Category: South Asia

A Foreseeable Result of Pandering to the US Nuclear Industry

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Now that the US deal to sell nuclear technology to India is pretty much a done deal, the Chinese are selling nuclear power plants to Pakistan:

China is expected to formally announce the plans to build the 650-megawatt reactors in Punjab province at a meeting in New Zealand of the Nuclear Suppliers Group – the 46 countries that dominate and try to control the world’s atomic trade.

The US has already voiced its disapproval before the meeting, which starts today, and will try to forge a consensus on updating the rules designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

US officials say that the plan requires special exemption from the NSG, [Nuclear Suppliers Group] which China joined in 2004, as Pakistan has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and could, therefore, divert some technology to its nuclear weapons program or to another country.

China and Pakistan disagree, pointing out that the US set a precedent by sealing a deal to sell civilian nuclear fuel and technology to India in 2006, even though Delhi had yet to sign the treaty.

That someone would sell nuclear reactors to the Pakistanis in response to the US making a joke of the NNPT was pretty much a done deal, and a predictable consequence of this decision.

I made note of this some time ago, and when my predictions prove true, it implies a level of blatantly obvious that buggers the mind.

The original deal with India was all about Bush and His Evil Minions™ wanting to reward their friends in the US domestic nuclear power industry, US interests be damned, and the consequences are potentially disastrous.

We’ll probably see a few more blips on Isao Hashimoto’s animations.

A Good Idea that India Should Outsource to Us

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The former governor of the Indian Central Bank is suggesting that the nation tax speculative and volatile capital flows:

India should tax foreign capital inflows into the equity market that stay invested for less than two years to protect its financial system and sustain economic growth, said former central bank governor Bimal Jalan.

“If you have unstable, unpredictable, volatile capital flows which are affecting financial stability as well as the real economy’s stability, then you have to find a way of handling them so that they are not free for all,” Jalan, who headed the Reserve Bank of India between 1997 and 2003, said in a telephone interview. “I’m in favor of tax on profits earned from capital flows which are going to the stock market.”

The problem is that this is a really nasty bit of musical chairs, and when the music stops, the IMF takes your house and children.

We should implement something similar in the US. It would also serve to shrink the financial sector, which would be a good thing.

Since it is a really good idea, it won’t be seriously considered here.

India Restructures MMRCA Competition

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It appears that because of an inability of the Indian defense bureaucracy to evaluate proposals in a timely manner has required that the schedule for the downselect to 3 competitors for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program be pushed back an indeterminate length of time, (paid subscription required) which, under the terms of the contract, requires a rebid from the competitors.

FWIW, my money is still on MiG winning, the Indians already fly the aircraft, and the Eurofighter, Rafale, and Superhornet are really too large to be “Medium,” the F-16 is also operated by the Pakistanis, and the Gripen, by virtue of being Swedish, does not have the requisite geopolitical pull.

Then again, the final selection still appears to be at least 3 years off, and my powers of prognostication are in serious doubt.

Are the Recent Taliban Arrests Another ISI Black Op?

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Kai Eide, the former special representative in Afghanistan is saying that the recent spate of arrests by Pakistani security forces was likely a deliberate effort to sabotage ongoing negotiations with the Taliban:

The UN’s former envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, has strongly criticised Pakistan’s recent arrest of high-ranking Taliban leaders.

Mr Eide told the BBC the arrests had completely stopped a channel of secret communications with the UN.

Pakistani officials insist the arrests were not an attempt to spoil talks.

I don’t believe the denials.

The Pakistani state security apparatus is horrified at the thought of a government in Kabul that is at all friendly to India, and the people that they arrested were the ones who were involved in the negotiations, as Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist with an extensive background in the region notes:

While the Obama administration is watching the battlefield in Afghanistan, hoping for a quick weakening of the Taliban, regional powers are ratcheting up tensions in and outside that country. Pakistan and Iran in particular want to ensure that by the time the United States is ready to talk to the Taliban, the region’s future will already be shaped by local powers, limiting Washington’s options. Afghanistan’s ethnic and sectarian divisions are being exacerbated in the process.

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Events are reminiscent of the 1990s, when the bloody Afghan civil war was fueled by an alignment of India, Iran and Russia, which backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban regime supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

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Yet Pakistan’s military clearly wants a role in shaping Afghanistan. Islamabad had given the Taliban leadership sanctuary since 2001, but in recent weeks the military has arrested several key Taliban leaders who went around the generals and the intelligence service and were using Saudi Arabia as an intermediary to talk to Kabul. Still left alone, however, are Taliban hard-liners who could promote Pakistan’s security needs in future dialogues with Kabul.

On a visit to Islamabad last week, Karzai acknowledged that Pakistan has legitimate security concerns in Afghanistan but also demanded that those arrested Taliban members be extradited to Afghanistan. Privately, senior Afghan officials were incensed, claiming that Pakistan was “sabotaging and undermining” their efforts to talk to the Taliban.

