As it stands now, it looks like the Maoists will have an absolute majority in Parliament.
My guess is that this was driven by an anti-monarchy sentiment, and I would not think that they have support for actually implementing a Maoist state, which their neighbors, particularly China, would be less than enthused about.
First, we enthusiastically back and fund a not-particularly-competent military leader, who spends most of the money we send him on a potential war with India, and now we send “Mr. Death Squad” to lean on a not yet formed opposition government to be more proactive, all while continuing unilateral air strikes in populated areas.
Some selected quotes from the article below:
…
The meeting with Nawaz Sharif, …. have failed entirely. Sharif said that Pakistan would no longer be a “killing field” where other countries pursue their own interests.
…
[with tribal elders] “We told them that whatever differences we have (with the extremists), they can all be solved through the jirga system,” said Malik Darya Khan, one of the tribal chiefs who participated, referring to the traditional meetings of elders to solve disputes.
There also appeared to be an open dispute between Sharif and U.S. officials on how to deal with Musharraf. Sharif said afterward: “We don’t recognize him as the legitimate president.”
Dawn newspaper, in an editorial on Thursday, described the arrival of the two U.S. envoys as “indecent haste.” It added: “It is time Washington gave the new government time to settle down.”
“Bad timing gives the wrong signals, as if they are trying to pressurize the new government when it is in the stages of being formed,” said Shireen Mazari, the director general of Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.
“The war on terror has be to revisited. The most dangerous thing is that the Americans have succeeded in shifting the center of gravity of the war to Pakistan. We have to shift it back to Afghanistan,” Mazari said.
Pakistani concerns about U.S. activity have been ignited over the last month by a series of apparent American missile attacks on targets in Pakistan. The news that the former commander of the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, detention camp, where hundreds of Muslim prisoners, many of them Pakistanis, have been held without charge, has been appointed the chief U.S. defense representative in Pakistan isn’t likely to help relations.
Seriously, they could not screw this up more if they tried.
The PPP and PML-N have formed a coalition government, and they have almost 2/3 of the seats in Parliament.
In order to change the constitution, they would need a 2/3 majority, with impeachment requiring the same numbers, but their current majority appears to be enough to reinstate judges.
I don’t think that Musharraf is long to his post as president, and in fact, if the judges are reinstated, they may rule his last election to that post to be illegal.
They are talking about his leaving in the next few days.
I doubt it, but his exit would be good for America. Musharraf has never been serious about pursuing terrorism, and his presence is making Pakistan less stable.
Note that this does not take them to the 2/3 necessary to amend the constitution or to remove Musharraf, but with a few smaller participating, they would be there.
Musharrar’s days are numbered.
The military was unwilling to stuff ballot boxes for him, and now the anti-Musharraf parties are talking coalition, and it looks like they will make it to the 2/3 necessary to remove him.
Musharraf has been hopeless on terror, buttressing his support, now gone, with Pakistani military rather than engaging in meaningful antiterror operations, so good riddance.
It appears that Musharraf’s party has been absolutely crushed in Pakistani elections, here and here, and that there is now growing pressure for him to resign – USATODAY.com.
There are still some seats outstanding, but right now, the Pakistan People’s Party ( Benizir Bhutto) has won 87 seats, the Muslim League-N party (Nawaz Sharif) has won 66 seats, and Musharraf’s Muslim League-Q won only 38 seats.
There are 272 seats in the Pakistani National Assembly, so they need 137 for a majority, and 181 for the 2/3 vote to remove Musharraf, and t gether the parties have 155 seats right now.
There is a question as to whether the PPP and MLN can work together though, they are like the hatfield and the McCoys.
Human Rights Watch has released a tape of an interview with the Pakistani AG saying this.
It appears that they were conducting a phone interview, and than Attorney General Malik Qayyum initiated a second phone call without terminating the first, and he was recorded saying, “They will massively rig to get their own people to win.”
Oops.
It appears fairly likely from the whole conversation that the “they” in question is Pervez Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League-Q party.
Bird Flu has been found in over half of Bangladesh’s provinces, and, “The port city of Chittagong was put on high alert after some dead crows tested positive for the H5N1 virus”.
There are possible cases of bird flue in humans on a farm in Karachi. (also H5N1 in confirmed in birds here)
India has quarantined 26 people showing symptoms of bird flu.
We have no resources there, because we are tied down in Iraq.
I have no clue as to the reliability of the source, but we have a report that Lockheed Martin will be offering the F-16 with a supercruise capability to India for it’s massive mid size fighter purchase.
I would assume that this would involve a growth version of either the F-100 or F-110 engines, probably the former, as it is lighter, and possibly some aerodynamic tweaks.
I also know that a clean F-15 exhibited low supercruise (below Mach 1.2) nearly a decade ago in a clean (no external stores) configuration.
