Category: Russia

An-70 Moves Forward

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It looks like the on-again off-again An-70 transport project is back on, with Russia and the Ukraine signing agreement to restore development to the aircraft. (see also here)

Given the problems with that Airbus A400m, being at least 2 years late, 12 tons (!) overweight, and short on promised range and cargo as a result of these problems, the AN-70 has an opening here.

They both fly at the same speed, but that Antonov flies a bit further with a 20 ton payload 6,600 km as versus 6390 km, has a bigger max payload, 47 metric tons as vs 38 metric tons, which would seem make it very competitive, though its contra-rotating props are doubtless louder, and hence more of an issue for people living near their bases in western nations.

Russia May Terminate Bulava SLBM

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After numerous test failures of the new solid-fuel Bulava submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) intended for the new Borei-class submarines, there are reports that it could be replaced by the liquid fueled Sineva missile, which is currently deployed on older submarines.

My guess is that it would take less time and effort to make the Bulava work than it would to replace it, since it is derived from a land-based system which already works, and the rework of the Borei’s to do this would be involved, but I am speaking from a position of profound ignorance here.

Sanity Brakes Out in Missile Defense

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We now have a report that the US will abandon plans to station missile interceptors in Eastern Europe

Washington will scrap plans to put anti-missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic and is looking at alternatives including Israel and Turkey, a Polish newspaper reported Aug. 27, citing U.S. officials.

The U.S. plan, intended for defense against attacks from Iran, has met with fierce objections from Russia, which regarded the eastern European bases as a threat to its own security.

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This is good news. Not only was Eastern Europe a piss poor location for missile defense, because it leaves allies on the southern tier of NATO unprotected, but it is located so as to be a direct threat, and a means of surveillance of, all of the European territory of Russia.

I continue to maintain that the real goal of the missile system was to create hostility, which would, in the perception of the Dick Cheneys of the world, bolster the Republican Party.

Alligator Helo to Start Radar Trials

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The Russians are starting trials with a radar roughly equivalent to the Longbow for the Kamov Ka-52 helicopter, with a roughly 30km range. (paid subscription required)

The cost for the 2nd seat and radar that were added in the upgrade from the Ka-50 is that a lot of the armor has been removed to keep weight below 10 metric tonnes.

Mostly I’m posting this for the picture, because I’ve always found the coaxial helicopters to look “cool”

This is Wicked Stupid

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It looks like the US Military is going to resume training the Georgian army.

Considering the fact that President Mikheil Saakashvili is a truly delusional and despotic nutcase who is spoiling for another war with Russia, this is a very bad idea on that level, but it’s also clear that the Georgian state security apparatus has been completely penetrated by the Russian intelligence service that they knew to the minute, if not the second, when the Georgians were going to invade South Ossetia.

But we need bodies for Afghanistan, so we’re training them.

Nostalgia…..

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It looks like Russian attack boats Akula class according to reports, are patrolling off of the US coast.

The military says that they are not concerned, and that they tracked them all the way here:

Two nuclear-powered Russian attack submarines have been patrolling off the eastern seaboard of the United States in the first mission of its kind so close to shore in nearly a decade, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.

The Pentagon said it was not alarmed by the maneuvers, carried out by what officials described as Soviet-designed Akula-class submarines in international waters as little as 200 miles off the coast.

Interesting in all this is the rather matter of fact statement that there was no problem tracking the boats:

The official said the Navy was able to track the submarines as they made their way through international waters off the American coastline. This can be done from aircraft, ships, underwater sensors or other submarines.

It makes me wonder if this was not intended to be public in the first place. The Russians have already leased a sub to India, and there are other potential customers, and patrolling off the US coast, if it makes it into the papers, is an advertisement for the product.

The Akulas may not be Virginia class boats, but they are pretty quiet, after all.

Then again, maybe they just wanted some good cigars, as some of the reports note that at least one of the boats paid a visit to Cuba.

H/t Information Dissemination.

Russia Sends Warning of Georgia

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Considering the heated rhetoric on this issue, this is pretty mild.

What they are saying is that they will cut military and diplomatic ties with nations that sell Russian built or Russian designed weapons to Georgia.

All in all, this a remarkably narrowly drawn statement, that it will not be offering support or spares to nations that ship Russian, and one would assume Soviet, weapons to Georgia.

