Category: Real Estate

Economics Update

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The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for 7th straight month in November, as did the Japanese coincident indicator index for the month of October.

On the other side of the coin, the National Federation of Independent Businesses is reporting that small business optimism fell in November, and a recent poll is showing that Americans are becoming more pessimistic about the economy, and the Australian consumer is in a foul mood too.

In real estate, by dint of many government efforts to reinflate the bubble, Freddie Mac is reporting that home prices are up for the 2nd straight quarter.

So, we can expect more tax credits and suchlike in order to put off a final day of reckoning.

We had a major monkey wrench thrown into the the works of international finance today, when Fitch’s downgraded Greece’s credit rating from A- to BBB+, which has spooked the markets generally, most notably this news has pushed the Euro lower, with investors moving to the dollar and Yen, mostly the Yen, the dollar was up vs the € and down vs the ¥, looking for a safe haven.

Additionally, an update on Japan’s GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter slashed growth from the initial reading of 4.8% to 1.3%.

The rising dollar, along with reports of strong inventories, drove oil to below $73/bbl.

Economics Update (Yeah, Way Late)

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Unemployment h/t Calculated Risk


Unemployment over recessions h/t Calculated Risk


Back to where we started before Congress gave the credit card companies a big wet kiss.

I think that this is the first time that I’ve tot this since Thanksgiving. Sorry, it’s been hectic.

The lede, of course, it the unemployment numbers, and we now have the official numbers for November, and they are surprisingly not bad (using the phrase “good” for double digit unemployment is an absurdity): Non Farm Payroll fell by only 11,000 in November, and the Unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 10.0%. (The ADP prediction from earlier this week was way off)

Initial unemployment claims fell by 5K, to 457,000, with the 4-week moving average falling 14,250 to 481,250, both of which are the lowest since the 3rd quarter of last year.

On the other hand, continuing claims rose by 28K to 5.47 million, and the number of people who were collecting extended (emergency) unemployment benefits the number of people collecting extended benefits under federal programs rose by 327K to 4.53 million for the week ending November 14, when the bill that Congress passed extending benefits kicked in, so there are more people collecting benefits now than there were last week….A lot more.

Seeing as how the US Economy needs to add roughly 150,000 jobs a month just to account for a growing workforce, at best we are in a “getting crappy less quickly” stage, and at worst, it could be a dead cat bounce.

In non-employment related metrics, we have the both the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index falling, though the latter is still indicating expansion, just very slow expansion, though the November Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to a 15-month high, and the Fed’s Beige Book is showing improvement.

The reason that I am not optimistic, in addition to being bearish by temperament, is because retail sales fell below estimates for the start of the holiday season, and because personal bankruptcy filings are still horrific, (see pic) they were down in November from October, but still up 12% from Year over Year.

In real estate, 30-year fixed mortgages fell.

And in the world of central banks, the European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 1%, though it gave indications that it would be walking away from its quantitative easing, which drove both oil and the dollar down.

Economics Update (Catching Up)

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H/t Calculated Risk

The lede here is that the corrected numbers for US GDP are out, and it’s way down, to +2.8%, down from the initial estimate of 3.5%.

Even more worrying is that the primary reason for the drop is that that consumer demand is way down, which does not bode well for the holiday season.

Some things to note on this:
GDP is still down year over year, and at this won’t be back to the pre-recession level until sometime in 2011.

Also, the credit card data has more evidence of consumer deleveraging, with late payments on credit cards falling in the 3rd quarter, though delinquencies were up in October.

The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence index roses in November, but still at levels indicating contraction, 49.5, where 90 is more or less neutral.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago also released its National Activity Index, and it fell slightly (PDF), to -1.08, which indicates that things are still moving in a recessionary direction.

In real estate, the 3rd quarter numbers are in, and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices increasing 3.1%, though it’s still down 9% year over year, and existing home sales rose an astounding 10% in October.

The timing here shows why this housing “recovery” is a mirage. Existing home sales rose in October because these were people scrambling to get in under the wire for the new home tax credit.

