Category: Russia

Russian PAK-FA Flies

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Here is a decent quality picture

The aircraft made its first flight at Komsomolsk-on-Amur, duration about 45 minutes, the Sukhoi’s air field near Russia’s Pacific coast.

Note that this is more of a demonstrator than anything else, and by way of comparison, the BAE EAP, the demonstator for the Eurofighter Typhoon, first flew in August 1986, but entered service in August 2003, a 17 year lag.

To the degree that I can get a look at the cockpit arrangement, and it’s a couple of times that I have paused the videos (below), it appears that the canopy has not gotten any sort of stealth treatment yet.

There also appears to be a fair amount of edge alignment.

This, along with the visible smoke trails from engines, implies to me that this is more a demonstrator than a prototype

The the 2nd video makes that fairly clear that they are staying with the straight inlets and widely spaced inlets of the Flanker and Fulcrum, , so I’m not sure how they keep RCS down. There might be radar blockers in the inlets.

Interesting, they retain the widely spaced straight through inlets of the Flanker and Forger. I wonder how they reduce the RCS, perhaps radar blockers in the inlets.

Also, it appears that agility is a larger priority, as it has a cranked delta wing, which tends to improve nose authority at higher angles of attack.

I wonder if they are operating under the assumption that sensor fusion and increased processing power will mitigate stealth going forward, or they may have decided that lowering RCS to improve jamming efficiency was a more economical path forward than going with extreme stealth.

H/t ELP Defens(c)e

Moscow Russians Working on a Next Generation Bomber in 2025-2030 Time Frame

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Unlike some of the other Russian programs (*cough* PAK-FA *cough*) which seem to have overly aggressive time frames, this program has a realistic time frame, and the technical requirements are rather modest (paid subscription required) :

“At the end of the first stage, we selected four options [for the future bomber] out of an initial 47 for further consideration and analysis,” [head of the Special Aircraft Division, Alexander] Bobryshev said during a Dec. 23 meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Bobryshev committed to the design being completed in 2011-12, with development of the aircraft to be finished by 2017. Funding needs were not disclosed.

[Strategic aviation commander Maj. Gen. Anatoly] Zhikharev says the new bomber will be low-observable, using advanced materials and other technologies. However, he notes that it cannot be made “invisible,” signaling Russia will not pursue the all-aspect, multi-signature stealth performance the U.S. is considering for its next-generation bomber project.

Part of this is, I think, the understanding that if they were to go up against a highly integrated ground bases air defense system, it would be based on their technology, where they would have intimate knowledge of the technology and capabilities, as NATO relies more heavily on aircraft for this sort of defense.

Additionally, they are no doubt aware how expensive the full up stealth is, and they know how improvements in processing and the combination of signals from various sensors have the promise of negating stealth to a significant degree in the next few years.

Also, the Russians do not have the need for the extremely long range power projection capabilities that the US does. They are primarily concerned about their “near abroad”, basically former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact nations, with a special focus on Georgia and Ukraine, where NATO membership is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Bush-Cheney Were Even Crazier Than We Imagined

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During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, Bush and His Evil Minions™ considered military strikes against Russia:

As Russian tanks rumbled into Georgia in 2008, a post-Cold War turning point was at hand.

George W. Bush’s national security team considered launching air strikes to halt the invasion. …………

…………

Thus we learn that “several senior White House staffers” urged “at least some consideration of limited military options,” such as bombing the mountain tunnel that served as Russia’s main supply line.

What part of the phrase, “Russia has around 10,000 nuclear warheads in its arsenal,” didn’t these guys get?

Great googly moogly!

Report: Russia Enters Test With PAK-FA

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Nose Radar Installation


Wing Leading Edge Arrays


Optical/IR Search and Track

We now have a report that they have run up the engines in the prototype and taxied:

The first prototype of the aircraft rolled out on the runway of KNAAPO aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in the country’s far east. The test pilot switched on its engines and made two runs on the airstrip, during which breaks were applied several times.

The report says that they expect to field the aircraft in 2015, but my guess is that this is either a deliberate deception, or self delusion.

We are still getting conflicting reports on just what the aircraft is like, though this story reports a 3,500 km range, which I assume refers to ferry range, and is roughly equivalent to that of the F-22, for which the Wiki quotes a 2,000 mi (3,219 km) range.

Assuming that this is the case, I would assume that the PAK-FA is a bit smaller than the F-22, since the Russians tend to have internal fuel tanks which are not rated at the aircraft’s full performance (the equivalent of a internal “external tank”), as they are doctrinally less inclined to use either external tanks or aerial refueling.

