Category: Real Estate

Economics Update

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Commercial Real Estate Prices


Home Builder Confidence Graph Pron Courtesy Calculated Risk

Ummm…If you think that the real estate implosion is done, then you haven’t been following commercial real estate (CRE), where prices fell 3% in August, about a 42% annual rate,* though the year over year decline was “just” 32%, and it’s down 41% from its peak in 2007.

Remember, commercial mortgages typically come due after 5 years, so we are going to see a lot of folks defaulting on CRE mortgages as their time comes up, because they will be under water.

It’s no wonder that the National Association of Home Builders’ Confidence Index has fallen, particularly when juxtaposed with the expiration of the let’s reinflate the bubble first time home buyer’s tax credit at the end of November.

Note that to qualify for the credit, you must close before November 30, which means that if you buy now, you are starting to cut it close.

Still investors seem to be sanguine about economic prospects, as they are pulling out of US Treasuries and the dollar while crude oil hit a 1-year high.

*The joys of compound interest. 3% a month over 12 months is not 36%, it’s 1.0312=1.42=42%.

When Policy Creates Stupidity

David Stevens, HUD’s Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner, basically the head of the Federal Housing Administration, has drawn a line in the sand against legislation increasing the minimum downpayment for an FHA loan from 3.5% to 5%.

This is the same FHA, that has had its reserves sucked dry by increasing defaults on its mortgage (here and here), and now they are fighting against making their loans less likely to default.

The reason given? That, “limiting the pool of eligible home buyers could dampen a fragile housing recovery.”

This is an extension of two largely bipartisan policies:

  • The federal government has been pushing home-ownership aggressively for decades.
  • A desperate attempt to re-inflate the housing bubble.

Both policies have proven disastrous, but decisions are still being made on this basis.

It should be noted that this is the same FHA was spitting in the face of sanity for some time by allowing “seller funded downpayment assistance loans”, where the seller raised the price of the home in order to lend the buyer the money for the downpayment (!). It was called the Down-payment Assistance Program (DAP).

This procedure is one of the reasons that they are in a pickle now, because it made it too easy for people who could not afford house payments to buy a house.

Thankfully, Congress made this illegal, and they are now looking at a further tightening of lending standards, but just as in the case the DAP, they are fighting the change tooth and nail.

Shoot Me, I Agree with Fred Hiatt

With the exception of the Wall Street Journal editorial, I can think of no OP/ED section in the country that contains more ignorance, flat out lies, and sociopathic ideation than that of the Washington Post.

That being said, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and the Post is right when they argue against additional aid to bolster housing prices.

Here is the money quote:

The financial crisis was partly the result of years of government-encouraged over-investment in residential real estate. When will the federal government start working on an exit strategy and a new, more rational housing policy — one in which individual homeownership occupies a central, but less heavily subsidized, position?

I would note that they were big into Bush’s “Ownership Society”, which included a lot of government subsidies for home ownership, so it is not unreasonable to think that the reason that they oppose current measures, and supported old measures, is because IOKIYAR* is a way of life for these folks.

*It’s OK If You Are a Republican.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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Unemployment Numbers, Actual v. Seasonably Adjusted


Philly Fed Graph Pr0n Courtesy Calculated Risk


NY Fed Graph Pr0n Courtesy The Bonddad Blog

So, Seasonally adjusted first time unemployment claims fell to 514,000, the lowest level since January, the 4 week moving average fell by 9K to 531,500, and continuing claims fell 75K to 5.99 million, the first time that the number has been below 6 million in 6 months.

Well, sort of anyway. As Brad Delong notes, the non-seasonally adjusted number actually went up:

Unemployment Insurance claims rose from 452,000 last week to 504,000 this week, but the seasonal adjustment factor fell from +72,000 to +10,000, leaving seasonally-adjusted claims falling from 524,000 to 514,000.

Considering the strangeness of the times that we are currently going through, this does mean that the SA numbers have a bit of flakiness.

Still these numbers, as well as the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve activity indices are definitely trending better.

The reason that I think that this is a pause, rather than a recovery, is because the underlying problems remain unresolved, with foreclosures hitting an all time high in the 3rd quarter.

About 1 out of 136 homes got a foreclosure notice in the past quarter.

That along with the fact that the CPI numbers are showing that “Owners’ Equivalent Rent” is falling, which implies that home prices have even farther to fall before the rent/own ratio is back to where it should be imply to me that the real estate crash is still on the down slope.

