Category: Recession

Great Googly Moogly

The latest monthly jobs report is out, and is sucks wet farts from dead pigeons. Only 68,000 new jobs were created, the March and April numbers were revised down to 78K, the unemployment rate (U-3) went up by a a tenth of a point to 8.2% (U-6 rose by .3% to 14.8%), and long term unemployment rose.

Note that while the private sectors payroll was a “Meh” +87K, but government payrolls fell by 19,000.

So, while we American governmental entities aren’t going austerity crazy like the Brits, we are kind of slow walking austerity. (Something that Obama’s campaign seems to be bragging about)

The Institute for Supply Management’s latest manufacturing index is headed in the wrong direction as well.

But at least we’re not Yurp which sucks a lot worseworse, with Euro zone unemployment climing to 11%. (Thanks Angela)

It’s Jobless Thursday

And it’s good news, with initial claims falling by 27K to 365,000, beating estimates, and continuing and extended claims fell as well, though the less volatile 4-week moving average rose.

The real news on the economy though is the fact that Euro zone unemployment  hit a record high:

Rising unemployment and plunging business confidence in the euro area revealed the increasingly fragile state of the region’s economy on Wednesday, as voters in France and Greece prepare to deliver their verdict on austerity in Sunday elections.

Official figures showed that unemployment across the 17-member single currency zone increased by 169,000 in March, for the 11th consecutive month, to hit 17.37m. The unemployment rate was 10.9%, the highest level in its history.

Even in Germany, which has so far largely escaped unscathed from the downturn sweep of the labour market, unemployment began to tick up in March, though it remained at just 5.6% of the workforce.

There was also evidence that businesses are being hit by what many analysts expect to be a eurozone-wide recession. The manufacturing PMI for the zone in April – a measure of confidence among businesses – registered a sharp decline, from 47.7 to 45.9, the lowest since June 2009, and well below the 50 mark which signals growth.

BTW, in the US, consumer confidence to a 2 month low.

To quote Bette Davis, “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”

GPD Growth Slows

If people are planning on a robust recovery, they will be disappointed:

The economic recovery slowed more than expected early this year, raising fears of a spring slowdown for the third year in a row and giving Republicans a fresh opportunity to criticize President Obama’s policies.

The United States gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter, down from 3 percent at the end of last year, according to a preliminary report released Friday. It was the first deceleration in a year, but it was not nearly as severe as other setbacks in the last couple of years.

Yeah, it sucks, but not so badly, until Angela Merkel manages to accomplish her goal of blowing up Europe though a misguided push for austerity.

Yeah, Austerity Works

The UK is officially back in recession:

When David Cameron became PM, and announced his austerity plans — buying completely into both the confidence fairy and the invisible bond vigilantes — many were the hosannas, from both sides of the Atlantic. Pundits here urged Obama to “do a Cameron”; Cameron and Osborne were the toast of Very Serious People everywhere.

Now Britain is officially in double-dip recession, and has achieved the remarkable feat of doing worse this time around than it did in the 1930s.

Britain is also unique in having chosen the Big Wrong freely, facing neither pressure from bond markets nor conditions imposed by Berlin and Frankfurt.

Yep, the UK is now doing officially doing worse than it did in the great depression.

Why is anyone still listening to the austerity monkeys?

It’s Jobless Thursday!

Another disappointing week, last week was revised up, and initial claims this week were worse than forecast, 386K, down 2K from last week, only last week was revised up by 8K, with the 4-week moving average and continuing claim rising, though extended/emergency claims fell.

What I think we are seeing, and I think the fact that home sales fell in March reinforces this, is that the generally good economic news in the 1st quarter was (at least partially) an artifact of the unseasonably warm winter, which moved a lot of economic activity a few months earlier.

Basically, we saw time shifting, and thought that it was a recovery.

It’s Jobless Thursday

And the news is not good, 380K initial claims, up 13K, from last weeks numbers, which were revised up 10K, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 4,250 to 368,500, continuing claims falling 98K to 3.25 m, and emergency claims falling by 20.5K to 2.79m.

We’ve had some pretty good numbers since the beginning of the year, but we’ve also had an unprecedentedly mild winter, which has pushed a lot of “spring time” activities months earlier. See (Anthropogenic Climate Change)

The question now is how much did the good numbers in the first quarter of the year eat the economic activity now.

It’s Jobless Thursday!

Another really good week, with initial jobless claims falling 5,000 to 359,000, (well sort of, last week’s numbers were revised up from 348K to 364 K, so apples to apples is a little bump up), with the 4 week moving average fell 3,500 to 365K, with continuing claims falling by 41K to 3.34 million, and extended claims fell 79K to 3.24 million.

Of course, there is a proverbial turd in the punch bowl in all of this, which is that all of these figures are seasonably adjusted, and we’ve had the mildest winter in the United States pretty much ever so we might be seeing a lot or economic activity that would normally be in April or May.

I guess we’ll find out then.

Greece is Imploding

I’m serious. It looks like local scrip is breaking out all over the country as an alternative to the Euro:

In recent weeks, Theodoros Mavridis has bought fresh eggs, tsipourou (the local brandy: beware), fruit, olives, olive oil, jam, and soap. He has also had some legal advice, and enjoyed the services of an accountant to help fill in his tax return.

None of it has cost him a euro, because he had previously done a spot of electrical work – repairing a TV, sorting out a dodgy light – for some of the 800-odd members of a fast-growing exchange network in the port town of Volos, midway between Athens and Thessaloniki.

In return for his expert labour, Mavridis received a number of Local Alternative Units (known as tems in Greek) in his online network account. In return for the eggs, olive oil, tax advice and the rest, he transferred tems into other people’s accounts.

“It’s an easier, more direct way of exchanging goods and services,” said Bernhardt Koppold, a German-born homeopathist and acupuncturist in Volos who is an active member of the network. “It’s also a way of showing practical solidarity – of building relationships.”

Basically, we are seeing a wholesale flight from the regular economy, and the concept of the Greek nation state. (It’s also a repudiation of the EU, since it sets up a system where it’s impossible to purchase non-local products)

The Guardian presents this positively, but I see it as a step toward Greece, a barely function nation to begin with, moving in the direction of Somalia.

I’m increasingly coming to believe that the Euro currency experiment, and in particular German domination of this process will lead to another war in Europe (hopefully cold, and not hot) in the next decade, as my brother (Bear who swims) has predicted, .

It’s Jobless Thursday

And it was not particularly good news.

Initial claims rose by by 8,000 to 362,000, 10,000 more than forecast, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 250, continuing claims rising by 10K to 3.42 million, and extended claims rose 26.8K to 3.4 million.

Not great news, but still better than it was 6 months ago.

We should be getting the official NFP numbers tomorrow, but the ADP numbers were pretty good.

Of course, “pretty good” still means that we are looking at a decade before we return to trend.