Some quick math shows that the median existing home prices in the US is $173,100, and $8000 is 4.62% of that, so the the degree to which the tax credit is driving price deltas is probably pretty significant.

Meanwhile, we are having some significant movement in the bond/central bank world, both nationally and internationally, with Fitch cutting its rating Mexico’s sovereign debt, the Bank of Israel yesterday raising its overnight lending rate by a 25 basis points (¼%), and Colombia’s central bank cutting its rate by 50 basis points (½%), because inflation is below expectations, and they want to give their economy a boost.

My guess is also that Columbia wants to push its currency down to help with its trade balance.

US Treasuries rose in their most recent auction, probably because investors are looking for safe havens following the downward GDP revision.

Certainly the GDP revision pushed oil down, though interestingly enough the dollar fell against both the Yen and Euro.

OK, this is Scary

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Remember yesterday, when I said that 1 in 16 (6.25%) homes was delinquent or in foreclosure?

That number counted only those people who were more than 60 days delinquent, and it counted all homeowners.

If you count all delinquent mortgages, not just 60+ days, and do so as a percentage of the mortgages, not homeowners, then 14.41% of all mortgages were either behind a payment or in foreclosure, the highest number recorded since this statistic started being collected by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association in 1972.

That’s 1 in 7 mortgages.

We are unbelievably screwed.

Economics Update

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The Consumer Price Index is up again, largely on rising fuel prices, with CPI up 0.3%, and down -0.2% year over year, and the “core” CPI, which strips out food and energy, is up 0.2%, up 1.7% year over year for the core rate.

This is raising concerns about inflation (stupid, but it’s the way that these folks think) because energy is still about 14% lower than it was last year, so if equilibrium in oil prices is higher than it is now we may see non trivial (over 2% annual according to the inflation hawks) inflation rates.

Meanwhile, the bad news continues along (see graph pr0n), with housing starts and applications for building permits falling unexpectedly in October. (pics 1, 2, 3, and 4)

Additionally, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) while rising, remained below 50, indicating a continuing contraction in future commercial real estate construction. The ABI leads construction by 9-12 months, so 2010 looks bleak for non-residential building. (pic 5)

There is also the fact that rents are continuing to fall, and since the best metric of house prices is their ratio to renting, this indicates that there housing in general, not just the price of a single family dwelling are still overpriced, and have a way to fall.

Additionally, I think that home sellers are running out of buyers, as mortgage applications fell even though rates were down this week.

The inflation that I mention has spooked the bond market, driving prices down and yields up.

And some news on the weird side, monoliner insurer Ambac announced in its SEC filing that its capital levels were well in excess of regulatory requirements.

Everyone figured that they were due for a takeover by regulators…I guess that “everyone” was wrong.

We are seeing some signs of recovery in international trade, with the Baltic Dry Index, an indicator of the demand for shipping hitting a high for this year.

It appears to be driven by increased Chinese demand for raw materials, and the fact that there are large fleets of ships that have been mothballed that won’t be able to address marked demand for months.

Meanwhile, in energy, oil rose above $80/bbl on a drop in US inventories, and in currency, the dollar fell on statements by a Federal Reserve member that rates would stay low.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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TIPS Spread


US Trade Deficit, h/t Calculated Risk

Notwithstanding all the chest pounding by folks claiming that the, “recession is over,” consumer sentiment is continuing to fall, with the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers falling to 66.0 in November, from 70.6 in October.

It also looks like real estate is in the same bind, with the US Home Purchase Index falling to a 9-year low last week, on concerns that the about what was going on with the new home buyer tax credit.

Basically, this is showing that the only thing keeping the home market from falling further, is massive government support.

We have some good news on inflation, unless you are like me, and see a period of sustained inflation as a way to monetize debts paralyzing our economy.

Paul Krugman has looked at the TIPS Spread, (top pic) basically the spread between the interest demanded by bond buyers on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and regular Tressuries, and notes that recent widening of the gap between the two interest rates is because the rates for TIPS has fallen, as opposed to the rates for normal treasuries having gone up, which is kind of the opposite of what you would expect if the bond market was pricing in inflation.