Additionally, it’s clear that consumers are still stretched, with Capital One credit card defaults rising in September.

30 year fixed mortgage rates remain below 5%, though they are up a bit this week.

In energy, oil is now at a 2009 high, and in currency, the
dollar rose against the Yen, but fell against the Pound Sterling and Euro.

This Could Destroy Mortgage Securitization as We Know It

I guess that I am over a week late to this game, but there has been a very significant case in Kansas that could completely reshape the fact of mortgage securitization.

Basically, the Kansas Supreme Court has ruled that the Mortgage Electronic Registration System (MERS), which is basically an electronic yellow pages for securitized mortgages, has no standing in foreclosure cases.

Considering that MERS records about ½ of the mortgages in the US, this is a very big deal.

While the precedent only applies to Kansas, it’s a state court after all, it is likely that their decision might influence other courts in other state:

The development of “electronic” mortgages managed by MERS went hand in hand with the “securitization” of mortgage loans – chopping them into pieces and selling them off to investors. In the heyday of mortgage securitizations, before investors got wise to their risks, lenders would slice up loans, bundle them into “financial products” called “collateralized debt obligations” (CDOs), ostensibly insure them against default by wrapping them in derivatives called “credit default swaps,” and sell them to pension funds, municipal funds, foreign investment funds, and so forth. There were many secured parties, and the pieces kept changing hands; but MERS supposedly kept track of all these changes electronically. MERS would register and record mortgage loans in its name, and it would bring foreclosure actions in its name. MERS not only facilitated the rapid turnover of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, but it has served as a sort of “corporate shield” that protects investors from claims by borrowers concerning predatory lending practices.

….

The real parties in interest concealed behind MERS have been made so faceless, however, that there is now no party with standing to foreclose. The Kansas Supreme Court stated that MERS’ relationship “is more akin to that of a straw man than to a party possessing all the rights given a buyer.”

What this means is that the original lender, who sold the loan and transferred the title, has no standing, and that MERS has no standing, since they are not the title holder, and that the owner cannot actually be determined, since it has been abstracted into a sort miasma of Mortgage backed securities.

So in many cases, no one has standing to foreclose on the house, at least not in Kansas. (insert Toto joke here).

Matt Tiabbi, in his always amusing style describes this as, “Waking up to discover the mortgage market was a giant criminal enterprise.”

Barry Ritholtz notes another feature of MERS, that, “MERS also acts as a shield, making it all but impossible for many borrowers to deal directly with whoever happens to be holding their mortgage at the moment, which is why, to a large degree that I think it exists, so that you can f%$# over the homeowner, and they have no one to sue, so this is not a bug, it’s a feature, only, with the prices of homes falling, it’s become a bug.

While MERS does technically save some transaction costs by ignoring about 500 years of property laws by not requiring the physical transfer of a title, the real advantage here is that it means that the investors have become completely insulated from, and completely passive to, the realities of the underlying mortgage.

As Karl Denninger summarizes it rather pithily:

They [MERS] may as well have said “we have decided that we can abrogate state law with impunity.” Oh wait – they did, didn’t they?

Sorry folks, life doesn’t work that way.

If state law requires an unbroken chain of recorded assignments in order to document ownership of a mortgage and thus standing to foreclose, MERS cannot override this state law by fiat.

Can this be fixed on a case by case basis? Absolutely.

If you were someone who recorded and researched titles to property, given enough time and effort, could track down the paperwork (which is all electronic and does not exist), and then get the original paperwork, or a certified copy (like they do with so-called “original” birth certificates), and then get each and every person to whom the title was assigned over the life of the loan, you should be able to do it, except, or course, this information is not there is a coherent way, because it was considered to be inconvenient to keep.

But remember, this is what you would need to do each and every time that someone defaulted on a mortgage.

You are probably looking at something in the low 5 figure dollar range, and probably something in excess of 90 days, just to find out who has standing, which makes the foreclosure even more ruinously expensive.

Economics Update

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Retail Sales, Courtesy Calculated Risk


DJIA Since Late 1998

As much as I think that the crossing of arbitrary numbers is bullsh#@, and I think that covering the daily swings of the market is bullsh#@, and I think that the Dow Jones is perhaps an even bigger load of bullsh#@, the fact that the DJIA topped 10,000 today is the obvious lede in today’s economics news.