One thing that is almost certain though: That its missiles will have superior kinematics to the AMRAAM/AIM-9Z used by the Raptor. The current Russian missiles are larger and heavier than the American loadout, and larger missiles=larger motors=longer range and better terminal performance.

Also, my guess is that the Russians are going “stealth lite”, with a greater reliance on sensors and missile kinematics, as opposed to all aspect stealth.

The photos from the Wiki, show a larger AESA radar array (top pic), wing leading edge mounted arrays for better off-axis performance (middle pic), and an Optical/IR Search and Track (bottom pic) for passive, or 3rd party designated, engagement of targets.

My guess is that the missiles will be mounted conformally, as opposed to internally, because the associated weight of internal carriage of larger missiles would very likely prove prohibitive.

But those are just my not-particularly-educated guesses, and we have to wait for the first blurry photos to be leaked to Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Russians Adapt Cruise Missile to Conventional Warhead

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AS-18 Kazoo variant


AS-15 Kent Variant

We now have evidence that the Russians are modifying their cruise missiles to accommodate conventional warheads. (paid subscription required)

You can notice on both the Kazoo (top) and the Kent, forward surfaces have been added, probably to accommodate a center of gravity that has moved forward due to a heaver conventional warhead replacing the previous nuclear payload.

Additionally, the Kazoo appears to have some electro-optical sensors, which are likely used to improve terminal accuracy, reported to be 2-5 meters.

Considering their experience in Georgia, where they aircraft to anti-aircraft systems that they had designed, the renewed focus on stand off weaponry is not a surprise.

Pictures: Kliper Space Module

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Models at the Paris Airshow


With an associated “space tug”


Escape tower system


Orbital module separation


Full size mockup


Lifting body configuration


Configuration:
1-Reentry capsule; 2-Docking section; 3-Docking port; 4-Service module

Mat Rodina, aka Stanislav Mishin, generally posts on issues of Russian diplomacy and economics, with a generally nationalist bent.

I find it a good read, because I think that helps one understand some of the Russian concerns out there, though I frequently disagree.

Well, this Tuesday, he went looked at space technology, and posted about eh Kliper spacecraft, which has been proposed to replace the Soyuz. (see also the wiki)

Given the experience of the space shuttle, where the juxtaposition of solid boosters and a cryogenic fuel tank in parallel to the vehicle have led to disaster, the fact that the configuration sits atop, as opposed to astride, the tankage, much like the Dyna-Soar concept is probably a good thing.

On the other hand, the fact that it also has a cargo capacity of roughly 1000 kg is to my mind a mistake. The shuttle showed that mixing manned and payload functions in a single launch is uneconomical.

It’s propulsion includes a service module which is not returned from orbit, much like the current Soyuz or the Apollo capsules.

The Kliper has had a number of different concepts over the years, winged, lifting body, and something called a “hybrid version”, according to Buran-Energia.

Pictures are from the Wiki, or Buran-Energia.

Bye-Bye Ukraine

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Both Sweden and Finland signed on to the new northern natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, meaning that in 2012, Ukraine will no longer be the only way for Russian gas to make it to Europe.

This means that gas transit fees to the Ukraine, and the price of natural gas sold to the Ukraine, as well as the gas that is “lost in transmission” (stolen) are all likely to decrease.

In the short term, it means that the Russians want to make sure not to honk off anyone with short term gas disruptions, hence the recent agreement between the two government to waive penalties for Ukraine buying less gas than agreed to in their contract, because they don’t need to when they are an IMF economic disaster zone.

I think that the new pipeline may be why the Azeris are talking about selling their gas to Asia, particularly the Chinese, rather than Europe right now too.

They realize that the Ukrainian pipeline is likely decreasing utility in the future, and they can hook into the Russian system in fairly quickly once the northern pipeline is completed, so having the option to selling to Asian markets is a plus.

US Wimps Out on Honduras, Tries to Fix Problem They Created

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So, the cut a deal between the President of Honduras, and the leaders of the coup that ousted him.

It’s a fairly simple deal, a power sharing arrangement, but then the coup leaders decide that they can’t hold a vote to approve this until after the elections, meaning that they will be in complete control of the electoral process, and doubtless engaging in fraud, and the response of the Obama administration is, “Sounds good to me”:

Under fire from allies in Latin America and on Capitol Hill, the Obama administration moved Tuesday to try to salvage the American-brokered agreement that had been billed as paving the way for a peaceful end to the coup in Honduras. Instead, the accord seems to have provided the country’s de facto government with a way to stay in power until a presidential election scheduled for the end of this month.

The State Department sent Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Craig Kelly to Honduras on Tuesday for meetings with Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted from power as president more than four months ago, and with the head of the de facto government, Roberto Micheletti.

