Category: Russia

Georgian Fallout on Israel-Russian Relations

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Well, it looks like Israel-Russia relations are a little bit cool now, because of Israel’s arms sales to Georgia, though, as I mentioned earlier, the Israelis shut that down when they thought war was likely.

On the bright side, it appears that they will be holding talks on the middle east, which implies a continued relationship.

On the not so bright side, we have rumors of increased Russian arms sales to Syria, including the advanced long range S-300 system, though Syria has denied this.

We also have a report (Ynetnews, not sure of the quality of the source) that the US is pressuring Turkey to shut down the Israel Syria talks that it is hosting, because Syria took Russia’s side in the Russo-Georgian war.

It’s petty and stupid if true, and considering that we still have Condi Rice running state, I am therefore inclined to believe it.

Georgia Update

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It appears that the Russian pullout is in fact happening, though they are taking up stations in their buffer zones, and they blew up military installations on the way out.

The UN Security council is currently deadlocked, with the Russians demanding that force to reunify the provinces be specifically forbidden, and the US demanding that it not be, and that “Georgian territorial integrity” be specifically affirmed in the document.

I also heard (no link, radio report) rumors that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be declaring independence at some point in the near future.

Georgia News

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It appears that by late last yearIsrael scaled back arms sales to Georgia last year, because they saw a war between Georgia and Russia brewing.

Based on what I’ve read at this point, it appears that, with the South Ossetians, there was no one within 1500 km who did not know that the Georgians were preparing for an invasion of the breakaway province.

Meanwhile, Georgia is suffering economically, both as a result of transportation disruptions and a flight of foreign capital.

Meanwhile, in response to NATO’s downgrade of relations, the Russians have frozen cooperation with NATO, which includes things like anti-drug operations and supply routes to Afghanistan.

On the military side, while the Russian counter-offensive was clearly successful, there are accusations that the Russian Air Force was unprepared, with little or no effort made in the initial stages of the war to take out surface to air missile and radar sites.

Mikhail Gorbachev has written a blistering editorial excoriating the west and the western media, that he feels was in the pocket of Georgia.

It looks like the promised Russian pullout is procedeeding, albeit slowly, though Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili is claiming that the pullout is widening the occupation of Georgia.

I think that it’s clear at this point, despite Saakashvili’s fluent English and his Columbia University degree, which counts for way more than it should in US diplomacy, he’s just a bit…..well….nuts.

The Georgia Pullout

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I stand by my earlier assessment, that the Russians are pulling out, but doing so with all deliberate slowness.

In any case, it does appear that the Russians are determined to humiliate the Georgians, and their state security apparatus, as much as possible on the way out.

They still seem to be messing around in the main Georgian port of Poti, and they are maintaining that, “A 1999 document written up by the Joint Control Commission, an international body that monitored tensions in South Ossetia, gives peacekeepers access to a long piece of land that extends about nine miles into Georgian territory.”

This is about showing who is boss, which is immature, but at least no shots are being fired right now.

That being said, the Russians are suffering some diplomatic blow-back, with Ukraine offering NATO access to a former Soviet missile early warning station, and Poland signing a deal on installing the US ABM system.

Certainly these will be more noticed by the Russians than what will be a temporary downgrade of NATO-Russian relations, which is not going to last long, if just because cooperation with them on Iran is essential.

We have an interesting quote in this article about the US capitulating on NATO membership for Georgia:

“Russia has successfully burned Georgia’s NATO card,” said Sarah E. Mendelson, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Whatever the outcome, Russia has all but obliterated Georgia’s possibility of joining NATO, as it cannot belong to this alliance if it has unresolved border disputes.”

Let’s be clear. The Russians won.

Georgia Update

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Russia says that it is pulling troops out of Georgia, though Pentagon sources are disputing this.

My guess is that there is a withdrawal going on, the Russians don’t want to deal with an insurgency, but that it is proceeding with all deliberate slowness.

Aviation Week has analysis of the relative success of Georgian air defense systems (Paid Subscription Required), specifically of the SU Tu-22M3, and suggest that it was shot down because of Israeli aid in upgrading the Soviet era air defense systems.