The Dow closed at 10015.86, the highest number in over a year.

It should also be noted this makes the return on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 10 years roughly 0%.

I still think that this is a dead cat bounce, fueled largely by the Federal Reserve printing money and laundering it into the stock market through the banks.

It appears that the Federal Reserve is similarly dubious about the meaning of the recent rally, as the newly released FOMC Minutes make notes about “Considerable Uncertainty” about the strength of the recovery, once the stimulus package wraps up.

When one looks at things like falling retail sales in September with the expiration of “cash for clunkers”, (though the number did beat expectations) and US business inventories falling in August, there is little sign that all this money doing anything but creating an equities bubble.

In real estate, we are seeing mortgage applications fall again as rates for the 30 year fixed mortgage head back above 5%.

The energy and currency markets are ecstatic about breaking the 10K barrier, which drove oil above $75/bbl for the first time in almost exactly a year, and because people are optimistic, and hence no longer looking for a safe haven, the Dollar weakened to $1.4924:€1.0000, the lowest number in 14 months.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

So, let me get this straight, the latest foreclosure prevention program from the Treasury involves evicting people from their homes:

HAFA already holds the support of Fannie, according to a VP at the agency, Eric Schuppenhauer, who believes the new program allows borrowers in imminent default to “make a graceful exit” from their home. HAFA will keep the stigma associated with foreclosure away from the borrowers, he added, and help keep communities intact.

Maggiano adds that HAFA will offer financial incentives to both servicers and borrowers, and associated secondary investors, in order to facilitate a short sale or deed in lieu of the property.

So, this is sensible policy, while giving bankruptcy judges the power to cram down mortgages, like the do for almost every other sort of debt is evil socialism, or maybe a bad hair day, or something bad.

Huh?

H/t Atrios

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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Foreclosures hitting high end homes


Hotel Pulse Index


Baltic Dry Index, a Measure of Shipping Demand, Courtesy Barry Ritholtz

You know, there are very few guaranteed money makers, but one is owning baseball club, and the Chicago Cubs have just filed for bankruptcy, which says something about the state of the economy.

I know that this is really an artifact of Sam Zell’s completely idiotic business model, which seemed to be:

  1. Collect Underpants
  2. ?
  3. Profit

Except, of course, Zell was collecting short term loans, rather than underpants.

Of course, it’s not only big debtors like Zell who are getting into trouble. You are seeing foreclosures increasing among more expensive homes, which gives the lie to the constant refrain from many in the right wing that it’s all the fault of those n*gg*rs irresponsible borrowers.

It’s going to get worse, and it’s likely to create another crisis if Wells-Fargo’s numbers on Option ARMs carry across the industry, which are unbelievably grim:

“Several of our investors have questioned the current loss severity in light of negative amortization and home price decline,” researchers wrote in the report. “Our analysis suggests that option ARM loss severity will likely range between 60% and 70% provided home prices have stabilized.”

So 60+% of the option ARM are expected to go bad, even if house prices are not falling any further.

We are also seeing a continued drop in hotel activity, which implies that both consumer and corporate travel remain moribund.

The bottom piece of chart pr0n is the Baltic Dry Index, basically an index of shipping costs, though it is also a very good proxy for shipping demand, and this appears to indicate that the need for shipping, and hence the level of international trade, is still well off.

We are some seeing some interesting activity in US Treasuries now, with bonds rising, and their yields thus falling, on the expectation that the Fed will print more money and that inflation will remain low, but Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are also showing signs of expanded demand, which implies that at least part of the bond market is betting on increased inflation in the relatively near term.

We have some good news, in that the recession appears to be well and truly over…..In New Zealand, with retail sales jumping there.

This would explain why both the $NZ and the $Aus rose significantly yesterday….Well, that and the fact Australia’s central bank raised rates last week.

The US dollar was otherwise mixed, weaker vs. the Euro, but up vs. the Pound Sterling and Yen.

Oil rose yesterday too, as a result of a combination of cold weather in the US and optimism about the economy.

Economics Update (Catching Up)

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Unemployment Claims, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Consumer Credit, Courtesy of EconomPic


Office Vacancies, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Office Investment, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Strip Mall Vacancies, Courtesy Calculated Risk

So, we have some news on the unemployment front, with new unemployment claims falling to 521,000, a 33,000 drop, with the 4 week moving average falling 9K to 539,750, and continuing claims falling by 72K to 6.04 million.