In terms of international trade, we are seeing that the GDP of the Euro Zone has gone positive, and the US trade deficit jumped in September, (bottom pic) both of which indicate improvements in international commerce.

Basically, this news drove the dollar down, because traders were less interested in a safe haven, and oil fell to $76.35/bbl on Thursday’s strong inventory numbers.

Economics Update

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Unemployment, H/t Calculated Risk

Today is Jobless Thursday, and new jobless claims fell to 503,000, down from 514,000 (revised from 512K_) the lowest since January, with the 4 week moving average falling to 519,750 from last week’s 524,250, and continuing claims fell to 5.63 million.

This is good news, but we need to be down to about 400K a week to be in jobless recovery, as opposed to “job-loss recovery”, mode, (see graph pr0n, right) so there is still a way to go.

I would note that the metrics that involve moving physical objects, like port and truck traffic, and this week’s report on rail traffic from the AAR are still week. with traffic in October down 15.3% from a year ago, and down 0.3% from September.

It looks like bad news for the monoliner bond insurers is heating up, with French bond insurer CIFG is on a path to an insolvency filing.

In real estate, mortgage applications hit a 9-year low, despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage fell again.

Additionally, we have dueling headlines, with CNBC saying, “Foreclosures Fall Again,” (true, though the call the improvement “fleeting”) but Bloomberg saying that, “U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surpass 300,000 for 8th Straight Month.” (also true.

Your call as to hed is the right one.

Meanwhile, there was an auction for 30 year Treasuries, and prices fell, because….Hell, I don’t know why they fell….Maybe inflation concerns, since the 3 and 10-year auctions were fairly well received.

Then we have our last bit, energy and currency, and oil fell, largely on an unexpectedly high inventory numbers, and the dollar rose, as investors looked for a safe haven.

Economics Update

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The Misery Index Continues to Rise
H/t My Budget 360

Today will be a slow news day, because everyone is waiting on the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement tomorrow afternoon.

I think that the big news is that Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has bought the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railroad, betting on recovery while further reducing his stake in Moody’s Investors Service.

Warren Buffet does not invest in things that he cannot get his head around, which is why he missed the dot com implosion, he couldn’t figure out how they could make money.

So now, he is dumping a financial company for rail, which implies to me that he sees a lot more trouble ahead for the banking industry, even as the economy recovers, and the demand for goods and services increases.

This is further reinforced by the September new factory orders rising by 0.9%.

Also the numbers for automobile sales were remarkably good, considering the “cash for clunkers” sales hangover.

There was strong sales growth for and strong October sales numbers from Ford, GM, Nissan, Hyundai and Kia, while sales for Toyota and Honda were basically flat.


Bummer of a birth mark, Chrysler

As for Chrysler, well…..”Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.

BTW, if you’ve been reading the financial press, you may not that they are touting a 4.4% increase in the MIT Center for Real Estate’s transaction-based index (TBI) index for the 3rd quarter.

One should note, as Calculated Risk does, that this is not the But this isn’t the monthly Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), which actually showed a drop.

This is an index of, “commercial properties sold by major institutional investors,” and these institutional investors are likely avoiding the distressed properties like the plague.

It should be noted that things are still bad, with business bankruptcy filings rising 7% in October, a change from the drops in filings in August and September.

Gold surges to an all-time high – Nov. 3, 2009: “

Here’s a bonus for the gold bugs, gold hit a new high, $1,084.90/oz (troy) after the Reserve Bank of India announced that it was bought 200 metric tonnes of gold from the IMF. (What’s up with this? Really, I have no clue.)

In energy and currency, both oil and the dollar rose today.

Economics Update

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Too True!
H/t Calculated Risk,
The Artist should have his website up shortly


Fannie Mae Single Family Delinquencies..OUCH

You know with this recession being over and all, maybe someone should tell the consumer, because consumer spending fell by 0.5% in September, the biggest drop in 9-months.