Compared to earlier statements made where various government officials appeared to insult each other over parentage and penis size, it’s a major step forward.

Economics Update

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The US trade deficit rose in March, to 27.6 billion, on falling exports and the recent increases in oil prices.

Imports fell by $1.6 billion, but exports fell by $3 billion.

We will not be, as the Japanese did, exporting our way out of this trade deficit.

This is one reason why the American Express/CFO Research Services survey has 59% of CFOs seeing more layoffs.

Of course, the fact that nationwide, US home prices fell the most on record, 14% year over year, and the only markets where home sales are rising are where vultures are sweeping in to buy cheap foreclosure properties.

On the bright side, the National Federation of Independent Business’ monthly index of small business sentiment was up for the first time in 4 months.

It appears, however, that credit card company Advanta is not so optimistic. The company, which specializes in credit cards for small businesses, is shutting down its lending operations on June 10, after uncollectible debt exceeded 20%.

They are not shutting down, they are just shutting down all their credit lines, and just taking payments, which is awfully close to shutting down, so the credit cards just become so much plastic.

The deficit is not looking good either, with tax receipts so low that the federal government ran its first April deficit since 1983.

In energy, oil was up today, briefly breaking $60/bbl for the first time since November, before settling at $58.85/bbl.

This, along with banking changes and interest rate increases, is why the ruble is on a tear right now, and the US dollar fell to a 4 month low on comments by a number of experts that the recession is bottoming….Yeah….sure…

More Info on the Georgia Mutiny

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Well, I asked for background on the Georgian mutiny, and I just got it.

This wasn’t a coup attempt. This was a mutiny in the classic sense of the term, with an armored brigade (!) being ordered to take action against peaceful demonstrators, and the commander, Colonel Mamuka Gorgiashvili, with, one assumes, at least the tacit the consent of his subordinates refused to deploy against peaceful protesters.

He defied orders and remained in barracks.

This is probably significant, the state security apparatus has been a bulwark of Saakashvili rule, but it is by no means an attempt to disrupt the NATO maneuvers or a coup.

There is a Context in Georgia

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But I am not sure what it is, so the report of a tank battalion mutinies in Georgia is concerning, but I do not know what it means.

I still believe that the Russians have thoroughly penetrated the Georgian state security apparatus, so I don’t see this as being part of a Russian backed coup. It would have been more extensive and better organized if it had.

It is likely, however, that the Russians were aware of what was going on before the Georgians, and certainly they view the events with no small amount of schadenfreude, but I think that whatever happened here had a lot more to do with what is going on in Georgia than with Russia.

That being said, I have yet to see anyone, anywhere give more specifics than, there was a mutiny, and the Georgians accused the Russians.

Perhaps there is something to be found on Georgian or Russian language sites, but I can’t read either tongue.

My guess would be that there are elements in the Georgian military not happy with the NATO exercises, but that is only a very uninformed guess.

Russia: Turkey Seeks To Buy Air Defense System – Defense News

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About 7 months ago, I noted that Turkey was looking to buy Russian SAM Systems.

We have another report , and this adds the S-400 (NATO Code Name SA-21 Growler) to the list.

It is arguably the most capable SAM system in the world with a range in excess of 400 km, and a sophisticated control system that may allow for some anti-stealth capabilities through sensor fusion and data processing, along a significant anti-missile capabilities, which might very well provide coverage from something fired from Iran.

What is interesting here is that the story is not that the manufacturer is saying that Turkey wants the system, not that a contract has been inked, and the system has yet to be exported, and I am not sure that if I were Russian authorities, I would want a NATO ally, who would be very likely to pass along data on this system to the US, to get their mitts on this.

Russian Draws Back Veil from MiG-31BM

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Russia has finally displayed the latest version of the MiG 31 interceptor along with its weapons loadout.

Of interest is that this is the first showing of the R-33S (bottom pic, right hand side), which differs from the basic R-33 by having some small destabilizing surfaces up front (the ones with the ray and white bodies).

It’s about 40 kg (88 lb) heavier than the basic R-33, which would imply some increase in range, and the destabilizing surfaces implies an increase in maneuverability, though it is still clearly not intended for highly maneuverable targets.

You can click the pics for the full size photographs.