Unfortunately, the Pakistani state security apparatus continues to prepare for a cataclysmic confrontation over Kashmir, which will never happen, because India and Pakistan are now nuclear powers, and this world view continues to make them unreliable allies in the region.

Saab Looks to Go Feet Wet on Indian Gripen Proposal

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Credit: SAAB CONCEPT

In an effort to improve its chances to sell its Gripen to India for the MMRCA competition Saab has once mooted the possibility of an aircraft carrier capable Gripen:

Saab believes modifying the Gripen NG to meet an Indian requirement for a carrier-borne fighter would add only 400 kg. (880 lb.), giving the aircraft—dubbed Sea Gripen—an empty weight of 7,500-8,000 kg.

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The Sea Gripen would require a new main undercarriage and nose gear, airframe strengthening in specific areas and a redesigned arrestor hook. Given the comparatively small size of the Gripen, this obviates the need for folding wings. The company is proposing Sea Gripen as a “partner program,” with the first target country being India.

Even for an aircraft as light as the Gripen, having a delta of only 400 kg (880 lb) is pretty impressive, so I’m wondering if they are trying the same thing that was proposed for the Eurofighter Typhoon, when it was proposed to create an auto-land system that allowed for a flare before landing to the need to reinforce the landing gear and structure.

[on edit]

There is also the possibility that Swedish operational requirements, which include the ability to operate from austere fields, such as roadways, may have already resulted in a landing gear that is rather more robust than those found on the normal western jet fighter.

A Failing State With Nuclear Weapons

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No, I don’t mean Pakistan, I mean India, where they have just carved up the province of Andhra Pradesh.

It appears to be political pandering to a coalition partner, but it also sounds a lot like a nation that will soon be joining Pakistan in having issues with its territorial integrity:

The Indian government agreed to carve a separate state out of the southern Indian province of Andhra Pradesh, which includes the information-technology capital of Hyderabad, following days of violent protests.

The government’s unexpected decision, which could spur social unrest and separatist demands in other regions, faces legislative hurdles — and prompted 83 of Andhra Pradesh’s 295 legislators to say they would resign in protest.

Hyderabad has been hit by protests from supporters of K. Chandrashekar Rao, who heads the Telangana Rashtra Samithi political party dedicated to establishing a separate state for the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh, which includes Hyderabad.

This is not the sort of thing that a cohesive nation state does.

Hopefully, this is not the beginning of a downward trajectory for India as a nation-state.

When Bigots Get Revealed

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No, I’m not talking about the Republican Party, I am talking about the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the descendant of the fascist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

You see, after 17 years, the official report on the destruction of the Babri Mosque by a BJP led riot has been released, and it has explicitly stated that the BJP, and the leaders of the party meticulously planned the destruction of the 450 year old structure.

It should be noted that it was this action, and the rioting that followed, that catapulted what had been an obscure bigoted nationalist party onto the Indian public sphere, with negative consequences that continue to this day.

In addition to the uproar, it appears that the leaders cited in the report, most notably former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will not be fielded as candidates.

This is not a report that you are likely to see much of in the US press. (the top link is the Christian Science Monitor, but their beat is overseas)

The reason is that while the BJP may be a party with a history of ethnic cleansing and bigotry, it is also a party that is far more accommodating to foreign investors and foreign banks, and so US media see them as “good guys”.

Congress Passes Limits on Military Aid to Pakistan

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Basically, after the clusterf%$# that was support for Pervez Musharraf and His Evil Minions™ by George W. Bush and His Evil Minions™, where military aid to Pakistan went to parts unknown, Congress has placed restrictions on military aid to ensure that it will go to fighting the Taliban and al Qaeda, and not to building up the military for a war with India…And yes, maybe it will reduce graft a bit too:

Military payments to Pakistan must be in the interests of U.S. national security and mustn’t “affect the balance of power in the region,” according to a provision attached to the defense authorization bill passed yesterday by the Senate.

The restriction comes as the Pakistani army continues its biggest offensive against militants in the northwestern tribal region bordering Afghanistan, where 28,000 soldiers have been deployed to fight guerrillas blamed for 80 percent of terrorist attacks in the country.

It’s about fracking time that we made it clear to Pakistan that we would not be supporting another useless and bloody war with India.

What’s Up With Petraeus Disrespecting a Foreign Head of Government?*

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Click for full size

Gen. David Petraeus, head of US Central Command, left, shakes hand with Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, prior to their talks at the Prime Minister’s residence in Islamabad, Pakistan, Monday.


General Stanley McChrystal, Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan, meets British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at 10 Downing Street, in London, on October 1, 2009

OK, so I’m reading an article regarding differences between the Pakistani and US Military, and I see this picture, with that caption.