So consumers are skittish, as a new consumer sentiment survey, this time the Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment Survey, fell in October, down to U Michigan survey, 70.6 from 73.5 in September.

So, that’s like 3 different consumer sentiment surveys that I’ve seen in the past 3 days, one up, and two down.

You have permission to be confused.

There are still a lot of people hurting out there, as shown by the Fannie Mae single family delinquency numbers for August. (see graph pr0n)

I am not seeing even a smidgen of a moderation there.

In the central bank world, the banks appear to be slowly walking back from the extreme measures that they took a year ago, with the Federal reserve re-instituting regulations that it suspended which allowed banks to supply capital to affiliates, which is generally a no-no, and the Bank of Japan is slowly pulling out of the credit markets.

Basically, they are trying to slow-walk their quantitative easing (printing money) measures.

It does not mean that they will be raising rates soon, but it does mean that there is a very gradual tightening of money going on.

In any case, the consumer spending numbers have rattled the markets, pushing US treasuries higher.

In stocks, the VIX, an index of stock volatility spiked upward by 24%, which indicates that market participants are expecting major swings in the stock market.

The bearish news today also pushed oil down, on demand concerns, and pushed the dollar up, on a flight to safety.

Here’s a Shocker

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It appears that Bank of America and its subsidiary Countrywide Home Loans are routinely destroying mortgage documents:

Bank of America and Countrywide Home Loans destroyed mortgage documents, and “recreate” them by “insert(ing) data as they see fit,” to cover up their own failure to keep records – or their fraud – according to a federal RICO class action.

“To cover up the servicing mistakes and fraud and misrepresentation in the servicing of a consumer escrow, Defendants ‘recreate’ letters, insert data as they see fit, and fail to produce the entire HUD complaint form. This way, a consumer is left in the dark about the fraud that occurred to them,” the complaint states.

Lead plaintiff Kim Gorham says that when she sent a letter seeking information about her escrow account, she was informed that it had been “destroyed by a letter opener.”

After repeated requests, Gorham, who is blind, received her purported escrow analysis, but it was “100 percent illegible,” according to the complaint. The defendants knew that Gorham was legally blind, the complaint states.

She says that getting a “clear and concise” statement from the defendants has been an “impossible task.”

Countrywide routinely responded to customers’ requests for records by claiming they were “unavailable or destroyed,” according to the complaint.

The lawsuit alleges that the records were destroyed, “in an attempt to suppress damaging information.”

While not every lawsuit has merit, and a defendant should be presumed innocent, this certainly justifies a hearty, “Hoocoodanode?”

BoA will be paying for acquiring Countrywide for decades to come.

Economics Update

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Employment Chart H/t Calculated Risk

Home Vacancy, Home Ownership Rates, and Rental Vacancy Rates Also Courtesy of Calculated Risk


Some Improvement on Homeowner Vacancy Rates


Note that the Rental Vacancy Rate is an All Time High

Thursday is the new jobless day, and new unemployment claims were basically flat, falling from 531,000 initial claims to 530,000. The 4 week moving average, a generally better metric, was down to 526,250, from the previous week’s 532,250, and continuing claims fell to 5,797,000 down 148,000 from last week’s 5,945,000.

All in all, generally good news.

Additionally, US GDP increased at a 3.5% annual rate in the 3rd, which is a solid, though not stellar, growth rate.

By way of example, the recovery in the early 1980s was around 7% for a full year.

There is also the question about how much of this was driven by cash for clunkers driven auto sales, and the first time home buyer’s tax credit.

The former has expired, and the is due to expire, though I would only give it a 1:2 chance that Congress won’t renew it.

In any case, the 30-year fixed mortgage was basically flat this week.

The market’s reaction to the GDP news was as expected.

There was movement from safety to higher rates of return, which drove US Treasuries down, and their yields up, and the Dollar fell.

Anticipation of a recovery also drove oil higher, to back above $80/bbl.

