Category: Proliferation

Iranians Sick of Ahmadinejad Too

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While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the most prominent Iranian leader, it’s also true that he actually has very little role in foreign policy.

It now appears that officials who are involved in Iranian foreign policy are telling him to STFU, with Ali Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that, “Iranian officials must avoid making ‘provocative’ statements”, and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki saying that the EU proposals on Uranium enrichment were “constructive”.

There are more adults in the various executive branches of Iran than there are in the US White House.

An Interesting Sidebar to the Israeli Bombing in Syria

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First, Israel is alleging that Syria had a deal with Iran to send some of the spent fuel back to them for Plutonium processing, and second, the raid may have been what led to the current talks.

First, it appears that the fact that Bashir Assad remained in power following the bombing gave the Israelis confidence that he was actually in control, and second, it appears that the bombing reminded the Syrians that the “gang that can’t shoot straight” show that occurred in the Lebanon war is the exception, not the rule.

Together, both articles paint an interesting picture.

Nuclear Waste Import Standoff

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This is a nice rundown of the sh^% storm coming down about the importation of nuclear waste from Italy for processing and disposal.

Obviously, it all has to go somewhere, and the proliferation issues involved with it staying somewhere unsafe bear some careful thought.

Beyond that, I have no comment….I am currently working in the biz, though not on this specific project, and it would be inappropriate for me to make any further comment.

A Good Article on Modern Strategic Camoflage

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In the Washington Post, of all sources. Basically, they describe the techniques used by Syria to conceal their nuclear site*, and make it clear that various nations are becoming increasingly savvy about satellite reconnaissance, and how to conceal large items from this.

They used techniques such as burying power lines in trenches, embedding cooling towers in walls, etc.

It’s a good read.

*Yep, it appears that I was wrong when I ruled this out.

South Asian Missile Developments

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India has tested a nuclear capable ballistic missile with a range in excess of 300km, which puts much of China firmly in range, and Pakistan test fired a nuclear capable cruise missile with a 350 km range.

While I understand the threat that al Queida in the region poses, the fact that we have two nuclear armed powers who might actually pull the trigger on each other seems to me to be far more pressing, particularly since it could not involve the Chinese.

US Claims DPRK-Syria Nuclear Ties

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Sounds familiar *Cough* Iraq *Cough*? Don’t worry, we have video taped evidence, so there can be no question that…what????

Oh, we don’t have a video tape. We have a video presentation of a PowerPoint presentation, so what we have is something that is very close to Colin Powell’s infamous UN presentation (full disclosure, I know people who were involved int he technical end of the production):

A US official, requesting anonymity, told AFP: “There are still photographs of the facility as part of the video, but it’s a video presentation, like a Powerpoint presentation. It’s not a video of the facility.”

Just to remind everyone, we have no credibility on this:

Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha yesterday angrily denounced the U.S. and Israeli assertions. ‘If they show a video, remember that the U.S. went to the U.N. Security Council and displayed evidence and images about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I hope the American people will not be as gullible this time around,’ he said.

From your mouth to God’s ear.

Good News on that Pesky Nuclear War thing

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It appears that the US and the DPRK have come to an understanding over a North Korea-Syria connection and Uranium enrichment.

It involves the release of a document where the US makes the charges, and the DPRK acknowleges the US concerns.

Also, Iran has expressed a willingness to enter into talks over nuclear and other issues.

On the latter, the issue has always been more the US than Iran, because of the Bush admin’s insistence on it being a single issue negotiation, with Iranian capitulation being a necessary condition for even that.

France to Cut Nuclear Arsenal

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This is something that we should be doing too. Sarkosy has announced that the French nuclear arsenal will be cut to less than 300, about half of what it was at its peak.

This is a good step for everyone. Currently, according to the wiki, “[the USA] maintains a current arsenal of around 9,960 intact warheads, of which 5,735 are considered active or operational”.

I see no reason that we could not drop down to below 1000 operational warheads.

US Poised to F*&^ It Up Yet Again With DPRK

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So, the US is now demanding some sort of “clear signal” in order for negotiations to proceed.

The problem here is that there are people in political positions, who I won’t name for fear that they will get drunk and shoot me in the face, who believe that negotiations of any sort are a victory for North Korea, and a defeat for the US, so the directives come down to keep erecting road blocks.

The North Koreans are not crazy. They are secretive, in many ways criminal, largely uncaring about the wellbeing of their population, and paranoid, but they are not crazy.

They honestly believe, and have believed for the last 50 years, that the US is planning a sneak attack against them in the hope of decapitating their regime and taking over their country.

Every time there is progress in discussions, and then the US creates another stupid hoop to jump through, it reinforces that belief.

This is well and truly stupid.