Category: South Asia

More Peculiarities in Bhutto Assassination

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First, we have reports that the Pakistani police prevented an autopsy, and now we have reports that Bhutto was to hand over evidence of vote rigging to US lawmakers on the day of her death.

“Where an opposing candidate is strong in an area, they [supporters of President Pervez Musharraf ] have planned to create a conflict at the polling station, even killing people if necessary, to stop polls at least three to four hours,” the document says.

The report also accused the government of planning to tamper with ballots and voter lists, intimidate opposition candidates and misuse U.S.-made equipment to monitor communications of opponents.

What’s that phrase, “Will no one rid me of that troublesome priest?”

Musharraf definitely bears some of the responsibility for her death, as they clearly skimped on security in an attempt to reign in her campaigning, but it is increasingly looking as if his responsibility is broader and deeper.

Developments in Pakistan, and A Possible Real Effect in Iowa

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It looks like Pakistan will be delaying elections for a few weeks in the wake of the Bhutto assassination.

Considering the unrest, it’s probably a good idea, though considering the iron grip that Musharraf has of the electoral process, I also think that it is not unlikely that the accusation of Bhutto’s PPP, that this is an attempt to game the system is true, but with at least 11 elections offices torched, there is not much of an option.

However, the effect on the US presidential campaign might be more than people have believed.

Specifically, with the appointment of Bilalwal Bhutto as the PPP party head, albeit in a purely ceremonial manner, with the acting head being the phenomenally corrupt (even by Pakistani standards!!!) Asif “Mr 10%” Ali Zedari, it raises dynastic issues, and might make people wonder as to whether the electoral process in the United states is more like Pakistan than we would like to think.

The entire Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton thing may very well bite Hillary, though the effect is likely

While Obama and Hillary Try to Make Hay, Edwards Takes High Road on Assassination

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We’ve got them sniping back and forth here, and to his credit John Edwards is not saying that it’s all about him:

Benazir Bhutto was a brave and historic leader for Pakistan. Her assassination is a sad and solemn event, and our hearts go out to her family and to the Pakistani people. But we will not let this contemptible, cowardly act delay the march of progress in Pakistan for a single second.

I have seen firsthand in Pakistan, and in meetings with Prime Minister Bhutto and President Musharraf, the instability of the country and the complexity of the challenges they face. At this critical moment, America must convey both strength and principle. We should do everything in our power to help bring the perpetrators of this heinous act to justice and to ensure that Bhutto’s movement toward democracy continues.

Compares favorably to the posturing by Clinton, Obama, Romney, Giuliani, etc. where they all basically say, “this is why you should vote for me“

It compares even more favorably to Mike Huckabee’s statement, where he says, “There’s a country called Pakistan? Really? Are you sure??“

I would note that my assessment of Bhutto is far less charitable than his, but he’s not making hay of the assassination, which is a good thing.

My Thoughts on the Bhutto Assassination

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First, it’s clear that even by the standards of Pakistani politics, she was highly corrupt, as mind boggling as this characterization was.

This is something that is frequently ignored, as the westerners that she met with were dealing with someone who went to Harvard/Radcliffe and then Oxford. She was well spoken, and knew how to make her point in terms that were familiar to the western officials whom she studiously cultivated.

In this way, she was very similar to Ahmed Chalabi, whose support from US officials, despite a history of criminal, dishonest, and corrupt dealings, managed to convince US figures who were profoundly ignorant of that part of the world to support his interests.

That they both went to college at prestigious western schools, (Chalabi received his BS from MIT, and his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago) is not an inconsequential part of this equation. It taught both of them how to communicate their interests in a very fluent way with their American counterparts.

That being said, it is clear that Bhutto was far more interested in actually governing and implementing policies, as opposed to Chalabi’s rather more venal interests.

Additionally, as the head of a the only major opposition party was assassinated yesterday, and with the elections less than two weeks away, it’s clear that the elections will not mean anything.

All that they will do is to serve as a rubber stamp of Pervez Musharraf’s power, as the only other potential rival to power, Nawaz Sharif, has not been allowed stand for election.