Your Moment of Schadenfreude

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!So, it looks like yet another organization has had to downsize. It’s moving out of its headquarters, in the heart of Washington, DC, which they moved into about a year ago, because it’s too expensive for them now.

Who is this organization? Why it’s the Mortgage Bankers Association, of course, who have discovered that their new $76 million dollar digs are no longer affordable:

Since the purchase in May 2008, the U.S. economy has suffered one of the most severe recessions in a century, and the residential and commercial real estate markets have materially deteriorated. These factors, coupled with a challenging leasing environment, led the MBA Board to conclude that continued ownership of 1331 L Street was economically imprudent, and over the long term would impair MBA’s ability to continue providing our members with MBA’s full range of services.

My guess? That they got f$#@ed over by the fine print in their mortgage.

Economics Update

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Remember yesterday, when I said that consumer confidence fell? Well, that was the Conference Board. According to Nielsen, U.S. consumer confidence is up for the first time since 2007, as well as most of the rest of the world.

I think that both organizations conduct reputable surveys, but they got different answers because they asked different questions. This is something that one should consider for any survey.

In the world of slightly more objective metrics, we have durable goods orders rising for the 4th time in 6 months, which is good news, but New home sales unexpectedly fell.

I’m not sure why new home sales falling was “unexpected”. They are recorded when the contract is made, and not when they close, whereas existing home sales are recorded at closing, which means that people who had not bought new homes by the end of August, were really pushing it to qualify for the first time buyer tax credit, which require that the deal be closed by the end of November.

The end of the tax credit is why mortgage applications fell, even though rates fell.

In fact the divergence between new and existing home sales (more later) is a real indicator of how much that tax credit is goosing things.

In the world of central banks, the Norwegian central bank raised its benchmark rate, but the New Zealand bank kept its rate steady.

Of course, there is some apples and oranges here, because Norway raised its rate to 1.5%, and the Kiwis kept their rate steady at 2.5%.

In either case, the markets are not being optimistic, with oil falling below $78/bbl, and the dollar and yen strengthening on a flight to safety.

Economics Update

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Case Shiller Graph Pron (Both) Courtesy Calculated Risk


Woah: Las Vegas -55%, Phoenix -53%, Miami -46.9%

In the, “Well, this can’t be good,” category, we have the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell, with the numbers for the current economic situation falling to a 26 year low.

Still, we have seen the Case-Shiller home prices rising for the 4th straight month, though, with the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit, and the end of the home buying season, I do not expect this to continue.

In the old standbys, oil was largely unchanged, remaining just below $80/bbl, and the dollar rose on concerns about the consumer confidence numbers.

Economics Update

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Scary Picture of the Day:
Commercial Mortgage Back Security Amounts by Maturity Date


Or Maybe this is the Scary Picture, H/T Calculated Risk


Philadelphia Fed Index, State by State


Philadelphia Fed Index, Historical

As a Friday bonus, here is Barry Ritholtz, of The Big Picture schooling a blissfully ignorant ‘Phant Congressman on the Consumer Protection Agency:

Good news, everyone Existing home sales hit a two year high…Or maybe not…As Barry Ritholtz notes, there is an increase only when factoring seasonal adjustments, it fell otherwise, and those adjustments are problematic when under such circumstances.

Reinforcing Mr. Ritholtz’, and my, opinion of the state or real estate is the fact that Freddie Mac’s September delinquencies hit an all time high. (top graph)

More generally, we have the Philly Fed State Coincident Index continuing to show widespread weakness. (3rd and 4th graph down)

Also, we have the little employment tidbit that the
average unemployment period has hit 6 months, an all time high.

On the other side of the pond, UK GDP fell at twice the forecast rate, 0.4%, in the 3rd quarter.

Finally, both the dollar and the Pound Sterling rose against the Euro, and oil fell again, though it is still above $80/bbl.

