Category: South Asia

Pakistani Supreme Court Rules that Nawaz Sharif Can Hold Office

He had been banned from office by the Supreme Court some months ago, on the basis of the trumped up charges that Musharraf charged him with post coup, but since then, the Musharraf appointed chief justice has been replaced by Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who had been removed by the general, and whose whose reinstatement was the subject of massive protests, ruled that the charges in question were bogus.

There should be no short term political impact, but it is clear that Sharif is more popular than the current president, Asif Ali Zardari, who is seen as both ineffective and remarkably corrupt even by the standards of Pakistani politics, and it is likely that he would win when an election is held.

Pakistan Is Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the JCS, has testified that Pakistan is expanding its arsenal to Congress: “WASHINGTON — Members of Congress have been told in confidential briefings that .

While his response in public testimony did not contain any detail, we are talking at a significant increase in capability, including the creation of new reactors which can create bomb grade plutonium, which would allow for significantly more compact and weaponizable bombs.

The Danger Room has a satellite pic showing the expansion of its facilities.

Seriously, we have a borderline failed state, a civilian government that is failed by most criteria, and they are building more nukes….Delightful.

Because the Political Culture is That Dysfunctional

Matthew Yglesias wonders why we have to beg the government in Islamabad to take action against the Pakistani Taliban as opposed to their begging for help, when it is clear that they are an existential threat to their government.

First and foremost, I think that the level of threat is exaggerated, but more importantly, the political culture of Pakistan is amongst the most profoundly dysfunctional in the world.

It has much to do with its founding as a nation, which was not so much born in nationalism, but British colonial tactic.

Simply put, the British maintained control in many of their colonies, particularly in what is now India and Pakistan, was to encourage ethnic rivalries, and so as movements for autonomy, and later independence, grew in India, the British authorities encouraged Muslim leaders to agitate for a separate state, which they believed would make the independence less likely.

This was followed by the war over Kashmir in 1947-8, in which the British, particularly Mountbatten, continued to meddle in South Asian affairs.

When combined with the later wars, particularly the humiliation suffered in the Bangladeshi war of independence, it left the state security apparatus, particularly the ISI, focused on one goal: to win the next war against India, and secure all of Kashmir.

This is not going to happen. India and Pakistan both have something on the order of 50 combat militarized nuclear warheads, and as such a full out shooting war would result in horrific losses to India, and something very close to the complete elimination of the Pakistani state.

Even so, there remain elements in the military, and the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, that remain exclusively focused on the prospect of a final apocalyptic battle with India.

As such, they support extreme Muslim fundamentalists on both sides of the border with Afghanistan, even though these are the same people who are a threat to the stability of the state, because they believe that the conflict with India is the primary focus of the state, and that by supporting these the Taliban, they can minimize India’s influence in Afghanistan.

Personally, I think that it’s nuts, and a does much harm to Pakistan, but that is what the mind set is.

Gee, This is Credible

The BJP is saying that if the US rescinds a tax break used to outsource workers that they will remove India from the nuclear deal with the US, and buy their civilian reactors from the French.

Note that the tax break subsidizes shipping jobs from America to India, but then again, as the spectacle of appropriations bills and the agriculture bill show, everyone wants their subsidy.

Of course, the French don’t subsidize outsourcing software and support to India, and the number of Francophones is relatively small in India, so the couldn’t move much business there if they tried.

Additionally, the BJP, the Hindu Nationalist (or as I like to call them, Fascist) Party is not the party in power, that’s the Congress Party, though there is a campaign ongoing.

It’s electioneering, and means nothing, though if I were Barack Obama, I would call their bluff.

It would not even effect the nuclear industry for the next few years, as lead times are very long for such projects.*

*Full disclosure, I did work for a brief time in the nuclear industry last year, on plant shutdown and cleanup of waste.

Indian Air Force says Rafale Remains in MMRCA Competition

Remember when I said over the weekend that the Dassault Rafale had been dropped from the Indian MMRCA competition?

Well, it appears that the reports of the French Fighter’s demise have been exaggerated.

The Indian Air Force has denied reports that the Dassault Rafale has been eliminated from the country’s medium multi-role combat aircraft competition.

“We have not ruled anyone out yet in the MMRCA competition,” says an IAF spokesman, who confirmed that the service is responsible for evaluating the contenders. “All of the tests have not been completed. The technical evaluations are only just over and we are scheduled to begin the flight tests next month. Everyone is still in the competition.”

Last week, several Indian newspapers reported that the Rafale was eliminated after failing the technical evaluation. …..

No clue as to what is going on here, or why.

Indian Drops Rafale from MMRCA Trials

Unofficial reports from a “senior Indian Defence Ministry” are that, “Dassault was unable to give full technical bid requirements, but this is obviously a rather vague and uninformative.

I find this very odd. Dassault and India have a long and established relationship, with India owning and operating Mirage 2000s, and at one point, offered to transfer the whole Mirage 2000 line to India.

