Category: Proliferation

Update on Syrian Nuclear Reactor

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Well, it now appears that the IAEA found traces of enriched Uranium at the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor site.

It appears that I was wrong, I figured that it was beyond their level of nuclear infrastructure to even try.

On a related note, officials at the IAEA are seriously pissed off at whoever leaked the above data, because they see it as, “an effort to prejudge the agency’s conclusions.”

Basically, it appears that the source of the contamination is not clear:

The particles retrieved from some environmental swipe samples were of processed uranium — which could include the enriched version that in large quantities would fuel power plants or bombs, not of raw uranium ore, they said.

Such traces, they said, could have been carried to the site inadvertently on scientists or workers or on equipment trucked in. Syria has one declared atomic site, a research reactor.

A remote source could resemble a finding made in a long IAEA investigation of Iran’s secretive nuclear program.

Bomb-grade uranium particles found by IAEA sleuths there were assessed to have come with used equipment obtained from Pakistan, not from any undeclared domestic production facility.

George W. Bush Gives in to Axis of Evil

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Or at least the one member of the axis: It appears that the U.S. dropping North Korea from terror list, as it had to promised to do in negotiations, and the DPRK is resuming dismantling its nuclear program.

The Japanese are pissed off about this, what with the whole bizarre, “Kidnapping Japanese citizens,” thing still unresolved, but pretty much everyone else is happy about this development.

It appears that South Korea will be sending a delayed shipment of steel to the DPRK, and we now have reports that the IAEA has had its access restored.

U.S. Senate Votes to Make Nonproliferation a Joke

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To quote Crooks and Liars on the U.S. Senate voting 86 to 13 to approve the nuclear arms deal with India.

Needless to say, this is one of the few diplomatic accomplishments of this administration, wiping their ass on the non-proliferation regime studiously created over the past 40 years so that US nuclear companies can make a few bucks.

This makes the single most dangerous issue in the world, fully militarized nuclear warheads on delivery systems in Pakistan and India even worse.

I’d say “mission accomplished”, but Condoleeza “The Worst Secretary of State Ever” Rice has managed to screw up even this. She visited India after the Senate’s approval, and could not sign it because of unspecified bureaucratic issues.

I guess someone forgot to pay the service contract on the State Department copying machines.

Incompetent Condi Rice STILL Can’t Manage Her Way Out of a Paper Bag — DPRK Edition

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Well, it appears, that once again Rice is more concerned with being a close confidant to the president than doing her job, and as a result, conflicts between the negotiators and the John Bolton clones in the arms control wing of the State Department have sabotaged the agreement on North Korean nuclear weapons.

Under the proposal, heavily influenced by the State Department’s arms control experts, the U.S. requested “full access to all materials” at sites that might have had a nuclear purpose in the past. It sought “full access to any site, facility or location” deemed relevant to the nuclear program, including military facilities, according to the four-page document, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post. Investigators would be able to take photographs and make videos, remain on site as long as necessary, make repeated visits and collect and remove samples.

It’s essentially what they insisted on Iraq, only the Iraqis had already lost a war, and signed an agreement ceding much sovereignty in that area.

What’s more, we know who was pushing for a breakdown in the agreement:

“I am notifying Congress of my intent to rescind North Korea’s designation as a state sponsor of terror in 45 days,” Bush announced June 26. “The next 45 days will be an important period for North Korea to show its seriousness of its cooperation. We will work through the six-party talks to develop a comprehensive and rigorous verification protocol. And during this period, the United States will carefully observe North Korea’s actions — and act accordingly.”

But there was no written document linking North Korea’s performance on verification to its removal from the terror list, sources said. So when Bush let the 45 days pass without any action, North Korea denounced what it called “obviously a violation of the principle of ‘action for action’ essential for realizing denuclearization.”

The Bush administration does not want a deal. They see it as weakness, and besides, California and Hawaii, the likely targets of a missile attack, don’t vote Republican.

DPRK Testing New Missile Engine

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It appears that they are in response to the US refusing to take them off the terrorist list, as was previously agreed to.

Seriously, taking them off the list is just a stroke of a pen, and can be reinstated with a stroke of a pen, but Bush and His Evil Minions&trade are so busy swinging their dicks that they are convincing the North Koreans that this is all some sort of ploy to destroy them.

Fracking with paranoids for giggles when they have missiles and nukes is stupid, but for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade, stupid is as stupid does, I guess.

Another Failure for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade

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Well, after expending all that time and effort on trying to ram through a US-India nuclear deal, it appears that even with the deal, India will be going with non-US companies for its nuclear needs, they will go to French and Russian companies.

It turns out that the Indian model, of purchasing whole systems from one vendor, does not lend itself to the way that the US nuclear power industry is structured.

So Bush isn’t even making money for GE and Bechtel out of this.