As to Mushaffaf, he is largely the product of, and completely beholden to, the Pakistani military establishment (which includes Pakistani intelligence services) which has little or no interest in pursuing the American anti-terrorism or anti Taliban agenda.

The Pakistani military’s culture resembles to a very large degree that of the German Imperial Navy pre World War I. They are focused on “der tag”*, the day, i.e. the eventual large scale conflict with India much in the same way that the German fleet focused on an eventual showdown with their British counterparts.

As a result, both organizations had limited effectiveness to the task at hand.

As such, it is no surprise that very little of the military aid that the US has sent to Pakistan has gone towards fighting the Taliban or terrorism, but has instead been directed toward India.

As to who is directly responsible for the assassination, I do not know, and neither does anyone else writing about it, though I lean toward various Pakistani warlords in the generally lawless border regions who were directly threatened by Bhutto’s policies.

However, it is clear that Musharraf deliberately impaired the security arrangements for Bhutto, probably in an effort to hamstring her ability to campaign, and as such he does bear some direct responsibility for her death.

I don’t see any resolution of this situation as being favorable to the United States, a quick perusal of Sharif’s record shows him having amended the constitution to make removal of a prime minister nearly impossible, and considering the fact that Pakistan has somewhere between 30 and 100 nuclear weapons, and the possibilities for the average Pakistani citizen are even worse.

There is a more general lesson to be learned though, and that is that the US has for a very long time generally cast about for “our man” in various places in the world of interest, rather than looking at issues of governance and process, and the results when this individual falls up short, as has happened when the US withdrew to some degree from Musharraf and placed its chips on Bhutto, have almost always been disastrous.

*At official events banquets, the German Navy always had a toast to “der tag”, translated as “the day”, referring to the eventual clash of fleets.

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

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According to CNN’s report, she was bombed and shot:

Video of the scene just moments before the explosion showed Bhutto stepping into a heavily-guarded vehicle to leave the rally.

Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if her bullet wounds were caused by a shooting or shrapnel from the bomb.

You don’t get bullet wounds from a bomb.

Shot and bombed, and this is a government teetering on the brink of anarchy with nuclear weapons.

Sharif Back in Pakistan, Calls for Ouster of Musharraf

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You may remember that the last time he came back to Pakistan, he was forcibly sent back to to sojourn with the House of Saud, but this time, he’s back, and he’s calling for Musharraf’s scalp.

Sounds like a movie…Like one I’ve heard before, called The Fall of the Shah of Iran.

I hope that this is not a remake…..Because a nuclear armed Mullah would not make my top ten list of movie favorites.

US Spending on Afthan Aid Inadequate and Incompetent

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Oxfam complaining about this. It appears that in addition to not spending enough money, $4.4 billion in Afghanistan since 2002, as versus $35 billion in 2007 alone for military efforts, too much is spent on, “profits of companies and subcontractors, on non-Afghan resources and on high expatriate salaries and living costs,” (up to ½ million/year for each contractor).

Additionally, “Some two-thirds of U.S. foreign assistance bypasses the Afghan government that officials say they want to strengthen”.

It’s almost as if there were a conscious decision among Bush and His Evil Minions™ to treat this as an opportunity for political payback to incompetent contractors who are political allies.

Outsourcing Terrorism, Yet AGAIN

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We lost bin Laden when we outsourced combat to Afghan tribes, and now we are proposing outsourcing to Pakistani Tribes.

A new and classified American military proposal outlines an intensified effort to enlist tribal leaders in the frontier areas of Pakistan in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, as part of a broader effort to bolster Pakistani forces against an expanding militancy, American military officials said.

If adopted, the proposal would join elements of a shift in strategy that would also be likely to expand the presence of American military trainers in Pakistan, directly finance a separate tribal paramilitary force that until now has proved largely ineffective and pay militias that agreed to fight Al Qaeda and foreign extremists, officials said. The United States now has only about 50 troops in Pakistan, a Pentagon spokesman said, a force that could grow by dozens under the new approach.

Let me get this straight. In a nuclear armed nation that is teetering on the brink of anarchy or revolution, somehow it’s a good idea to arm and train yet another group of people who will be usurping the most essential monopoly of the state, organized violence.