We also have some good news from Australia has become the first G-20 central bank to raise its benchmark rate, by 25 basis points (¼%) to 3.25%.

My guess is that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) is premature in this action, as is generally the case with first movers coming out of a recession, but it means that the next central bank will likely be correct, or at least less wrong, as the second movers, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, who both kept their rates unchanged, generally are in such things.

Still, 3¼% is pretty damn low by historical standards.

It could be that Australia’s rate hike may force other central banks’ hands though, as their rate increase appears to have pushed prices down, and yields up, on US Treasuries.

We also saw retail sales rising for the first time in over a year in September, and the Institute for Supply Management has released its Non Manufacturing Index, which rose to 40.9, up from 48.4 in August, and the first time that it has been above 50, meaning expansion, as opposed to that whole 2nd derivative is positive thing, for the first time in 11 months.

So, it appears that there is some sort of recovery in the works, assuming that something else bad does not happen, like US apartment vacancy rates hitting a 23-year high and rents falling, consumer credit continuing to contract, CRE taking a hit as office vacancies go up as rents go down, along with strip mall vacancies hitting a 17 year high, and wholesale inventories falling in August.

Much of what worries me is real estate, though it has to be said that mortgage applications have risen as the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage has fallen to 4.87%(!).

It does appear that the good economic news, along with the Australian rate hike, has had an impact on currencies and energy, with oil rising above $71/bbl, and the dollar falling on both an increased risk appetite, and downward pressure from the Aussie rate hike.

As to how much is optimism, and how much is the rate hike, the fact that gold hit a new high, and gold is typically seen as a hedge against uncertainty leaves me inclined to lean toward the pessimistic view, but then again I always lean toward the pessimistic view.

Economics Update

Well, notwithstanding the “green shoots” that every fool (Ben Bernanke) is crowing about Consumer Confidence fell to 53.1 in September, down from 54.5 (revised) in August, and well below the predicted 57.0.

While this may not effect spending for the Christmas holiday, it does look like it’s putting a crimp in Halloween spending, with consumers planning to spend about 20% less this year.

Of course, we are still seeing some good news, such as the Case-Shiller home price index rising for the 3rd straight month, but, as Barry Ritholtz notes, it’s still down 13.3% for the year.

I would also add, that these are seasonally adjusted numbers, which really make no sense when a market is as out of whack as this one is, it’s YoY that gives meaningful data.

We also have the Chicago Fed’s National Activity index falling in September, to -.90, from August’s -0.54, indicating further contraction.

Overseas, we are seeing more good news though, with consumer confidence in Germany increasing to a 16 month high, and the Brazilian central bank being confident enough that it is starting to clamp back down on credit, which means that they are worried about inflation.

One hopes that the Brazilian bankers are not jumping the gun here.

In insurance, we have a bit of nostalgia, with the monoliner insurers popping up their head again, as S&P cut both MBIA, Inc. and MBIA Insurance credit ratings, to BB-minus and BB-Plus respectively.

Both ratings are below investment grade. (i.e. junk)

In energy, it looks like the consumer confidence numbers have driven oil prices down, to $66.71/bbl, and it looks like natural gas prices are about to fall off a cliff, because the salt domes, depleted oil fields, and aquifers used to story the fuel have reached capacity, meaning that anything pumped has to be sold, and delivered as soon as it leaves the ground.

Gasoline prices are continuing their fall too.

Meanwhile, the dollar is up, largely on increased worries about the economy, though the rate cut by Russia’s central bank has also made the USD more attractive to investors.

Economics Update

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Blah, blah, blah!

Well, let’s lead with housing sales, since it gives me an opportunity to start with one of my pet peeves: Journalists pumping up news as better than it is.

CNN leads with New home sales rise for 5th straight month in August,which sounds good, sales went from a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 429K, up from July’s 426K, so what’s the problem?

Well the problem is that the forecast was for 440K, and a 3K gain is about ¾%, nothing to phone home about, and as Calculated Risk so ably notes when he looks at the numbers and declares that sales were flat, “This is a slight increase from the revised rate of 426 thousand in July (revised from 433 thousand).” (emphasis mine)

So there was an increase relative to the revised figure, but a drop when compare initial figure to initial figure, and in any case, an honest description for this would be “flat”, or “down slightly”, not a hed screaming a 5th straight month of increase.

