I think that one of my concerns about Barack Obama is that he suffers from “Adlai Stevenson Syndrome”, where he thinks that the rough and tumble of politics is somehow beneath him.

There appears to be some signs of hope on this, Obama is now criticizing Hillary Clinton by name on her the Iran Revolutionary Guard resolution.

Additionally, I think that both Edwards and Obama have held off on attacking Clinton out of concern that it would drive primarily benefit the one not in the fight, though Elizabeth Edwards has wisely functioned as a proxy in this issue.

I think that Clinton is far to concerned about proving her toughness, and as such, it undermines her strength. Basically, she feels a need to act like one of those “very serious” people from the Council on Foreign Relations, who to this day say that we should stay in Iraq.

That would be her weakness as president, and I think that it can be shown to be her weakness as a candidate.

I tend that someone at the DNC *cough*Howard Dean*cough* got this organized so that it was a win situation to stay in.

This also means that Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton will be the only ones on the ballot, and I would expect Dodd to break 25%, just on the number of folks who don’t want to pull the lever for Clinton in the primary.

Hillary is now in a bad position. If she ignores Michigan, Dodd might score a “stunner”, and if she devotes resources there, it’s going to diffuse her efforts elsewhere.

Let’s also say that not being on the ballot in Michigan is the right thing to do. The folks in the Michigan state house just got owned.

Kucinich withdraws from Michigan Democratic primary ballot

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – Tuesday, October 9, 2007

DOVER, NH – The Kucinich for President campaign announced this afternoon that it has filed an affidavit with the Michigan Secretary of State’s office officially requesting that the name of Ohio Congressman and Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich be withdrawn from the Michigan Democratic primary ballot.

The sworn statement requesting withdrawal was submitted via fax by Kucinich National Campaign Manager Mike Klein shortly before today’s 4 p.m. deadline.

At the same time, the Kucinich campaign issued the following statement on behalf of the candidate, who is campaigning in Arizona today:

“We signed a public pledge recently, promising to stand with New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and the DNC-approved ‘early window’, and the action we are taking today protects New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary status, and Nevada’s early caucus.”

The statement continued: “We support the grassroots nature of the New Hampshire, small-state primary, and we support the diversity efforts that Chairman Dean and the DNC instituted last year, when they added Nevada and South Carolina to the window in January 2008. We are obviously committed to New Hampshire’s historic role.”

Klein, who recently moved to Dover, NH to run the national Kucinich campaign, added, “We will continue to adhere to the DNC-approved primary schedule.”

This is big. This is not a “nudge, nudge, wink, wink, we’re not campaigning here” thing. They have pulled their names from the ballot.

These candidates, particularly Obama and Edwards, have just made the Michigan primary irrelevant.

Hillary is still in there, but now she is competing against herself there, and all she can do is lose. My guess is that either Kucinich or Gravel will break double digits, which will likely be perceived as a loss for Clinton.

Personally, I’d like to see Dodd do well, he’s my favorite of the lower tier candidates.

The delegates won’t matter. It’s who wins the “real” primaries in this front loaded system that count, because the process is even more front loaded than it was in 2004, and it was done in a month.

This is a good move for the party and for the primaries.

I’m going to miss him when he drops out.

This time Freddie Dalton Thompson is calling Rush Limbaugh “One Of The Strongest Supporters Of Our Troops”.

Seriously. Thompson makes Ronald Reagan in his later years^* look alert and aware.

^*AKA, the official state vegetable of California.

He’s going after he on a number of levels, but his attacks against Mark Penn are likely to be effective.

I’ve previously mentioned his financial ties to union buster, but now Edwards is pounding on Penn’s ties to Blackwater

Mark Penn is the worldwide president and CEO of Burson-Marsteller. The firm’s lobbying subsidiary BKSH helped Blackwater’s top executive, Erik Prince, prepare for his congressional testimony this week.

I believe that both Obama and Edwards have held off attacking because they feel that the other will be the primary recipient of the benefits, and that Edwards has concluded that it’s time to take the gloves off.

Good.

Penn is pond scum, and making him an albatross around Hillary’s neck will either hurt Hillary, or get Penn out of the campaign, both of which are positive actions.

Members of the religious right are threatening a 3rd party bid if Rudy wins, and Rudy’s response is not to talk to them.

Let’s be clear, this is not a tactical decision, some sort of attempt to present himself as tough. This is who Rudy is.

Veteran Rudy insiders have been predicting this for some time, because there’s a backstory here that longtime Rudy watchers know about. Back in 2000, when Rudy was running for Senate, he was being attacked by the leader of New York’s Conservative Party for his pro-choice views. This was a big deal because Republicans in New York need the Conservative Party to overcome the state’s Dem tilt and win statewide office. But Rudy steadily ignored the Conservative chief for weeks and weeks, and at one point started lambasting him in the press. He even said what he’s saying now: That conservatives would gravitate towards him despite what their leader said.

This is part of who Guiliani is. He has consistently refused to deal with people who were not in complete lockstep with him.

Any future foreign policy under a Guiliani administration would make Bush/Cheney look like Mahatma Ghandi.

Scary thought.

The fact that Ron Paul has raised as much as John McCain is less about Ron Paul than it is about George W. Bush, and the fact that Ron Paul is the only one willing to call him out, notwithstanding Mike Huckabee’s timid critique of Bush a few days back.

People are sick of the war. They are sick of torture. They are sick of incompetence.

It appears so from a conference call.

Campaign manager Jonathan Prince that said that Edwards “made a decision that he did not want to advocate for ending the problem of the corruption in our political financing” without taking meaningful action himself — that is, opting into the public system in order to prove his dedication to public financing.

When the subject of campaign finance and lobbiests came up int he debates, Hillary was an enthusiastic defender of the status quo, and this is a laying the groundwork to do this.

Let me be clear: I believe that this strategy is stupid, it appears to have sprung from the mind of Joe Trippi, but it is not insanely stupid.

See the picture of him by the photojournalist “Majikthise” Beyerstein at the Clinton Global Initiative.

This is not the face of a man who is running for office. He’s relaxed, happy, and a bit chubby. He’d be doing the treadmill like a maniac, and he’d be stiff as a board were he running.

He is not running.