Least Shocking Factoid of the Day

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It turns out that the Federal Housing Administration is ill-equipped to handle the explosion in mortgage loans that it is handling as a result of the private banks pulling back:

The Federal Housing Administration may be under-equipped to manage its exploding market share, according to an internal audit released last week. The report gave the FHA poor marks for its steps to screen lenders that are allowed to sell loans backed by the federal agency.

The FHA’s market share has grown sharply as the private mortgage market collapsed over the past two years, and the FHA now insures around one-quarter of all U.S. mortgages, up from around 2% in 2006. The FHA doesn’t actually make loans, and instead insures lenders against losses. To make FHA-backed loans, lenders and brokers must apply to the FHA to become certified by the agency.

The audit, by the inspector general for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, found that the agency was under-equipped to manage a big inflow in applications by lenders to make FHA-backed loans. The number of FHA-approved lenders more than tripled in 2008 to around 3,300 from 1,000 in 2007.

Gee, you think?

The people what cheated honest folks during the housing boom are going where the money is.

It’s another example of why the entire 60+ year focus on supporting home ownership of our government should be abandoned.

It gives us suburban sprawl, global warming, housing bubbles, mortgage fraud, and various other mishugas, all of it bad….He said from his home, which he bought with a mortgage, in a suburb of Baltimore, MD.

Hoocoodanode?

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So it turns out that the industry gave us the phony property assessment to qualify for home mortgages is low fraudulently employing the tax credit for first-time home buyers:

The Internal Revenue Service is examining more than 100,000 suspicious claims for the first-time home-buyer tax break, another sign of potential trouble for the soon-to-expire program.

I am gobsmacked that realtors and mortgage brokers might game the system.

More Fun With the Mortgage Racket

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Calculated Risk Loan Securitization Diagram
Or Maybe a Description of N-Dimensional Space

Here’s a factoid that should surprise no one, securitized loans 500% more likely to be delinquent.

That a loan that you planned to offload on some poor schlub was executed with less due diligence than one you planned to hold onto, in part or in full, for the life of the loan.

Hoocoodanode?

In any case, it looks like that merry-go-round may be coming to an end, because it’s beginning to look like the Kansas decision that said that the electronic database of mortgages, MERS, has no standing in a foreclosure matter, which means that no one knows who has standing in a mortgage matter for about ½ of the mortgages out there is expanding, though I am not entirely sure whether or not this directly applies to MERS, but in Massachusetts, a ruling throwing out thousands of foreclosures has been reaffirmed, and it is clear that the Judge will have none of the banks counter arguments:

Despite the lender’s attempt to convince him otherwise, Judge Long came out (again) in favor of consumers:

The issues in this case are not merely problems with paperwork or a matter of dotting i’s and crossing t’s. Instead, they lie at the heart of the protections given to homeowners and borrowers by the Massachusetts legislature. To accept the plaintiffs’ arguments is to allow them to take someone’s home without any demonstrable right to do so, based upon the assumption that they ultimately will be able to show that they have that right and the further assumption that potential bidders will be undeterred by the lack of a demonstrable legal foundation for the sale and will nonetheless bid full value in the expectation that that foundation will ultimately be produced, even if it takes a year or more. The law recognizes the troubling nature of these assumptions, the harm caused if those assumptions prove erroneous, and commands otherwise.

Judge Long also had some choice words for lenders:

[T]he problem the [lenders] face (the present title defect) is entirely of their own making as a result of their failure to comply with the statute and the directives in their own securitization documents… What the plaintiffs truly seek is a change in the foreclosure sale statute (G.L. c. 244, § 14), which can only come from the legislature.

I think that the courts are looking at the situation, and deciding that the lenders and securitizers are people with huge legal resources who chose to ignore the law because of the cost, and that property law has developed over the past few century and so is very specific regarding the formalities of documentation for a good reason, just look at historical accounts of theft of deeds, forged property papers, etc.

In any case, I would also point you to the following document, which shows how many of these property transactions are actually fraudulent, with a person acting as an agent for both the seller and the buyer, non existent signatures, false notarization, etc.

Foreclosure Fraud – Guide to Looking up Public Records for Fraud
You can find the author’s blog here.