Additionally, they note that the Georgian air defense system was less sophisticated, less networked, and less automated than the Syrian one, and as such, it may have been less vulnerable to the cyber attacks that were allegedly used by the Israelis when they struck the Syrian reactor complex.

Shades of Battlestar Galactica, the new one, not the old one.

As to the Su-25 losses, they suggest that these were shoulder launched SAMs, and I agree, as the Su-25 is really a close air support aircraft, which puts them in the sweet spot of such weapons.

Russians Knew of Coming Attack

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Writing at the Danger room, Galrahn notes the unbelievably rapid response time of the Russian navy to the invasion of South Ossetia.

Basically, the Black Sea fleet would have to have gotten underway within an hour of the invasion to make the time line.

The Russians knew that the attack was coming, and they knew when it was coming.

The FSB, or some other Russian TLA has thoroughly penetrated the Georgian security establishment.

South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Kosovo

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First, it appears that there is evidence of looting and burning by South Ossetian militias. It’s unclear how much of this is ethnic violence, and how much is simple opportunism.

The Russians are not doing a whole bunch about this right now, they are busy destroying the Georgian security infrastructure under their control, but it does appear that they have arrested some militia men.

This does parallel what happened in Kosovo following the expulsion of the Serbian army, though with the Russians in control, it’s likely to get worse than it was in Kosovo with NATO troops who were somewhat less tolerant of the activities of the KLA post liberation.

Meanwhile, Serbia is lobbying the UN to refer the matter of Serbian independence to the International Court of Justice, which is awkward for the US, who has to argue that Kosovo can and should be independent, but that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should not be.

What is Going on in Georgia

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I knew that Russia decimated the Georgian army, but I had no clue as to how totally completely they owned them:

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

So the Georgians have forsworn the use of force to get back the provinces, Russia has the right, for an indeterminate amount of time, to stay in Georgian territory, and take “additional security measures.”

Meanwhile, the Russians are telling George W. Bush and the Georgians to pound sand on the autonomous regions:

Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.

“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.

“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the UN Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

Georgia is going to be smaller in a few years.

More Confusion, and Stupidity On Georgia

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First, I think that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili realizes that he’s lost, and that his support is now crumbling. At least that’s my explanation for his increasingly erratic rhetoric, where he went on CNN, and talking about fighting to the “last drop of blood”.

He gambled, and he lost, and at best all he can hope for is that he manages to hold out until the next elections.

This is also explains why he claims that the US will take control of Georgian ports, a claim what was promptly refuted by the Pentagon, “We are not looking to, nor do we need to, take control of any air or sea ports to conduct this mission,” said Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman. (emphasis mine)

It’s also why he said that the humanitarian aid was a part of a greater military involvement:

But while Mr. Bush said the United States “stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that its sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected,” his remarks contained no hint of an American military role in Georgia, other than providing humanitarian assistance.

However, minutes after Mr. Bush’s comments, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia characterized the import of the American aid as “definitely an American military presence” and called it a “turning point.”

Needless to say, Bush’s statements that he wanted to convey, “unwavering support for Georgia’s democratic government,” are not helping the situation.

Putin is the last person on earth that I would want to bluff if he knew it was a bluff, and he knows that Bush’s bravado is just a bluff.

Needless to say, the only person desperate enough, or stupid enough to believe this is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

There is a Cease Fire in Georgia, Sort of

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It looks like there has been a cease fire accord signed between the Russians and the Georgians.

As to the net result of the accord, the Washington Post, being the paper that Bushies leak to when they want credibility (Moonie Times does not cut it), strongly suggests that Moscow capitulated to Western demands, because they were concerned about their role in international bodies.

I think that the reporting of the Los Angeles Times and the The Guardian, which see this as a Georgian capitulation.

The Georgian army has largely disintegrated, and the conditions of the terms are highly favorable to Moscow:

The key demands are that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force to resolve Georgia’s territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint “peacekeeping” contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces.

(emphasis mine)

The Russians are also maintaining their right to “additional security measures” until foreign monitors were in place.

This would support the reports that the Russians are still advancing (see also here, here, here, and here), and that the Russians had destroyed Georgian naval vessels.