The problem here is that when bad people seize power, they like to hold onto it, and the Obama administration took a cowardly position, because they just did not want to be bothered with little things like the principle of democracy and free elections:

The deal began to unravel last week when the Congress announced it would postpone a vote on Mr. Zelaya’s return to power until after the election. In protest, Mr. Zelaya then refused to submit names for the coalition government. And the United States, breaking with its allies in Latin America, announced it would recognize the results of the coming presidential election, even if Mr. Zelaya were not reinstated.

A hint that this move on their part was a completely boneheaded move that gave succor to tyrants? This:

While the announcement was celebrated by Republicans as a “reversal” of the administration’s policy, it ignited a storm of criticism from Mr. Obama’s allies at home and across Latin America.

If you are getting cheers from the ‘Phants, you are on the wrong side of the argument.

What happened here is that it was pressure from other Latin American nations that forced the State Department to start talking about sanctions against the coup leaders, and the Treasury started talking about possible restrictions on remittances, which created an agreement.

The problem was that once the agreement was signed, signals were sent indicating that the US no longer had any interest in the matter.

This is a big deal for a number of reasons.

First, it is a reversal on the progress toward democracies in Latin America, and second it has some very real implications for US foreign policy in the region, because, unlike the US (and Canada), the rest of this hemisphere takes a very dim view on green lighting coups, because they all remember the bad old days when the overthrow of a legitimately elected government, sometimes at the request of US corporate interests, was the rule, rather than the exception.

China and Russia are both making significant efforts in the region, both in terms of securing raw materials and making military sales, and this, along with out completely boneheaded policies on Cuba, are likely to make Latin American countries much more receptive to their overtures.

Russia Planning Nuclear Rocket

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Bimodal Nuclear Thermal Rocket

From the report, we are not talking about Orion, or direct thrust from nuclear heating, but rather some sort of electric propulsion system using electricity from a reactor for a proposed mission to Mars.

Something like ion drive, or plasma drive would likely cut transit time by at least ¾ for a manned trip to Mars, and if a ground base were established, a nuclear power supply would handle the reduced solar energy levels there.

I’d take this with a grain of salt, because the cost quoted for this is a bit over US $¾ billion, which sounds like a quote from Never Land.

Now With Whale Penis Leather Seats

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Dartz Prombron Monaco Red Diamond Edition

Just when you think that the world cannot get more crassly commercial, we are told that a Russian armored car manufacturer has created the Dartz Prombron Monaco Red Diamond Edition, which has:

  • Whale-penis leather upholstery.
  • Gold Plated bulletproof windows.
  • A Tungsten exhaust system.
  • Diamond and ruby encrusted gauges.

As well as a Kevlar skin, because, if it’s an armored car, you want a Kevlar skin.

Great googly moogly.

H/t Marginal Revolution.

Russia’s Adopts Nuclear First Strike Policy

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While worrisome, it represents a reversal of the Soviet/Russian “no first strike” policy adopted in the 1980s, but it should be noted that this new policy will not will be effectively identical to that of the US, which has repudiated calls for it to take a “no first strike” policies since the 1980s.

It’s nothing to tear one’s hair out about, unless you are Georgian President Saakashvili, where it might be seen as a shot across the bow towards NATO involvement in the region….But then again, he doesn’t tear out his hair, he chews on his tie.

“In situations critical for national security, a preventive nuclear strike against the aggressor is not ruled out,” he said.

The section of Russia’s military doctrine about the opportunity to use nuclear weapons was formulated to preserve the status of a nuclear power for the Russian Federation. The document states that Russia can apply nuclear deterrence against potential enemies to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies.

I think that the video below puts everything in decent perspective:

What Took Them So Long

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So, the EU has investigated the Russia-Georgia war, and concluded that Georgia started the war, and that Russia’s reaction was excessive.

The former ruling is much more significant than the latter, since the international community always wants everything to end at the old borders.

Look at the hand wringing over the demise of the Tamil Tigers.

Still, this took them over a year?

I knew this in within 24 hours of the war having started: the Georgians shelled civilians, and the Russians knew what was planned, and when it was coming, and reacted with overwhelming force.

Sanity Hits Missile Defense Plans

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Click Pictures for full size images
Tehran to DC


Masshad to Washington, DC


Masshad to San Francisco


Masshad to Rome


Masshad to Madrid


Masshad to Istambul


Masshad to Athens


Masshad to Chicago

Obama has canceled plans for missile defense installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Basically, they determined that the threat is not there, and the Russians find it provocative, so they are dropping it.

The Russian response is positive, if somewhat muted, probably because they have been aware that the signals that Obama has sent on this issue for some time, and do now want to stir the pot.