What’s wrong with this picture? The fact that General David Petraeus is meeting with a prime-minister of an allied country in his fatigues (I know, technically the Army Combat Uniform) at the Prime Minister’s residence, not some air field named Camp Middle-of-Nowhere.

While I understand that the chain of command for the US military goes through the White House, and not the Pakistani PM’s official residence, it seems to me that when one shows up at such a place, whether you civilian or military, you should wear something that involves….You know…A tie.

Notice when another 4 star General, meets another Prime Minister, one who has a lot less skin pigment, and speaks English with near native fluency, somehow or other the tie comes out

My guess is that this is not about racism, but rather about the way that Petraeus has sold himself, as America great warrior™, and he therefore wants to be seen by the press and the public as a warrior, and so he wears a “battle uniform”, but that’s psychoanalysis from a distance, and if you do that you become Charles Krauthammer, and I really do not want to head down that road.

*In a parliamentary system, the PM is head of government, and a president (or monarch) is head of state. In the United States, the President is both.

The Problem is the ISI

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So, the Taliban has exploded another car bomb in Kabul.

The target was, here is a shocker, the Indian embassy.

One of the elephants in the room in that part of the world is that the ISI, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, like much of the military and intelligence establishment in that nation, viewed everything through the lens of an eventual all out war with India, and as such has aided, abetted, and directed the Taliban as a client organization.

I’m beginning to think that direct action against certain actors within the ISI might well be warranted…I’m suggesting snatch and grabs, not a Hellfire strike at their headquarters in Islamabad.

In an Outbreak of Sanity, India Seeks to Buy, Rather Than Develop Tejas 2 Engine

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The Indian AF recently rejected proposals for foreign aid to develop the indiginous Kaveri engine from the Gas Turbine Research Establishment, and now the India’s Aeronautical Development Agency has requested proposals for complete engines from both Eurojet (EJ200) and GE (F-414) for an off the shelf proposal.

All in all, this a good move, though I am kind of surprised that the IADA is nto also looking at the Klimov RD-33, later versuions of which are in the 20,000 lb thrust range, and is already in service.

Woah…This Has Failure Written All Over It

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The Indian Defense (or is Defence) Ministry has initiated a project to create a “digital soldier”, called Futuristic Infantry Soldier-As-A-System (F-INSAS), and it seems to be analogous to the Pentagon’s recently canceled suspended “Land Warrior” system.

Of course, this ambitious system in juxtaposed with the Indian Defense R&D programs, which have taken more than 30 years to take a tank and an aircraft from concept to operational deployment, and 22 years to develop an anti-tank missile, so I see this as very likely being another complete cluster f$#@.

I’m not sure why Indian defense R&D is so completely fracked, but they have our own Pentagon beat on this, which must be scary for the Indian soldier and taxpayer.

As Sure as Death and Taxes

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Is the fact that a high profile indigenously developed defense system developed by the Indian military defense establishment will be completely fracked.

In this case, we are talking about the Tejas light combat aircraft, where we are seeing delays in developing its radar and other avionics, and the Indian Air Force has just rejected a joint venture with Snecma do develop the Kaveri engine, which has been in development for the small fighter for over two decades.

Seriously, the Indians have the US beat hands down in the dysfunctional defense procurement apparatus department.

Is the Pentagon Actively Working to Sabotage Indian Gripen Bid?

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The story is that SAAB went to Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) looking for a partnership on on developing its Gripen NG, and that the US Government forced IAI to pull out, claiming, “That Western technology in Israeli hands would make its way to the Indians.”

IAI was supposed to develop, “radar, communications and electronic-warfare – for the plane.” (See also here

According to Flight International, SAAB has stated that, “Israel was one of several options“, for the radar, though a report by Defense News categorically denies the report:

“Our AESA focus is on our partnership with Selex Galileo, which we reached in March,” a Saab spokesman said. “Together, we will jointly develop a new radar based on Selex’s AESA Vixen and PS-05/A technologies. Saab is not involved in other AESA programs.”

I’m inclined to believe that the reality falls somewhere in between.

SAAB already has a deal with Selex on the radar, and going with a second source at this time would be a major drain on resources, but the use of Israeli comm and ECM gear, particularly the latter, would be a very big selling point.

I would note that there is some history behind this that leads me to believe that there was some US arm twisting regarding the Israelis on something, because when the Gripen was sold to South Africa some years back, the US blocked the sale on “technology transfer” issues, the South African government decertified all the US bidders on all its defense programs, and State/DoD backed down, so South Africa is now flying Gripens.

Additionally, this could be a bit of marketing by the SAAB and IAI: I can see nothing that would more infuriate the Indian defens(c)e establishment than the idea that the US was refusing tech transfers to them, and such a meme would disadvantage the American competitors, the F/A-18 E/F and the F-16 IN (basically a block 60).