In either case, we are still seeing week demand for manufactured goods, as evidenced by the 2.4% drop in durable goods orders, though the Truck Tonnage Index rose in in August, which compares to the drop in rail traffic I reported 2 days ago.

In the world of finance, banks losses in big mofo loans, the so-called syndicated loans, tripled in 2009.

In energy, revelations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions pushed oil up, though it is still well below $70/bbl, and in currency, the dollar fell broadly, hitting a 7½ month low vs the Yen, and remaining near the 1-year low vs the Euro that it hit a few days ago.

Economics Update

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Unemployment Graph Pr0n Courtesy of Calculated Risk

Exhaustion Rate Graph Pr0n Courtesy of zero hedge

Initial claims for unemployment fell this week again, down 21K to 530K, but that’s because unemployment claims from last week were revised to 551. The first count was 545K, so the apples to apples delta is 15K, not 21K (I love how it always seems to work out this way).

The 4 week moving average fell too, 553.5K, down from 546.5K, and continuing claims fell 123K, to 6.138m from last weeks 6,261m.

Note, however, that continuing claims do not count folks who are on extended benefits, or who have exhausted benefits, and that the exhaustion rate has hit a new record, with 52.40% of all people filing for unemployment exhausting their benefits before they find another job.

In real estate, existing home sales fell for the first time in 5 months, and we are hearing dire warnings about a shadow inventory of 7 million foreclosures which have yet to hit the market, either because the lenders are hip deep in foreclosures, and the process is proceeding slowly, or because they are holding off to avoid selling into a down market.

The down housing market has been good for treasuries, with prices rising, and yields falling, as people flock to their relative safety.

The quest for safety has investors running back to dollars, driving the greenback up, and pushing oil down below $66/bbl (!).

Someone is not believing in recovery here.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

ABI Graph Pr0n H/t Calculated Risk

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in August, the 5th straight month, which implies very strongly that the recession ended in July or August.

I don’t really see this as a “recovery for the rest of us.” Even the most optimistic forecasters see a slow recovery in unemployment, and real-estate, which took us down in the first place, looks like it will do so again, this time on the commercial (CRE) side too.

We are seeing mortgage delinquencies hitting 7.58%, up from 7.32% in July and a new record, and AIA’s Architectural Billings Index fell in August, which indicates that future activity is trending down in 9-12 months.

Additionally, the YoY price of CRE fell 27%, and rents are down too, everywhere.

Rents are falling at near rates not seen in nearly a ¼ cedntury on some of the most prestigious streets, 5th and Madison Avenues in New York, the Champs-Elysees in Paris, London’s New Bond Street, and Causeway Bay in Hong Kong,

This is a real problem because the mortgages on these properties are typically 5 years, and if the owner is under water at the end of their loan, they default, because they cannot rollover into a new loan.

Unlike a home loan, the owner cannot just sit tight.

It appears that the currency and the energy markets are concerned about this too, with Oil falling on demand concerns, and the dollar rising as investors look to a safe haven.

Remember When I Said “First Comes the Denial”?

Here, when I noted that the FHA was flat out denying that increased write-downs on loans would require a bailout?

My response was:

Next should come a statement of health, then a statement of robust health (or some synonym), and then comes the bailout.

Well, here we are, and the FHA is admitting that it will fall below the cash reserves required by legislation, but they are denying that it will require that they increase the fees that they charge on the loans, or that they get a bailout.

Instead they are planning to announce, “Several measures that should help the reserves rebound quickly.”

Yeah….Right, like that will work, though their decision to require future property valuations conform with the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), will go a long way toward fixing what continues to be a broken system where realtors whipsaw the appraisers, as the FHA is pretty close to the only game in town right now.

H/t Calculated Risk.

Economics Update

If This Doesn’t Make You Feel Like a Chump, then You are forgetting the “Ownership Economy” Hype
H/t Calculated Risk

Well, it’s Thursday, and that means that it’s new jobless claims day.

We are actually in a place where we can see the seasonally adjusted statistics have meaning, because we are past the auto plant shutdown in the dog days of Summer that actually happened in the spring.

Initial claims were 545,000, down 12,000 from last week’s upwardly revised 557,000, a drop of 12,000, but remember that if we compare initial numbers to initial numbers, we were at 550,000 last week, so the drop is only 5,000, not 12,000…..Anyone see a pattern?