Some of the reports had a convoy heading from Gori to Tbilisi, but this was denied by the Russian military, who said that they were, “Demilitarizing the area near the South Ossetia border so that Georgia could not launch new attacks.”

I don’t see the Russians entering Tbilisi, though I could see them setting up artillery in range of the city as a means of intimidation.

We are also getting reports of burining and looting in areas under Russian control.

It appears that the Russians are not doing this, but that Ossetian militias are, and the Russians are taking no action, to stop them.

Bad Idea, Barack

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Woah, this is a full metal pander:

Obama appeared to agree, saying, ‘I have consistently called for deepening relations between Georgia and trans-Atlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO, and we must continue to press for that deeper relationship.’

It was this sort of statement that encouraged Georgia to get its war on and level a city full of women and children.

Additionally, it makes him look weak, because it makes him look like he is triangulating and that McCain is taking the lead on foreign policy.

Georgia Daily Update

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First, let’s go meta and explain why no nation on earth should trust Bush and His Evil Minions™ in a diplomatic context:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also been noticeably absent on the diplomatic scene, having failed to interrupt her holidays to fly to Tbilisi in support of the Georgian government.

This is actually easily understood. She’s an academic, which means never allow reality to alter your view of the world, and never cut a vacation short.

In any case, the Russians have officially declared an end to military operations, though there is clearly some combat still going on.

Hopefully, it will die down in the next few days.

Of interest is the fact that Georgia must remove its troops from the area and sign a binding renunciation of force against both South Ossetia and Abhkazia.

If they don’t get that, then the Russians are saying, “no deal”, and if they do get that, then Saakashvili is done as a political force in Georgia.

I think that he’s done in any case.

Interestingly enough, I see a pattern of tribalism in this description of Georgian Mikheil Saakashvili’s comeuppance.

Specifically, it appears that much of his credibility in terms of the actions that he has taken, and the west’s view of him, come from the fact that he got his law degree at the George Washington University Law School, and when he purged the civil service and universities, he replaced them with other western trained personnel.

When I look at coverage he has received, and for that matter the coverage of other leaders of dubious records, it appears that those old school ties make a very big difference as to who the press covers what they do, particularly when it is less than savory.

Getting Georgia’s War On

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First, read Getting Georgia’s War On in The Nation, if just for the revelation that that Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze made an “investment call” to bank managers and analysts.

The original offensive had been planned for some time.

Additionally, it appears that Russia was the first to call a Security Council meeting, but their proposal, which called for both sides to , “renounce the use of force”, was rejected by Georgia, the US, and the UK.

I think that the best historical analogy out there is care of Attaturk:

1836 to 1848
Georgia = Mexico
Russia = The United States
South Ossetia = Texas

It really is clear that the Ossetians hate the Georgians, and that the desire for independence is very real, though the ability is only because of Russian support.

Meanwhile, Russia is rolling east from South Ossetia, and west from Abkhazia, and they are demanding the disarming of troops along both borders.

Again, this is calling on the the Kosovo precedent, and I think is a sign that one of the goals of the Russians is the elimination of the Georgian army as a meaningful force.

Certainly their capture Georgia’s Senaki City and enterry into Zugdidi Town, roughly 40km in Georgia from the Abkhazian border seems to confirm this.

On the bright side, Dmitry Medvedev has stated that the military operation in South Ossetia is nearly over, which should indicate a reduction of optempo shortly.

You can read a summary of official Russian losses, and they seem very light, though the loss of the Tu-22, by which I assume they mean Tu-22M Backfire, not the earlier Blinder, has to to hurt.

Jed Lewison notes that top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, is a paid lobbyist for a foreign government, the Republic of Georgia, he claims not to lobby for them any more, but his firm still gets fees from them, and that much of his lobbying were his highly successful efforts to turn McCain into an unthinking Georgia evangelist, though given McCain’s Russo-phobia, it probably took less than a golf game to do that.

Georgia on my Mind

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It appears that Georgia has “pulled out” of South Ossetia, though I think that any realistic assessment would say that the Georgian army was expelled from the breakaway province by the Russians.