Notably, they mention cost a number of times in their official statement.

I think that this is a combination of a number of things:

  • Recognition that there were no real benefits to the system beyond playing to the right wing in Eastern Europe, and to upset the Russians, because it was thought that a hostile Russia would play well for Republicans in domestic politics.
  • The fact that there are technologies that allow for non-permanent installations to serve the same purpose, most notably THAAD and a potentially larger derivative, and various flavor of interceptors based on the Navy Standard, which won’t have the effect of leaving Turkey, Italy and Spain, as shown in my analysis from earlier this year.

In the case of a diplomatic crisis, you can have a THAAD or a ground based Standard interceptor battery in place in less than 72 hours in northeast Europe, and have an Aegis destroyer off deployed near Cyprus, or possibly in the Black sea, in order to protect the southern tier of NATO in less time than that.

This is a remarkably sensible and sane decision, and it appears that SecDef Gates is fully behind this, so I expect Republicans to start screaming “Munich
if they haven’t already.

I think that we will see more support from the Russians on a number of issues as a result.

When a Hijacking Isn’t

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I’m reading conflicting stories about what happened to the Russian freighter that was captured by pirates, but there are also reports that the ship was carrying S-300 SAMs (Probably the NATO designation SA-12) to Iran, and that the capture of the ship by “pirates” was a ploy by Russia to avoid delivery of missiles that had already been sold by someone who should have sold them.

In any case, it is definitely weird.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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The University of Michigan survey showed an improvement in consumer sentiment, hitting 70.2, exceeding forecasts of 68.0.

In wholesale, inventories have fallen to a 3 year low, indicating that there is little push to restock, though wholesale sales actually rose.

In retail, the fact that video game sales fell for the 6th straight month is worrying: When consumers, specifically hard core video gamers, do not feel comfortable purchasing video games, they don’t feel comfortable purchasing anything.

Meanwhile across the pond(s), we have

Japan’s growth in Q2 being revised down to 2.3% from a 3.7% annualized rate, though domestic cargo volumes in Russian indicate a recovery is imminent there.

Meanwhile, in the folks with more petro-dollars than brains department, Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund, Istithmar World, has stopped making investments, probably because they are having problems covering their losses.

In real estate, repossessions dropped 12.7% in August, but foreclosure filings fell only 0.5% and the number of people defaulting.

My guess is that this is some of the banks out there are already overwhelmed with REOs and don’t want to acknowledge the bottom line hit, so they are letting things slide right now.

Oil falls below $70 on demand recovery doubts – Sep. 11, 2009:

Meanwhile crude oil finished the week below $70/bbl.

In currency, the dollar index, a basked of currencies against which the USD is measured, fell to a 1-year low, in the longest sting of losses in the index, 6 days, since March.

Finally, gold ended the day above $1000/ox (Troy), which might make for happy gold bugs, but I’m inclined to say that it is time to cash in and get Yen or Euro.

Have Glass Equivalent Stealth Mods on Su-27 Series Fighters

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Sukhoi in RCS Test

The Russians are looking at some significant radar cross section (RCS) reductions on their Su-27 series fighters.

This is not full up stealth, you need to start at the drawing board to do that, but this is more along the line of the “Have Glass” mods done on F-16s, which involved shrouding the mechanicals of the radar systems with radar absorbent materials (RAM), using a metalized canopy to keep radar from reflecting off the cockpit contents, and some minor shaping and coatings on the engine inlets.

It’s more about making active jamming more effective, particularly in the shorter wavelengths, than it is about making an aircraft “invisible”.
The measures appear to be:

  • Masking the actuators of the radar.
  • Possible plasma cloaking of the radar.
    • This is not as outlandish as it sounds. Using plasma to cloak a complete airframe in a moving airstream is a big deal, using it under the radome, and turning it on and off to accommodate radar scans, seems more reasonable.
  • Coating the first stage fan with RAM.
  • A metalized cockpit canopy.
  • Spray on RAM on the external stores.

Russia Looks to Buy French Amphibious Assault Ship

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The Russians are looking at buying a Mistral Class amphibious assault ship.

It’s roughly equivalent to the Tarawa class of LHA, it’s a through-deck helicopter carrier with a well deck, and the possibility of carrying some STOVL aircraft, and can carry, and act as a command center for, amphibious assaults.

This is a capability that was never really the focus of the Russian navy, nor of the Soviet navy before it, which would explain why they want to purchase this capability from a 3rd country.

I’m not entirely sure why they feel that they need this capability though. The only 2 applications that I see are in multinational peace-keeping operations, and for invading Georgia, though issues with both the Turks and the Ukrainians would make the latter application difficult.