The 4 week moving average, which is a less noisy metric, fell from 8,750 to 563,000, but note that anything at 400K or above is still bad news territory.

Continuing claims rose by 129K to 6.2 million, and that does not account for people who are exhausting their benefits.

As CR notes (link on graph pr0n) the fed has reported that household net worth has fallen $12.2 trillion, or about $40,000.00 for every man woman and child in the United States.

Of course the financial journalist are reporting that household net worth is up for the first time since Q3 of 2007, but this is almost entirely the recent bump in stock prices, which primarily benefits the top decile.

Still, we are seeing good news, with housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index both showing improvement.

Of course, part of this has to do with the fact that mortgage rates are way down, because the Federal Reserve is buying mortgage backed securities like they are going out of style, in order to keep those rates low.

I would also note that there just are not that many consumers out there. The UK again being a case in point. Yesterday, I mentioned that their unemployment had spiked, and today we discover that their retail sales fell 0.2%, as opposed to the forecast increase of o.1%.

People without jobs cannot buy stuff.

That’s why the Bank of Japan decided to keep its benchmark rate at essentially 0%, actually 0.1%, but that’s a f%$#ing rounding error.

In energy, oil fell slightly, to 72.47/bbl.

In currency, the dollar took a hit today, falling against both the Euro and yen, and the Canadian dollar rose to an 11 month high.

Economics Update

Home Builder Confidence

Industrial Production Utilization

Well, we got the inflation numbers in, the CPI rose 0.4% in August and fell 1.5% year over year.

I’m not sure whether to call this a sign of recovery (mild inflation) or of further problems (deflation).

I’d be tempted to go with the former, as both builder confidence and industrial production capacity utilization increased this past month (see pics), but that is from horribly low levels, and objectively, the levels are still horrible.

With UK unemployment hitting the highest level since 1996, would appear to cut the on the down side.

Mortgage applications fell last week, though some of that may come from the 4 day week because of labor day, and they are still well above the trough, though one wonders how long that will last once the tax credit for first time home buyers expires. (More on that later)

In energy, oil rose above $72/bbl on falling inventories.

Currency is getting interesting though, with the dollar falling to a 1 year low, largely on increases in optimism on the economy, but gold hit the highest level since March, 2008 $1,017.65/oz (Troy), and gold generally rises in times of pessimism and uncertainty?

Economics Update (a Day Late)

The University of Michigan survey showed an improvement in consumer sentiment, hitting 70.2, exceeding forecasts of 68.0.

In wholesale, inventories have fallen to a 3 year low, indicating that there is little push to restock, though wholesale sales actually rose.

In retail, the fact that video game sales fell for the 6th straight month is worrying: When consumers, specifically hard core video gamers, do not feel comfortable purchasing video games, they don’t feel comfortable purchasing anything.

Meanwhile across the pond(s), we have

Japan’s growth in Q2 being revised down to 2.3% from a 3.7% annualized rate, though domestic cargo volumes in Russian indicate a recovery is imminent there.

Meanwhile, in the folks with more petro-dollars than brains department, Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund, Istithmar World, has stopped making investments, probably because they are having problems covering their losses.

In real estate, repossessions dropped 12.7% in August, but foreclosure filings fell only 0.5% and the number of people defaulting.

My guess is that this is some of the banks out there are already overwhelmed with REOs and don’t want to acknowledge the bottom line hit, so they are letting things slide right now.

Oil falls below $70 on demand recovery doubts – Sep. 11, 2009:

Meanwhile crude oil finished the week below $70/bbl.

In currency, the dollar index, a basked of currencies against which the USD is measured, fell to a 1-year low, in the longest sting of losses in the index, 6 days, since March.

Finally, gold ended the day above $1000/ox (Troy), which might make for happy gold bugs, but I’m inclined to say that it is time to cash in and get Yen or Euro.

Cramdown Has Returned

And it is about bloody time.

Barney Frank has announced plans to reintroduce a bill to give bankrputcy judges the ability to modify mortgages, it appears that the banks got cocky, and promptly forgot promises of voluntary mortgage mods, as the picture (from here) shows.

It appears that members of Congress are shocked that banks are not willing to do mortgage mods, when they:

  • Cost them money.
  • Require them to post the losses to their balance sheets immediately, as opposed to marking them to face value for the next few years.

Campaign contributions and lobbyists are a much better investment than helping people.