Impeach Dick Cheney today. Impeach George W. Bush tomorrow.

Breaking News, John Negroponte is a Moron

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Here is a guy who takes our money, and as opposed to going after terrorists in the north, has spent it on gold plating his military machine to go after India in the south, but according to John Negroponte, he is indispensable.

The Pakistani military has spent the past 60 imagining the glory of der tag*, and Musharraf is very much a part of this dysfunctional and anti-Democratic culture.

Of course, the current alternative, Benazir Bhutto, is remarkably corrupt, even by the standards of Pakistani politics (Yes, I know, “corrupt even by the standards of Pakistani politics”, is hard to wrap one’s head around).

*The German Imperial Navy, in the days before World War I, constantly longed for der tag, the day, when they would confront the British Navy.

India Test-Fires Nuclear Capable Missile

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While we are trying to cut a sweet deal for Westinghouse and the rest of the moribund nuclear power industry, India continues to advance their military nuclear arsenal, this time with a test-fiuring of the Agni-1 missile.

Truth be told, I believe India’s nuclear arsenal to be reasonably secure. The problem is that as they develop this arsenal, Pakistan feels compelled to develop their nuclear arsenal, and I think that the whole of Pakistan is insecure.

US Courting Indian Fascist Party To Secure Nuke Deal

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The BJP is literally the only significant Fascist left on the planet. Its origins go back to the Fascist parties of the 1930s, and there is a direct line back to the man who assassinated Mahatma Gandhi.

A breakthrough in the India-US nuclear deal

India’s nuclear deal with the US might be saved. After weeks of bad news, with the Indian government failing to get its Communist-led parliamentary allies on side, the ground is at last shifting and it looks as if the Bharatiya Janata Party, India’s main opposition which has been objecting to the deal, might save the day.

It is of course too early to be sure, but I’d put money on a parliamentary debate quite soon where the Left gets isolated and there is a consensus – or maybe even a vote – in favor of going ahead. That would enable the deal to proceed via the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and meet the January deadline that the US is aiming for.

So what’s happened to lift the pall of gloom that was falling last week over the deal and over India-US relations? Basically, US diplomats in Delhi – plus former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who is visiting the city – have been calling in favors from old contacts in the BJP who they have been nurturing for years. The US has always felt more comfortable with the right-wing Hindu-nationalist BJP than with the Congress Party, which leads the current government. The BJP, which started defense and nuclear talks with the US when it was in power from 1998-2004, has traditionally been seen as more pro-business than Congress, which comes from a Socialist background and built India’s Cold War alliance with the former Soviet Union.

The US has also seen the BJP, with its base among India’s majority Hindu population, as a bulwark against Islam. So for years American diplomats have been courting young aspiring BJP politicians, as well as their leaders. Now, as I said, is the time to call in favors – and the calls are beginning to yield results.

The idea that the US has been consciously meddling in Indian politics this way is troubling. The BJP has an absolutely reprehensible policy toward religious minorities that has stoked the separatist fires in this nuclear armed nation is very counterproductive.

As to India’s “alliance with the former Soviet Union”, this really was a policy of neutrality, and a willingness of the USSR to supply weapons, because they both had a common foe, China.

As to the nuclear issue, the Indian government already knows how to make nuclear power plants, this deal, for them, is about getting an implied approval of their nuclear weapons program from the US, and Bush and His Evil Minions™ are merely interested in generating business for campaign contributors, in this case the moribund US nuclear power industry.

The deal is corrupt, and dangerous.

Is the Pakistani State Failing???

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See the opening paragraph of the New York Times article on the recent political upheval.

The scenes of carnage in Pakistan this week conjured what one senior administration official on Friday called “the nightmare scenario” for President Bush’s last 15 months in office: Political meltdown in the one country where Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and nuclear weapons are all in play.

In Augues, I referred to Pakistan as an almost failed state. Significant portions of the country are not under government control, the place is lousy with automatic weapons, and there is a significant Islamist movement there.

Pakistan is not fully cooperating because it cannot. It would destabilize the already fragile country, and then its nuclear arsenal would be up for grabs.