minnesota, and I think that after the ethnic cleansing of post Katrina Louisiana, the state is no longer viable territory.

Another Couple of Seats Become Competitive

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This time, it’s the brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, the wingnuttiest of the anti-Castro wingnuts, who appear to be vulnerable.

Remembering that undecided tend to break for the challenger 2:1 ratio:

Lincoln Diaz-Balart leads former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez 41 percent to 37 percent in the poll, with 22 percent undecided. Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia, former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

Margin of error is 5% which puts both candidates within the margin of error.

I would also say that the undecides are likely to break even harder against them than the normal trend, as the Diaz-Balart’s are the unelected royalty of the right wing Cuban emigre community, and that community is likely already fully plumbed, while the undecideds are likely non-Cuban Hispanics and whites who have increasingly become, particularly since the Elian affair, disgusted with the anti-Castro whack job community.

Senate Polling Numbers

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In Maine, we have Susan Collins(R) fading, she is now leading Tom Allen(D) by 49%-42%, but any incumbent below 50% is in trouble, and not so long ago it was something like 52-39.

The one that surprises me though are the numbers for Mississippi, where the kinda-sorta incumbent* Roger Wicker(R) is behind Ronnie Musgrove(D) 46%-47%.

I would not expect that in Mississippi.

*Wicker has been in the Senate for only a few months, he was appointed to replace Lott when he retired to become a lobbyist .

Senate Polling

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  • SurveyUSA: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 50%; Bruce Lunsford (D-MN) 46%: I’m surprised that it’s this close now. McConnell is still at the magic 50% number, but he’s the minority leader of the Senate.
  • Rasmussen Reports™: Ted Stephens (R-AK) 46%; Mark Begich (D-AK) 44%: Stevens is in real trouble. One of the truisms of politics are that undecideds break against the incumbent by at least 2:1.
  • SurveyUSA: Norm Coleman (R-MN) 52%; Al Franken (D-MN), if Jesse Ventura enters the race as an independent, it becomes (R)41%-(D)31%-(I)23%: This as me bumming. I hate that smarmy bastard Coleman. One hopes that the race will become more about Norm Coleman, and less about Al Franken.
  • Rasmussen Reports™: Mark Warner (D-VA) 60%; Jim Gilmore (R-VA) 33%: Virginia will have two Democratic Senators.
  • Rasmussen Reports™: Pat Roberts (R-KS) 48%; Jim Slattery (D-KS) 39%: The fact that the incumbent Republican in Kansas is below 50% is simply stunning. I think that this is unlikely Dem pickup, but the idea that a Democrat has a non-insane shot at this, Roberts is below 50%, is stunning.

Updates on Various Races

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Rasmussen Reports™: has Norm Coleman at 48% and Al Franken 45%, and it is not good for an incumbent to be below 50%. This will be winnable, even with the phony scandals drummed up by Coleman’s bully boys.

The race for Fossella’s seat in Staten Island is a tossup, though it has historically been a fairly solid Republican district.

Rasmussen Reports™ has Liddy Dole with a 14-Point Lead Over Kay Hagan, 53%-39%. The last poll had Hagan up by 1 point, immediately after she won the primary, but Dole has been running ads, and Hagan has not.

Dems Hold Lead in Polls in Alaska

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The last time that Alaska was truly competitive for Democrats was shortly after I left, at age 6, in 1968, and now we have polls showing Begich leading Stevens and Berkowitz beating Young, and both the Republicans are incumbents, albeit fantastically corrupt ones.

Mark Begich (51%) – Ted Stevens (44%)
Eathan Berkowitz (58) – Don Young (38%)

I think that the good people of Alaska realize that these guys are an embarrassment.

Senate Poll Numbers

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All are from Rasmussen Reports™.

Election 2008: Kentucky Senate: Lunsford (D) 49% McConnell (R) 44%

This surprises me….I’d love to see Mitch McConnell get bounced, and this is a very bad number for him

Election 2008: Minnesota Senate: Coleman (R) 47% Franken (D) 45%

Franken took a hit over his tax issues, but most undecideds break against the incumbent, so I still think that there is a good chance for a pickup. If there is a debate, I think that Franken will clean Coleman’s clock.

Election 2008: Kansas Senate: Roberts 52% Slattery 40%

I’m stunned that this one is so close. Kansas doesn’t send Democrats to the Senate. Slattery could win this, but he has to get everything right.

Congressional Polls Update

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DSCC: Ronnie Musgrove leads Roger Wicker, who was appointed to replace Lott, by 8%, 48% to 40%. Obviously, as this is a partisan poll, it can be taken with a grain of salt, but any time an incumbent, even one who has been in office for just a few weeks is at 40%, they are in trouble

Rasmussen Reports™ has Kay Hagan(D) leading Liddy Dole(R) by 1%, 48% to 47% in North Carolina, well with in the margin of error, but with Dole as a prominent incumbent being below 50%, she’s got a fight.

They also have Marc Udall with a 6% lead over Bob Shaffer in Colorado, 47% to 41% in the race to replace retiring Senator Wayne Allard with a margin of ±4%.