I’m a little dubious of the report, there are a number of errors in the article, it states that the F-35 supercruises, and implies that the Typhoon does not.
Additionally, the F-16’s wing configuration tends to be draggy in the transonic and supersonic regime, and for meanigful supercruise, this ability would have to be exhibited while carrying at least 4 air-to-air missles, 2 on the wing tips, and two under the wings.
I think that he is done, and that his options will be death or exile.he’s losing retired military officers, the new Pakistani Chief of Staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani, is forbidding active duty military men from meeting with him, etc.
Of course, through all this, Bush and His Evil Minions™ are without a clue:
Frustration is growing among Musharraf’s military and political allies partly because he is not listening to their advice, U.S. and Pakistani analysts said. “He’s locked in his own bubble that ‘l’etat, c’est moi’ — the state is me. He doesn’t understand how anti-democratic he is. He’s not thinking clearly anymore,” said the senior congressional official.
The Bush administration is still backing Musharraf, even as officials speak more frequently of working with “the Pakistani people,” instead of “the Pakistani leader.” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday met Musharraf on the outskirts of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in the highest-level contact since he declared emergency rule in November.
Rice pressed him to ensure that the vote is free and fair and that the Pakistani people have confidence in the results, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
Such remarks suggest that the administration is discounting the new assessments on Musharraf from intelligence and congressional officials.
This is unlikely to end well.
We are looking at somewhere around 100 dead after clashes in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
There appears to be artillery in use by the army, and militants have apparently seized a border fortress.
This is getting worse, not better.
It appears increasingly as if Pakistan, a nuclear armed nation, may be on the verge of descending into anarchy.
The Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, has for some time cultivated networks of militants, with the idea of being to control them.
Well, it appears now that these militants are saying, “So long and thanks for all the fish.”
As the military has moved against them, the militants have turned on their former handlers, the officials said. Joining with other extremist groups, they have battled Pakistani security forces and helped militants carry out a record number of suicide attacks last year, including some aimed directly at army and intelligence units as well as prominent political figures, possibly even Benazir Bhutto.
The growing strength of the militants, many of whom now express support for Al Qaeda’s global jihad, presents a grave threat to Pakistan’s security, as well as NATO efforts to push back the Taliban in Afghanistan. American officials have begun to weigh more robust covert operations to go after Al Qaeda in the lawless border areas because they are so concerned that the Pakistani government is unable to do so.
This was absolutely forseeable. It was a marriage of convenience on both sides.
In a very real way, it mirrors the US relationship with Pakistan….And the House of Saud….And the sh^%tty little oil monarchies all across the Gulf….etc.
Six Seven people have been killed in a Taliban attack on a the only five star hotel in Afghanistan.
There were 4 suicide attackers, armed with AK-47s and explosive belts.
We took our eye off the ball in Afghanistan, where there are people who hit us on 911, to go after someone who didn’t, and here we are.
First, the Musharraf govenrment is rejecting a U.N. inquiry, on the basis that “No foreign government was involved”, though they have already fingered al Queida, a group of foreign terrorists based, at least in part in Afghanistan, and definitely supported by a foreign group, the Taliban.
Bag News Notes also has an interesting analysis, where they lay the blame at the feet of Condoleeza Rice, who thought that another “election”, like those in Iraq, would show democracy on the march in Pakistan, but then she never followed up, and left Bhutto unprotected.
So it appears that Ford will sell Jaguar and Rover to Tata Motors in India.
When I heard about this, I flashed back to the otherwise forgettable movie, Crazy People, in which Dudley Moore plays an advertising man who flips out, and starts writing completely honest ads.
He does one for Jaguar, he does one that goes:
Jaguar… For guys who want handjobs from beautiful women they hardly know (with accompanying “Yes! I want a hand job!” tear off flyers).
Somehow the juxtaposition of Jaguar and Tata leads me to places I should not be going.
Thankfully, a friend helped (thanks Asta), and I can now conclusively say that their next car will be called the…..
Wait for it…..
Wait for it….
The Bodacious Tata!
It looks like Pakistan will be allowing elements of Scotland Yard into the Bhutto investigation.
They are in for a rude awakening. They won’t be dealing with diplomats, but an entirely different sort of British public servant.
Bhutto’s party, the PPPis upset at the delay. No doubt they realize that this will cut into the sympathy vote, and also the fact is that Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, aska “Mr. 10%”, is wildly corrupt, and hated for this, and if things calm down, it will weigh down the PPP once the voters get back to the polls.
This can’t be good.
The fact that anyone would flee to Afghanistan, as apparently several hundred Pakistani families have, indicates that things are going very very wrong there.
They are fleeing increased conflict between Pakistani militants and the military.