Bush and His Evil Minions&trade Frack it Up Again: DPRK Nukes Edition

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Because Bush/Cheney is unwilling to take the DPRK off a terror watch list, as it has promised, they have stopped dismantling their facilities, and are threatening to reconstitute them.

Because Cheney wants to swing his dick around*, about the only thing remotely like a positive foreign policy accomplishment is about to go down the drain.

It’s behavior like this which make North Korea a paranoid nuclear power. It makes them believe that the US is just waiting to attack them.

*Sorry for that image.

Nuclear Suppliers Group Throws Monkey Wrench into Indo-American Civil Nuke Deal

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Which I consider to be a good thing.

The idea that somehow the technical know-how that the French and the US nuclear industries are so interested in exporting to India won’t flow to their weapons’ program is naive at best.

Right now, the US is lobbying the 45 nation NSG to grant a waiver to India, even though it will not sign the NNPT.

This approval is necessary for the Indo-US deal to go through, and the NSG is looking at adding conditions to the waiver such as periodic reviews, a more intrusive inspection regime of civilian nuclear power plants, and a cancellation of the waiver in the event of additional Indian weapons testing.

India has said that it would reject any such conditions though, so it’s unclear where things go from here.

Honestly, I see this as phenomenally bad policy being pushed by the US Nuclear power industry, and being supported by Bush and His Evil Minions™ because they are reliable Republican donors.

Economics Update

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Well, we are now seeing reports that the FDIC is going to have to raise premiums to cover losses from bank failures.

They should have started last year.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is showing signs of significant inflation, with China’s wholesale prices rising 10% year over year in July.

The problem here is that the obvious solution, the central bank raising interest rates, will server to further weaken the dollar, which will drive their exports down….Catch 22.

Meanwhile, it appears that Morgan Stanley has problems, because Moody’s just cuts its credit rating to A1 from Aa3 because of losses in the mortgage market.

Interestingly enough, even though Georgia and Russia are in something very close to a war, and the Georgian pipeline is a crucial link for Europe, oil is down, largely on the Iranians agreeing to a new round of negotiations on their Uranium enrichment program.

Gasoline is down again, for the 25th day in a row.

The dollar rose today, probably as a result of concerns about the conflict between Georgia and Russia, which tends to send money fleeing to the relative safety of the US dollar.

And in the, “Funnier if it weren’t so true” department:

Allegations of Bribery In Indian Nuke Vote

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Details here, here, and here.

The last link gets into the opposition of Kumari Mayawati to the measure. She is the defacto national representative of India’s Dalit (untouchable) population, and based on what I’ve read about her indicates that she is a very skilled politician, and so probably she’s setting herself up for a larger role in the next government.

One thing that I am sure of though is that it won’t make it through this session of the US Congress, because the Hyde Act requires that Congress be in session continuously for 30 days before a vote is held, and that will not happen in late July of an election year.

Indian Government Wins Confidence Vote on Nuke Deal

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The vote was 275 votes to 256 with 10 abstentions.

Honestly, I think that the nuclear deal is a bad one, it provides civilian nuclear technology to India while its weapons program proceeds apace, but it puts me on the side of the the BJP,* which makes me feeling queasy, though their objection is a nationalist one, that there should be no limits on weapons building and testing, and mine is an anti-proliferation one, that we are rewarding a proliferator with the deal, and will inevitably supply technology for weapons development, simply to benefit the moribund US nuclear industry.

It still has to pass Congress, which is unlikely until after Bush leaves office, and a new administration may wish to tweak the deal.

US Congress Obstacle to US/India Nuke Deal

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While it looks like the Indian PM Manmohan Singh may find the votes to approve the deal with the US on civilian nuclear power, it appears that it’s unlikely to make it through Congress this year.

The legislation that enabled the negotiations, the 2006 Hyde act, requires that Congress, “be in 30 days of continuous session to consider it”, and there are only 40 days to the August recess, when we are in election season.

While it is possible that this could be finished in a post election lame duck session, that is unlikely, a lame duck session that long would run into the holiday season, and none of the Democrats are even remotely interested in giving Bush time to try last minute hail Mary legislative initiatives.

In the next session, approval may be even more unlikely. In the US, this process has primarily been about political payback to the US nuclear industry, which has supported Republicans.

Here’s hoping, particularly since it appears that India will continue to build nuclear weapons.

Indian Communist Party Withdraw Support Over US India Nuke Deal

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The arrangement is odd, the Communists are not formally a part of the government, but they have supported the government on confidence votes, but they are now withdrawing their support because of the US-India nuclear deal, which they feel violated Indian sovereignty.

They don’t object to the nuclear cooperation. They object to signing the NNPT and negotiating with the IAEA.

It looks like both the Bush and His Evil Minions™ and the Indian Congress party are rushing to get this deal signed before January 21, 2009.

Background here, here, here, here, and here.