The idea that they did not cross their “I”s and dot their “T”s, and thus was dropped from the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition is curious.

In any case, it appears that the Official MMRCA trials in August, with the, Boeing F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, RSK MiG-35 and Saab Gripen.

Common Sense on Pakistan

It looks like the White House will be linking future aid to Pakistan to their performance fighting the Taliban and limiting cross border incursions.

This is a very good idea.

There are elements in Pakistan who are still supporting the Taliban, because they see it as a way of offsetting Indian influence in Afghanistan, and much of the military establishment that isn’t doing this is completely focused on a future conflict with India, so they do not spend resources to assert a level of control in the “tribal regions.”

If they realize that spare parts for their F-16s is contingent on their performance in keeping the Taliban from using northern Pakistan as a staging area, maybe elements of the Pakistani security apparatus will get on the ball, as opposed to spending most of their time and energy on planning for an apocalyptic conflict with India.

Pakistan Chief Justice Reinstated

Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry was removed by former president Musharraf because he was seen as non-corrupt and independent of the executive, and current Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari reneged on his promise to reinstate him because he was afraid that he would investigate his own personal corruption, and that he would likely overturn the ban on rival opposition leader Nawaz Sharif.

Well, with a massive protest converging on the capital, Islamabad, and police unwilling to enforce his ban on the protest in many places, Zardari has backed down and will reinstate Chaudhry.

This is good news for Pakistan on a number of levels, it reinforces the rule of law, it is a step away from dictatorship, and it reinforces the concept of an independent judiciary.

Gripen NG AESA Radar in Flux

Originally, SAAB had contracted with Thales for its AESA antenna to be integrated with the Gripen NG, and while this will happen, Thales is refusing to make this available for production variants, because they are heavily tied into the Dassault Rafale, so far winless in export competitions, and the Gripen is competing against it for the Indian MMRCA and the Brazilian fighter competition.

This is further complicated by the fact that while the Thales system is compatible with the existing signal processor from the Saab PS-05 MSA radar already flying on the JAS-39 C, some of the successors would likely require that that this be changed, increasing integration costs.

So SAAB is casting about for another radar, hopefully one that is US content free, so as to avoid US export restrictions.

Yeah, Like This is Going to Work

It appears that India’s response to its troubled contract to buy the refurbished Admiral Gorshkov has led them to start construction of their own carrier in their own shipyards.

Considering India’s history in weapons development, Arjun Tank, Tejas light fighter, Kaveri engine, the Nag anti-tank missile(!), each more than 20 years in development without operational deployment, this is not a course of action that I would take.

This has fiasco written all over it.

Kyrgyzstan Makes it Official

The Kyrgyz ruling party voted to close the airbases.

It comes down to three things:

  • The Kyrgyz wanted a better deal.
  • The initial deal mostly gave money to family the now overthrown despot, and the Kyrgyz were honked off by that.
  • A Kyrgyz citizen was shot on base by a US soldier, and no meaning action was taken by US authorities against the soldier, inflaming local anger.

This, along with Russia giving them a better offer, was more than enough for them to kick us out of their airbase.

Well, Here Is a Vote of Confidence

The Indian Army is refusing to induct the BrahMos missile into service without further tests.

My guess here is that the army is concerned that the 5000 lb supersonic missile won’t work reliably.

Considering the most recent failure, and the generally spotty record of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), I’d want some real testing to verify this too.

There is also an element of bureaucratic infighting too, as Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor was at that test, where he was told that it was a success, but he visited the target area, and saw that it was a miss, and then DRDO criticized him for telling the press that it was a failure.

Oops.

What Are They Smoking?

Russia and India now have an in-service date for their joint next generation fighter program, the PAK-FA, 2017.

This simply is not going to happen that soon, particularly when India is still unsatisfied with the level of technology transfer, and they haven’t yet agreed on the number of crew (Russia wants a single seater, India a 2-seater).

They may have a demonstrator, at a maturity level of the MiG MFI, or the BAE EAP in the next 5 years, but the former never saw production, and the successor to the latter the Typhoon, did enter service until more than a decade after it rolled out.

If this ever enters service, I’d my guess is that it would be closer to 2025 than 2017.

And the P-80 was 180 days from proposal to first flight……

Further Delays in Indian MMRCA Competition

There is still no word on when when field trials will start for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft fighter competition. (paid subscription required)

One of the issues that complicates this is mother nature: If the demonstrations do not finish by July, then they run into delays as a consequence of the monsoon season.

Current competitors for the medium fighter are the, “Boeing F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab Gripen, and Dassault Rafale.”

It’s intended to replace their fleets of older model MiG-21s, which are at end of life.

My guess would be the the MiG-35 has the inside track, the Indian AF already has operational experience with the MiG-29, though the least expensive over the life time is very likely the Gripen.

It’s unclear to me whether SAAB is submitting the base Gripen, or the improved Gripen NG.