Well we have Izvestia claiming that Russian bomber crews were surveying sites in Cuba for suitability, and we have a Russian defense ministry spokesman denying the reports.
My guess would be that there are no plans, but someone in the Russian establishment wants there to be some.
Fidel Castro wrote an online column saying that, “Raul did very well keeping a dignified silence.”
Both Russia and Cuba have everything to gain from ambiguity, and so I think that they will continue to be ambiguous.
That’s part of Teddy Roosevelt’s idea behind the hole “talk softly” foreign relations.
I would note that the rumor is not about a permanent base, just a refueling base, but that would still give NORAD fits.
Specifically, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
There are now rumors that Russia may start basing nuclear capable bombers in Cuba in response to the US installing an ABM system in Europe directed at them (let’s be honest, if it were actually aimed at the Iranians, as claimed, it would be further south, to give coverage to Turkey and Italy).
General Norton Schwartz, the nominee for Air Force chief of staff, said, “I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line, for the United States of America.“
I agree….as does the expansion of NATO eastward, and a the European missile defense system crosses a red line for the Russians.
Russian political culture is not driven by a need to engage in the world. Russian political culture is driven by a paranoia about the world, and we seem to be taking steps guaranteed to stoke their paranoia.
It’s almost as if someone wanted to recreate the Cold War for political gain.
The Russians are now showing their SU-35 Flanker derivative prototype to air force officials and foreign representatives.
Note that, somewhat confusedly, this is the second aircraft designated Su-35.
These changes, along with other weight reductions in the airframe are supposed to, among other things, give supercruise capability, and it is expected to be fitted with some form of phased array radar.
I’m inclined to believe that the supercruise will be meaningful in air to air mode, if just because the aircraft carries so much fuel internally anyway that it will only be carrying 8 or so missiles in that configuration.
I think that the desire for supercruise is what drove them away from canards, likely increased transonic and supersonic drag a bit, though I am not an aerodynamicist.
It’s also has a new fly by wire flight control system, and so I’m a bit surprised that they haven’t reduced the size of the vertical tails a bit to cut down on weight and drag.
It should be an impressive aircraft, and competitive, particularly on price, in the export market.
Pull size pics at link.
The US and Czech Republic have signed a deal over the ABM radar, and the Russians are suggesting that they, “will be forced to react not in a diplomatic fashion but with military-technical means.”
This is a polite way of saying that nuclear weapons will be targeted at the Czech Republic, likely in a launch on warning stature.
The Czech people overwhelmingly oppose this, so one wonders if this will last past the Bush regime, particularly if the Russians bring natural gas shipments into the mix.
In a related note, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski talked with both McCain and Obama, and the sick old man is gave assurances that the program would progress under him, but Obama refused to say anything.
The fact is that the Russians are right. This missile base is being located in a place spectacularly ill suited to defend against Iran.
The only way that the sites could be located any further from Iran is if they were in the Baltic states.
Were the missile sights located in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, or Turkey, it would provide better protection from an Iranian strike.
What this is about is the desire by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to recreate the evil Russian empire for electoral benefit, and, for Condi Rice specifically, to recreate relevance in her area of expertise.
I think that his assesment may be closer to reality than most of us would like to think:
Russia’s new president, Dmitri Medvedev, less swaggering than his predecessor but as touchy about criticism from abroad, said in an interview that an America in “essentially a depression” was in no position to lecture other countries on how to conduct their affairs.
With soaring oil revenues bolstering the Russian economy and Kremlin confidence, Medvedev brushed aside American criticism of his country’s record on democracy and human rights. He also said that a revived Russia had a right to assume a larger role in a world economic system that he suggested should no longer be dominated by the United States.
If, in 2001, he had said this, most of the world would have been stunned and appalled at the concept that US hegemony is failing.
Today, I think that there are a lot of silent nods and smiles, because the Europeans understand what it means in a monopolar world if the single hyper-power is run by a group of madmen.
It appears that because the Poles are getting cold feet, or demanding more for the base, they are talking with Lithuania about locating the missiles there.
This means a number of things:
The last point is simple: If you have a sub optimal location, one that is too far north to protect parts of Turkey, Greece, and Italy, starting negotiations with a country that is further north, and hence less well suited to intercepting Iranian missiles, but just as well suited to intercepting a Russian strike.
What is going on is simple: This is Republicans trying to recreate the cold war, because it benefits them politically.
Demand for the services of the An-124 Ruslan airlifter has been growing by leaps and bounds, and now Russia and the Ukraine appear to be on the verge of restarting productions(Paid Subscription Required).
It’s not surprising. The aircraft offers an absolutely unique capability in terms of outsized and heavy lifting, and VolgaDnepr charter service for the aircraft has been doubling turnover annually.
It would be significantly upgraded:
The upgrade, known as the An-124-150, includes a glass cockpit capable of reducing the flight crew to four from six, along with airframe improvements, digital brake control, improved thrust reversers and major improvements in the aircraft’s Motor Sich D18-T engines. The 124-150 will have a maximum lift capacity at nominal range of 150 metric tons, compared with 120 tons for the basic aircraft. It will permit 10,000 flights and 45,000 flight hours with a first A-check required only after 500 hr. on the wing.
One item of note, is that this would theoretically mean that two, rather than one MBTs could be carried.
He says that it will be a breach of their friendship treaty.
As I’ve said before, the westward expansion of NATO, in violation of our promise to Gorbachev in the 1990s, is a big mistake, and a large reason for recent Russian paranoia and bellicosity.
This statement is not in any way surprising. The Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, have always seen NATO as a spear pointed at them.
That is why they demanded, and got, promises that following the reunification of Germany that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO.
Unfortunately, this promise was promptly ignored, and countries have been added to NATO with abandon, and the Russians see this as a ring of steel intended to threaten and pacify them.
There is nothing that has contributed to the bellicose nature of current Russian foreign policy as much. They are completely justified in seeing this as a threat and a provocation.
The back story is in 2002, the US started suppling military aid to Georgia to fight “al Queida backed forces”, but these forces never existed, and the aid continues.
The Russians, quite reasonably, see this as a provocation directed at them. (see here and here)
The arming of Georgia, like the westward expansion of NATO, is seen by the Russian government as a real threat to their own security, particularly given the guarantees made in the early 1990s that there would be no westward expansion of NATO.
As I’ve said before, I think that part of this agenda is a desire by Republicans to recreate the Slavic menace for political advantage.
What ever happened to the good old days of assassination and microfilm?
The Russians are threatening a lawsuit over China’s Type 39A diesel electric boat, claiming that it is a copy of their advanced Kilo class.
The Sierra II is arguably the best SSN the Russians have, with all the features of the Akula class, along with a titanium hull and relocated torpedo tubes (they are amidships, as is the manner with US subs to allow for a large sonar array in the nose as may later model Akulas).
They were dropped by the Soviets in favor of the Akulas because they were too damn expensive.
Truth be told, I’m not sure of the military value now, though one might use it to escort a Russian boomer, and there is always the intelligence value of parking one of these just off the coast of an area of interest and either listening to signals, or inserting operatives.