In the Security council, it’s clear, for now at least, that Russia will not allow any resolution through that calls for a cease fire.

I would also note that Putin has described the Georgian assault on the capitol of South Ossetia as, “Genocide”, and it’s clear that he has his eyes on the precedent set in Kosovo, where crimes against humanity were used to justify the creation of Kosovo as an independent state.

Things are also heating up in the other break away region of Abkhazia, with Russian troops being sent there to reinforce the positions there, moving elements of its Black Sea fleet to the Abkhazian port Ochamchire, and there appears to be an assault on the Kodori Gorge, which was reconquered by Georgia in 2006.

Ukraine is saying that it may bar Russian ships that have participated in this operation from their ports for the duration of hostilities.

There are reports of a Russian Blockade of Georgia, which has been denied by the Russians…sort of:

Russian warships are not planning to block shipments of oil from Georgia’s Black Sea port of Poti, but reserve the right to search ships coming to and from it, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said on Sunday.

Also, it appears that the Russian navy sank a Georgian missile boat.

Honestly, the only sympathy I have for the Georgians is the very real possibility that Mikheil Saakashvili was led on by the US, much in the manner that Saddam Hussein was before the first Gulf War, because it is clear to me, and Thomas de Waal writing in the Guardian agrees, that this was largely the direct result of actions by Saakashvili

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili seems to care less about these people than about asserting that they live in Georgian territory. Otherwise he would not on the night of 7-8 August have launched a massive artillery assault on the town of Tskhinvali, which has no purely military targets and whose residents, the Georgians say, lest we forget, are their own citizens. This is a blatant breach of international humanitarian law.

Moscow cares as little about the Ossetians as it does the Georgians it is bombing, regarding South Ossetia as a pawn in its bid to bring Georgia and its neighbours back into a Russian sphere of influence. Ordinary South Ossetians have also been cursed by a criminalised leadership which would long ago have lost power had they not been the rallying point for defence against Georgia.

I think that it’s clear that Georgian calls for a cease fire will fall on deaf ears in Russia for a while, and we have a report that Russia is demanding the removal of Saakashvili, the article, in classic WaPo form describes him as having been democratically elected, but ignores the election fraud in the last election, along with brutality against the opposition and the destruction of an opposition TV station.

It also appears that the Russians are advancing past the borders of Ossetia. They appear to be advancing on the Georgian city of Gori.

Georgia Shells South Ossetian Capitol, Escalation Ensues

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I’m not sure why Georgia chose this time to start shelling South Ossetian capital of Tskhinval, but this sort of behavior has elicited the expected Russian response, and they have started sending additional “peacekeepers” to the region.

The Guardian has an interesting analysis, if just because it avoids the common wisdom available on a Google News search that somehow the Georgians shelling a city full of women and children is Russian aggression.

Their analysis is that this was a well planned offensive, and that they hoped to catch the Russians off balance, with Putin in Beijing for the Olympics, and it now appears that they were wrong:

Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive.

It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before – it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a measure of nationalist pride.

((emphasis mine)

It appears that the US has been aggressively supporting and training the Georgian army for some time, and this may have contributed to Saakashvili’s belief that he could get away with it.

I’m wondering if this isn’t a screw up, and that Bush and His Evil Minions™, particularly Cheney, might have been looking for something like this just before the election, for electoral benefit, but their boy in Tbilisi pulled the trigger too early.

Russia Looking to Move Bombers to Belarus

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They are looking at basing missiles and bombers in Belarus the anti-missile installation in Poland.

It’s not surprising. As I’ve said before, the location is better at shooting down Russian missiles, than it is for shooting down Iranian missiles, which is the stated purpose.

It appears to me that there is a policy by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to antagonize Russia in the hopes of recreating a cold war, which might favor Republicans electorally.

Russia Gains Control of Turkomen Gas Exports

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This development cements Gazprom’s position as the 800 lb gorilla in the world natural gas market.

It looks like they will sign similar projects with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

An interesting note is that the deals appear not to be particularly good for Gazprom, it’s unlikely that they will make much money out of them, but what it does do is likely kill a gas pipeline on a southern route through Turkey, which the US had been pushing to minimize Russian influence in Europe.